Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[thewave]

He either got more support or he didn't. Now you shift the goal posts yet again. Are you saying he didn't get more support?

He got treated equal with Nylander. Boston for the most part isolated him as do many top tier teams, stay close and play rough when he doesn't have the puck. Hit him late in a PO series and cover his passing lanes, he doesn't shoot well. That's on him.

 

[Notsince67]

Agreed. I'm so tired of the "on pace" nonsense. The facts are that:

Matthews was injured.
Matthews scored 73 points.

This is not BASHING or BLAMING Matthews, those are just FACTS.

you can take the last 82 regular season games that Matthews played and they still fall short of Marner

 

[Notsince67]

He got treated equal with Nylander. Boston for the most part isolated him as do many top tier teams, stay close and play rough when he doesn't have the puck. Hit him late in a PO series and cover his passing lanes, he doesn't shoot well. That's on him.

What are you on about? Bruce Cassidy has openly talked about needing to find a way to contain Marner. This is just revisionist bs

 

[thewave]

you can take the last 82 regular season games that Matthews played and they still fall short of Marner

He puts the puck in the net. He does it with or without Mitch, just like JT. Marner does not put the puck in the net and if you give him lesser players, his points tank. Pretty simple stuff. He is dependent on a scorer as fancy a player he is, he isn't a complete package and so.. 8.5m is fair

 

[thewave]

What are you on about? Bruce Cassidy has openly talked about needing to find a way to contain Marner. This is just revisionist bs

They did, I didn't say he sucked or was easy to play but once they had it down Mitch did not lead us out of g6 or g7. Why not? He isn't that kinda special is why, McDavid probably would of got us out of Boston.

Add.. you know I don't think Matthews is worth his contract, just to be clear.

 

[Sypher04]

I posted QoT numbers for year 1,2 & 3. Among all forwards who played 500 minutes or more that year 5x5 in that year 2, Matthews QoT was around the 88th percentile while Marner was around the 57th. That is approx a 31 percentile difference. Ir really isn't close.

I'm really gonna have to spend some time looking into how they are actually calculating these numbers. Because I'd love to know how the conclusion is made that Hyman/Nylander is like 50% better linemates than Bozak/JVR/Kadri & Marleau. That seems like utter nonsense.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Fine. Let's do this a different way.

In games both Marner and Matthews actually played.

Matthews 73 points.
Marner 76 points.

Whether you take out the games Matthews missed from the comparison or you use his pace to estimate where he finishes, the point remains the same. He produced a similar clip to Marner when in the lineup and with far less help

This doesn't change how amazing Marner is or that he had 94 points to Matthews' 73. But it does provide context when people to try to use this 21 point gap in raw totals to say Marner is better than Matthews. To that point however, I'm very clearly on record saying I think you can make arguments for either one being better, though I personally give the edge to Matthews. I just think people should be forced to use comparisons that are not intentionally misleading like raw totals.

Yes, if you have two players who both are amazing and put up lots of points, and one plays more, odds are he's gonna get more points. That's just logic.

Nonsense. The "raw totals" are FACTS.

If you don't show up for work does your boss say to you" Well Sypher, I know you produced enough this year so it doesn't matter if you come in. BTW we're going to pay you the same. Your production per day is AMAZING".

Somehow I don't think so.

 

[thewave]

Nonsense. The "raw totals" are FACTS.

If you don't show up for work does your boss say to you" Well Sypher, I know you produced enough this year so it doesn't matter if you come in. BTW we're going to pay you the same. Your production per day is AMAZING".

Somehow I don't think so.

Exactly. Key to the Matthews is not deserving of his contract argument.

 

[Sypher04]

Nonsense. The "raw totals" are FACTS.

If you don't show up for work does your boss say to you" Well Sypher, I know you produced enough this year so it doesn't matter if you come in. BTW we're going to pay you the same. Your production per day is AMAZING".

Somehow I don't think so.

