Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[ajp4to]

Actually the history of the leafs has been the opposite - paying players for what they already accomplished, not for what they were likely to accomplish going forward. Overpaying bottom liners instead of paying for elite talent.

Finally, for the first time in my life, the leafs have a team that has dumped all the overpaid crap at the bottom of the roster and has somehow managed to lock in the most impressive group of young elite talent in hockey under the cap.

It's pre5ty damn exciting.

I don't disagree with you, but even with this wealth of talent, I feel they have managed to screw it up. Let's hope that you are right; but unfortunately, all I've seen in the past 50 years is overpaying for the past, and hoping for unrealized contracts for the future. The constant I see with the leafs (when you can print money without consequences) is over-estimating every players value. Doesn't even matter if they have played in TO or not, let's sign them and hope they are what we think they could be.

 

[zeke]

I was more impressed with his reel than his production, playing in the KHL is always a bit of an asterisk for me because you get weird veteran-heavy usage, a league full of Babcock style coaches. I'm hopeful that he's a better version of Zach Hyman and the risk is low. The reel is below if you haven't seen it, that's what changed me from meh to hopeful on him

Yeah I'm iffy on those highlights. Not sure if any of those skills that look impressive there - skating, size, hands, shot - are actually above average at the NHL level.

We'll see.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Yeah I'm iffy on those highlights. Not sure if any of those skills that look impressive there - skating, size, hands, shot - are actually above average at the NHL level.

We'll see.

The speed, shot and tenacity look above NHL average to me in a slightly above average size package. It looks like he thinks fast enough to play though which is always the big item to me, that with speed could be a good player. I won't be surprised if we look at him and Johnsson as similar assets after this season, and won't be surprised if he bombs out of the NHL either, but the price and the risk are low

 

[CDN24]

you can forget it if you want.

Dubas and I won't though.

Looks like you forgot the rest of my reply on actual GF%. Maybe you and Dubas forgot about those. You and dubas can consider expected GF all you want along with your expected cup. Be warned though, those GMs who care about actual results may be better positioned to win an actual cup.

Here was the full reply if GF% are not beneath you guys

Forget expected GF%, if we want to talk results what are the real ones GF%. And what about guys he acquired to replace these non-stat darlings Speezza 5-5 GF % 49.10%, Kerfoot 46.38%

Here are some of the the Leafs actual GF% last year

Gardiner 61.46%
Johnsson 61.18%
Marner 59.85%
Tavares 59.71%
Lindholm 57.50%
Hainsey 56.39%
Kadri 52.86%

Matthews 48.76%

May have got rid of some of the better performers in their role​

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I heard he was a tough son of a gun to play against. But video looks more like a soft player who is taller than other soft defenders. We will see what happens when he goes into the corner with a bigger tougher NHL defender. Until then who knows just another guy trying out.

 

[ajp4to]

Yeah I'm iffy on those highlights. Not sure if any of those skills that look impressive there - skating, size, hands, shot - are actually above average at the NHL level.

We'll see.

At least this is "let's see" contract. If it doesn't work out the leafs won't have to give up a first-rounder to get rid of it. hopefully, the Clarkson, Marleau, Zeitsev contacts are the thing of the past. Not sure they are with the Nylander, and what could be the Marner contract...

 

[Martin Skoula]

Looks like you forgot the rest of my reply on actual GF%. Maybe you and Dubas forgot about those. You and dubas can consider expected GF all you want along with your expected cup. Be warned though, those GMs who care about actual results may be better positioned to win an actual cup.

Here was the full reply if GF% are not beneath you guys

Forget expected GF%, if we want to talk results what are the real ones GF%. And what about guys he acquired to replace these non-stat darlings Speezza 5-5 GF % 49.10%, Kerfoot 46.38%

Here are some of the the Leafs actual GF% last year

Gardiner 61.46%
Johnsson 61.18%
Marner 59.85%
Tavares 59.71%
Lindholm 57.50%
Hainsey 56.39%
Kadri 52.86%

Matthews 48.76%

May have got rid of some of the better performers in their role​

Does GF% have predictive value year to year? Can you show me how it does?

 

[MattySnipes]

There probably is a right answer, actually.



This is all false.

Matthews has faced tougher qoc than Marner so far I their careers, and it was MUCH tougher the first two years, while Marner faced tougher comp for the first time last year.

Glad to see you back Zeke.

 

[zeke]

Glad to see you back Zeke.

 

[thewave]

Another question if mine would be: is it safe to say that Don Waddell was "lowballing" Aho because he refused to pay him a number relative to the vastly increased league scoring? My guess was he was negotiating extremely hard for that $7-8M dollar range but got ****ed over by the Habs offer-sheet and had to bite. And that's the funny thing, in the standards of debate over here, $8.5 is a pretty god damn good number for Aho.

You could probably slide Carolina in as another team who refuses to pay extra for this crazy increase in league scoring. They did well for themselves on the Teravainen contract as well.

It should have been flagged by Management and addressed at a board of governors meeting. The teams should have all been alerted and stood firm together to not rock the boat. Perhaps the league isn't very good that way or some GMs felt that the knowledge was an asset and that some teams would get into cap trouble. The upside to such teams in the know is getting cheap talent when cap runs out. It's hard to say, would be interesting to be a fly on the wall.

 

[stopclickbait]

Does GF% have predictive value year to year? Can you show me how it does?

Jeff Schultz once had a GF% of 71.56 in 72 games truly a generation D man that would go on to win multiple norris trophies

 

[Martin Skoula]

Jeff Schultz once had a GF% of 71.56 in 72 games truly a generation D man that would go on to win multiple norris trophies

Well we already knew he's an elite player, he won 2 Stanley cups. Cups > Wins > GF% > raw points > +/- for predicting future performance.

 

[Pookie]

We are done here.... let’s wrap this one up and move on to whatever thread # we are on

 

[biotk]

Does GF% have predictive value year to year? Can you show me how it does?

Matthews 2017/18: 67.02%
Matthews 2018/19: 48.67%

I am going to say that it's predictive value is pretty low.

 

[Pookie]

Looks like you forgot the rest of my reply on actual GF%. Maybe you and Dubas forgot about those. You and dubas can consider expected GF all you want along with your expected cup. Be warned though, those GMs who care about actual results may be better positioned to win an actual cup.

Here was the full reply if GF% are not beneath you guys

Forget expected GF%, if we want to talk results what are the real ones GF%. And what about guys he acquired to replace these non-stat darlings Speezza 5-5 GF % 49.10%, Kerfoot 46.38%

Here are some of the the Leafs actual GF% last year

Gardiner 61.46%
Johnsson 61.18%
Marner 59.85%
Tavares 59.71%
Lindholm 57.50%
Hainsey 56.39%
Kadri 52.86%

Matthews 48.76%

May have got rid of some of the better performers in their role​

What’s Kadri’s GF% when watching from the press box?

 

[Martin Skoula]

Matthews 2017/18: 67.02%
Matthews 2018/19: 48.67%

I am going to say that it's predictive value is pretty low.

I was hoping he'd figure that part out when it led him to conclude that Lindholm > Matthews, but I guess that's a lot to expect.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Yeah I'm iffy on those highlights. Not sure if any of those skills that look impressive there - skating, size, hands, shot - are actually above average at the NHL level.

We'll see.

I noticed all the space he's able to make for himself. He really knows how to use his size and speed to give himself room to make plays.

Whether or not he can make any plays in the NHL, we'll see.

And welcome back, zeke.

 

[Mess]

New thread is up.

/Closed