Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[ajp4to]

Bring on the offer sheet.

BRING. IT. ON.

Someone has to be willing to give that offer sheet. No team in the league is going to give Marner more then the leafs have already offered. This is the same situation as Nylander, no team was going to offer sheet Nylander when the leafs were already offering (6.5m) more then anyone else was willing to pay.

 

[ajp4to]

If Marner isn't signed by end of weekend, don't be surprised to see trade talks heating up

No one is going to trade for Marner if his demands are 10+.

 

[DarkKnight]

There is your first problem, because they definitely were not.

Again, I’ll defer to sentiment around the league, not Dubas supporters. Absolutely over paid, the term for Matthews is embarrassing at that number. Enjoy the delusions, you have plenty of supporters here.

 

[Mess]

So how can this ever go away? Due to the Nylander/Matthews dramatic overpayments, the leafs now have to overpay everybody for all of eternity?

Would Dubas being fired even change it?

Once you set your teams internal salary scale, then that choice becomes you'd better be prepared to live by that moving forward when new players that merit being considered among the best on the team want to get paid accordingly.

A GM doesn't need to overpay, but if he set the precedence himself, he has to live with the consequences of his own actions.

So now you either overpay Marner to keep him which results in above NHL comparables, or you might be forced to move on from Marner recognizing the slippery slope your on and continuing down this road will negatively impact the team you're managing. The 3rd option is the one Dubas is currently attempting showing cost constraint, and hoping Marner caves to his will, but while that is happening the player remains unsigned and of no value to your own team either.

This is not just a Leafs issue as every team facing the same issues and concerns when they set their own salary structures based on affordability and budget per market, when managing their salary cap.

Any GM that steps up and overpays Marner via OS, has to understand that he is also impacting his own teams salary structure moving forward, when his own future player contracts are due and they use teammate Marner as their comparable.

 

[MattySnipes]

Marner looks like he's 5'3 in that

Haha ya, it's an uphill ramp. Auston has a good 3ish inches on Mitch, no skates.

 

[ToneDog]

The Leafs don't need to wait for them to make a move when most likely they are all looking to Marner.

How long are they willing to wait? If I am Dubas I do not blink first. One of the big dogs will break first and the rest will follow.

 

[ToneDog]

No one is going to trade for Marner if his demands are 10+.

Exactly. I was thinking Marner for Rantanen but if I am Sakic why would I pay Mitch more than I can sign my own guy ??

 

[ShaneFalco]

Exactly. I was thinking Marner for Rantanen but if I am Sakic why would I pay Mitch more than I can sign my own guy ??

Because he's Mitch freaking Marner son of Paul

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Again, I’ll defer to sentiment around the league, not Dubas supporters. Absolutely over paid, the term for Matthews is embarrassing at that number. Enjoy the delusions, you have plenty of supporters here.

I'll defer to the comparable contracts which all support those numbers in real life. It's not my problem if you want to be ignorant.

 

[Notsince67]

Matthews 30% overpayment based on just 5 years = Marner overpayment by 30% on similar term.. Fair is fair from a players perspective.

Two wrongs don't make a right, and neither Matthews nor Marner should be 30% overpaid to comparables as that is bad for competitiveness and that hurts Cup chances.

However if JT makes $11 mil and produces at 1.07 PPG rate, and Matthews gets $11.634 at 1.07 PPG rate, then your teams leading scorer who produces offense at a 1.15 PPG rate has a valid case to requests similar pay for similar play, while all playing on the same team together.

I don't see that as player greed, but rather management creating this internal salary structure freely of its own doing, and now suddenly realizing cost constraint has to happen and making it the players fault to do so or the team will not be able to be successful going forward. If I just gave two of my own the keys to a new Ferrari, then what would you expect was going to happen with the 3rd?

Even if Matthews is overpaid today at $11.634 mil, had that contract been for 8 years then Marner can't be asking $10.5 mil X 5 even when using Matthews as a direct comparable. Past precedence set term and price and now it appears management in moving the goal posts, recognizing they can't keep making the same mistakes over and over.

These are exactly my sentiments.

 

[ajp4to]

Toronto is really hoping he is signed to an offer sheet. They are not happy with how negotiations have gone and the demands coming from the Marner camp. From what I've been told, the Marner camp has been beyond unreasonable. I know Toronto has held lighter trade discussions with two teams and I've been told things got a little more serious with one of the teams which from my understanding is Columbus

Until CBJ talked to Marner camp and found out what he wanted. They laughed and wished Dubas Goodluck.

