Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVII (continued)

[PromisedLand]

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...er=gamesPlayed,gte,40&sort=pointsPer60Minutes

P/60

Marner - 3.47
Matthews - 3.47

G/60

Marner - 0.96
Matthews - 1.76

Gotta factor in the usage too. Mitch plays primarily against oppositions' top lines while Matthews doesn't. Them having same p/60 implies Mitch is more competent at his job as his p/60 does not go down trying to keep oppositions' top line in check

 

[Snip Genos]

I’m starting to worry about this guy now I dont like Nylander anymore because he would rather stay home than play hockey for a bit more money so really hope he signs something soon. I wonder if he would sign at Matthews money but for 8 years? Then we have a chance of that contract looking ok by the time Matthews is up for a new deal and if Marner keeps out scoring him for the rest of the contract then maybe Matthews won’t need a huge raise? I just hope it gets done soon

 

[ULF_55]

But in your example the reduction is applied to everyone equally; its not like you are singling out one person to take the reduction while giving other employee an increase

True, we were thinking about the team, not an individual.

 

[ULF_55]

I’m starting to worry about this guy now I dont like Nylander anymore because he would rather stay home than play hockey for a bit more money so really hope he signs something soon. I wonder if he would sign at Matthews money but for 8 years? Then we have a chance of that contract looking ok by the time Matthews is up for a new deal and if Marner keeps out scoring him for the rest of the contract then maybe Matthews won’t need a huge raise? I just hope it gets done soon

Leafs will have to outbid other teams once Matthews has earned the right to negotiate with other teams as UFA.

 

[ULF_55]

Gotta factor in the usage too. Mitch plays primarily against oppositions' top lines while Matthews doesn't. Them having same p/60 implies Mitch is more competent at his job as his p/60 does not go down trying to keep oppositions' top line in check

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...ter=gamesPlayed,gte,3&sort=pointsPer60Minutes

 

[Snip Genos]

Leafs will have to outbid other teams once Matthews has earned the right to negotiate with other teams as UFA.

Yupp but hopefully he wants to stay a leaf. If not, Dubas better find out before he goes to UFA, can’t lose him for nothing.

 

[Mess]

Matthews camp was able to negotiate far above market value. I find it gross as well... but it's an outlier.

I got good news and bad news .. Dubas broke the CBA.

The bad news - Dubas screwed up the Leafs salary cap with the Matthews contract for an RFA paying top $$ for limited term.

The good news - Dubas didn't only screw the Leafs salary cap with the Matthews contract for an RFA but he altered the entire NHL market landscape and screwed over every other team that is now trying to get their elite RFA signed.

That contract was an outlier.. Was being the key word in the sentence.

Before Dubas there use to be a system in the CBA where a team got 3 years cheap/rookie salary capped ELC years, then 3-5 year cost controllable RFA bridge deals at mid range money $$, then dynasty big money deals at top $$$ on 3rd contracts. See Toews and Kane for examples etc.

Then some GMs understanding how precious their core franchise players were to protect long term, decided to give them "Market Value" coming out of rookie contracts as RFAs, but locking them in for 8 years max term per CBA (buying 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years), skipping the 2nd contracts.. See McDavid and Eichel for examples etc.

Then along comes Dubas and gives Matthews elite money (2nd highest AAV in NHL history), but gets only 5 years (which is ridiculous and outlier) and putting Matthews as a UFA at age 26. So while McDavid and Eichel will still be locked in at $12.5 and $10 mil for multiple more years, Matthews will now demand +$15 mil from not only the Leafs, but 31 other teams as a UFA on the free agent market.

Now Marner and every other RFA wants to be paid big dollars for lowest term possible coming out of ELC, while protecting their costly UFA years for their 3rd contracts, to really strike it rich.

Using the Matthews contract blunder by Dubas, as the new norm and no longer the outlier!!

 

[Notsince67]

Leafs will have to outbid other teams once Matthews has earned the right to negotiate with other teams as UFA.

Yeah...im ok with him moving on if the leafs arent successful and there is a plan to bring home another player who shall remain nameless, a couple of years after that.

