Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[diceman934]

Nope

Babcock wanted Hanifin period.

Dubas wanted the big center.

 

[Kiwi]

I believe that it will be at least 9 on a 3 year deal. Things are changing. Mathews signed for 11.634 for 5 years. So 2.634 per less on a 3 year deal.

Why are the Leafs bending over and taking that exactly? I'd rather sit him until he's 27 than do that and i wouldn't be shocked if Leafs management felt the same way

You make it seem like the Leafs are his *****, they don't value him the way you obviously do and they have indicated that numerous times

 

[PromisedLand]

If Marner truly wants to be a Leaf, he better sign a contract real soon. Enough of this B.S.

I think Dubas should be soliciting trade offers for him since he and his camp have not shown any commitment and are sitting back waiting for an offer sheet.

I'd love to see how Marner performs without having Tavares inflate his numbers!

As frustrated as I am with Marner not signing yet there are other RFAs like Point, Rantanen, Laine etc... who are also unsigned so there is that

On top of that there is no denying that Tavares helped Marner's production and I have seen charts and graphs where people are apparently comparing Matthews and Marner but IMO that kind of analysis is not complete.

The thing is that Matthews has always had the luxury of playing in the squad where Marner is playing so opposition has to plan for both the lines; when Matthews is out injured most of the focus goes on JT-Marner line; so Marner driving the offense while facing a high QoC with not having the luxury of having Matthews in the line up is important.

To simply put:

- Marner produces even when Matthews is not in the line up and faces higher competitions and no match-up issues for the opposition since they can focus solely on that line

- Matthews has always had the luxury of playing with marner in the side creating match-up problems for opposition while getting relatively easier match ups than mitch

Just FYI I am not suggesting that Marner is worth 11M AAV; however, Dubas giving 11 AAV to Matthews on only a 5 year term was a HUGE mistake and it is now coming into play

 

[Peasy]

Babcock wanted Hanifin period.

Dubas wanted the big center.

Got a source on that or are you just pulling that out of thin air?

 

[diceman934]

Why are the Leafs bending over and taking that exactly? I'd rather sit him until he's 27 than do that and i wouldn't be shocked if Leafs management felt the same way

You make it seem like the Leafs are his *****, they don't value him the way you obviously do and they have indicated that numerous times

They bent over for the Mathews contract and they will have to pay up for Marner. He is not signing a 8 year deal with no team as he saw just what Mathews got for 5 years.
I say they most he signs for in years is 6 and the minimum will be 10.5. Per

 

[diceman934]

Got a source on that or are you just pulling that out of thin air?

Not pulling it out of thin air.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

As frustrated as I am with Marner not signing yet there are other RFAs like Point, Rantanen, Laine etc... who are also unsigned so there is that

On top of that there is no denying that Tavares helped Marner's production and I have seen charts and graphs where people are apparently comparing Matthews and Marner but IMO that kind of analysis is not complete.

The thing is that Matthews has always had the luxury of playing in the squad where Marner is playing so opposition has to plan for both the lines; when Matthews is out injured most of the focus goes on JT-Marner line; so Marner driving the offense while facing a high QoC with not having the luxury of having Matthews in the line up is important.

To simply put:

- Marner produces even when Matthews is not in the line up and faces higher competitions and no match-up issues for the opposition since they can focus solely on that line

- Matthews has always had the luxury of playing with marner in the side creating match-up problems for opposition while getting relatively easier match ups than mitch

Just FYI I am not suggesting that Marner is worth 11M AAV; however, Dubas giving 11 AAV to Matthews on only a 5 year term was a HUGE mistake and it is now coming into play

I would say that Marner got significantly easier matchups than Matthews for their first 2 seasons on average while the 3rd season JT+Marner took the hardest matchups.

 

[Notsince67]

As frustrated as I am with Marner not signing yet there are other RFAs like Point, Rantanen, Laine etc... who are also unsigned so there is that

On top of that there is no denying that Tavares helped Marner's production and I have seen charts and graphs where people are apparently comparing Matthews and Marner but IMO that kind of analysis is not complete.

The thing is that Matthews has always had the luxury of playing in the squad where Marner is playing so opposition has to plan for both the lines; when Matthews is out injured most of the focus goes on JT-Marner line; so Marner driving the offense while facing a high QoC with not having the luxury of having Matthews in the line up is important.

To simply put:

- Marner produces even when Matthews is not in the line up and faces higher competitions and no match-up issues for the opposition since they can focus solely on that line

- Matthews has always had the luxury of playing with marner in the side creating match-up problems for opposition while getting relatively easier match ups than mitch

Just FYI I am not suggesting that Marner is worth 11M AAV; however, Dubas giving 11 AAV to Matthews on only a 5 year term was a HUGE mistake and it is now coming into play

You've convinced me. Lets call it a day

 

[Kiwi]

They bent over for the Mathews contract and they will have to pay up for Marner. He is not signing a 8 year deal with no team as he saw just what Mathews got for 5 years.
I say they most he signs for in years is 6 and the minimum will be 10.5. Per

They gave Matthews a ridiculous contract, I'm not even going to debate that but what makes you think they haven't learnt from there mistakes and won't do the same thing with Marner? I'm happy they may be learning at last

What's his leverage to get over 10.5M for 6 years exactly? There doesn't seem to be an offersheet out there right now so why are the Leafs giving him everything he wants?

