1. You guys may entertain the thought that the Dubes didn't get where he is today by ranking players based on points or points per game. (and you might want to ask yourself why you'd want a guy in charge of $50m decisions ranking players based on a 100yr old stat that has no context and arbitrarily decided that 2nd assists are worth the same as goals).
2. In your professional expertise you may think Dubas is a dummy for not just ranking players on points or PPG, and you are welcome do disagree, but you have to accept that he doesn't. These aren't the exact stats Dubas looks at, but they're certainly closer to the kind of thing he looks at, and it illustrates perfectly how each leaf has been valued:
Here is the ELC performance of all $5+m (or expected $5+m) forwards, in the last 3 years (including this one), sorted into approximate order and approximate groupings:
C McDavid (22, 12.5): 222gms, ES 16:13 (A+ qoc), 2.93p/60, 2.27p1/60, +3.5cfrel, +7.5xgfrel ---- PP 2:57, 5.85p/60, 3.20p1/60 -- PK 0:56
C Matthews (22, 11.6): 232gms, ES 15:13 (A qoc), 2.60p/60, 2.29p1/60, +0.8cfrel, +2.2xgfrel --- PP 2:22, 6.31p/60, 4.90p1/60 -- PK 0:01
W Marner (22, ????): 261gms, ES 14:19 (A qoc), 2.33p/60, 1.90p1/60, -0.5cfrel, -0.0xgfrel ------ PP 2:21, 7.02p/60, 4.59p1/60 -- PK 0:30
C Point (23, ????): 250gms, ES 14:59 (A qoc), 2.20p/60, 1.77p1/60, +0.4cfrel, +0.8xgfrel -------- PP 2:39, 5.79p/60, 3.44p1/60 -- PK 0:48
W Pastrnak (21, 6.7): 178gms, ES 13:46 (B+ qoc), 2.20p/60, 1.74p1/60, +3.9cfrel, +4.1xgfrel --- PP 1:45, 5.76p/60, 4.22p1/60 --- PK 0:01
W Rantanen (23, ???): 246gms, ES 15:07 (A+ qoc), 1.98p/60, 1.44p1/60, +1.7cfrel, -1.0xgfrel -- PP 3:29, 5.67p/60, 4.20p1/60 -- PK 0:01
C/W Aho (22, 8.5): 256gms, ES 14:40 (A qoc), 2.00p/60, 1.52p1/60, +2.1cfrel, +1.4xgfrel ------ PP 2:38, 5.07p/60, 3.47p1/60 -- PK 0:32
C/W Drai (22, 8.5): 204gms, ES 14:08 (A qoc), 2.04p/60, 1.50p1/60, +2.1cfrel, +3.2xgfrel ------ PP 2:34, 5.04p/60, 4.00p1/60 -- PK 0:12
C/W Nylander (22, 7.0): 198gms, ES 13:45 (B+ qoc), 2.09p/60, 1.54p1/60, +2.4cfrel, +2.0xgfrel - PP 2:14, 5.71p/60, 4.62p1/60 -- PK 0:01
W Ehlers (22, 6.0): 251gms, ES 13:52 (B+ qoc), 2.00p/60, 1.60p1/60, +2.1cfrel, +0.2xgfrel ----- PP 2:15, 3.73p/60, 2.77p1/60 --- PK 0:01
W Connor (23, ???): 201gms, ES 14:09 (A qoc), 2.00p/60, 1.60p1/60, -2.1cfrel, -2.6xgfrel ----- PP 2:44, 3.71p/60, 2.73p1/60 --- PK 0:20
C Eichel (22, 10.0): 209gms, ES 15:19 (B+ qoc), 1.88p/60, 1.44p1/60, -0.1cfrel, +0.1xgfrel ----- PP 3:10, 5.69p/60, 3.79p1/60 --- PK 0:28
C Larkin (22, 6.1): 246gms, ES 14:18 (B+ qoc), 1.86p/60, 1.43p1/60, +0.9cfrel, -2.1xgfrel ------ PP 1:58, 2.34p/60, 1.72p1/60 --- PK 0:46
W Meier (23, 6.0): 228gms, ES 13:20 (B+ qoc), 1.92p/60, 1.48p1/60, +3.2cfrel, +4.3xgfrel ----- PP 1:21, 3.49p/60, 3.29p1/60 --- PK 0:21
W Laine (21, ????): 260gms, ES 13:40 (B qoc), 1.86p/60, 1.57p1/60, -3.4cfrel, -6.6xgfrel ------ PP 3:03, 5.31p/60, 4.40p1/60 --- PK 0:01
C Schmaltz (23, 5.9): 183gms, ES 13:15 (B qoc), 1.86p/60, 1.41p1/60, -2.5cfrel, -3.0xgfrel ---- PP 2:09, 3.37p/60, 1.99p1/60 --- PK 0:38
1) There are two clear outliers on this list by these numbers, which I would probably just throw out when it comes to comparables:
- Pastrnak seems to be well underpaid, and probably should have a caphit a couple mil higher. There is something to be said, though, about him possibly padding some numbers thanks to being on one of the most dominant lines in hockey. But he was even younger than most of these guys when he signed so this one just looks like a steal to me.