 

[CDN24]

Once you set your teams internal salary scale, then that choice becomes you'd better be prepared to live by that moving forward when new players that merit being considered among the best on the team want to get paid accordingly.

A GM doesn't need to overpay, but if he set the precedence himself, he has to live with the consequences of his own actions.

So now you either overpay Marner to keep him which results in above NHL comparables, or you might be forced to move on from Marner recognizing the slippery slope your on and continuing down this road will negatively impact the team you're managing. The 3rd option is the one Dubas is currently attempting showing cost constraint, and hoping Marner caves to his will, but while that is happening the player remains unsigned and of no value to your own team either.

This is not just a Leafs issue as every team facing the same issues and concerns when they set their own salary structures based on affordability and budget per market, when managing their salary cap.

Any GM that steps up and overpays Marner via OS, has to understand that he is also impacting his own teams salary structure moving forward, when his own future player contracts are due and they use teammate Marner as their comparable.

Dubas had to realize what marners ask would be after he gave that contract to AM

The bolded is why when Bergevin offer-sheeted Aho, he tried to keep the AAV reasonable and front load the crap out of it. He can live with front loading contracts going forward, what he could not do was overpay Aho on AAV by $2M knowing he would set a precedent for when guys like Kotkaniemi and Poehling come off ELC in 2 years and even Suzuki in 3. If one of those guys becomes elite he knows he can't set a precedent of overpaying elite. He could have added $2M to the Aho AAv and kept compensation at 2 first a second and a third. It would have increased his chances that Carolina doesn't match but it would have cost him way more than $2M a year into the future, even if Carolina still matches. Bergevin got laughed at for that offersheet attempt but it probably helped out a lot of GM's including Waddell and himself.

In hindsight, if Dubas had taken the risk of both Marner and Matthews becoming RFA on July 1 he would have been in a much better position to use Aho as a comparable for both now and probably could have got both done for $18-19M total. Hindsight is 20/20 though and toothpaste is hard to get back in the tube.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Because he's Mitch freaking Marner son of Paul

Because he is better than Ranta. But it would cost Sakic the NHL max 20% of CAP when MAC comes up in 4 years. More importantly it would lead to issues in the Rockies because you can't have your #2 making double your #1 guy. If I was Leafs and didn't win in next 4 years I would target MAC at 27. Trade him for Matty so Matty gets closer to home.
In fact if nothing can get done with Marner by camp make a huge move and trade Marner and Matty to Avs for MAC and Ranta and their 2020 #1 pick. We get a lower cost AAV so we can spend more on defense and team scoring probably close to today. But we get the better playoff performer who can take us to the CUP.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Because he is better than Ranta. But it would cost Sakic the NHL max 20% of CAP when MAC comes up in 4 years. More importantly it would lead to issues in the Rockies because you can't have your #2 making double your #1 guy. If I was Leafs and didn't win in next 4 years I would target MAC at 27. Trade him for Matty so Matty gets closer to home.
In fact if nothing can get done with Marner by camp make a huge move and trade Marner and Matty to Avs for MAC and Ranta and their 2020 #1 pick. We get a lower cost AAV so we can spend more on defense and team scoring probably close to today. But we get the better playoff performer who can take us to the CUP.

Before a bunch of stupid responses I know the Avs would say SCREW off .... it was tongue in cheek

 

[DarkKnight]

I'll defer to the comparable contracts which all support those numbers in real life. It's not my problem if you want to be ignorant.

I’ll take the league view general consensus thanks. You hang out here for agenda driven validation, it doesn’t really matter. Matthews contract is a joke with the term and Willie going to Dec to get that sweetheart deal is a total failure.

I like to judge Kyle on a case by case basis, as opposed to already having a side chosen regardless. It’s kind of boring to be honest.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Exactly. I was thinking Marner for Rantanen but if I am Sakic why would I pay Mitch more than I can sign my own guy ??

Why would we trade for the inferior player who is also a year older?

I'll defer to the comparable contracts which all support those numbers in real life. It's not my problem if you want to be ignorant.

