Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

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Trapper

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Nov 21, 2013
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I'm not overpaying Marner for 1 year of production where everyone had career years

Bottom line, bridge
In order to stratosphere pay a guy who is heavier on the assist side, you might need a larger sample size.

For example, if Matthews/Kucherov/Kane etc, all score 40 + goals.
Now because of team makeup, team goal scoring drops by 30%.
Who’s point totals are likely to be affected the most? Not saying that there isn’t more to Marner, but if both Nylander/Marner are 20 goal guys, heavier assists, that’s a lot of money for 2 wingers.
 

weems

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7th in points, 4th in row, 4th in gdiff, and they've improved the roster significantly.

Hey whats up Zeke? Where ya been?

Would like to hear your thoughts on our coach Mike Babcock.
 

Kiwi

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Why is that a problem? Marner is an assist machine.

The better question is, is he going to be able to replicate that assist rate into the future

I think he's a high end talent and he's going to put up a ton of points throughout his career but I'd be lying if I said I think those assist numbers are sustainable
 
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zeke

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Zeke the problem with the way you come to conclusions or justify things is that you use 1000 different metrics with 999,999 possible ways to slice it and then just say, here see! This is why, there are problems, remember when you said Marincin is the end all and be all? Then you watch him and his stats don't tell the story. It's like that with a lot of statistically good players. You could have probably found an argument for Clarkson being a good pickup if you spent the time.

Real life is complicated, unfortunately.

You see it as "too many stats", but really it's actually "context".

So we take points and then we are context - what kind of points were they? What amount of opportunity was needed to produce them? What situations were they produced in? What kind of competition did they come against?

Then we go beyond just offensive production, and use impact stats to get a sense of how the player impacts the run of play while on the ice beyond just scoring. And then we try to remove factors like quality of teammates, quality of competition, zone deployment, and such and such from biasing those numbers too much.


So what you see as too many stats is really just two major types of stats, with a whole crapload of context added in.
 

zeke

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Oh, so you agree?
It's not projected 5v5 stats that win games? It's actual REAL points? So 110 real points is far more valuable than 70 real points, regardless of all the other nonsense?

Good to know.

There seemed to be some confusion around here.

Imagine a player with identical 5v5 stats as Matthews, except he scored 110 REAL points last year for the leafs. That would help the leafs MORE than 70 points last year. No matter how you spin it.

I agreed with your statement that if ovechkin's team won that game, then yes, they did indeed win that game.
 
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zeke

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And the third year in a roll to leave playoffs in the frist round. Keep overpaying under accomplishing players, and hope that's the answer. Hasn't worked for over 50 years; but ha, this might be the year...

Actually the history of the leafs has been the opposite - paying players for what they already accomplished, not for what they were likely to accomplish going forward. Overpaying bottom liners instead of paying for elite talent.

Finally, for the first time in my life, the leafs have a team that has dumped all the overpaid crap at the bottom of the roster and has somehow managed to lock in the most impressive group of young elite talent in hockey under the cap.

It's pre5ty damn exciting.
 

ACC1224

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Actually the history of the leafs has been the opposite - paying players for what they already accomplished, not for what they were likely to accomplish going forward. Overpaying bottom liners instead of paying for elite talent.

Finally, for the first time in my life, the leafs have a team that has dumped all the overpaid crap at the bottom of the roster and has somehow managed to lock in the most impressive group of young elite talent in hockey under the cap.

It's pre5ty damn exciting.

Not quite. I'm not worried though, it'll get done.
 
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zeke

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I doubt he's that narrow minded. He would make decisions based on everything available to him.

Narrow minded is looking at something like points without context.

Open minded means looking at all the context, which is exactly what the analytics do.

Analytics don't ignore points in the least, they just add a whole lot of necessary information to them to make them useful.
 

ACC1224

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Narrow minded is looking at something like points without context.

Open minded means looking at all the context, which is exactly what the analytics do.

Analytics don't ignore points in the least, they just add a whole lot of necessary information to them to make them useful.
Hopefully
 

supsens

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Paying him like we expect him to be by far the best playmaker of this decade or the next = bad.

What if he is tho? The cap keeos going up at some point a 22 year old star winger will be the highest paid winger. He may as well be your player.
 

zeke

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If you cannot see why a team with questionable defensive depth having Gardiner, Dermott, Rosen and Borgman all injured at the same time is a significant problem then I'm afraid no one can help you.

They could have called up their two studly teenage dmen, of course.
 
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Martin Skoula

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What if he is tho? The cap keeos going up at some point a 22 year old star winger will be the highest paid winger. He may as well be your player.

We did that for a goalscorer that actually maintained those even strength goalscoring numbers over 3 years instead of 1, now everyone is crying about him being overpaid.
 
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Coachcorner

Senor Martinez
Sep 28, 2017
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I mean, we finna get ours sire. We gittin there with respect. Marner soon has to put the pen down. That means dollards and dollars on suckas. Like ten mill or less. That's huge money dawg. We loves to dirt with that. They waiting too long like nylander did his. You only get haters that way. Why take hatas when you already is loved and cared? That's that dumb dirt right thurr like chingy said back in the days. Marner soon be penning it down sire. He bout that. And we bout that life y'all already knew. Wonder if it goes down tomorrow? Because like nas said 1997 "I'll be gone by daylight and you be so full of sorrow".
 
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zeke

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Hey whats up Zeke? Where ya been?

Would like to hear your thoughts on our coach Mike Babcock.

Shh big brother is watching.

Babcock? Well, maybe he can do less damage this year now that dubes has taken of his toys away and forced him to hire cutting edge assistant and special teams coaches. But I'm already getting the willies about hearing all this talk of Mikheyev in a big role.
 
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Randy Randerson

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Shh big brother is watching.

Babcock? Well, maybe he can do less damage this year now that dubes has taken of his toys away and forced him to hire cutting edge assistant and special teams coaches. But I'm already getting the willies about hearing all this talk of Mikheyev in a big role.
what about Mikheyev don't you like, just that it seems like a Babcock decision? His KHL stats are decent, but I thought his highlight reel looked very promising for skillset - fast, tenacious, for some reason he was always working in a crowd even on the big ice but seemed to thrive in it, good shot, good hands

also seems like Babcock is getting more oversight, I would guess Mikheyev wasn't his call as a signing
 

supsens

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We did that for a goalscorer that actually maintained those even strength goalscoring numbers over 3 years instead of 1, now everyone is crying about him being overpaid.

I don't think hes overpaid if you go off JT's contract, like he did and like Marner is also. The maple Leafs pay their top players 11+
It sucks but who cares, its not like they are going to show up at your house and demand the money.
 

zeke

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what about Mikheyev don't you like, just that it seems like a Babcock decision? His KHL stats are decent, but I thought his highlight reel looked very promising for skillset - fast, tenacious, for some reason he was always working in a crowd even on the big ice but seemed to thrive in it, good shot, good hands

also seems like Babcock is getting more oversight, I would guess Mikheyev wasn't his call as a signing

Fingers crossed, but his age and production dont scream NHLer to me.

If he makes it it's probably as a grinder. Handing him top 6 opportunity seems like a bad idea to me.
 

Randy Randerson

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Fingers crossed, but his age and production dont scream NHLer to me.

If he makes it it's probably as a grinder. Handing him top 6 opportunity seems like a bad idea to me.
I was more impressed with his reel than his production, playing in the KHL is always a bit of an asterisk for me because you get weird veteran-heavy usage, a league full of Babcock style coaches. I'm hopeful that he's a better version of Zach Hyman and the risk is low. The reel is below if you haven't seen it, that's what changed me from meh to hopeful on him

 
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