Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[MyBudJT]

You say to-may-to, I say to-mah-to.
When your Prime motivation is ego driven (e.g. being paid equal to Matthews), it becomes greed, IMO.

Which contract isn't "ego driven" then? Only one I can really think of is LeBanc... the rest want to match their comparables.

 

[Thissiteisgarbage]

Which contract isn't "ego driven" then? Only one I can really think of is LeBanc... the rest want to match their comparables.

Well...if Marner is turning down $10 million a year or something to do something most of us would dream to do - I call him greedy. Sorry you don't like that. His actual value to society is next to zero. I don't just consider the market within the NHL.

 

[thewave]

You are wrong on just about every possible level, this past season Mitch scored 26 goals, that seems like he is putting the puck in the net. For RW's that is tied for 10th place, one goal behind 7th most. For his position is is among the best goal scorers in the league.

Marner's Sh% in his first year, 10.8%, second year 11.3%, third year 11.2%. Seems pretty consistent no matter who he plays with. BTW any player above 10% Sh% with 200+ SOG, is considered a sniper.

What you fail to recognize and have made an uninformed assumption that Mitch's stats went up just because he was playing with Tavares, well.... Mitch played 281 more minutes this year than the previous season and 331 more minutes this past season than his first season. Any player of Marner's ilk who has that sort of bump in 1st/2nd line minutes should see a corresponding bump in his stats.

I would say you have it backwards, Mitch is not dependent on a scorer (as previously illustrated, Mitch is among the best goal scoring RW in the game), scorers are dependent on Mitch. It was widely reported Tavares came to Toronto wanting to play with Mitch and Matthews repeatedly said last season that he would like to have Mitch as his linemate.

Mitch is every bit as good as Kane and Mitch deserves to be paid like an elite RW.

Patrick Kane (age 21) 3rd season - 30G (even strength 21G) 58A 88P
Mitch Marner (age 21) 3rd season - 26G (even strength 22G) 68A 94P

You are entitled to your opinion, no matter how misguided it is, but you are not entitled to your own facts.

Mitch is upper level at everything he does and that is coming from a guy that is not a Marner fan.

I don't know Blues, all these stats just muddy the waters and are used by agents to make their clients look rosy. My dream is that the NHL had base salary + bonuses. The league is already that sort of model anyways, may as well equalize the NHL. A player is a player until they do more and then they should become entitled to more proceeds.

I bet nearly everyone here would love it if Athletes made 1m + 1m star bonus base if applicable + x for goals and y for assists + z for titles + + + D and Gs would have a suitable rate as well. It's the way it should be. Perform, get paid

 

[81Leafs50]

No one believed you ever liked Marner dude. It was funny seeing you pretend though.

you can like Marner and still have a take that Matthews killed it stat wise.

 

[Bluelines]

Hasn't Matthews been injured I some capacity 5 yrs in a row? He played a full season here in his rookie year but some of it with a known injury.

Name one player who has not had some sort of known/unknown injury and played through it? Hockey is a contact sport, you tend to get injured playing, if you don't you are not doing it right.

 

[Bluelines]

I don't know Blues, all these stats just muddy the waters and are used by agents to make their clients look rosy. My dream is that the NHL had base salary + bonuses. The league is already that sort of model anyways, may as well equalize the NHL. A player is a player until they do more and then they should become entitled to more proceeds.

I bet nearly everyone here would love it if Athletes made 1m + 1m star bonus base if applicable + x for goals and y for assists + z for titles + + + D and Gs would have a suitable rate as well. It's the way it should be. Perform, get paid

Whut?

 

[thewave]

Name one player who has not had some sort of known/unknown injury and played through it? Hockey is a contact sport, you tend to get injured playing, if you don't you are not doing it right.

The word is his upper body back and shoulders are kinda shoddy at this point.

 

[Sypher04]

The word is his upper body back and shoulders are kinda shoddy at this point.

I've seen nothing to suggest that.

 

[thewave]

Whut?

You can make anyone and anything look pretty with the amount of metrics they throw on the table. It's all BS.

 

[Bluelines]

The word is his upper body back and shoulders are kinda shoddy at this point.

Rumor is this Crosby kid has had multiple brain injuries...shouldn't offer him a long term contract eh? Probably won;t amount to much eh? Probably should release him eh?

 

[thewave]

I've seen nothing to suggest that.

Just hope he doesn't go off the ice holding his arm up again or can play the loose style he did to start last season. If you don't see that Matthews again, you know. Where was first 15 games Matthews this PO series? He wasn't on the ice for us, that's for sure.

