Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[MyBudJT]

explain please.......

The stats on Boeser was showing his 2nd and 3rd ELC year. The stats you showed on Marner was his 1st and 2nd and 3rd ELC year. I showed you Marner's 2nd and 3rd ELC year stats.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

If Marner accepts an offersheet and Dubas doesnt match, who do you think Dubas targets?

Im guessing Gardiner would be back on a team friendly deal and maybe we would see 1 or 2 of the picks traded right away for some further roster improvements. Perhaps even an offersheet to a guy like Rantenen perhaps? Or Point? Try to hurt a division rival too. There aren't many UFAs left so Dubas would have to wait until next summer.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You do know that those starts are just showing his U21 and U22 seasons, right?

Marner's U21 and U22 seasons:

0.3 goals, and 1 point / game

Ok.

0.42 goals/game and 0.85 points/game at 6.2-8.25 mil
vs
0.3 goals/game and 0.99 points/game at 10-12 mil

Yeah... I wonder what's the better deal.

 

[81Leafs50]

The stats on Boeser was showing his 2nd and 3rd ELC year. The stats you showed on Marner was his 1st and 2nd and 3rd ELC year. I showed you Marner's 2nd and 3rd ELC year stats.

Brock Boeser
2016-2017: 9GP 4G 1A 5PTS
2017-2018: 62GP 29G 26A 55PTS
2018-2019: 69GP 26G 30A 56PTS

Pts/game .828
goals/game .421

Mitch Marner
2016-2017: 77GP 16G 42A 61PTS
2017-2018: 82GP 22G 47A 69PTS
2018-2019: 82GP 26G 68A 94PTS

pts/game .929
goals/game .278

Is this not correct?

 

[ToneDog]

Why does it have to be so simplistic always? Why not dump him and add a 1st the return you get for him and get an asset with term? Tone I am shocked at that comment from you, wasn't expecting it. You know assets can be combined and traded, it's a scorcher out there so you're forgiven.

GMs do not think that way. They think what do I have to do to make us better going into the playoffs? In theory your argument makes sense but it just is not the way NHL GMs do things. Be prepared, because with any luck we should see the same behaviour next February.

 

[Deebo]

A good friend of mine works for the sports agency that owns Marner's exclusive rights as well as many other professional athletes.

Is it DHG?

 

[thewave]

If Marner accepts an offersheet and Dubas doesnt match, who do you think Dubas targets?

Im guessing Gardiner would be back on a team friendly deal and maybe we would see 1 or 2 of the picks traded right away for some further roster improvements. Perhaps even an offersheet to a guy like Rantenen perhaps? Or Point? Try to hurt a division rival too. There aren't many UFAs left so Dubas would have to wait until next summer.

I imagine we have 4x 1sts as the return. With them we will get rentals or a winger and keep drafting.

I see...

Barrie signed 8m x 6
Muzzin signed 6m x 4
Jake signed 6.5m x 4

If Lilj or Sandin displace someone they get traded. Very comfortable development path for this team and solid D core.

 

[Mess]

I don't see this necessarily as what's happening.
Let's say for arguments sake that Marner's best comparable league-wide is Kucherov at 9.5/8
If the Leafs were offering him say 10/6 with all the perks of up front signing bonus money and all that jazz, that would be by definition a very player friendly deal and frankly an overpayment based on his comparables. The idea that it has to be Matthews' money however, if that's what is actually the ask from the Marner camp, doesn't represent simply a player friendly deal, it represents a probably 30% overpayment. This is where things break down imo.

Matthews 30% overpayment based on just 5 years = Marner overpayment by 30% on similar term.. Fair is fair from a players perspective.

Two wrongs don't make a right, and neither Matthews nor Marner should be 30% overpaid to comparables as that is bad for competitiveness and that hurts Cup chances.

However if JT makes $11 mil and produces at 1.07 PPG rate, and Matthews gets $11.634 at 1.07 PPG rate, then your teams leading scorer who produces offense at a 1.15 PPG rate has a valid case to requests similar pay for similar play, while all playing on the same team together.

I don't see that as player greed, but rather management creating this internal salary structure freely of its own doing, and now suddenly realizing cost constraint has to happen and making it the players fault to do so or the team will not be able to be successful going forward. If I just gave two of my own the keys to a new Ferrari, then what would you expect was going to happen with the 3rd?

Even if Matthews is overpaid today at $11.634 mil, had that contract been for 8 years then Marner can't be asking $10.5 mil X 5 even when using Matthews as a direct comparable. Past precedence set term and price and now it appears management in moving the goal posts, recognizing they can't keep making the same mistakes over and over.

 

[thewave]

Is it DHG?

Don't bring my brother into this Deebo.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Matthews 30% overpayment based on just 5 years = Marner overpayment by 30% on similar term.. Fair is fair from a players perspective.

Two wrongs don't make a right, and neither Matthews nor Marner should be 30% overpaid to comparables as that is bad for competitiveness and that hurts Cup chances.

However if JT makes $11 mil and produces at 1.07 PPG rate, and Matthews gets $11.634 at 1.07 PPG rate, then your teams leading scorer who produces offense at a 1.15 PPG rate has a valid case to requests similar pay for similar play, while all playing on the same team together.

I don't see that as player greed, but rather management creating this internal salary structure freely of its own doing, and now suddenly realizing cost constraint has to happen and making it the players fault to do so or the team will not be able to be successful going forward. If I just gave two of my own the keys to a new Ferrari, then what would you expect was going to happen with the 3rd?

