Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[ToneDog]

Why would we trade for the inferior player who is also a year older?



Matthews wanted 14x8.... who is that comparable?
It's a bad deal over 5 years. I have not heard a single "expert" say it's a good deal. Nobody likes the 5 year aspect. He is a great goal scorer, but put up numbers no where close to Crosby or Malkin, yet wanted more than McDavid.

Remember, scoring is up, so Matthews numbers are inflated compared to most of the last 20 years. I don't really believe that, just keeping the thread consistent for both players.

If push comes to shove and you cannot sign him, Ranta would be a great target. Some would argue that Ranta > Marner if Ranta $$ < Marner $$. Not to worry nobody will trade for Marner if he is asking for Matthews money and term. Dubas' strategy should be to wait him and/or the rest of the RFAs out.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Truth is, I know of one person in the league that can live up to that contract. Even at Matthews last 82 game pace, I don't see it as enough to placate the fans in the years to come. I like matthews a lot and I'm glad he has nerves of steel but if he isn't up around top 3 in points soon, there will be a lot of heat. Goals will only take you so far. We are talking, McDavid numbers and prime ovie, Crosby & Malkin kind of stats. Dividing a stat by 60 for a year will only take you so far.
That being said, I am quite sure that Marner could crack 100 next year and still get the gears around here. People are more patient with Matthews but it wont last forever.

I kinda feel the same about Marner, even JT.
Even at 10mil, it's hard to live up to those standards year after year.
There are very few examples of players who stay near the top year over year for multiple years.

Other teams have absolute studs signed for under 7mil/year. With us paying big money, the big players basically have to play amazing for us to have a good shot at a cup.

I think they can all live up to the contract, but there isn't too much room for error.

 

[Sypher04]

The Leafs don't need to wait for them to make a move when most likely they are all looking to Marner.

Zero reason to believe that's the case

 

[Kiwi]

Again, I’ll defer to sentiment around the league, not Dubas supporters. Absolutely over paid, the term for Matthews is embarrassing at that number. Enjoy the delusions, you have plenty of supporters here.

No disagreement from me, it's a ******* terrible contract, truly rank

I'm just hoping like hell we've learnt our lesson now and we're going to pay guys in line with there worth around the league without the "Leafs tax" of about 20%

The contracts for Johnsson, Kapanen and Kerfoot were good fair contracts so here's hoping we keep that going with Marner

 

[ajp4to]

A team may be willing to pay the contract price but not give up 4 picks for a shorter term.

Marner’s camp will move at some point.

The only team in the world willing to overpay Marner is the leafs. No team would give Marner what TO is offering and destroy their own salary structure in the process. NO team, Repeat NO team will give Marner more than the leafs are offering, with or without 4 picks.

 

[Sypher04]

TO offer was 6.5, already more then any other team was willing to pay (thus no offer sheet). Dubas and the coach thought Nylander would make the team cup contenders, so gave him what he wanted, even though no other team would touch 6.5m. Team tanked and a horrible precedent set.

There isn't a single fact in this post.

 

[Pookie]

Yeah but Boeser was playing with the next Gretzky. Marner was playing with and propped up a declining JT .

Marner was moved in to replace Komarov and salvaged Kadri’s season from a career worst slump of 2 points in 20 games. Kadri goes on a tear.

Next season, Marner plays with JT and JT has the best year of his career.

Funny that some of you can’t see the common thread there with this playmaker we have.

 

[Notsince67]

Up until contract talk became part of this, Marner seemed almost unanimously loved around here while Matthews has been getting crapped on for all kinds of unreasonable reasons and it has very much intensified since his contract. There is no patience and Matthews most certainly isn't the beneficiary of it if there was. Fact of the matter is this fanbase overall is too damn sensitive when it comes to business deals we have nothing to do with. People soured on Nylander over money, then Matthews and now they are doing it with Marner.

That all said as time progresses and more players sign these big deals Matthews deal will appear better not worse. I'm not sure he needs to finish top 3 in points at any time to fully deserve his deal. I just don't see it that way.

Tbh I'll be surprised if we don't get 100 point seasons out of both Matthews and Marner at some point. Perhaps even soon than later

I was really completing some thoughts around Marner when I wrote it. I hope for his own sake he isn't looking at 11+mm. Nobody loves a team that doesn't win...especially when it doesn't get better because of a cap issues. I am absolutely certain that there will be zero patience for anyone other than some youngish defense in the next few years. Dermott and maybe Lil and Sand eventually. Contracts need to provide value. Training wheels are off.

