Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[justafan22]

All in all what I see is the Leafs of today are no different than the JFJ Leafs. Muskoka 5 is being rebuilt, big contracts and overpays handed out. No planning for the future, spending assets for cap. It's the same old story. They'll win a championship when I see it.

What a joke organization 50 Years running. My Buds never deserved a fate so cruel and neither have the fans.

then why are you here?

EDIT: Hilarious comment too:

No planning for the future, spending assets for cap. It's the same old story.

Oh yeah, no planning for the future in 2015 when they traded Kessel, got assets and tanked.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Interesting take from the agent given that we definitively know it was Nylander that caved, not Dubas.

I get the impression that for Divisional/Conference rivals, having Marner at an impasse in contract negotiations is a good thing, unless there is another RFA they have that's holding out. Point is the only one I can think of. They might think a Marner sitting the year out might actually be a good thing.

Like Friedman has suggested, I doubt if any team is willing to trade away qty 4 1st rounders for a 3 year term. Hence, the contract impasse and/or Marner lock out might ironically be a little more incentive to not make an offer sheet.

 

[Sypher04]

I get the impression that for Divisional/Conference rivals, having Marner at an impasse in contract negotiations is a good thing, unless there is another RFA they have that's holding out. Point is the only one I can think of. They might think a Marner sitting the year out might actually be a good thing.

Like Friedman has suggested, I doubt if any team is willing to let qty 4 1st rounders for a 3 year term. Hence, the contract impasse and/or Marner lock out might ironically be a little more incentive to not make an offer sheet.

I just can't see any scenario where the Marner camp and the Leafs let this get to a full season holdout. It's just not happening. I'm sure other teams would love that, but it seems completely unrealistic imo.

 

[BlueForever75]

People's thoughts?

Carlo has it all wrong, yes Marner has more overall points but he also has played 26 more games in that 2 year span. He also has averaged more ice-time per game then Matthews per game played.

In the end saying Marner is the better player is ludicrous!!! What does Matthews point totals equal with the same amount of games and ice-time. Pro-rate that and then you may have a point. But without doing the math, I'm sure Matthews blows Marner away in points if all things are equal.

 

[MyBudJT]

Carlo has it all wrong, yes Marner has more overall points but he also has played 26 more games in that 2 year span. He also has averaged more ice-time per game then Matthews per game played.

In the end saying Marner is the better player is ludicrous!!! What does Matthews point totals equal with the same amount of games and ice-time. Pro-rate that and then you may have a point. But without doing the math, I'm sure Matthews blows Marner away in points if all things are equal.

Not many people are saying Marner is better. They're saying that Marner is as good (or at least in the conversation with) Matthews.

 

[Morbo]

Carlo's takes are pretty embarassing considering he's a former player. you expect that sort of potato-level analysis from your typical HFBoards poster, not a guy who's supposed to know the game.

 

[Sypher04]

Not many people are saying Marner is better. They're saying that Marner is as good (or at least in the conversation with) Matthews.

And yet, the NHL has created a market where being in the conversation with Matthews doesn't necessarily make him worth Matthews' contract. And such is the crux of the issue.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I just can't see any scenario where the Marner camp and the Leafs let this get to a full season holdout. It's just not happening. I'm sure other teams would love that, but it seems completely unrealistic imo.

Perhaps yes, and lets hope so. I was just looking at this from the perspective of teams that we compete with and trying to see if there is angle there that might be overlooked that could play into this situation. I think division rivals (and probably Conference rivals as well) really like the idea that Mitch could miss the year. Even getting the deal done in late November would be a good outcome for them as well.

But yes, its in the hands of Mitch & the Leafs.

 

[MyBudJT]

People's thoughts?

I think this Dom guy is being a little dishonest by looking at /60 rates. Marner has played significantly more time short handed.

Even things like Zone starts influence production:
Defensive Zone:
Marner: 47.5%
Matthews: 41.6%

Offensive Zone:
Marner: 52.5%
Matthews: 58.4%

Carlo was making a point, and its valid. Marner should at least be in the conversation of being in the same tier of Matthews.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Carlo's takes are pretty embarassing considering he's a former player. you expect that sort of potato-level analysis from your typical HFBoards poster, not a guy who's supposed to know the game.