 

[weems]

Gotta factor in the usage too. Mitch plays primarily against oppositions' top lines while Matthews doesn't. Them having same p/60 implies Mitch is more competent at his job as his p/60 does not go down trying to keep oppositions' top line in check

Ya and one guy played the entire season with a all world center and the other played with a combination of wingers like Marleau, Kapanen, Johnsson, Ennis etc.

How much would Matthews production jump if he was given a winger in the same category as Tavares?

 

[IPS]

Ya and one guy played the entire season with a all world center and the other played with a combination of wingers like Marleau, Kapanen, Johnsson, Ennis etc.

How much would Matthews production jump if he was given a winger in the same category as Tavares?

2 out of the last 3 years it was actually Matthews who played top competition.

He scored 40 goals as a rookie doing it, AND led the team in scoring.

 

[ULF_55]

Ya and one guy played the entire season with a all world center and the other played with a combination of wingers like Marleau, Kapanen, Johnsson, Ennis etc.

How much would Matthews production jump if he was given a winger in the same category as Tavares?

Matthews - Wheeler?

 

[ottomaddox]

You can believe so but Im fairly confident youd be wrong. The Muskoka 5 came directly from their unwillingness to leave the team and their comfortable cottage country lifestyles apparently. It was a stupid term then and sounds even more ridiculous ridiculous now.

And holy revisionist history on Sundin batman! Not you but the general discussion.

"The District Municipality of Muskoka is a well-known as cottage country, a few hours north of Toronto. Huntsville and Gravenhurst are only 2 of the towns surrounded by innumerable lakes and waterways, forests and rocky shorelines. The moniker ‘Muskoka 5’ implied that veteran players in Toronto were too comfortable, content to play out the season and spend summers by the lake. No one could figure why anyone would pass up a chance to be playing for the Stanley Cup to stick around the Leafs"

https://thehockeywriters.com/the-maple-leafs-and-the-legacy-of-the-muskoka-five/

 

[Notsince67]

Ya and one guy played the entire season with a all world center and the other played with a combination of wingers like Marleau, Kapanen, Johnsson, Ennis etc.

How much would Matthews production jump if he was given a winger in the same category as Tavares?

Not much. Tavares and Matthews are both shoot first players

 

[IPS]

Not much. Tavares and Matthews are both shoot first players

Tavares is a prototypical dual-threat player. He's just as good if not better at playmaking than he is at scoring goals.

 

[IPS]

Since some people still give a lot of if not most of Tavares' goals credit to Marner, I decided to do a quick breakdown of JTs goals last year:

1. Goal #1: Tavares dekes out Habs player while cutting to the middle, snipes it on Price in the slot. - No Marner
2. Tavares follows the rebound off Ward from a point shot, and puts it in the net. - No Marner
3. Redirects a pass in the air from Marner into the net. - Good pass from Marner, mostly JT as it was a redirect in midair.
4. Knocks put out of air from Marner, and snipes one for the hattrick. - Again Marner kept the puck in, but mostly JT with the crazy hand eye and then snipe
5. Marner fakes the shot and passes to JT in the crease. - This was mostly Marner, tap-in from JT
6. Marner passes to JT, who fakes the goalie out and makes a wrap around for the goal. - Was mostly JT here, and Hyman on the forecheck.
7. Marner makes a dirty move, backhands it off the goalie, and JT cleans up. - Credit to Marner, this was mostly him.
8. Marner shoots the puck from far out, and JT deflects it from the low-slot. - Some credit to Marner, but this was mostly JT.
9. Hainsey makes a nice pass to JT for basically an open net on the PP. - No Marner
10. Marner makes a nice pass across the ice to JT for basically an open net/not a tap-in though. - Mostly Marner here.
11. Rielly with the point-shot and a nice deflection from JT in the circle. - No Marner
12. Marner passes it to JT at the blue-line, JT goes around the net, and goes off the dman and in. - No Marner
13. Marner with a nice break who makes a backhand shot, goalie saves it, Marner passes it back, and JT put it in the net after. - Mostly Marner, not a tap-in
14. JT breaks up a pass at opposing blueline, rushes in on a break and snipes. - No Marner
15. Marner dangles his way to the slot but loses the puck, JT comes in and snipes; goalie was in position. - 50/50 credit
16. Matthews with the pass to an open JT at the side of the net. - Marner made the pass to Matthews, but wasn't the pass to JT here
17. Hyman to Marner to an open JT for the tap-in. - Marner deserves the most praise here, but credit to JT for beating his man to put him in good position.
18. Rielly to JT at the top circle, who snipes on the goalie. - No Marner
19. Marner goes around the net and passes it to JT who puts it past the goalie. - Mostly Marner but not a tap-in
20. Gardiner shoots from the point, and JT with the redirect on his backhand. - No Marner
21. 3 on 1. Matthews to Kadri to JT and puts it in. - No Marner
22. JT cleans up the rebound from a Matthews shot. - Marner made the pass to Matthews but it was a basic PP pass, no credit.
23. Nice play by Marner who fakes going around the net and finds JT on the short side. - Credit to Marner but not a tap-in
24. Gardiner point shot tipped in by JT. - No Marner
25. Marner slap pass to Kadri and pucks goes off JT and in. - I guess credit to Marner, but it was a pretty broken play.
26. Jt breaks up the rush, passes to Marner who passes it back at the top circle who snipes it. - This is mostly JT
27. Rielly point shot tipped in by JT. - No Marner
28. Gardiner shoots it and tipped into the goalie by JT, JT grabs the puck and goes around everyone and puts the puck in. - No Marner
29. Marner backhands a pass to Rielly, who fakes the shot and makes the goalie bite and then feeds JT across. - Marner was involved but this was mostly Rielly.
30. Off the draw Marner makes a 5 foot pass to JT, who one times it in. - Marner made the pass, but this was mostly JT's shot.
31. JT receives a broken pass, takes the puck into the zone and snipes one past the goalie. - No Marner
32. Marner makes a dirty move and finds an open JT at the side of the net. - This was mostly Marner
33. Marner crosses with JT, who feeds a little pass to JT who backhands it top shelf. - 50/50 credit
34. Rielly shot blocked, JT picks up the puck in the slot and snipes it in. - No Marner
35. Muzzin point shot redirected in by JT at the net. - No Marner
36. 5 on 3, Marner makes the open pass to JT in the slot who snipes it in. - Marner made the pass but JT was wide open, and the shot was the best part.
37. Point shot tipped by Marner high. Bounces around, goalie thinks he has it, but JT cleans up. - Broken play, credit to JT but neither did much
38. Hyman make the pass to JT at the blue line, who beats the D and then dekes the goalie before putting it in. - No Marner
39. Marner keeps the puck in and then passes to JT who goes down low, and beats the goalie shortside. - Marner made a nice play to keep it in, but I'd give credit to JT here or 50/50
40. Matthews tried finding JT in the slot, pucks makes it way to him and JT puts it in. - No Marner
41. Nylander goes around the world before shooting it off the crossbar, puck bounces off Eichel before JT taps it in. - No Marner, but a tap-in
42. Marner point shot stopped before JT shoots it between the legs. - 50/50 credit, pretty broken play
43. Hyman makes a nice move before making a backhand pass to JT. - No Marner
44. Rielly shoots the puck off the goalie which creates a rebound to JT who puts it into the net. - No Marner
45. Marner shoots the puck off the goalie after a broken play, JT in the right spot for the open net. - Mostly Marner, but not a tap-in
46. Marner crosses with JT while drop passing to him, JT absolute snipes it. - I'd give more credit to JT because of the shot, but it could go 50/50
47. Rielly point shot that goes to JT, who shoots but gets stopped, gets his own rebound and puts it in. - No Marner

- So there we go.

• So 21 goals, Marner wasn't a factor at all.
• 11 goals I'd give credit to mostly Marner; only about 4-5 goals from Marner to JT I'd say were tap-ins
• 15 goals I'd put into the the Marner was involved but it was mostly JT or it was 50/50 credit.

Great breakdown. I've referenced several times that Tavares has finished twice in the top-5 in goals before he came to Toronto. He's known how to score goals at an elite level for a long time. This is a guy who's made a career out of elevating his winger's production. To deny his major role in Marner's career year is just pure stupidity.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I got good news and bad news .. Dubas broke the CBA.

