Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[Pookie]

After one and a half years they upped his ice time and responibility. Since that time he has scored at the same rate. He did it with Kadri and PM there is no reason to downplay his skills.

Not sure if you are following the logic here at JF Boards

Two years ago... all we heard from Kadri fanatics was that Komarov was dragging him down.

He then got paired with Marner and got himself out of his horrendous slump.

If linemates were an issue... Marner was the solution.

Fast forward to today.... Marner has no skill. Playing with JT inflated MARNER’s numbers.

Even though Marner was said to have helped Kadri to a massive rebound AND JT had the best year of his career playing with Marner.... there is absolutely no correlation.

Marner as a playmaker is a bogus theory because someone said so.

Now that you are up to speed as to how things work around here... carry on.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Lets go there......

2016-2017
Matthews 40 goals 69pts (82 games)
Marner 19 goals 61 pts (82 games)

2017-2018
Matthews 34 goals 63pts (62 games played) *point per game
Marner 22 goals 69 pts (82 games)

2018-2019
Matthews 36 goals 73 pts (68 games played) *Point per game
Marner 26 goals 94 pts *point per game

Matthews 205pts in 215GP
Marner 224pts in 241GP

Who is closer to being a point per game player in the NHL?

clearly its Matthews.

Matthews SMOKED Marner over their rookie and sophomore seasons. Its not even close.

And some people value goals more than assists (even primary). Me for instance.

 

[jfc64]

Future Stanley Cup stats (mean):

Mitchell Marner: 14g 4 + 9 = 13
William Nylander 13 g 3 + 8 = 11

 

[Notsince67]

Carlo has it all wrong, yes Marner has more overall points but he also has played 26 more games in that 2 year span. He also has averaged more ice-time per game then Matthews per game played.

In the end saying Marner is the better player is ludicrous!!! What does Matthews point totals equal with the same amount of games and ice-time. Pro-rate that and then you may have a point. But without doing the math, I'm sure Matthews blows Marner away in points if all things are equal.

So sitting out 21% of the season is a net positive?

 

[MyBudJT]

Well ****, dom replies with the same amount of ineptitude on production analysis as Carlo. I broke down primary production here with a few other comparables if interested, ordered from left to right by projected contract cap%: Speculation: - Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 6

IMHO, Marner doesn't produce sufficiently more P1 overall than Matthews to sway my own value on goal scoring and center v.s. playmaking and winger. But as I've said before, damn it's great to have both.

Lot's of interesting discussion can be had about QoT, QoC, ZS%, value on PK etc... but if the discussion is production that chart is the raw rates of offensive contribution.

Good work, but I don't like that you averaged the 3 ELC years. Year 1 and 2 are largely irrelevant today...

 

[Bomber0104]

I too just Marner to sign and end this. But it should be pretty obvious that some just like to tow the corporate line whatever the situation is.

The team put themselves into this situation. Some/many seem to want to overlook this.

I think the moment we signed Tavares, we were headed for trouble. Our big three got some ideas from that on what kind of dollars to expect for a given level of production, and it set a precedence of sort. Mitch happens to be last of the big three to sign, so he inherits the worst circumstance.

Again, before the conformist crowd swoops in, I just want Marner to sign so we can see an end to this.

I don't remember this amount of anger towards Nylander after he decided to skip camp and almost half the season.

There was a bit of backlash but nothing quite like this, and it's not like Nylander was our leading scorer over the past two seasons or anything...

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I like how staying healthy and playing 26 more games over the past two seasons is somehow seen as a negative

Agreed. If a player is hurt and not able to produce, its not exactly a good situation for the team, and one that they'd hope doesn't repeat itself. You can see why they would worry about this kind of thing and a favour the healthier guy to some smaller extent.

 

[Sypher04]

I too just Marner to sign and end this. But it should be pretty obvious that some just like to tow the corporate line whatever the situation is.

The team put themselves into this situation. Some/many seem to want to overlook this.

I think the moment we signed Tavares, we were headed for trouble. Our big three got some ideas from that on what kind of dollars to expect for a given level of production, and it set a precedence of sort. Mitch happens to be last of the big three to sign, so he inherits the worst circumstance.

Again, before the conformist crowd swoops in, I just want Marner to sign so we can see an end to this.

I think there should be and needs to be a limit to how high you go on Marner's contract, but I generally agree with the sentiment of just getting him signed. We just can't blow our brains out in the process.
The team put themselves in this situation, but so did Marner tbh by his camp making it clear they wanted to go last. There's no way they didn't anticipate the cap could be really tight by this point in time.

I generally disagree on Tavares set precedent, but I do agree the moment we signed him is when we were headed for trouble. It was clear the cap would be a very significant looming challenge at that point. This said, Tavares being a UFA meant a) we were in theory in a bidding war to get him and b) we were buying entirely UFA years. His contract shouldn't have been the catalyst for what RFA asks would then become. I think the contracts that "broke" RFA second deals so to speak very clearly can be tracked back to Draisaitl & Eichel. We are witnessing a shift and I firmly believe it started there. Matthews' contract compounded the issue by not requiring him to sign 8 years to get the full payday.