The fact that the guy was a good hockey player doesn't mean he has even average ability to think analytically.

 

[Morbo]

Carlo has it all wrong, yes Marner has more overall points but he also has played 26 more games in that 2 year span. He also has averaged more ice-time per game then Matthews per game played.

In the end saying Marner is the better player is ludicrous!!! What does Matthews point totals equal with the same amount of games and ice-time. Pro-rate that and then you may have a point. But without doing the math, I'm sure Matthews blows Marner away in points if all things are equal.

Yup.

Marner is a terrific player.

But he's not Auston Matthews, or even close.

 

[Notsince67]

Well let's say for arguments sake that the Leafs were offering 10.5/5 and Marner was stuck at 11.6/5 and at the last minute he dropped it to 10.8/5 like you said, then yes, I'd say he caved. I think it entirely depends on the state of offers on the both ends, but I think the idea that the party who phoned last minute was the one who "caved" or made the significant move in position to get a deal done is a reasonable one in most scenarios.

Maybe. I am not a negotiator professionally it is really hard to measure intent. It was my understanding that the contract that was signed could have been done before the season started but who knows. Perhaps both side refused to cede ground during the negotiation to prevent a massive degrading of their positions if the other party didn't agree. Brinkmanship can often impede a negotiation.
I highly suspect that this time around all cards will be shown before the season is underway. Either Dubas says take it (best offer) or we will shop you-or marner's camp will say we would like to move on from this team if you dont offer this (best offer). Any situation where Marner leaves will guarantee that offers made will get out into the public.

 

[81Leafs50]

In the real world where is Mathews in assists since he was drafted or points.

Lets go there......

2016-2017
Matthews 40 goals 69pts (82 games)
Marner 19 goals 61 pts (82 games)

2017-2018
Matthews 34 goals 63pts (62 games played) *point per game
Marner 22 goals 69 pts (82 games)

2018-2019
Matthews 36 goals 73 pts (68 games played) *Point per game
Marner 26 goals 94 pts *point per game

Matthews 205pts in 215GP
Marner 224pts in 241GP

Who is closer to being a point per game player in the NHL?

clearly its Matthews.

Matthews SMOKED Marner over their rookie and sophomore seasons. Its not even close.

 

[Morbo]

The fact that the guy was a good hockey player doesn't mean he has even average ability to think analytically.

No...but if you're going take a job as a hockey analyst....

 

[Sypher04]

I highly suspect that this time around all cards will be shown before the season is underway. Either Dubas says take it (best offer) or we will shop you-or marner's camp will say we would like to move on from this team if you dont offer this (best offer). Any situation where Marner leaves will guarantee that offers made will get out into the public.

I tend to agree. I still tbh am not worried. I fully expect a deal will get done.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I think this Dom guy is being a little dishonest by looking at /60 rates. Marner has played significantly more time short handed.

Even things like Zone starts influence production:
Defensive Zone:
Marner: 47.5%
Matthews: 41.6%

Offensive Zone:
Marner: 52.5%
Matthews: 58.4%

Carlo was making a point, and its valid. Marner should at least be in the conversation of being in the same tier of Matthews.

No one includes PK in /60 production stats, unless it explicitly says "All situations". It would be by default 5v5. Carlo's point is not close to valid because it's just looking at total points, combining PP offence with 5v5. It's pretty pointless and there are far better tools to look at actual offensive production if that was the goal. /60 is a great start.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Marner didn’t create Dubie dollars. Amazes me how the blame game works around here.

It’s funny, because any commentary I hear on sports radio can completely see why Marner has a high ask given the other contracts. You can disagree, use different stats to cobble together various arguments, but to suggest the kid is out of line asking for big money after how Matthews cashed in, well...

I want the most team friendly deal possible, because it benefits the Leafs. That said, I don’t see either the Nylander or Matthews deals as anything but maximum benefit to the player. Now Marner comes up with these precedents set, internal team metrics, and it’s suddenly greed. A lot of commentary operates in a vacuum.