Matthews wanted 14x8.... who is that comparable?
It's a bad deal over 5 years. I have not heard a single "expert" say it's a good deal. Nobody likes the 5 year aspect. He is a great goal scorer, but put up numbers no where close to Crosby or Malkin, yet wanted more than McDavid.

Remember, scoring is up, so Matthews numbers are inflated compared to most of the last 20 years. I don't really believe that, just keeping the thread consistent for both players.

 

[ajp4to]

How long are they willing to wait? If I am Dubas I do not blink first. One of the big dogs will break first and the rest will follow.

Dubas will blink first, he has shown his weakness, and all agents are going to use this advantage. Come Nov. whether the team is playing well or not, he will cave, either because he thinks they need Marner to make the playoffs, or if in a playoff spot to make team a cup contender.

 

[ACC1224]

What that Mitch’s father comes across like an angry guy living through his son?

That’s kinda on him

Pretty asinine to hold the perceived view of the father against the son.

 

[ACC1224]

Exactly. I was thinking Marner for Rantanen but if I am Sakic why would I pay Mitch more than I can sign my own guy ??

He would have to pay more because Marner is better.
He won't because he doesn't need to.

 

[Notsince67]

Why would we trade for the inferior player who is also a year older?



Matthews wanted 14x8.... who is that comparable?
It's a bad deal over 5 years. I have not heard a single "expert" say it's a good deal. Nobody likes the 5 year aspect. He is a great goal scorer, but put up numbers no where close to Crosby or Malkin, yet wanted more than McDavid.

Remember, scoring is up, so Matthews numbers are inflated compared to most of the last 20 years. I don't really believe that, just keeping the thread consistent for both players.

Truth is, I know of one person in the league that can live up to that contract. Even at Matthews last 82 game pace, I don't see it as enough to placate the fans in the years to come. I like matthews a lot and I'm glad he has nerves of steel but if he isn't up around top 3 in points soon, there will be a lot of heat. Goals will only take you so far. We are talking, McDavid numbers and prime ovie, Crosby & Malkin kind of stats. Dividing a stat by 60 for a year will only take you so far.
That being said, I am quite sure that Marner could crack 100 next year and still get the gears around here. People are more patient with Matthews but it wont last forever.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

A lot of signings today. I guess Marner turned down all his offersheets at once.

 

[Sypher04]

Agreed.

I agree the had the worst circumstance however we cannot just gloss over the fact he chose to go last

 

[Grapes1]

Things will get very interesting for any unsigned players come September if the NHLPA or the Owners give notice that the they wish to end the current CBA before the 2020-2021 season.

Puts a little more pressure on guys like Mitch who can sign a signing bonus heavy contract, aka "lockout proof"

 

[Pookie]

Someone has to be willing to give that offer sheet. No team in the league is going to give Marner more then the leafs have already offered. This is the same situation as Nylander, no team was going to offer sheet Nylander when the leafs were already offering (6.5m) more then anyone else was willing to pay.

A team may be willing to pay the contract price but not give up 4 picks for a shorter term.

Marner’s camp will move at some point.

 

[Sypher04]

Truth is, I know of one person in the league that can live up to that contract. Even at Matthews last 82 game pace, I don't see it as enough to placate the fans in the years to come. I like matthews a lot and I'm glad he has nerves of steel but if he isn't up around top 3 in points soon, there will be a lot of heat. Goals will only take you so far. We are talking, McDavid numbers and prime ovie, Crosby & Malkin kind of stats. Dividing a stat by 60 for a year will only take you so far.
That being said, I am quite sure that Marner could crack 100 next year and still get the gears around here. People are more patient with Matthews but it wont last forever.

Up until contract talk became part of this, Marner seemed almost unanimously loved around here while Matthews has been getting crapped on for all kinds of unreasonable reasons and it has very much intensified since his contract. There is no patience and Matthews most certainly isn't the beneficiary of it if there was. Fact of the matter is this fanbase overall is too damn sensitive when it comes to business deals we have nothing to do with. People soured on Nylander over money, then Matthews and now they are doing it with Marner.

That all said as time progresses and more players sign these big deals Matthews deal will appear better not worse. I'm not sure he needs to finish top 3 in points at any time to fully deserve his deal. I just don't see it that way.

Tbh I'll be surprised if we don't get 100 point seasons out of both Matthews and Marner at some point. Perhaps even soon than later