I think anything up to around ~10.5-11M for even 5/6 years and you have to make the deal. You don't allow yourself to lose a player like Marner, you just don't.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Good work, but I don't like that you averaged the 3 ELC years. Year 1 and 2 are largely irrelevant today...

I think we've went back and forth a little bit on this before so we'll just need to agree to disagree on the impact of a single year v.s. body of work during an ELC and how that should (or does) impact the overall contract structure in the end.

 

[Sypher04]

I don't remember this amount of anger towards Nylander after he decided to skip camp and almost half the season.

There was a bit of backlash but nothing quite like this, and it's not like Nylander was our leading scorer over the past two seasons or anything...

I remember this kind of anger personally...
But tbh, even if it wasn't quite the same level, it's somewhat understandable (I'm not saying justified) by the fact that Marner is that much more important to the team.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

Carlo's takes are pretty embarassing considering he's a former player. you expect that sort of potato-level analysis from your typical HFBoards poster, not a guy who's supposed to know the game.

It's almost as if playing the game doesn't automatically validate one's opinions.

Go figure.

 

[Sypher04]

You want to double check your stats?

He's looking at total ice time and total production and total production / 60. Not 5v5.

There are a litany of contextual modifiers we could apply to these stats tbh.
The only thing that matters imo is that both players are amazing and we're a far worse team missing either one.

 

[MyBudJT]

I think we've went back and forth a little bit on this before so we'll just need to agree to disagree on the impact of a single year v.s. body of work during an ELC and how that should (or does) impact the overall contract structure in the end.

Yeah, we might not get on the same page here.

For the record, I'm not saying they're completely irrelevant. But I think a 21 year old that has shown a steeper development curve is even more valuable than a 21 year old that shows a slower or relatively flat development curve.

What a 21 year old does as a 19 year old really shouldn't be weighted the same as their 20 year old season, which shouldn't be weighted as much as their 21 year old season.

 

[ULF_55]

Agreed. If a player is hurt and not able to produce, its not exactly a good situation for the team, and one that they'd hope doesn't repeat itself. You can see why they would worry about this kind of thing and a favour the healthier guy to some smaller extent.

Being injured is not a positive, but it doesn't make the healthy player better, unless we think Crosby was the 9th. most talented player in 2011-2012 for Pittsburgh.

He was 9th. most productive ... but that isn't the same as the 9th. best player.

Regardless, Marner is very talented play making winger and should be compensated appropriately within the comparables of players in his position.

Tavares increased his career high by 2 points in a higher scoring season playing with Marner.

 

[hullsy47]

Nylander sure wasn't worried about signing Gardiner when everyone was still a possibility.

Gardiner was really not a core peice and him nor being signed right now leads people to believe he is not worth more than he was making
u just dont resign ceci if gardner would have accepted 5 mill
if marner was offered 10 mill long term and didn't take it his dad must be insulted cause unless he wants out of Toronto that is ludicrous

 

[ToneDog]

I think there should be and needs to be a limit to how high you go on Marner's contract, but I generally agree with the sentiment of just getting him signed. We just can't blow our brains out in the process.
The team put themselves in this situation, but so did Marner tbh by his camp making it clear they wanted to go last. There's no way they didn't anticipate the cap could be really tight by this point in time.

I generally disagree on Tavares set precedent, but I do agree the moment we signed him is when we were headed for trouble. It was clear the cap would be a very significant looming challenge at that point. This said, Tavares being a UFA meant a) we were in theory in a bidding war to get him and b) we were buying entirely UFA years. His contract shouldn't have been the catalyst for what RFA asks would then become. I think the contracts that "broke" RFA second deals so to speak very clearly can be tracked back to Draisaitl & Eichel. We are witnessing a shift and I firmly believe it started there. Matthews' contract compounded the issue by not requiring him to sign 8 years to get the full payday.

I think anything up to around ~10.5-11M for even 5/6 years and you have to make the deal. You don't allow yourself to lose a player like Marner, you just don't.

Talk about caving in. I hope Dubas does not fold like that the closer we get to Oct. 2nd.

 

[Havoc]

I don't remember this amount of anger towards Nylander after he decided to skip camp and almost half the season.

There was a bit of backlash but nothing quite like this, and it's not like Nylander was our leading scorer over the past two seasons or anything...

Nylander saga was one of the darkest periods on this board. The trolls follow him to this day. The top liked comment on Maple Leafs IG was someone saying that you should reconsider your life choices if you own a Nylander jersey in the first place (regarding the change to #88).

Marner saga doesn't even compare. The debate has mostly been Matthews v Marner as well. Nobody actually hates Marner and everyone wants him playing 20+ a night. Context is important here.

Then you have guys like Diceman whose only purpose is to rile others up so I think what happens is people confuse their dislike and anger towards other posters with anger and dislike towards players that the posters endorse.

 

[Mess]

Marner didn’t create Dubie dollars. Amazes me how the blame game works around here.