 

[ajp4to]

There isn't a single fact in this post.

Just common knowledge and sense...

 

[Pookie]

The only team in the world willing to overpay Marner is the leafs. No team would give Marner what TO is offering and destroy their own salary structure in the process. NO team, Repeat NO team will give Marner more than the leafs are offering, with or without 4 picks.

We don’t know that.

What we know is that Marner’s camp wants a shorter deal.

And the compensation would be 4 draft picks.

Doesn’t take a genius to deduce that 4 picks is a steep price for a short term deal.

We have some insight in that CBJ have reportedly talked to the Leafs about a trade and have talked to the Marner camp about his contract.

A trade would lessen the package of assets CBJ would have to give up and if they are kicking the tires, they are well aware of the price.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Yeah I think Marner is going to be a Leaf. I

Truth is, I know of one person in the league that can live up to that contract. Even at Matthews last 82 game pace, I don't see it as enough to placate the fans in the years to come. I like matthews a lot and I'm glad he has nerves of steel but if he isn't up around top 3 in points soon, there will be a lot of heat. Goals will only take you so far. We are talking, McDavid numbers and prime ovie, Crosby & Malkin kind of stats. Dividing a stat by 60 for a year will only take you so far.
That being said, I am quite sure that Marner could crack 100 next year and still get the gears around here. People are more patient with Matthews but it wont last forever.

Matthews is that bonafide, franchise C that we haven't had since Sundin. He's always going to get more leeway than Marner. With a contract like that though, Matthews needs to be a top 5 player in the NHL. McDavid got a worst contract and showed more (yes the McDavid deal is a steal, but as of right now McDavid is on a different tier than Matthews. 12.5 for 8 is a steal for Edmonton but would have been ok value for us.)

I wouldn't be surprised if more Leaf fans liked Marner more than Matthews (pre contract discussions). The same thing happened with Nylander. Yes he had his detractors, but it wasn't until his contract saga that people really wanted to take him behind the shed. Marner was (and still is) loved by Leaf fans. Things are just getting a bit sour now because of the negotiations. Matthews was lucky. He came in and got what he wanted effectively by-passing what Marner and Nylander went/are going through.

 

[ajp4to]

We don’t know that.

What we know is that Marner’s camp wants a shorter deal.

And the compensation would be 4 draft picks.

Doesn’t take a genius to deduce that 4 picks is a steep price for a short term deal.

We have some insight in that CBJ have reportedly talked to the Leafs about a trade and have talked to the Marner camp about his contract.
We will know when that offer sheet talked about for the last two month by TO media of 11, 12, and 13 is given, which will never come.

A trade would lessen the package of assets CBJ would have to give up and if they are kicking the tires, they are well aware of the price.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Marner was moved in to replace Komarov and salvaged Kadri’s season from a career worst slump of 2 points in 20 games. Kadri goes on a tear.

Next season, Marner plays with JT and JT has the best year of his career.

Funny that some of you can’t see the common thread there with this playmaker we have.

Bozak = career high
JVR = career high
Kadri = career high in goals
Hyman = career high
JT = career high

For vets playing with a 19-20yo that is pretty impressive.

I'm sure it's all just a giant, massive, colossal, coincidence.

 

[ajp4to]

We don’t know that.

What we know is that Marner’s camp wants a shorter deal.

And the compensation would be 4 draft picks.

Doesn’t take a genius to deduce that 4 picks is a steep price for a short term deal.

We have some insight in that CBJ have reportedly talked to the Leafs about a trade and have talked to the Marner camp about his contract.

A trade would lessen the package of assets CBJ would have to give up and if they are kicking the tires, they are well aware of the price.

The insight is that CBJ talked and found out the insane demands by the Marner camp. We will know when that offer sheet talked about for the last two month by TO media of 11, 12, and 13 is given, which will never come.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Guys, Marner is a great playmaker and Tavares is a great finisher, so playing together makes them both better. It's not f***in' rocket science.

 

[lschenn02]

Dubas will blink first, he has shown his weakness, and all agents are going to use this advantage. Come Nov. whether the team is playing well or not, he will cave, either because he thinks they need Marner to make the playoffs, or if in a playoff spot to make team a cup contender.

Im not sure we can sign marner in November due to the pro-rated cap hit.. Nylander signed end of November and his cap hit year 1 was over 10M.. wouldn't this be the same for mitch if he doesnt sign by the first game of the season? every day that passes once the season starts his cap hit year 1 gets higher and higher and makes it even harder to sign him. If Marner isn't signed by end of Oct I really can't see him playing for the leafs this year unless they move someone with significant cap out.