 

[Mr Hockey]

I'm curious what this Marner thread would have read without diceman and notsince67, would have been basically a trash Marner thread?

 

[PromisedLand]

I would say that Marner got significantly easier matchups than Matthews for their first 2 seasons on average while the 3rd season JT+Marner took the hardest matchups.

The first season with JVR-Bozak-Marner line yes I would agree; but in the second season from Dec or Jan onwards when he was put with Kadri and Marleau; he was basically playing against oppositions' top lines and also producing

 

[Stephen]

I'm curious what this Marner thread would have read without diceman and notsince67, would have been basically a trash Marner thread?

And it would be fair. Here we have the hometown guy with the most standoffish and hostile negotiation out of any Leaf basically upending Shanahan's notion that it's a privilege to be a Leaf and we want people who want to be here.

 

[Kiwi]

I'm curious what this Marner thread would have read without diceman and notsince67, would have been basically a trash Marner thread?

Yeah because the Nylander thread was full of sunshine and light

No matter how you want to look at this people are over this **** and the more aggressive the Marner side is the more it pisses people off, I love Marner as a player and Leaf but I'm not going to pretend I like how this is going down

They threatened a league wide tour stumping for an offersheet ffs, there is no way anybody can defend that little bit of happy fun times

 

[Babcocks Marner]

First of all, what bias? Marner is my favorite player on the team. Second, don't talk about bias in a post where you move the goalposts from being about setting career seasons to whether those points were ES or PP, goals or assists.

Your post was about career years. I gave context to that. If you want to talk about something else, like Marner's effect on his linemates, then I'm up for that. And I quite frankly think it would make for a better argument in his favor.


It sure is. I didn't want to diminish Marner there.

He has been a terrific boost for his linemates through his career so far. Obviously, considering what kind of player he is. The best way to illustrate that isn't by talking about linemates having career years in points, when that is mostly by the slimmest of margins.

Move the goal posts? To facts?
You tried to spin it like the career highs were just a few points here and there with ZERO context.

Obviously JVR playing 5min more a game is a major factor as to why the 2 seasons are even close. It's a massive deviation from the norm.

Marner career high 94 Points
Matthews career high 73 Points
At the same age (4 month diff.) Marner has a career high of 21 points over Matthews.
It's the same disingenuity as claiming JVR had 1 less point in 13/14. Both are true statements, yet paint a narrow picture.

 

[Duffman955]

Marner played with Tavares

Matthew's played with Kapanen

Huge huge difference

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I generally disagree on Tavares set precedent, 1. but I do agree the moment we signed him is when we were headed for trouble. It was clear the cap would be a very significant looming challenge at that point. This said, Tavares being a UFA meant a) we were in theory in a bidding war to get him and b) we were buying entirely UFA years. His contract shouldn't have been the catalyst for what RFA asks would then become. I think the 2. contracts that "broke" RFA second deals so to speak very clearly can be tracked back to Draisaitl & Eichel. We are witnessing a shift and I firmly believe it started there. Matthews' contract compounded the issue by not requiring him to sign 8 years to get the full payday.

3. I think anything up to around ~10.5-11M for even 5/6 years and you have to make the deal. You don't allow yourself to lose a player like Marner, you just don't.

1. Ya, I think so too. And, you'd hope/think that Dubas and company realized that too. I guess they felt it was better to lose a couple of forwards.

2. You could be right about. Maybe Draisaitl & Eichel's contracts were where things started. I still think Marner would be looking more at Tavares, Nylander and Matthews because they are closer to home so to speak and on the same team. I think it would be easy to overthink and complicate this when the simple and more obvious factors before our eyes are what drove things.

3. I guessed it was $10.m for 5 years a few months ago. I called a six year term a home team discount. I could se that too. I wouldn't have called it anything more than a guess or hunch though. The only thing that has me thinking is that if both sides have really dug in their heels, maybe they opt for a short term contract like 3 years so that folks can save face and just move on.

 

[Superstar]

Dubas had to realize what marners ask would be after he gave that contract to AM

The bolded is why when Bergevin offer-sheeted Aho, he tried to keep the AAV reasonable and front load the crap out of it. He can live with front loading contracts going forward, what he could not do was overpay Aho on AAV by $2M knowing he would set a precedent for when guys like Kotkaniemi and Poehling come off ELC in 2 years and even Suzuki in 3. If one of those guys becomes elite he knows he can't set a precedent of overpaying elite. He could have added $2M to the Aho AAv and kept compensation at 2 first a second and a third. It would have increased his chances that Carolina doesn't match but it would have cost him way more than $2M a year into the future, even if Carolina still matches. Bergevin got laughed at for that offersheet attempt but it probably helped out a lot of GM's including Waddell and himself.