Even if Matthews is overpaid today at $11.634 mil, had that contract been for 8 years then Marner can't be asking $10.5 mil X 5 even when using Matthews as a direct comparable. Past precedence set term and price and now it appears management in moving the goal posts, recognizing they can't keep making the same mistakes over and over.

So how can this ever go away? Due to the Nylander/Matthews dramatic overpayments, the leafs now have to overpay everybody for all of eternity?

Would Dubas being fired even change it?

 

[MyBudJT]

Ok.

0.42 goals/game and 0.85 points/game at 6.2-8.25 mil
vs
0.3 goals/game and 0.99 points/game at 10-12 mil

Yeah... I wonder what's the better deal.

Marner at 10 >> Boeser at 8.25

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I imagine we have 4x 1sts as the return. With them we will get rentals or a winger and keep drafting.

I see...

Barrie signed 8m x 6
Muzzin signed 6m x 4
Jake signed 6.5m x 4

If Lilj or Sandin displace someone they get traded. Very comfortable development path for this team and solid D core.

Ya I would be expecting 4 1sts too and could see a big bodied top 6 LWer added say with 2 years of term left so they are a little cheaper.

Personally I would only resign one of Muzzin or Gardiner because I feel like Rielly, Muzzin, Gardiner and Dermott is just too left handed heavy. Babcock really seems to hate playing guys on their offside.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Marner at 10 >> Boeser at 8.25

I agree, Marner at the VERY low end of his asking price, and Boeser at the VERY high end of his asking price is probably somewhere near the vicinity of fair.

But I have a hard time seeing that happening...

 

[thewave]

Ya I would be expecting 4 1sts too and could see a big bodied top 6 LWer added say with 2 years of term left so they are a little cheaper.

Personally I would only resign one of Muzzin or Gardiner because I feel like Rielly, Muzzin, Gardiner and Dermott is just too left handed heavy. Babcock really seems to hate playing guys on their offside.

That's fair. The team would be a good balance though and the picks allow us to buy and sell the right combination and chemistry.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

That's fair. The team would be a good balance though and the picks allow us to buy and sell the right combination and chemistry.

I think an offersheet that yields 4 1sts would really make Dubas think twice, especially if the team isnt the greatest and if it is a drastic overpayment

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Don't get me wrong. I don't want it that high, but if we're looking at a medium length term deal at 10.5 vs the player holding out, and say optimistically we get him at 9.5 if we push, I'm not sure sure that's a fight worth entrenching on. If you're gonna overpay anyone, you do it with your star players. We have a legit chance to win cups with this group. I'm not in the business of making any of them feel like they went underappreciated.

This is exactly what has occurred. 2 of the 3 Amigos got a 1M overpay. So will the 3rd. Book it 10.5M for 6 maybe 7 years at some point before camp. and it will be a little overpay too.

 

[ajp4to]

We know that it was Nylander who "caved" by calling Dubas in the last hour. Both sides say that.

But Nylander didn't call to accept Dubas' offer.

Nylander specifically said he started with "Let's make a deal".

Dubas is the one that caved when making that last deal.

TO offer was 6.5, already more then any other team was willing to pay (thus no offer sheet). Dubas and the coach thought Nylander would make the team cup contenders, so gave him what he wanted, even though no other team would touch 6.5m. Team tanked and a horrible precedent set.

 

[Craig Button]

If Marner isn't signed by end of weekend, don't be surprised to see trade talks heating up

Hold on
Did any of these guys sign a new contract?

Point
Rantanen
Tkachuk
Kyle Conner
Laine
Trouba
Werenski
Provorov
MacAvoy
Konecny
Boeser
Jakub Vrana

 

[ACC1224]

A good friend of mine works for the sports agency that owns Marner's exclusive rights as well as many other professional athletes.

.....and that gives them insight into the negotiations because?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Hold on
Did any of these guys sign a new contract?

Point
Rantanen
Tkachuk
Kyle Conner
Laine
Trouba
Werenski
Provorov
MacAvoy
Konecny
Boeser
Jakub Vrana

The Leafs don't need to wait for them to make a move when most likely they are all looking to Marner.

 

[MattySnipes]

Mitch: (motioning at Auston) He got over $11 million, why can't I? Been leading the team in points 2 years running.

Auston: (turns head back) Shut up Mitch, you have a muffin for a shot and were carried by JT. I ran you into the ground, our first two years.

 

[al secord]

Toronto is really hoping he is signed to an offer sheet. They are not happy with how negotiations have gone and the demands coming from the Marner camp. From what I've been told, the Marner camp has been beyond unreasonable. I know Toronto has held lighter trade discussions with two teams and I've been told things got a little more serious with one of the teams which from my understanding is Columbus

I believe you internet man!

 

[ShaneFalco]

Mitch: (motioning at Auston) He got over $11 million, why can't I? Been leading the team in points 2 years running.

Auston: (turns head back) Shut up Mitch, you have a muffin for a shot and were carried by JT. I ran you into the ground, our first two years.

Marner looks like he's 5'3 in that

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Marner looks like he's 5'3 in that

You can tell they are walking up stairs and Marner is way in the background

 

[DarkKnight]

I too just Marner to sign and end this. But it should be pretty obvious that some just like to tow the corporate line whatever the situation is.

The team put themselves into this situation. Some/many seem to want to overlook this.

I think the moment we signed Tavares, we were headed for trouble. Our big three got some ideas from that on what kind of dollars to expect for a given level of production, and it set a precedence of sort. Mitch happens to be last of the big three to sign, so he inherits the worst circumstance.

Again, before the conformist crowd swoops in, I just want Marner to sign so we can see an end to this.

Agreed.