I too just want Marner to sign and end this. But it should be pretty obvious that some just like to tow the corporate line whatever the situation is.

The team put themselves into this situation. Some/many seem to want to overlook this.

I think the moment we signed Tavares, we were headed for trouble. Our big three got some ideas from that on what kind of dollars to expect for a given level of production, and it set a precedence of sort. Mitch happens to be last of the big three to sign, so he inherits the worst circumstance.

Again, before the conformist crowd swoops in, I just want Marner to sign so we can see an end to this.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The fact that the guy was a good hockey player doesn't mean he has even average ability to think analytically.

In fact likely means we took more shots to the head than most. and talk with our heart more than a GM would but that's all ok. and likely did not go to college. That's hockey as they say and we can all disagree on many different issues and its ok. When u r in a fight it has nothing to do with analytics anyways.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Carlo has it all wrong, yes Marner has more overall points but he also has played 26 more games in that 2 year span. He also has averaged more ice-time per game then Matthews per game played.

In the end saying Marner is the better player is ludicrous!!! What does Matthews point totals equal with the same amount of games and ice-time. Pro-rate that and then you may have a point. But without doing the math, I'm sure Matthews blows Marner away in points if all things are equal.

People are also forgetting Matthews was also not himself for significant stretches after his injuries, especially 2 seasons ago mid season when he was clearly playing injured. Too bad we still haven't seen the best of Auston. Hopefully this coming season shuts down a lot of nonsense. The guy is capable of being a top 5 forward in the league. The first 20+ games last season looked like he was inarguably there before the shoulder injury.

And even with the missed time and dealing with playing injured, I say he still has been significantly more valuable than Marner.

 

[MyBudJT]

No one includes PK in /60 production stats, unless it explicitly says "All situations". It would be by default 5v5. Carlo's point is not close to valid because it's just looking at total points, combining PP offence with 5v5. It's pretty pointless and there are far better tools to look at actual offensive production if that was the goal. /60 is a great start.

You want to double check your stats?

He's looking at total ice time and total production and total production / 60. Not 5v5.

 

[MyBudJT]

The fact that the guy was a good hockey player doesn't mean he has even average ability to think analytically.

True. I was talking to a guy that had previously been drafted to the Leafs this weekend. When we got talking about hockey, he was saying Matthews and Hoffman and similar caliber players...

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Carlo's takes are pretty embarassing considering he's a former player. you expect that sort of potato-level analysis from your typical HFBoards poster, not a guy who's supposed to know the game.

I never knew potato was could be a level. Learn something new every day.

 

[Bomber0104]

Carlo has it all wrong, yes Marner has more overall points but he also has played 26 more games in that 2 year span. He also has averaged more ice-time per game then Matthews per game played.

In the end saying Marner is the better player is ludicrous!!! What does Matthews point totals equal with the same amount of games and ice-time. Pro-rate that and then you may have a point. But without doing the math, I'm sure Matthews blows Marner away in points if all things are equal.

I like how staying healthy and playing 26 more games over the past two seasons is somehow seen as a negative

 

[JT AM da real deal]

No...but if you're going take a job as a hockey analyst....

It has nothing to do with analytics it is about how many people tune in and listen. If show gets a lot of listeners then it gets ratings and ads and $$$ is made baby. and you get more $$$ on ur next contract. being contreversial works. it attracts listnerers. the boring same old same old gets u fired.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You want to double check your stats?

He's looking at total ice time and total production and total production / 60. Not 5v5.

Well shit, dom replies with the same amount of ineptitude on production analysis as Carlo. I broke down primary production here with a few other comparables if interested, ordered from left to right by projected contract cap%: Speculation: - Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 6

IMHO, Marner doesn't produce sufficiently more P1 overall than Matthews to sway my own value on goal scoring and center v.s. playmaking and winger. But as I've said before, damn it's great to have both.

Lot's of interesting discussion can be had about QoT, QoC, ZS%, value on PK etc... but if the discussion is production that chart is the raw rates of offensive contribution.