I'm not saying Matthews had a better season than Marner. I'm saying if you want to make the judgement of what player is better or more impactful or more valuable it should be based on the time they actually played, not hindered because they happened to get injured for a few weeks or a month. What they do in the lineup derives their value. This is why raw totals CAN BE misleading. As with almost everything in sports, context has importance too.

When both in the lineup Marner and Matthew produced very similarly, fact. Marner played more so his season is a greater success, also fact.

I don't understand why people appear to be at odds with this thinking.

I don't know if you guys think I'm trying to slag Marner or prop up Matthews here. I'm not doing either of those things. I'm merely saying being injured doesn't lessen how great a player someone is. It lessen's how great a season could have been, but generally speaking the player remains the same player.

It's also far too early to be labeling Matthews injury prone imo.

 

[thewave]

I'm not saying Matthews had a better season than Marner. I'm saying if you want to make the judgement of what player is better or more impactful or more valuable it should be based on the time they actually played, not hindered because they happened to get injured for a few weeks or a month. What they do in the lineup derives their value. This is why raw totals CAN BE misleading. As with almost everything in sports, context has importance too.

When both in the lineup Marner and Matthew produced very similarly, fact. Marner played more so his season is a greater success, also fact.

I don't understand why people appear to be at odds with this thinking.

I don't know if you guys think I'm trying to slag Marner or prop up Matthews here. I'm not doing either of those things. I'm merely saying being injured doesn't lessen how great a player someone is. It lessen's how great a season could have been, but generally speaking the player remains the same player.

It's also far to early to be labeling Matthews injury prone imo.

Hasn't Matthews been injured I some capacity 5 yrs in a row? He played a full season here in his rookie year but some of it with a known injury.

 

[Sypher04]

Exactly. Key to the Matthews is not deserving of his contract argument.

Matthews got overpaid. I think we all virtually agree on this point. His injuries however have nothing to do with it.

He's missed like 34 games total in 3 years of NHL hockey. We've seen far worse. Fact of the matter is, he's 21 years old, 3 years in the league, and if his agent allowed a team to negotiate his contract down on the absurd notion of prediction of future injuries he'd be out of a job very very quickly.

 

[Notsince67]

He puts the puck in the net. He does it with or without Mitch, just like JT. Marner does not put the puck in the net and if you give him lesser players, his points tank. Pretty simple stuff. He is dependent on a scorer as fancy a player he is, he isn't a complete package and so.. 8.5m is fair

How many times must someone raise the fact that as a center, Toews had more goals than winger kane in their ELC? They got paid the same
How many times must someone point out that Stamkos as a center had more goals before his last contract than Kucherov did his, yet Kucherov got paid a higher cap percentage?
This stuff is pure propaganda.

 

[MyBudJT]

Nah not yet, he is a fakey franchise player. JT elevates players like mad. Put Nylander with him and watch 88 look like a Kane, especially if his aim is on this season

Except where you're wrong is that Marner has a history of producing at the same pace over a large sample size. Nylander hasn't ever played close to a 95 point pace over any large sample size (lets say 20+ games) of his career.

 

[Sypher04]

Hasn't Matthews been injured I some capacity 5 yrs in a row? He played a full season here in his rookie year but some of it with a known injury.

Honestly, no idea. He was playing through something in year 1, but most guys are to some extent, so unless it keeps him out of the lineup I don't think it should be counted on his "record" so to speak.
Also, I believe he did have a pretty significant leg injury pre-draft

The thing is to me, injury prone feels imo a tag you reserve for guys who either don't take care of themselves to the point where they can be blamed for their injuries, or just keep re-injuring the same thing over and over. If you've had a bunch of different injuries, again to me, that's not really the same thing. That's bad luck.

 

[thewave]

How many times must someone raise the fact that as a center, Toews had more goals than winger kane in their ELC? They got paid the same
How many times must someone point out that Stamkos as a center had more goals before his last contract than Kucherov did his, yet Kucherov got paid a higher cap percentage?
This stuff is pure propaganda.

