Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[diceman934]

Lets go there......

2016-2017
Matthews 40 goals 69pts (82 games)
Marner 19 goals 61 pts (82 games)

2017-2018
Matthews 34 goals 63pts (62 games played) *point per game
Marner 22 goals 69 pts (82 games)

2018-2019
Matthews 36 goals 73 pts (68 games played) *Point per game
Marner 26 goals 94 pts *point per game

Matthews 205pts in 215GP
Marner 224pts in 241GP

Who is closer to being a point per game player in the NHL?

clearly its Matthews.

Matthews SMOKED Marner over their rookie and sophomore seasons. Its not even close.

You where comparing them to all the NHL. Mathews has not been close to the top 10 in points in any season. Marner has. Even strength points this year top 5 even. Even strength assist top 5.

Marner smoked Mathews in even strength points. This season.

 

[mouser]

Im not sure we can sign marner in November due to the pro-rated cap hit.. Nylander signed end of November and his cap hit year 1 was over 10M.. wouldn't this be the same for mitch if he doesnt sign by the first game of the season? every day that passes once the season starts his cap hit year 1 gets higher and higher and makes it even harder to sign him. If Marner isn't signed by end of Oct I really can't see him playing for the leafs this year unless they move someone with significant cap out.

If mitch signes Oct 1 for 5x10.5 his cap hit is 10.5 for the 5 years.. if he signs 5x10.5 Nov 1, his cap hit year 1 will be ~12.1M and his cap hit years 2-5 would be ~10.2.. If mitch signs a 5x10 year contract on Dec 1 (or whatever the deadline is) I believe his cap hit year 1 would be ~14.4M and years 2-5 would be ~9.8M

Point being, due to the pro-rating of the first year cap hit for a player who holds out, there is a pretty tight deadline for Mitch to sign.

Even signing Marner on day 1 of the season is a real challenge because it's difficult to extract the maximum cap space from a Horton LTIR in that scenario. So long as the Leafs are planning to keep Horton the best cap strategy for them is to get Marner signed before the season starts and use Horton's LTIR before day 1. They can then LTIR Hyman on day 1 for maximum cap flexibility.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I find the diminishing of Marner's 94 point accomplishment around here amusing...

This looks more like realistic assessment of context than diminishing, he played with a #1oa center that has a long history of dramatically increasing linemates' production. He might not ever have had a linemate as good as Marner, but Marner's performance shouldn't be on a pedestal either. If you think that Marner would have produced the same playing with, let's say Artem Anisimov rather than Tavares, I think that would be a minority opinion, and Marner is looking to be paid (substantially) more than Patrick Kane's 2nd contract (as a % of cap).

 

[ajp4to]

What do you think a 94 point winger is worth?

Less then Kuckervov, Stamkos plays a winger, P. Kane, Draisiatl, Marchment, Gaudreau just to name a few who finished ahead of him in the scoring race. Many others that are miles ahead of Marner on teams that wouldn't trade straight up for Marner...

 

[Clark4Ever]

Bozak = career high
JVR = career high
Kadri = career high in goals
Hyman = career high
JT = career high

For vets playing with a 19-20yo that is pretty impressive.

I'm sure it's all just a giant, massive, colossal, coincidence.

Marner is an elite playmaker without question. He is also responsible defensively.

However, his goal scoring ability and skating are not even close to elite. He also gets pushed off the puck often due to his size.

The bottom line is he should not be one of the highest paid players in the NHL.

 

[Pookie]

The discussions would end real quick. The Leafs would say the only guy on ur team we are interested in a Marner trade is Jones. That would end things right there. and CBJ not giving up 4 1st rounders for a 5 year Marner deal. so this one would die very quickly.

Yep.

But it ends based on the compensation to be given not on the willingness to sign him to a number that fits in his range.

Two very different but related constructs.

 

[IPS]

Not just PP time, but PP success. One would expect PP success to go up next season.

yeah 2:35 of PP time a game just ain't f***ing enough for the talents we have on this team.