 

[Notsince67]

I get that, but by what metric is this QoT being calculated I guess is what I want to dig into. Because I can see an argument that Nylander could maybe be the best of the linemates either had, I'm willing to at least entertain that idea (it wouldn't be by a lot over JVR), but where it loses me is basically the insinuation that Hyman is better than say Kadri/Bozak/Marleau.

It just seems odd to have that conclusion when on the surface, again I have to look more into Marner's usage and this statistic calculation, but it seems entirely arguable that Marner had comparable or better linemates than Matthews did most of that season.

I already posted the % of time with respective centers.
I don't know what to tell you other than I didn't make the metric up and it is used to compare quality of team mates and is cited everywhere. Stats are available on Corsica if you want to look them up.
Better in hockey is a hard thing to measure because nothing will correlate perfectly to what one might be focused on from an output perspective because there is a lot of outputs. That being said, a percentile difference of that magnitude, while not highly accurate to what I consider to be a high confidence interval at the micro level, leaves little question about whether it can determine a binary question of better or not better. If you can prove this to be false, you have just upended a pillar of hockey analytics.

 

[Sypher04]

Just hope he doesn't go off the ice holding his arm up again or can play the loose style he did to start last season. If you don't see that Matthews again, you know. Where was first 15 games Matthews this PO series? He wasn't on the ice for us, that's for sure.

Matthews was really good in the playoffs, sooooo, not sure what you're on about.

 

[Notsince67]

I get that, but by what metric is this QoT being calculated I guess is what I want to dig into. Because I can see an argument that Nylander could maybe be the best of the linemates either had, I'm willing to at least entertain that idea (it wouldn't be by a lot over JVR), but where it loses me is basically the insinuation that Hyman is better than say Kadri/Bozak/Marleau.

It just seems odd to have that conclusion when on the surface, again I have to look more into Marner's usage and this statistic calculation, but it seems entirely arguable that Marner had comparable or better linemates than Matthews did most of that season.

I already posted the % of time with respective centers.
I don't know what to tell you other than I didn't make the metric up and it is used to compare quality of team mates and is cited everywhere. Stats are available on Corsica if you want to look them up.
Better in hockey is a hard thing to measure because nothing will correlate perfectly to what one might be focused on from an output perspective because there is a lot of outputs. That being said, a percentile difference of that magnitude, while not highly accurate to what I consider to be a high confidence interval at the micro level, leaves little question about whether it can determine a binary question of better or not better. If you can prove this to be false, you have just upended a pillar of hockey analytics.

 

[thewave]

Rumor is this Crosby kid has had multiple brain injuries...shouldn't offer him a long term contract eh? Probably won;t amount to much eh? Probably should release him eh?

That's up for the guys managing the risks. They decide which to take and which not to. Doesn't mean the risks aren't there.

 

[MyBudJT]

Well...if Marner is turning down $10 million a year or something to do something most of us would dream to do - I call him greedy. Sorry you don't like that. His actual value to society is next to zero. I don't just consider the market within the NHL.

LOL "Sorry you don't like that"

I think most people would take 100K to play in the NHL. I still don't get your point...

 

[thewave]

Matthews was really good in the playoffs, sooooo, not sure what you're on about.

He was nowhere near the level of his first 15 games. Did you not watch? He was checking, driving the net, using his body and destroying the league. I was convinced he was the best player in the NHL or becoming that before my eyes.

It was toned down Lindros exceptional performances.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Just hope he doesn't go off the ice holding his arm up again or can play the loose style he did to start last season. If you don't see that Matthews again, you know. Where was first 15 games Matthews this PO series? He wasn't on the ice for us, that's for sure.

Down from goal per game to just a 70 goal pace, what a bum.

 

[Sypher04]

I already posted the % of time with respective centers.
I don't know what to tell you other than I didn't make the metric up and it is used to compare quality of team mates and is cited everywhere. Stats are available on Corsica if you want to look them up.
Better in hockey is a hard thing to measure because nothing will correlate perfectly to what one might be focused on from an output perspective because there is a lot of outputs. That being said, a percentile difference of that magnitude, while not highly accurate to what I consider to be a high confidence interval at the micro level, leaves little question about whether it can determine a binary question of better or not better. If you can prove this to be false, you have just upended a pillar of hockey analytics.

