Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVII (continued)

[Legion34]

That’s a very silly argument to make.

So if Matthews only played 10 games the past two seasons due to injury, but with the same p/60, the leafs would still pay him 11.6x5?

It’s just so silly. Ability to say healthy is and always has been part of the equation when it comes to nhl contracts.

You need to read what was wrote. The poster said that in any other business being injured or sick will be held against them.

I’m saying that in any other industry it’s actually written in law that you can’t.

The argument is silly.

Pretending 14.27 is 15 is just nuts

 

[Legion34]

Ah, so only you’re allowed to use the Eichel contract in support of your arguments. Fascinating.

Matthews has three years to show us what he could do. He topped 70 points ONCE with a career high of 73.

And eichel had 3 years to show he could be the second best goal scorer in the league..... he didn’t

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I would have been perfectly fine with Matthews meeting somewhere in the middle between Eichels 10x8 and McDavids 12.5x8, plus cap inflation. (Eichel would be the MUCH closer comparable though.)

Which, wouldn’t you know it, would be somewhere around 11.6x8.

But the 5 year term?

It’s just inexcusable. Knocking off 3 years of term from the Eichce/McDavid contracts should have come with a NOTICEABLE reduction of aav. 11.6x8 was fair. So with the three less years (all UFA years) it should have been closer to 10. Probably even under 10.

Exactly. The aav is fine if the term were higher, or the term fine if the aav were lower. I find it funny people arguing the contract is good, but it's just the term they don't like, when that's the entire point. lol

 

[Nineteen67]

Lol... By all accounts Marner lives being a Leaf and wants to stay... it’s not a question at all!

He may want to or there maybe someone or something he wants changed. Again this is a simple deal and if it’s not already a done deal, then what is the hold up?

 

[Notsince67]

Sounds pretty unsustainable and not something I'd expect from him going forward

Maybe but it is so extraordinary that even regressing would look fantastic

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Maybe but it is so extraordinary that even regressing would look fantastic

True, Marner will be fantastic going forward no doubt. It's not a given he will be that dominant at 5v5 primary point production again though, so paying him like he'll keep it up is a big risk

 

[zeke]

However there is one key difference in that 30 other teams outside of Toronto, can defend their positions based on not being obligated to go down the Leafs ONLY self inflicted Salary cap hell rabbit hole.

the salary cap hell rabbit hole that has the leafs with the best group of elite young talent in the league locked up and no bad contracts on the books? that salary cap hell rabbit hole?

 

[MyBudJT]

He may want to or there maybe someone or something he wants changed. Again this is a simple deal and if it’s not already a done deal, then what is the hold up?

The holdup is that he doesn’t want to be low balled (term or AAV). You can’t fault a guy for that.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You need to read what was wrote. The poster said that in any other business being injured or sick will be held against them.

I’m saying that in any other industry it’s actually written in law that you can’t.

The argument is silly.

Pretending 14.27 is 15 is just nuts

It’s 14.63%

Cap friendly lists every other player that signed mid year/1 year early based on the cap at time of signing. I don’t see why we should switch everything around just for Matthews.

Everybody here still lists McDavid as 16.67, but it should actually be 15.7, if we’re going to go all “Matthews” with him.

 

[Legion34]

My guesses at this point would be

2 x 8
3 x 8.5
4 x 9
5 x 9.5
6 x 10-10.5
7 x 11
8 x 11.5

I think 7-8 are off limits.
1 think 5 is unlikey

If we got to 4 it might turn out to be like 9.316

I would debate between 2-3

 

[Legion34]

It’s 14.63%

Cap friendly lists every other player that signed mid year/1 year early based on the cap at time of signing. I don’t see why
we should switch everything around just for Matthews.

Everybody here still lists McDavid as 16.67, but it should actually be 15.7, if we’re going to go all “Matthews” with him.

Because Matthews signed in February. When the official number had come out?

Either way. 14.63 is not 15

 

[hamzarocks]

And eichel had 3 years to show he could be the second best goal scorer in the league..... he didn’t

The problem here is your valuing goal scoring over point production. Just looking at matthews he wasn't top 5 in total points or ppg over the past 3 years. His goal scoring is very good and elite but his playmaking is no where close to being elite. He lacks behind other elite stars in real production(not p/60, pp/60, a/60 or other similar stats). Dubas has decided to pay an elite goal scorer similar money to the heat point producer in the world( Mcdavid). He gave him 11.634 million for only 5 years term as Matthews was greedy enough to demand 13/14 million on a 8 year deal. Eichel wasnt worth 10 million on his deal at the time of his signing either but his deal was bought with more term and living up to 10 million dollar deal can be done if your a 85+ point player who can show up in the playoffs( eichel is reasonably going to be producing 85+ points moving forward after 81 in 77 this year) but he still has not gotten his team to the playoffs.