I really don't get why we pay all of our talents as 100+ point scorers yet limit their PP time and split it with Marleau, Hyman, Kapanen, etc...

If we're gonna cut their PP time could we atleast f***ing up their ES time? Marner is still 35th among forwards in ES TOI despite getting his PP time getting artificially cut short.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

It isn't, but...

Hyman - 1 more point.
JvR - 1 more point.
Bozak - 4 points above his career pace.
JT - 2 more points than his previously best, but that season that was good for #2 in the league.
Kadri - Goals instead of points, tied a previous best, Marner was only there for half that season.

It speaks to his quality that they all do that well with him, but it's not a huge deviation from the norm for these guys.

Hyman missed 11 games, scored 21 goals
JVR - Playing over 5min a freaking game less (21:03 vs 15:53)
Bozak - 6 points actually. Also playing 4:31/game and 2:34/game more in those 49 point seasons
JT - 9 more goals than career high, crushed his even strength records.
Kadri - on Pace to crush all his stats while playing with Marner over a full season.

You know all this though..... Your bias is showing again.

 

[MyBudJT]

yeah 2:35 of PP time a game just ain't ****ing enough for the talents we have on this team.

I really don't get why we pay all of our talents as 100+ point scorers yet limit their PP time and split it with Marleau, Hyman, Kapanen, etc...

If we're gonna cut their PP time could we atleast ****ing up their ES time? Marner is still 35th among forwards in ES TOI despite getting his PP time getting artificially cut short.

The refs had a big hand in the lack of PP time too

 

[ToneDog]

Marner was moved in to replace Komarov and salvaged Kadri’s season from a career worst slump of 2 points in 20 games. Kadri goes on a tear.

Next season, Marner plays with JT and JT has the best year of his career.

Funny that some of you can’t see the common thread there with this playmaker we have.

It was tongue in cheek. I realise how good a player Marner is but if I had to choose Marner or Matthews, I choose Matthews. Leafs did too by giving him a blank cheque. Sorry, in a cap world Leafs can't overpay everybody. Marner wanted to eat last and now there may not be enough food left to satisfy his hunger. Take Leafs best offer or go find a team that will meet your demands.

 

[IPS]

The refs had a big hand in the lack of PP time too

A comparable offensive team in Pittsburgh didn't get many favors from the refs either (they got 17 more PP's than us last season, spread across 82 games it's pretty miniscule) and they still had no problem getting their main boys ~3:30ish of PP time a game (which is what I want our guys to get, atleast).

Let's not beat around the bush here, something is ridiculous about how little PP time our main guys get. Just imagine your boy Mitch getting a minute more of PP time a game (which he deserves).

 

[Pookie]

It was tongue in cheek. I realise how good a player Marner is but if I had to choose Marner or Matthews, I choose Matthews. Leafs did too by giving him a blank cheque. Sorry, in a cap world Leafs can't overpay everybody. Marner wanted to eat last and now there may not be enough food left to satisfy his hunger. Take Leafs best offer or go find a team that will meet your demands.

I’m fine with that. Provided he doesn’t sit for the season.

That would be a failure on Dubas.

 

[ToneDog]

I’m fine with that. Provided he doesn’t sit for the season.

That would be a failure on Dubas.

Marner won't sit the season. He loses $10M and writes his ticket out of town if it gets to that point.

 

[Pookie]

It isn't, but...

Hyman - 1 more point.
JvR - 1 more point.
Bozak - 4 points above his career pace.
JT - 2 more points than his previously best, but that season that was good for #2 in the league.
Kadri - Goals instead of points, tied a previous best, Marner was only there for half that season.

It speaks to his quality that they all do that well with him, but it's not a huge deviation from the norm for these guys.

That’s some major spin.

Kadri had 2 points in 20 games. An 8 point season pace and on track to post his worst season ever.

The fact Marner helped salvage Kadri’s season and that he finished where he did was a remarkable turn of events for both players.