No, for sure, and I'm not even trying to be combative here at all, I'm just genuinely perplexed how the stats here could imo get this so wrong compared to what I have seen.
I mean, to be fair, I don't even particularly care for Bozak and JVR as hockey players, they both left some to be desired in terms of two-way play, but both guys were routinely 50+ point players for us, JVR at around 30 goals multiple times, so I could maybe see how maybe this would be less than favorable if this is another Corsi based stat, but I do think that underappreciates their offensive skill as they were often making pretty plays more than overwhelming with shots. That only accounts for half the year though, Kadri/Marleau were more defensively sound partners, so again, if it's Corsi based (and I don't know that it is, I'm splitballing) then I'd have expected that to normalize a bit. I really don't know. It's kinda fascinating.

 

[Thissiteisgarbage]

LOL "Sorry you don't like that"

I think most people would take 100K to play in the NHL. I still don't get your point...

Pretty simple point I'm making. If you are offered $10 million and turn it down, you are ungrateful and obviously more concerned with yourself than what is objectively fair. Also known as: 'greed'.

 

[Sypher04]

He was nowhere near the level of his first 15 games. Did you not watch? He was checking, driving the net, using his body and destroying the league. I was convinced he was the best player in the NHL or becoming that before my eyes.

It was toned down Lindros exceptional performances.

Oh I agree, he was a machine in the early going. Safest bet imo is that he was never fully recovered this season from his injury earlier. In fact... I think he specifically said he wouldn't be back to 100% this season when he came back.

EDIT: actually, that might have been last year that he made that quote. I really don't remember lol.

 

[Bluelines]

You can make anyone and anything look pretty with the amount of metrics they throw on the table. It's all BS.

Goals, Assists, points, minutes played are BS? I guess if you wait long enough you will hear something new. Ya gotta base the players compensation on something. Should we pay players based on nice smiles?

You specifically said Marner relies on other players and he is not a good shooter. Which is patently false, demonstrably false, realistically false. False false...

 

[ShaneFalco]

Here’s what I’ve heard about Marner, and everyone is being quiet, so we’ll see how close to the truth it is. Last Friday, everybody was talking about the Islanders. I think there was another team before that. My belief is that team was Columbus. I think they were thinking about it. From what I heard, and this is not a fight — it didn’t turn into a bad negotiation. Someone said, “Don’t frame it as it turned into a fight between Columbus and the agent.” I think what happened was, if Columbus was going to do it, it had to be for seven years. What I’ve heard Marner was looking for or his side was looking for was less term than that. If you are going to go the full four picks, you’re not giving up four first rounders for three or four years. You’re just not doing that. I think that is why that one fell to the wayside. I’ve had multiple people tell me that they thought, if anybody was going to do it, it was going to be Columbus.

On what the Marner camp wants at this stage:

I think, at the end of the day, he wants to be a Leaf. I think he wants that more than anything else. I think they want him. He just wants it to be at a big number. He wants to be in the Matthews area. That is where we are.

A lot of people were pointing at the Islanders. The rumour going around was 7×12.5. I was really curious when I heard that because I didn’t know if Marner wanted to sign for term in case Toronto didn’t match. I even heard in Toronto that Marner didn’t even want that kind of a term.

I’ve got to tell you: if that happened, 7×12.5, I’m not convinced the Leafs would match it. If he signs anywhere else for that kind of term, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Islanders were high on that list.
Toronto and Marner have talked about a short term deal of two or three years and they’ve talked about six. I think Marner might want something a little bit different, but that’s kind of where they are.

Here’s the thing: What happens if somebody says, “Okay, we are going to offer sheet someone, but we are not doing it in the summer, where they can go 10% over. We are waiting into October.”
I had one prediction from an agent who said, “This is the year where if this goes into November, somebody is missing the full season.” He said, “What happened with Nylander last year is going to hurt the players. Last year, Toronto decided they were all in for the Stanley Cup, so they gave in at the last minute and gave Nylander a really good deal.” He said, “There is going to be someone this year who is looking at their season in November and saying, ‘Yeah, we are not caving in at the last second.’”​

[Leafs Links] Friedman: "Mitch Marner wants to be a Leaf... He wants that more than anything else... He just wants it to be at a big number -- he wants to be in the Matthews area" | Maple Leafs Hotstove

 

[thewave]

[Leafs Links] Friedman: "Mitch Marner wants to be a Leaf... He wants that more than anything else... He just wants it to be at a big number -- he wants to be in the Matthews area" | Maple Leafs Hotstove

That doesn't compute unfortunately. You can have a slice of cake and eat it. You can not have the cake and eat it too, sorry Mitch. See ya in Ohio.

 

[Sypher04]

[Leafs Links] Friedman: "Mitch Marner wants to be a Leaf... He wants that more than anything else... He just wants it to be at a big number -- he wants to be in the Matthews area" | Maple Leafs Hotstove

Interesting take from the agent given that we definitively know it was Nylander that caved, not Dubas.