For matthews he is in a nearly impossible situation to have his deal be considered a good one. Getting paid the 3rd highest cap hit means you need to be atleast a top 5 point producer (realistically with all the hype Matthews has gotten he should win multiple Ross/harts/rockets). There is no reason to believe that Matthews will be challenging for any trophies next year besides the rocket if healthy. Until he learns to generate more chance for his linemates and becomes a 50+ assist player it will be nearly impossible for him to get 100 points(the minimum level he should be at to see his deal be close to fair).

Matthews deal cant be argued as being a good one or even fair. Matthews like marner/nylander was greedy and asked for a bloated deal that was well ahead of his current worth. He got the deal due to fear from Dubas on the backlash that would come if 34 was left unsigned and was either holding out in the summer or got an offersheet. Dubas paid Matthews more than his worth due matthews draft pedigree and his position not based on what Matthews has been able to accomplish so far in his career.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

And eichel had 3 years to show he could be the second best goal scorer in the league..... he didn’t

Which is why I agree that Matthews should make a bit more than Eichel if at the same term.

Again, Matthews fits in between Eichel and McDavids contracts (much closer to Eichel) if at the 8 year term.

 

[Legion34]

The problem here is your valuing goal scoring over point production. Just looking at matthews he wasn't top 5 in total points or ppg over the past 3 years. His goal scoring is very good and elite but his playmaking is no where close to being elite. He lacks behind other elite starts in real production(not p/60, pp/60, a/60 or other similar stats). Dubas has decided to pay an elite goal scorer similar money to the heat point producer in the world( Mcdavid). He gave him 11.634 million for only 5 years term as Matthews was greedy enough to demand 13/14 million on a 8 year deal. Eichel wasnt worth 10 million on his deal at the time of his signing either but his deal was bought with more term and living up to 10 million dollar deal can be done if your a 85+ point player who can show up in the playoffs( eichel is reasonably going to be producing 85+ points moving forward after 81 in 77 this year) but he still has not gotten his team to the playoffs.

For matthews he is in a nearly impossible situation to have his deal be considered a good one. Getting paid the 3rd highest cap hit means you need to be atleast a top 5 point producer (realistically with all the hype Matthews has gotten he should win multiple Ross/harts/rockets). There is no reason to believe that Matthews will be challenging for any trophies next year besides the rocket if healthy. Until he learns to generate more chance for his linemates and becomes a 50+ assist player it will be nearly impossible for him to get 100 points(the minimum level he should be at to see his deal be close to fair). Matthews deal cant be argued as being a good one or even fair. Matthews like marner/nylander was greedy and asked for a bloated deal that was well ahead of his current worth. He got the deal due to fear from Dubas on the backlash that would come if 34 was left unsigned and was either holding out in the summer or got an offersheet. Dubas paid Matthews more than his worth due matthews draft pedigree and his position not based on what Matthews has been able to accomplish so far in his career.

Because goal scorers have ALWAYS got more?

You think Rick Nash got paid like a 50-60 pt player?


Because Kyle dubas specifically said he paid more because of his goals.

The idea that being the second best goal scorer in the league and of the past 25 years on their elc should somehow be compared based on assists just insane.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Keep this about Marner please

 

[Legion34]

Which is why I agree that Matthews should make a bit more than Eichel if at the same term.

Again, Matthews fits in between Eichel and McDavids contracts (much closer to Eichel) if at the 8 year term.

So just to be clear..... you think the difference between the 5th (1 from 3) and 46 th goal scorer is “a little bit more”

Wouldn’t a much better goal scorer get more than a little bit more.

How can you honestly not see that. They aren’t even remotely close to comparable at this point

 

[IPS]

Because goal scorers have ALWAYS got more?

You think Rick Nash got paid like a 50-60 pt player?


Because Kyle dubas specifically said he paid more because of his goals.

The idea that being the second best goal scorer in the league and of the past 25 years on their elc should somehow be compared based on assists just insane.

I'm all good and well with the hypothetical Matthews numbers IF we actually saw him under a coach who will actually give him the minutes to maximize his potential production.

But no, Dubas decided to keep the same f***ing coach who intentionally limits his offensive usage.

I'm so over these hypothetical numbers for Matthews at this point.

 

[Legion34]

I'm all good and well with the hypothetical Matthews numbers IF we actually saw him under a coach who will actually give him the minutes to maximize his potential production.

But no, Dubas decided to keep the same ****ing coach who intentionally limits his offensive usage.