- Eichel seems to be well overpaid. He is probably a couple mil overpaid. It could be argued that the Sabres kinda had to overpay him to make sure he stayed, though. Still, though, this shows the importance of being a true center.
2) Neither of the Leafs already signed are overpaid in the least. Their caphit slots in perfectly with their performance:
- Matthews' performance is simply far, far better than anyone there other than McDavid. It's not even a close call - he's just been at a level his entire ELC that the others have only touched on.
- Nylander performed at a very similar level as Drai and Aho on their ELC's. Drai and Aho, though, have a better case to make that they are legit centers, and as we know, centers get more than wingers, so their 1.5m higher caphit makes sense. Willy is just a bit more impressive than Ehlers there, and has more C potential, so the slightly higher caphit there also makes sense.
3) How do the current RFA slot in here?
- Laine really shouldn't be paid more than $6m, in my opinion, but I'm sure he's asking for much more. He's one of the few 21yr olds here so that's a boost, but even his offensive numbers aren't as good as most of the guys here, and his possession metrics are horrific.
- Connor as well I think the Jets really want to keep under Ehler's number. Their production is identical, but even though connor's qoc is tougher, it's still too huge a gap in possession numbers for my tastes. Also, Connor is a year older, making those numbers a bit less impressive. I'm sure the Jets really, really want to keep these guys under $6m and IMO they're right on both of them.
- Rantanen is a really tough call. First thing to notice is that he's one of the "old" guys on this list, having no teenager years included in those numbers. But, on the other hand, he has played a legit topline role against topline competition consistently, unlike many of the others. BUT, more importantly for me, and probably surprising to some, is that his offensive productivity isn't as good as you'd think it was just looking at his standard numbers. And given that he's strictly a winger, I really wouldn't want to give him as much as Aho and Drai got. Heck I'd have a hard time giving him much more than Willy got.
- Point is really damn good, though again he's one of the "old" guys with no teenage years counted in these numbers. Still, his production is a clear step up here from the bulk of the guys, and he playes legit topline C minutes against top compeition, and holds his own possession wise. 8.5 would have to be the floor here based on comparables I think, but I think 9.5 would probably be deserved.
- Marner is awesome. His production is a clear step above everyone here not named McDavid or Matthews. He's also not one of the old guys, and (kinda) holds his own possession wise against top competition. Also, he's a pure winger, not a center. And, of course, he is a clear and large step down from Matthews productivity wise. Marner has only come close to matthews-level productivity in one of the three years, and that's the one he spent fulltime with Tavares. Looking at where he sits on this list, you can see why Dubas places his value at around $9.5m. And I'm sure, to get a deal done, Dubas would be willing to go to $10m or even a tick over and still feel ok with the deal, based on these comparables.
So while you may, in your professional experience, disagree with the kind of numbers Dubas values, and would prefer that the guy in charge of our billion dollar franchise would just sort players based on points already, you still should make yourself aware of the kind of numbers he has earned his way into the top job in the hockey world based on, and see how they perfectly explain Matthews' contract, Willy's contract, and the $10.4m in capsapce he has left himself to sign Marner.
Call Dubas an idiot if you'd like for not understanding that all he should be looking at is POINTS and nothing else when making $50m decisions for our team, but understand that the valuations make perfect sense from the data he values.
As for Marner, there's no reason to get all pissy and hate him for trying to bargain for more money. He has every right to do that, and no other big RFA has signed a deal yet, so there's nothing to criticize. That being said, I highly doubt that Marner will in the end refuse to accept being the 2nd highest paid winger in hockey, and the highest winger 2nd contract ever, and the 3rd highest 2nd contract ever behind only McDavid and Matthews. He'll sign for about $10m which will still be a bit of an overpay but should be fine.