It’s funny, because any commentary I hear on sports radio can completely see why Marner has a high ask given the other contracts. You can disagree, use different stats to cobble together various arguments, but to suggest the kid is out of line asking for big money after how Matthews cashed in, well...

I want the most team friendly deal possible, because it benefits the Leafs. That said, I don’t see either the Nylander or Matthews deals as anything but maximum benefit to the player. Now Marner comes up with these precedents set, internal team metrics, and it’s suddenly greed. A lot of commentary operates in a vacuum.

Well said ..

This is self inflicted by the Leafs organization and previous management decisions.

I like the analogy previously given of considering the 3 Amigos of the Leafs as 3 of your own children and after giving 2 of your kids very player friendly deals, suddenly now when the 3 kid is up, you decide its time for cost constraint and complain or about their greed, when all they want to do is be treated equally to their other brothers in arms here.

 

[Gary Nylund]

No...but if you're going take a job as a hockey analyst....

I consider Carlo to be more of an entertainer then an analyst myself. Also, if the issue is that he's not qualified for the job, that's on the people offering him the job, not him.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Marner didn’t create Dubie dollars. Amazes me how the blame game works around here.

It’s funny, because any commentary I hear on sports radio can completely see why Marner has a high ask given the other contracts. You can disagree, use different stats to cobble together various arguments, but to suggest the kid is out of line asking for big money after how Matthews cashed in, well...

I want the most team friendly deal possible, because it benefits the Leafs. That said, I don’t see either the Nylander or Matthews deals as anything but maximum benefit to the player. Now Marner comes up with these precedents set, internal team metrics, and it’s suddenly greed. A lot of commentary operates in a vacuum.

There is your first problem, because they definitely were not.

 

[Sypher04]

Talk about caving in. I hope Dubas does not fold like that the closer we get to Oct. 2nd.

Don't get me wrong. I don't want it that high, but if we're looking at a medium length term deal at 10.5 vs the player holding out, and say optimistically we get him at 9.5 if we push, I'm not sure sure that's a fight worth entrenching on. If you're gonna overpay anyone, you do it with your star players. We have a legit chance to win cups with this group. I'm not in the business of making any of them feel like they went underappreciated.

 

[Bomber0104]

I remember this kind of anger personally...
But tbh, even if it wasn't quite the same level, it's somewhat understandable (I'm not saying justified) by the fact that Marner is that much more important to the team.

It's July...

Let that sink in.

Imagine what this place will be like if Marner's unsigned come October.

 

[81Leafs50]

And some people value goals more than assists (even primary). Me for instance.

I look at goals and assists as gold and silver. You have to look at the total package.

Goals will always be worth more.

But you need lots of different players to make a good team.

 

[Anthrax442]

When players hold out for more than fair market value, fans get angry. I don't know what you're confused about. I don't understand what you're trying to say is hypocritical.

Other fan bases haven't turned on their high profile rfa's... but those players have behaved differently.

Aho ended up signing for fair market value. Point came right out and said he won't talk to other teams and is still negotiating in good faith. And nobody's heard a peep from the Rantanen camp.

Pretty much no leaf fans turned on the Nylander camp unitl after the season started. The same would probably happen with Point and Rantanen.

But the specific words/actions from Paul and the agent have rubbed a lot leaf fans the wrong way. And, in my opinion, with good reason.

I am not confused about anything. It's a negotiation. I don't think neither the Marner side nor the management lost any sleep o ver this, but the fans are ready to ship the player the were in love with a few months ago, because of what? An imaginary line where they think some value lies. Pretty pathetic.

 

[thewave]

then why are you here?

EDIT: Hilarious comment too:


Oh yeah, no planning for the future in 2015 when they traded Kessel, got assets and tanked.

We literally just blew assets for rentals and cap space. They always always always refuse to sacrifice a year to gain assets and push hard the next, it's always a rush job. Always. How old are you? 22 lol, this team is notorious for rushing and bleeding assets.

I said sell Jake before last season, take a step back, make some moves and find more solid ground. They never do that. The only difference is they usually pay Jason Spezzas of the world 6m. That's the only dif

 

[Sypher04]

Well said ..

This is self inflicted by the Leafs organization and previous management decisions.

I like the analogy previously given of considering the 3 Amigos of the Leafs as 3 of your own children and after giving 2 of your kids very player friendly deals, suddenly now when the 3 kid is up, you decide its time for cost constraint and complain or about their greed, when all they want to do is be treated equally to their other brothers in arms here.

I don't see this necessarily as what's happening.
Let's say for arguments sake that Marner's best comparable league-wide is Kucherov at 9.5/8
If the Leafs were offering him say 10/6 with all the perks of up front signing bonus money and all that jazz, that would be by definition a very player friendly deal and frankly an overpayment based on his comparables. The idea that it has to be Matthews' money however, if that's what is actually the ask from the Marner camp, doesn't represent simply a player friendly deal, it represents a probably 30% overpayment. This is where things break down imo.