Can’t believe how you would brush that off as a non event.

 

[nuck]

yeah 2:35 of PP time a game just ain't ****ing enough for the talents we have on this team.

I really don't get why we pay all of our talents as 100+ point scorers yet limit their PP time and split it with Marleau, Hyman, Kapanen, etc...

Babcock was not nearly so stingy with his minutes when the Wings were winning. He should have his top guys playing 20+ all the time and maybe back off a bit later in the year. I know they were talking in Edmonton about how playing McD and Drai over 22:00 was fatiguing them a bit later in the year. Maybe with less financial commitment to bottom six guys Babs will run with his thoroughbreds more. One thing is I don't think Kerfoot has the matchup guy potential close to Kadri so he might lose ES minutes to the top 2, in addition to less PP and no PK

 

[diceman934]

It isn't, but...

Hyman - 1 more point.
JvR - 1 more point.
Bozak - 4 points above his career pace.
JT - 2 more points than his previously best, but that season that was good for #2 in the league.
Kadri - Goals instead of points, tied a previous best, Marner was only there for half that season.

It speaks to his quality that they all do that well with him, but it's not a huge deviation from the norm for these guys.

Hyman played with Mathews and he missed games this year. He played 11 less games.

Both JVR and Bozak both played top line minutes with Kessel and seen a drop of 5 minutes per game in ice time making those two even more impressive.

Kadri goals was his best as he played less games and tied his best. His ppg with Marner was way up as was Marleau who played at a 63 point pace for the time he played with Marner.

It is very impressive.

 

[nuck]

Marner won't sit the season. He loses $10M and writes his ticket out of town it gets to that point.

Interesting how little talk there is about sitting out seasons or trading RFAs on the Colorado, Calgary, and Tampa boards. Its almost like we are over reacting a bit

 

[TheBeastCoast]

What do you think a 94 point winger is worth?

Less then 10 million?

 

[Nithoniniel]

Hyman missed 11 games, scored 21 goals
JVR - Playing over 5min a freaking game less (21:03 vs 15:53)
Bozak - 6 points actually. Also playing 4:31/game and 2:34/game more in those 49 point seasons
JT - 9 more goals than career high, crushed his even strength records.
Kadri - on Pace to crush all his stats while playing with Marner over a full season.

You know all this though..... Your bias is showing again.

First of all, what bias? Marner is my favorite player on the team. Second, don't talk about bias in a post where you move the goalposts from being about setting career seasons to whether those points were ES or PP, goals or assists.

Your post was about career years. I gave context to that. If you want to talk about something else, like Marner's effect on his linemates, then I'm up for that. And I quite frankly think it would make for a better argument in his favor.

Hyman played with Mathews and he missed games this year. He played 11 less games.

Both JVR and Bozak both played top line minutes with Kessel and seen a drop of 5 minutes per game in ice time making those two even more impressive.

Kadri goals was his best as he played less games and tied his best. His ppg with Marner was way up as was Marleau who played at a 63 point pace for the time he played with Marner.

It is very impressive.

It sure is. I didn't want to diminish Marner there.

He has been a terrific boost for his linemates through his career so far. Obviously, considering what kind of player he is. The best way to illustrate that isn't by talking about linemates having career years in points, when that is mostly by the slimmest of margins.

 

[Golden_Jet]

There isn’t 5.3 million LTIR automatically.
If you are 300k under cap, then you get 5 million ltir, 1 million under cap , then 4.3 million in ltir.

Cannot start the year with zero cap space, to get the 5.3 million, what about injury scenarios.

What happens next year when the 5.3 ltir is gone, as hortons contract will be up

 

[Mess]

I too just Marner to sign and end this. But it should be pretty obvious that some just like to tow the corporate line whatever the situation is.

The team put themselves into this situation. Some/many seem to want to overlook this.

I think the moment we signed Tavares, we were headed for trouble. Our big three got some ideas from that on what kind of dollars to expect for a given level of production, and it set a precedence of sort. Mitch happens to be last of the big three to sign, so he inherits the worst circumstance.