If mitch signes Oct 1 for 5x10.5 his cap hit is 10.5 for the 5 years.. if he signs 5x10.5 Nov 1, his cap hit year 1 will be ~12.1M and his cap hit years 2-5 would be ~10.2.. If mitch signs a 5x10 year contract on Dec 1 (or whatever the deadline is) I believe his cap hit year 1 would be ~14.4M and years 2-5 would be ~9.8M

Point being, due to the pro-rating of the first year cap hit for a player who holds out, there is a pretty tight deadline for Mitch to sign.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Bozak = career high
JVR = career high
Kadri = career high in goals
Hyman = career high
JT = career high

For vets playing with a 19-20yo that is pretty impressive.

I'm sure it's all just a giant, massive, colossal, coincidence.

It isn't, but...

Hyman - 1 more point.
JvR - 1 more point.
Bozak - 4 points above his career pace.
JT - 2 more points than his previously best, but that season that was good for #2 in the league.
Kadri - Goals instead of points, tied a previous best, Marner was only there for half that season.

It speaks to his quality that they all do that well with him, but it's not a huge deviation from the norm for these guys.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

It isn't, but...

Hyman - 1 more point.
JvR - 1 more point.
Bozak - 4 points above his career pace.
JT - 2 more points than his previously best, but that season that was good for #2 in the league.
Kadri - Goals instead of points, tied a previous best, Marner was only there for half that season.

It speaks to his quality that they all do that well with him, but it's not a huge deviation from the norm for these guys.

I’d say Tavares has a history of boosting players with huge deviation from their norm. From that lens Marner would just be another statistic, accurate or not.

 

[ajp4to]

Bozak = career high
JVR = career high
Kadri = career high in goals
Hyman = career high
JT = career high

For vets playing with a 19-20yo that is pretty impressive.

I'm sure it's all just a giant, massive, colossal, coincidence.

Doesn't this mean that he should be paid as an excellent player (which he is)? Say as the 11th highest salary in the NHL? Or as his camp wants, more than every player ahead of him in the scoring race (11), except McDavid? At some point, you have to accept the reality of the situation.

 

[MyBudJT]

I find the diminishing of Marner's 94 point accomplishment around here amusing...

 

[JT AM da real deal]

We don’t know that.

What we know is that Marner’s camp wants a shorter deal.

And the compensation would be 4 draft picks.

Doesn’t take a genius to deduce that 4 picks is a steep price for a short term deal.

We have some insight in that CBJ have reportedly talked to the Leafs about a trade and have talked to the Marner camp about his contract.

A trade would lessen the package of assets CBJ would have to give up and if they are kicking the tires, they are well aware of the price.

The discussions would end real quick. The Leafs would say the only guy on ur team we are interested in a Marner trade is Jones. That would end things right there. and CBJ not giving up 4 1st rounders for a 5 year Marner deal. so this one would die very quickly.

 

[ajp4to]

I find the diminishing of Marner's 94 point accomplishment around here amusing...

No one is diminishing his accomplishment, its what his camp thinks his worth is, that is amusing...

 

[MyBudJT]

No one is diminishing his accomplishment, its what his camp thinks his worth is, that is amusing...

What do you think a 94 point winger is worth?

 

[IPS]

I find the diminishing of Marner's 94 point accomplishment around here amusing...

I'll change the pace a bit then.

Marner's 94 points was actually amazing. When you compare his PP time to other people in his point range, he got the lowest. If you scale up his PP time to what Rantanen got, you're looking at a very possible 100+ point season for Marner. So essentially, Marner could possibly be a 100+ point player with more favorable usage.

Expanding on the Rantanen comparison, you can easily argue that Mikko had the better linemates. Landeskog is far and away a better player than Hyman and Mackinnon is no doubt better than Tavares (not by a whole bunch though).

Quite a player no doubt.

 

[MyBudJT]

I'll change the pace a bit then.

Marner's 94 points was actually amazing. When you compare his PP time to other people in his point range, he got the lowest. If you scale up his PP time to what Rantanen got, you're looking at a very possible 100+ point season for Marner. So essentially, Marner could possibly be a 100+ point player with more favorable usage.

Expanding on the Rantanen comparison, you can easily argue that Mikko had the better linemates. Landeskog is far and away a better player than Hyman and Mackinnon is no doubt better than Tavares (not by a whole bunch though).

Quite a player no doubt.

Not just PP time, but PP success. One would expect PP success to go up next season.