Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVII (continued)

[socko]

So the precedent has been set that Dubas pays FAR more money than market value for his star players, due to the Matthews/Nylander dramatic overpayments.

What now?

This just goes on forever?

It’s impossible to be successful in the cap world if everyone is overpaid. So the leafs are just doomed to mediocrity for all eternity due to those overpayments?

What needs to happen for the leafs to start getting their players for fair market value, if not starting now with Marner?

The Leafs are probably doomed for bad contracts until Dubas gets fired. He's done. The players and their agents see him as a joke. They're not wrong.

Point and Rantanen are waiting for Marner to sign because their agents know about Dubas and the Aho contract was damaging to them.

 

[Notsince67]

I wasnt talking about Tavares specifically tho.

I said "if he was given a winger in the same category as Tavares".

Maybe you took that as me saying Tavares or someone thats a shoot first player but I moreso meant giving him a world class winger whos on the same talent level as Tavares is.

Like putting Panarin or Wheeler on Matthews wing. I think his production would have jumped considerably higher under that circumstance vs playing with mid tier talent and arguably two scrubs.

5x5, there is no better playmaking winger than Marner. I could point out that Marner paired with a guy like OVI>Matthews+OVI. Style matters

 

[Nylander88]

That’s a double edge sword he does have to draw the line somewhere,
I’m not sure if picking your highest scoring player who still has room to improve and will probably want to stay forever as the guy to scorn is a good thing.
It’s a lot easier to sign him next time when he hits UFA if he is super happy compaired to deciding it’s payback time.
It’s also a good way to cause animosity between star players, humans get jelly fast

He's already trying to get payback for not signing him last year at his 9m ask for a 60 range point player (at that time, pre-Tavares), and someone who hasn't hit 30goals. And he didn't get his schedule A bonuses. And his daddy thinks he's special. And now the leafs are trying to calmly explain to him that he isn't Auston Matthews. The relationship is already going to **** in a handbasket

 

[Dekes For Days]

Also this narrative that anybody "destroyed the market" is ridiculous and unfounded.

The market is changing because everything came together at the same time. The league had a bunch of elite RFAs with elite production on their ELCs come due right before a new CBA/potential lockout, a new TV deal, and expansion. The ability to project the cap forward is limited right now, so long-term deals are incredibly hard to figure out. RFAs don't want to be locked in when the cap could skyrocket in 2-3 years, but they also don't want to give up guaranteed financial security or the leverage that elite production in a contract year gives them (that they may not have down the road).

 

[Notsince67]

Most are ok with Mitch moving on for the return. So I’m pretty sure we will have enough for matthews

Most aren't ok and an appeal to authority has little to do with the facts. A return will do nothing to incrementally help the leafs

 

[IPS]

5x5, there is no better playmaking winger than Marner. I could point out that Marner paired with a guy like OVI>Matthews+OVI. Style matters

Marner had two guys ahead of him in EV assists.

Tavares had zero guys ahead of him in EV goals.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Habs fan coming in peace. Am wondering what you guys expect to be the shoe to drop in order to sign Marner as obviously right now you don't have the cap space. Is it going to come down to he and Nylander? Or is there another way to clear the necessary room?

 

[Mess]

I fully agree with everything you just wrote.

I have a question though...

Why is it that when one HORRIBLE contract gets signed (Matthews), it becomes the new floor for future rfa’s...

Yet when a great contract is signed (Pastrnak, McDavid, Kucherov), it just doesn’t count as a comparable for some reason?

Wouldn’t the GM’s use the great contracts at leverage, while agents use the horrible contracts as leverage, and they’d meet in the middle at market value?

You're not wrong that is how leverage and contract negotiations generally work.

However there is one key difference in that 30 other teams outside of Toronto, can defend their positions based on not being obligated to go down the Leafs ONLY self inflicted Salary cap hell rabbit hole.

Dubas made Tavares the highest paid UFA in NHL salary cap history and then followed that up by making Matthews the highest paid RFA player on term. When Marner uses his teammates as comparables as the teams leading scorer, Dubas can't point to other teams and say ignore my own contracts as outliers as they should not be used as leverage against me.