I'm so over these hypothetical numbers for Matthews at this point.

What is hypothetical about being the fifth highest goal scorer (1 from 3) despite missing 34 games. He played 25-35 less games and scored 1 less than top 3

 

[hamzarocks]

Because goal scorers have ALWAYS got more?

You think Rick Nash got paid like a 50-60 pt player?


Because Kyle dubas specifically said he paid more because of his goals.

The idea that being the second best goal scorer in the league and of the past 25 years on their elc should somehow be compared based on assists just insane.

Dubas was wrong for saying he paid
more for goals. An example of a higher point producer who got paid more than a better goal scorer would be Eric Staal vs Alex semin

06/07-07/08 Semin stars were
140 gp/64 goals/115 points.

Gpg= 0.457, apg=0.364, ppg= 0.821

He got a 2 year bridge deal worth 4.6 million and was 9.15% of cap at the time

Staal from 06/07-07/08
164 gp/68 goals/152 points

Gpg= 0.414, apg=0.512, ppg= 0.927

Staal had a extra year on his 3 year bridge but after the 08/09 season (put up 40g and 75 points to semins 34 g and 79 points in 62 games). He got after this deal 8.25 million on a long term deal which was 14.55% of the salary cap at the time. The higher scoring goal scorer got less money than the more productive point producer.

Your probably going to say that Staal wa sa franchise center and deserved more than the winger and that's fair in this case but semin was an elite game breaking goal scorer from 06-10 and his pay wasnt really that reflective of his overall abilities as a goal scorer

 

[Suntouchable13]

I am kinda ready to move on from him. I am sick of this kind of attitude these players have. Like the team can't function without a Marner or a Rantanen. Gimme a break. Sign already, what are they waiting for? Teams are already offering these guys the moon, what else do they want?? I don't give a f*** if Marner never plays a game in a Leafs uni again. Sick of this BS.

 

[Notsince67]

True, Marner will be fantastic going forward no doubt. It's not a given he will be that dominant at 5v5 primary point production again though, so paying him like he'll keep it up is a big risk

Not buying this. I watch all those games this year and he didn't look lucky. He looked great. If he can translate some of those primary assists for goals, he will hit another level if his total points don't regress.
Even Jagr wasn't putting up big goals until year 6 ( he started young so it is understandable).

 

[Dayjobdave]

I would have been perfectly fine with Matthews meeting somewhere in the middle between Eichels 10x8 and McDavids 12.5x8, plus cap inflation. (Eichel would be the MUCH closer comparable though.)

Which, wouldn’t you know it, would be somewhere around 11.6x8.

But the 5 year term?

It’s just inexcusable. Knocking off 3 years of term from the Eichce/McDavid contracts should have come with a NOTICEABLE reduction of aav. 11.6x8 was fair. So with the three less years (all UFA years) it should have been closer to 10. Probably even under 10.

I don’t really have a problem with the term. I’d prefer 8, but I do remember a time when players felt risk too. If Matthews isn’t awesome over the next 5, we have an out and the kid from Newmarket can come and give it a shot.

The connection to Marner is a flaw on the Leafs part. It didn’t seem to occur to them that Mariners camp would use Mathews as a comparable. Oops

 

[PromisedLand]

Yes, let's factor in that Marner played with Tavares instead of two 40-point rookies; a difference that far outweighed the difference in quality of competition they faced.

And if we are factoring in quality of competition, Marner falls way behind over their ELCs. Not to mention the greater responsibilities in those match-ups as a C.

Taking a one year sample are we?

Marner plays more important situations and plays on PK; Marner facing oppositions' top lines and still putting up points while keeping them off the board is more important than Matthews playing against lower competition with offensive wingers

 

[PromisedLand]

Teams generally pair their shutdown line and top pairing against Matthews while Babs matches the JT line + Top pairing against oppositions top line. They both have difficult usage but for different reasons.

shut down lines don't usually have elite forward group and potentially leak goals so while overall marners production is better matthews production in goals/60 is a result of not facing against top lines.

Also, 2 seasons ago Marner played in a match up role with Kadri and Marleau and scored at a tremendous pace

 

[socko]

shut down lines don't usually have elite forward group and potentially leak goals so while overall marners production is better matthews production in goals/60 is a result of not facing against top lines.

Also, 2 seasons ago Marner played in a match up role with Kadri and Marleau and scored at a tremendous pace

I think the defenseman you would put out against the Leafs would be pretty easy to decide. Marner has a muffin shot and Tavares is primarily a garbage goal scorer so you can put out a Chara against them and he can be effective. Matthews is more of a shooter and you might want a more mobile defensman out there that can take his shot away from him.