In hindsight, if Dubas had taken the risk of both Marner and Matthews becoming RFA on July 1 he would have been in a much better position to use Aho as a comparable for both now and probably could have got both done for $18-19M total. Hindsight is 20/20 though and toothpaste is hard to get back in the tube.

I don't think Dubas would be in a better situation...he would be in a nightmarish situation because Matthews would have received offersheets in the $13 million plus salary range from multiple teams...a big, elite goal-scoring franchise #1 centre who scored 40 goals as a rookie...sign me up!

 

[Duffman955]

Aho went for a good cap hit.

If Rantanen signs something close, Marner will have 0 leverage

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Yeah because the Nylander thread was full of sunshine and light

No matter how you want to look at this people are over this **** and the more aggressive the Marner side is the more it pisses people off, I love Marner as a player and Leaf but I'm not going to pretend I like how this is going down

They threatened a league wide tour stumping for an offersheet ffs, there is no way anybody can defend that little bit of happy fun times

It's July and the season is nowhere near getting started yet. Relax.

 

[Superstar]

A lot of signings today. I guess Marner turned down all his offersheets at once.

Only those $13 million dollar long term ones since he wants to stay in Toronto...

 

[Stephen]

I don't think Dubas would be in a better situation...he would be in a nightmarish situation because Matthews would have received offersheets in the $13 million plus salary range from multiple teams...a big, elite goal-scoring franchise #1 centre who scored 40 goals as a rookie...sign me up!

Matthews is clearly more valuable than Marner if you consider that another team would likely be more motivated to offer sheet Matthews than Marner at crazy money.

 

[Bomber0104]

Nylander, his agent, as well as Matthew's and his all managed to keep their mouths shut. That's why theres a difference.

Ferris went on TSN radio before the season had even ended and publicly trashed the Matthew's deal. It's fairly obvious where these leaks are coming from to anyone not keepinv their head in the sand

Anything "leaked" to the media for reporting has literally no bearing on the negotiation and has nothing to do with you as a fan.

But I mean if it riles you up that bad, continue spazzing on forums and Twitter.

That'll show em....

 

[Superstar]

Marner was moved in to replace Komarov and salvaged Kadri’s season from a career worst slump of 2 points in 20 games. Kadri goes on a tear.

Next season, Marner plays with JT and JT has the best year of his career.

Funny that some of you can’t see the common thread there with this playmaker we have.

To add some context...Tavares finished 1 point behind Benn for the Art Ross with lesser points...scoring is up, so you could call it a career year, but it's only 2 more points than his previous career high...like 2.3% more...meanwhile Marner had a career high of over 36% more than his previous year. Tavares was also a Hart finalist. Has Marner ever been nominated for the league MVP or finished 2nd in the Art Ross race? Marner is playing with an elite franchise #1 centre. Once the Leafs signed Tavares last July and news leaked that Babcock would be playing Marner on his wing, I thought, and so did many that Marner's numbers would skyrocket...and they did.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I believe that it will be at least 9 on a 3 year deal. Things are changing. Mathews signed for 11.634 for 5 years. So 2.634 per less on a 3 year deal.

except marner isn't matthews

 

[Notsince67]

I've been wondering what it would take next year to appease the masses as far as Marner point production should he get 10.5MM x 6
This last year stats are
82 Games, 26 Goals, 68 assists, 94 points

We all know Marners goals need to go up and there are period adjusted point considerations. I wont bias the take so I leave it up to others to decide.
I'm thinking closer to 33 goals and 100 points and 67 assists. I think I'm being rough on him but other people might not think this.
Haters are going to hate but they will likely go the way of Minus Mitch...likely abandoning their account if Marner hits these number
Interested in people's opinion


Here are some Winger 1st & second year rfa stats
Kane cap adj salary 9.04MM x 5
1. 73 Games, 27 Goals, 46 assists, 73 points
2. 82 Games, 23 Goals, 43 assists 66 points

Rick Nash cap adj salary 11.3MM x 5
1. 54 Games, 31 goals, 23 assists, 54 points
2. 75 games, 27 goals, 30 assists, 57 points

Thomas Vanek cap adj salary 11.6mm x 7
1. 82 Games, 36 Goals, 28 assists, 64 points
2. 73 Games, 40 Goals, 24 Assists, 54 points

Ilya Kovalchuk cap adj salary 13.4MM x 5
1. 78 Games, 52 goals, 42 assists, 98 points
2. 82 Games, 42 goals, 34 assists, 76 points

Nikita Kucherov cap adj salary 5.3MM x 3
1. 77 Games, 30 goals, 36 assists, 66 points
2. 74 Games, 40 Goals, 45 assists, 85 points

For poops and giggles
Alex Ovechkin cap adj salary 13.7MM x 13
1. 82 games, 65 goals, 47 Assists, 112 points
2. 79 games, 56 goals, 54 assists, 110 points