Marner going last was another GM mistake to allow it.

Had Dubas began with Willy and gotten him signed first, then Marner who put up similar #'s in the 60's to Nylander the past 2 seasons would have worked from Nylander on up, going 2nd where $8.5 on term would have likely gotten Marner done last summer. The Draisaitl deal was often floated last summer as comparable Mitch was seeking. That would have been the middle ground between the rumoured $9 mil X 8 original offer to Dubas and the $7.5 mil X 8 counter offer.

So by letting Marner go last, while letting him rack up the points this past year playing with JT, has positioned himself poorly because of Marner's season. Then signing Matthews 2nd to that vast overpayment on rate $ per term, he has now set up a situation for himself having Marner working from Matthews down.

Pretty easy call if you have to pick the position you want to be in as GM of dealing with Marner on a Nylander UP% or Matthews DOWN%.

Dubas has the worst circumstances now, while Marner plans to benefit financially due to Dubas' past charities in previous contracts and allowing him to go last .

 

[Menzinger]

Marner going last was another GM mistake to allow it.

Had Dubas began with Willy and gotten him signed first, then Marner who put up similar #'s in the 60's to Nylander the past 2 seasons would have worked from Nylander on up, going 2nd where $8.5 on term would have likely gotten Marner done last summer. The Draisaitl deal was often floated last summer as comparable Mitch was seeking. That would have been the middle ground between the rumoured $9 mil X 8 original offer to Dubas and the $7.5 mil X 8 counter offer.

So by letting Marner go last, while letting him rack up the points this past year playing with JT, has positioned himself poorly because of Marner's season. Then signing Matthews 2nd to that vast overpayment on rate $ per term, he has now set up a situation for himself having Marner working from Matthews down.

Pretty easy call if you have to pick the position you want to be in as GM of dealing with Marner on a Nylander UP% or Matthews DOWN%.

Dubas has the worst circumstances now, while Marner plans to benefit financially due to Dubas' past charities in previous contracts and allowing him to go last .

Marner decided not to negotiate during the season. He had every opportunity to negotiate a deal alongside Matthew's, his and his agent opted not to. And GMs cant force a player to sign - as Lou was unable to sign Nylander during the 2017/18 season

 

[Stephen]

That's why we're paying Nylander the 8.5 he wanted.

Yep. That’s how we ended up paying Draisaitl money for Willie like he always wanted.

 

[Sypher04]

Marner going last was another GM mistake to allow it.

Had Dubas began with Willy and gotten him signed first, then Marner who put up similar #'s in the 60's to Nylander the past 2 seasons would have worked from Nylander on up, going 2nd where $8.5 on term would have likely gotten Marner done last summer. The Draisaitl deal was often floated last summer as comparable Mitch was seeking. That would have been the middle ground between the rumoured $9 mil X 8 original offer to Dubas and the $7.5 mil X 8 counter offer.

So by letting Marner go last, while letting him rack up the points this past year playing with JT, has positioned himself poorly because of Marner's season. Then signing Matthews 2nd to that vast overpayment on rate $ per term, he has now set up a situation for himself having Marner working from Matthews down.

Pretty easy call if you have to pick the position you want to be in as GM of dealing with Marner on a Nylander UP% or Matthews DOWN%.

Dubas has the worst circumstances now, while Marner plans to benefit financially due to Dubas' past charities in previous contracts and allowing him to go last .

Ridiculous. Dubas cannot force Marner to sign on his timetable if he doesn't want to and he needed some clarity on our cap going forward hence Matthews deal had to be done.

 

[Al14]

If Marner truly wants to be a Leaf, he better sign a contract real soon. Enough of this B.S.

I think Dubas should be soliciting trade offers for him since he and his camp have not shown any commitment and are sitting back waiting for an offer sheet.

I'd love to see how Marner performs without having Tavares inflate his numbers!