The bad news - Dubas screwed up the Leafs salary cap with the Matthews contract for an RFA paying top $$ for limited term.

The good news - Dubas didn't only screw the Leafs salary cap with the Matthews contract for an RFA but he altered the entire NHL market landscape and screwed over every other team that is now trying to get their elite RFA signed.

That contract was an outlier.. Was being the key word in the sentence.

Before Dubas there use to be a system in the CBA where a team got 3 years cheap/rookie salary capped ELC years, then 3-5 year cost controllable RFA bridge deals at mid range money $$, then dynasty big money deals at top $$$ on 3rd contracts. See Toews and Kane for examples etc.

Then some GMs understanding how precious their core franchise players were to protect long term, decided to give them "Market Value" coming out of rookie contracts as RFAs, but locking them in for 8 years max term per CBA (buying 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years), skipping the 2nd contracts.. See McDavid and Eichel for examples etc.

Then along comes Dubas and gives Matthews elite money (2nd highest AAV in NHL history), but gets only 5 years (which is ridiculous and outlier) and putting Matthews as a UFA at age 26. So while McDavid and Eichel will still be locked in at $12.5 and $10 mil for multiple more years, Matthews will now demand +$15 mil from not only the Leafs, but 31 other teams as a UFA on the free agent market.

Now Marner and every other RFA wants to be paid big dollars for lowest term possible coming out of ELC, while protecting their costly UFA years for their 3rd contracts, to really strike it rich.

Using the Matthews contract blunder by Dubas, as the new norm and no longer the outlier!!

Assuming your analysis is correct (and I don't (entirely) agree - I think the tipping point was Eichel/Draisatl), the fact that you say the entire league has been affected actually looks good on Dubas. While every team is on equal ground wrt salary cap issues, not every team can actually afford the big dollars for these new contracts, and particularly how the Leafs are front loading them. So again, assuming you're correct, Dubas kept his team on par salary cap-wise, while kneecapping numerous cash-strapped opponents in the process. So if you want to go this direction, I say Dubas is a genius.

 

[jfc64]

I'd say GOOD DRAFTING these high paid guys!

 

[Notsince67]

Tavares is a prototypical dual-threat player. He's just as good if not better at playmaking than he is at scoring goals.

yeah...not so much. P1/60 5x5 spiked with Marner. Im not saying that secondary assists aren't somewhat altruistic indicators but they are often just situational.
This kind of claim sounds good but it isn't backed on any evidence

 

[weems]

Not much. Tavares and Matthews are both shoot first players

I'm talking more about giving him someone with the all world talent that helps exemplify his best strengths.

Marner is great. He was amazing last season and I definitely think he drove his line more often than not. I have no problems paying him alot of money and saying he's far better at this stage than Nylander.

But to act like Matthews played with anywhere close to the same level of talent as Marner did is hilarious. Matthews played with Marleau (who should be a 4th liner this season, two second-third liners in Kapanen/Johnsson and another 4th liner in Ennis).

Both great young players but last season Marner played with the much superior running mate.

 

[Stephen]

I got good news and bad news .. Dubas broke the CBA.

The bad news - Dubas screwed up the Leafs salary cap with the Matthews contract for an RFA paying top $$ for limited term.

The good news - Dubas didn't only screw the Leafs salary cap with the Matthews contract for an RFA but he altered the entire NHL market landscape and screwed over every other team that is now trying to get their elite RFA signed.

That contract was an outlier.. Was being the key word in the sentence.

Before Dubas there use to be a system in the CBA where a team got 3 years cheap/rookie salary capped ELC years, then 3-5 year cost controllable RFA bridge deals at mid range money $$, then dynasty big money deals at top $$$ on 3rd contracts. See Toews and Kane for examples etc.

Then some GMs understanding how precious their core franchise players were to protect long term, decided to give them "Market Value" coming out of rookie contracts as RFAs, but locking them in for 8 years max term per CBA (buying 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years), skipping the 2nd contracts.. See McDavid and Eichel for examples etc.