If you're in TB and you just signed 128 point league MVP Kucherov to 8 X $9.5 mil and previous year Stamkos a perennial Rocket Richard winner to 8 X $8.5 mil then if your Point/Agent your leverage and teammate contracts work against your own ask..

GMs on Teams that are managing their contracts and salary Cap well have an advantage in negotiations, when using their own contracts or comparable market ones.

Point could sign for $8.5 X 8 today and Marner would still demand (based on Matthews deal) ~ $10.5 mil X 5 years, saying that is Tampa dollars and we want to get paid in Dubas dollars in TO. IMO

 

[Notsince67]

Yes that should matter and I'm not even trying to say Matthews had the better season.

Marner definitely had the better season. He was more productive and stayed healthy for the entire season.

I just think a stat like p/60 and g/60 needs a little context when one player played with by far the better linemate than the other guy in the comparison.

I think a fair evaluation of seasons uses a decision matrix of multivariables. Raw talent is tough to gauge and compare. Some players play at a higher overall average because they are more consistent whereas others have a higher ceiling game to game. I don't know why that is but health and mind must be very important factors.

 

[X66]

There is absolutely no precedent for a 70 point career high forward signing for such a high cap percentage. NONE.

Claiming “he just gets hurt all of the time” is NOT a convincing argument otherwise.

Eichel signed a 10 million dollar contract before hitting 60 points in his career.

Matthews is a better player than Eichel so he obvious got paid more, his goal totals are also off the charts.

No agent is going to get players like Matthews to sign for 8 years now, that’s a thing of the past because guys like Eichel, draisaitl and McDavid made mistakes.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Eichel signed a 10 million dollar contract before hitting 60 points in his career.

Matthews is a better player than Eichel so he obvious got paid more, his goal totals are also off the charts.

No agent is going to get players like Matthews to sign for 8 years now, that’s a thing of the past because guys like Eichel, draisaitl and McDavid made mistakes.

I would have been perfectly fine with Matthews meeting somewhere in the middle between Eichels 10x8 and McDavids 12.5x8, plus cap inflation. (Eichel would be the MUCH closer comparable though.)

Which, wouldn’t you know it, would be somewhere around 11.6x8.

But the 5 year term?

It’s just inexcusable. Knocking off 3 years of term from the Eichce/McDavid contracts should have come with a NOTICEABLE reduction of aav. 11.6x8 was fair. So with the three less years (all UFA years) it should have been closer to 10. Probably even under 10.

 

[Legion34]

It’s not the floor for new RFA but it is the baseline for the size of checks the boss is giving people who work for the Toronto maple leafs,
and any person on this planet who works somewhere where they get paid for raw production would expect to get paid as much as the people they out produce. It would be extreamly upsetting if it happened working anywhere even the NHL

Actually in ontario you CANNOT hold a persons injury or medical history against them. Soooo that’s not true.

Regardless.

If Marner was anywhere near as good as Matthews... would he not be 5th in the league in total goals (1 from third)?

He has a 30 game head start

 

[Kiwi]

See here’s the problem.

You want me to beat up on Marner for simply being in the process of a negotiation in the offseason.

You even call it a contract “dispute.”

Where’s the dispute?

The fact he hasn’t signed what the team offered so far? Keeping company with the +90 NHLers that are still unsigned?

That’s not a dispute good sir.

I would love to know when I wanted you to "beat up" on Marner for using all available leverage to him in negotiations, it's almost like that would never happen because I always write every player should do that

This is a contract "dispute" the two sides have different values on exactly how much they think Marner's labor is worth to the team, pretty much what you will find with any labor "dispute"

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Actually in ontario you CANNOT hold a persons injury or medical history against them. Soooo that’s not true.

Regardless.

If Marner was anywhere near as good as Matthews... would he not be 5th in the league in total goals (1 from third)?

He has a 30 game head start

That’s a very silly argument to make.

So if Matthews only played 10 games the past two seasons due to injury, but with the same p/60, the leafs would still pay him 11.6x5?

It’s just so silly. Ability to say healthy is and always has been part of the equation when it comes to nhl contracts.