They got paid a special token amount as dynasty champs. It was sunset money. They knew the golden handshakes would change the team. This is why loyalty to players is stupid. Franchise players are stupid. 8 year deals are stupid.

CBA better follow the NBA lead, RFA kids are already there. Bye bye 8 year deals and being held for ransom like this.

 

[Sypher04]

How many times must someone raise the fact that as a center, Toews had more goals than winger kane in their ELC? They got paid the same
How many times must someone point out that Stamkos as a center had more goals before his last contract than Kucherov did his, yet Kucherov got paid a higher cap percentage?
This stuff is pure propaganda.

I don't think it's propoganda at all.
In the case of Kane vs Toews and Kucherov vs Stamkos I see it as the winger in each of those is the significantly better player. Albeit, it's far more pronounced in the the first pair than the 2nd

I think Marner is probably as good as Matthews overall. But if he's just as good, then the center/goalscorer thing imo should suppress his salary from being equal imo. Not to the crazy amounts though that some suggest, but a bit.

 

[horner]

you say that but it is a bit uncharitable IMO.
Screwed out of bonuses.
After Matthews gets signed an RFA deal, Dubas comes out and says centers get paid more even though there is evidence that shows elite wingers have been paid elite money. It was not an off the cuff remark. He was purposely showing his intent to value Marner lower despite anything he has accomplished. He didn't say goal scorers...he said centers.
Such a dumb thing to say publicly. The money after taxes really doesn't amount to much if Dubas' offer is reasonable. If Dubas is offering 9mm x 7, it would be one of the cheapest winger contracts tendered for a winger close to the 163 points in the last 2 years of their ELC. Funny thing is that it might have worked had Matthews signed for 7 years. He is not greedy for not selling 2 UFA Years at that price.
Just to put it into perspective....
Kane signed for the equivalent of 9.04MM for 5 years. He resigned for 15.22% of the cap when he was done or the equivalent of 12.40MM. 7 yield would have yielded him 10.0MM on average. At that point, he had left Toews in the dust performance wise but he maintained the same cap hit for his team mate. One might argue that he was worth more. Why is Marner greedy when he gets paid less that a comparable guy who took a pay cut for his team mate to make the same money as him? It makes no sense.

At this point we have no idea what the offer is but it seems to me that even at 10 for 7 given that Matthews is 11.6 for 5 , it seems like a bit of a low balling from Dubas relatively speaking. I'm not saying that Marner should be paid the world but the distain here is focused on the wrong guy. Dubas is the one who created this mess.

I agree

 

[ajp4to]

Exactly. It's too expensive to live in Toronto for $9m/year. That extra $2 million will keep him out of living under a bridge.

And no other team is willing to give him that extra two million dollar. No team is interested or willing to pay him more than the Leafs have already offered him. Like Nylander, the leafs have already priced him out of any offer sheet territory.

 

[Bluelines]

He puts the puck in the net. He does it with or without Mitch, just like JT. Marner does not put the puck in the net and if you give him lesser players, his points tank. Pretty simple stuff. He is dependent on a scorer as fancy a player he is, he isn't a complete package and so.. 8.5m is fair

You are wrong on just about every possible level, this past season Mitch scored 26 goals, that seems like he is putting the puck in the net. For RW's that is tied for 10th place, one goal behind 7th most. For his position is is among the best goal scorers in the league.

Marner's Sh% in his first year, 10.8%, second year 11.3%, third year 11.2%. Seems pretty consistent no matter who he plays with. BTW any player above 10% Sh% with 200+ SOG, is considered a sniper.

What you fail to recognize and have made an uninformed assumption that Mitch's stats went up just because he was playing with Tavares, well.... Mitch played 281 more minutes this year than the previous season and 331 more minutes this past season than his first season. Any player of Marner's ilk who has that sort of bump in 1st/2nd line minutes should see a corresponding bump in his stats.