Then along comes Dubas and gives Matthews elite money (2nd highest AAV in NHL history), but gets only 5 years (which is ridiculous and outlier) and putting Matthews as a UFA at age 26. So while McDavid and Eichel will still be locked in at $12.5 and $10 mil for multiple more years, Matthews will now demand +$15 mil from not only the Leafs, but 31 other teams as a UFA on the free agent market.

Now Marner and every other RFA wants to be paid big dollars for lowest term possible coming out of ELC, while protecting their costly UFA years for their 3rd contracts, to really strike it rich.

Using the Matthews contract blunder by Dubas, as the new norm and no longer the outlier!!

The contract that broke the CBA was Jack Eichel riding on the coattails of Connor McDavid.

I think we are at a moment where the NHL doesn't know what direction to go:

Are the Jeff Skinner, John Tavares, Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty, Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky Auston Matthews deals the first in a wave of massive dollar amounts for the better players? Or does the Sebastian Aho deal mean that RFA's like Laine, Marner, Rantanen and Point will come falling back to earth?

If the contracts keep trending up, does this mean you'll see more of those Jason Spezza veteran deals crater to league minimum?

If the RFA's start signing Aho type team friendly deals, do we see top heavy teams like the Leafs fall behind in the standings?

 

[IPS]

yeah...not so much. P1/60 5x5 spiked with Marner. Im not saying that secondary assists aren't somewhat altruistic indicators but they are often just situational.
This kind of claim sounds good but it isn't backed on any evidence

They're often situational when applied to short sample sizes. In Tavares' case, there are no short sample sizes when looking at his playmaking ability. You don't turn Kyle Okposo into a 70-80 point player without elite playmaking.

You don't need to bend over backwards to diminish Tavares' abilities to pump your boy up.

 

[ULF_55]

Great breakdown. I've referenced several times that Tavares has finished twice in the top-5 in goals before he came to Toronto. He's known how to score goals at an elite level for a long time. This is a guy who's made a career out of elevating his winger's production. To deny his major role in Marner's career year is just pure stupidity.

Well, obviously playing with Tavares was a benefit to Marner.

That doesn't mean Marner isn't getting better, but how anyone could suggest Tavares ever needed Marner to score in the 80's is being disingenuous.

Tavares is 28, not 32, and has scored in the 80's 4 times now ... probably due to Okposo.

 

[Legion34]

I got good news and bad news .. Dubas broke the CBA.

The bad news - Dubas screwed up the Leafs salary cap with the Matthews contract for an RFA paying top $$ for limited term.

The good news - Dubas didn't only screw the Leafs salary cap with the Matthews contract for an RFA but he altered the entire NHL market landscape and screwed over every other team that is now trying to get their elite RFA signed.

That contract was an outlier.. Was being the key word in the sentence.

Before Dubas there use to be a system in the CBA where a team got 3 years cheap/rookie salary capped ELC years, then 3-5 year cost controllable RFA bridge deals at mid range money $$, then dynasty big money deals at top $$$ on 3rd contracts. See Toews and Kane for examples etc.

Then some GMs understanding how precious their core franchise players were to protect long term, decided to give them "Market Value" coming out of rookie contracts as RFAs, but locking them in for 8 years max term per CBA (buying 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years), skipping the 2nd contracts.. See McDavid and Eichel for examples etc.

Then along comes Dubas and gives Matthews elite money (2nd highest AAV in NHL history), but gets only 5 years (which is ridiculous and outlier) and putting Matthews as a UFA at age 26. So while McDavid and Eichel will still be locked in at $12.5 and $10 mil for multiple more years, Matthews will now demand +$15 mil from not only the Leafs, but 31 other teams as a UFA on the free agent market.

Now Marner and every other RFA wants to be paid big dollars for lowest term possible coming out of ELC, while protecting their costly UFA years for their 3rd contracts, to really strike it rich.

Using the Matthews contract blunder by Dubas, as the new norm and no longer the outlier!!

How?????

 

[Legion34]

Yeah...im ok with him moving on if the leafs arent successful and there is a plan to bring home another player who shall remain nameless, a couple of years after that.

Most are ok with Mitch moving on for the return. So I’m pretty sure we will have enough for matthews

 

[therealkoho]

what line ? he got maybe 500 k more than kypreos or dreger predicted

well then!
I guess it's all cool then isn't it