 

[Notsince67]

Marner had two guys ahead of him in EV assists.

Tavares had zero guys ahead of him in EV goals.

Marner has zero guys ahead of him for singular year 5x5 primary assists in well over a decade

 

[X66]

I would have been perfectly fine with Matthews meeting somewhere in the middle between Eichels 10x8 and McDavids 12.5x8, plus cap inflation. (Eichel would be the MUCH closer comparable though.)

Which, wouldn’t you know it, would be somewhere around 11.6x8.

But the 5 year term?

It’s just inexcusable. Knocking off 3 years of term from the Eichce/McDavid contracts should have come with a NOTICEABLE reduction of aav. 11.6x8 was fair. So with the three less years (all UFA years) it should have been closer to 10. Probably even under 10.

People need to stop looking at those guys contracts.

Player agents aren’t going to let their guys sign those types of deals anymore.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Marner has zero guys ahead of him for singular year 5x5 primary assists in well over a decade

Sounds pretty unsustainable and not something I'd expect from him going forward

 

[Throw More Waffles]

People need to stop looking at those guys contracts.

Player agents aren’t going to let their guys sign those types of deals anymore.

You are the specific person in this thread that brought up the Eichel comparable to me.

When it didn’t go where you wanted it to, now you’re saying we shouldn’t be using the Eichel comparable?

I don’t know man... seems you’re just spinning everything all around as opposed to just accepting the reality.

 

[IPS]

That’s a very silly argument to make.

So if Matthews only played 10 games the past two seasons due to injury, but with the same p/60, the leafs would still pay him 11.6x5?

It’s just so silly. Ability to say healthy is and always has been part of the equation when it comes to nhl contracts.

Regarding Marner and his abilities, are you worried that 94 points may be his ceiling?

It'd be disastrous to pay him mega-dollars and never see him at that level of point production ever again.

I'm of the opinion that Matthews' very best years are yet to be seen. I'm not so sure about Marner.

 

[member 300185]

Trade him for a boatload and be done with it.

 

[Jeypic]

Habs fan coming in peace. Am wondering what you guys expect to be the shoe to drop in order to sign Marner as obviously right now you don't have the cap space. Is it going to come down to he and Nylander? Or is there another way to clear the necessary room?

They will both be leafs. Dubas promised that to everybody.

 

[X66]

You are the specific person in this thread that brought up the Eichel comparable to me.

When it didn’t go where you wanted it to, now you’re saying we shouldn’t be using the Eichel comparable?

I don’t know man... seems you’re just spinning everything all around as opposed to just accepting the reality.

I brought up Eichel to show you there was precedent for a player not having high point totals overall and signing a massive deal, not my problem you can’t understand that.

The reality is, for what Matthews impact on the ice is, he’s worth his contract and is actually underpaid.

You just don’t understand the current nhl landscape and how good Matthews actually is.

 

[Nineteen67]

Habs fan coming in peace. Am wondering what you guys expect to be the shoe to drop in order to sign Marner as obviously right now you don't have the cap space. Is it going to come down to he and Nylander? Or is there another way to clear the necessary room?

If they don’t already have a framework in place on a deal with Marner, then who knows? There is only one guy unsigned and only X $s available. If they can’t agree on such a simple negation then anything is possible. The biggest question is whether Marner wants to stay.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I brought up Eichel to show you there was precedent for a player not having high point totals overall and signing a massive deal, not my problem you can’t understand that.

The reality is, for what Matthews impact on the ice is, he’s worth his contract and is actually underpaid.

You just don’t understand the current nhl landscape and how good Matthews actually is.

Ah, so only you’re allowed to use the Eichel contract in support of your arguments. Fascinating.

Matthews has three years to show us what he could do. He topped 70 points ONCE with a career high of 73.

 

[MyBudJT]

If they don’t already have a framework in place on a deal with Marner, then who knows? There is only one guy unsigned and only X $s available. If they can’t agree on such a simple negation then anything is possible. The biggest question is whether Marner wants to stay.

Lol... By all accounts Marner lives being a Leaf and wants to stay... it’s not a question at all!