I would say you have it backwards, Mitch is not dependent on a scorer (as previously illustrated, Mitch is among the best goal scoring RW in the game), scorers are dependent on Mitch. It was widely reported Tavares came to Toronto wanting to play with Mitch and Matthews repeatedly said last season that he would like to have Mitch as his linemate.

Mitch is every bit as good as Kane and Mitch deserves to be paid like an elite RW.

Patrick Kane (age 21) 3rd season - 30G (even strength 21G) 58A 88P
Mitch Marner (age 21) 3rd season - 26G (even strength 22G) 68A 94P

You are entitled to your opinion, no matter how misguided it is, but you are not entitled to your own facts.

Mitch is upper level at everything he does and that is coming from a guy that is not a Marner fan.

 

[Sypher04]

I'm not really blaming anyone. Everyone is just trying to do what they think is best.

Marner for himself, which is fine, it's HIS contract not anyone else's.
Dubas for the team, which is also fine, because frankly he needs to.

I think people get too twisted up about all this. It's gonna get done.

 

[Notsince67]

I'm really gonna have to spend some time looking into how they are actually calculating these numbers. Because I'd love to know how the conclusion is made that Hyman/Nylander is like 50% better linemates than Bozak/JVR/Kadri & Marleau. That seems like utter nonsense.

Percentile is a rank order of the population being analyzed. When I said 31 percentile differences it means that 31% of the population of better team mates were between Matthews and Marner in the league. It is a comparative versus an absolute measurement score.

 

[KuleminFan41]

Nonsense. The "raw totals" are FACTS.

If you don't show up for work does your boss say to you" Well Sypher, I know you produced enough this year so it doesn't matter if you come in. BTW we're going to pay you the same. Your production per day is AMAZING".

Somehow I don't think so.

That's not a very sound logic though. Using your scenario here, Auston Matthews was prevented from going to work, he didn't refuse to show up or else his production would have continued. Him stopping was out of his hands because of sick leave. Plenty of jobs don't judge their employees entirely off day to day production, because you can have a couple bad days of production, but if you are in the top for production, you aren't going to get fired. However, someone who shows up every day and has the lowest but consistent production, isn't going to get a raise because they're consistent. At the end of the day, most jobs, and most companies look at performance by quarters per year, not by daily numbers.

 

[Bluelines]

Nonsense. The "raw totals" are FACTS.

If you don't show up for work does your boss say to you" Well Sypher, I know you produced enough this year so it doesn't matter if you come in. BTW we're going to pay you the same. Your production per day is AMAZING".

Somehow I don't think so.

That is exactly how it works at any good company, you don't get penalized for illness. In this case there is market pressure bidding for his services, so yeah, naturally Matthews would get paid based on what the Market dictates. If you have a skill in demand you will get paid no matter how many days you missed work for a bad back, busted up shoulder, what ever

 

[Thissiteisgarbage]

Greedy? They are negotiating a contract and he is trying to get the best deal possible. That is not greedy IMO.

You say to-may-to, I say to-mah-to.
When your Prime motivation is ego driven (e.g. being paid equal to Matthews), it becomes greed, IMO.

 

[Sypher04]

Percentile is a rank order of the population being analyzed. When I said 31 percentile differences it means that 31% of the population of better team mates were between Matthews and Marner in the league. It is a comparative versus an absolute measurement score.

I get that, but by what metric is this QoT being calculated I guess is what I want to dig into. Because I can see an argument that Nylander could maybe be the best of the linemates either had, I'm willing to at least entertain that idea (it wouldn't be by a lot over JVR), but where it loses me is basically the insinuation that Hyman is better than say Kadri/Bozak/Marleau.

It just seems odd to have that conclusion when on the surface, again I have to look more into Marner's usage and this statistic calculation, but it seems entirely arguable that Marner had comparable or better linemates than Matthews did most of that season.