Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[ORRFForever]

you say that but it is a bit uncharitable IMO.
Screwed out of bonuses.
After Matthews gets signed an RFA deal, Dubas comes out and says centers get paid more even though there is evidence that shows elite wingers have been paid elite money. It was not an off the cuff remark. He was purposely showing his intent to value Marner lower despite anything he has accomplished. He didn't say goal scorers...he said centers.
Such a dumb thing to say publicly. The money after taxes really doesn't amount to much if Dubas' offer is reasonable. If Dubas is offering 9mm x 7, it would be one of the cheapest winger contracts tendered for a winger close to the 163 points in the last 2 years of their ELC. Funny thing is that it might have worked had Matthews signed for 7 years. He is not greedy for not selling 2 UFA Years at that price.
Just to put it into perspective....
Kane signed for the equivalent of 9.04MM for 5 years. He resigned for 15.22% of the cap when he was done or the equivalent of 12.40MM. 7 yield would have yielded him 10.0MM on average. At that point, he had left Toews in the dust performance wise but he maintained the same cap hit for his team mate. One might argue that he was worth more. Why is Marner greedy when he gets paid less that a comparable guy who took a pay cut for his team mate to make the same money as him? It makes no sense.

At this point we have no idea what the offer is but it seems to me that even at 10 for 7 given that Matthews is 11.6 for 5 , it seems like a bit of a low balling from Dubas relatively speaking. I'm not saying that Marner should be paid the world but the distain here is focused on the wrong guy. Dubas is the one who created this mess.

You make some good points.

 

[Martin Skoula]

LOL.

A couple of times I have caught myself thinking, "I hope Matthews gets hurt so the Leafs and Matthews fans realize how important Marner is." Then I think, "What the hell?!?!"

It happens in the other direction too. Ferris acting like an idiot is satisfying to watch but actively makes the team worse.

 

[Notsince67]

Havlat wasn’t an elc when the cap came in

The rest were considered the best goal scorers in the league at the time

Havlat signed 1 year on the first cap year (his first RFA deal) and he was still an rfa when he re-signed for 3 more years

 

[Nineteen67]

I can't imagine he wants out - he's home, playing for his dream team, with endorsements coming out of his ears. I just think he feels disrespected and under appreciated it. Maybe he's right or maybe's he insecure.

Well if does actually want out, one reason could be because he feels disrespected.

 

[Pookie]

Ahhh... so the very second I bring up someone with pretty much the same ppg (and much higher gpg), there's now "all of a sudden" more to the story than just ppg.

Imagine that...

Ummm. No. The player with the higher PPG and a more disadvantageous tax situation will probably net out a few bucks more.

 

[Pookie]

What is it you think of the Mattews contract? I don't remember.

Didn’t really weigh in on the value. More the term that suggests he’s looking to control his destination (Arizona?).

Seems very generous for a 5 year deal.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Ummm. No. The player with the higher PPG and a more disadvantageous tax situation will probably net out a few bucks more.

Ahhh...

So when you compare Marner's higher ppg to other players lower ppg, the ppg difference itself is the 100% deciding factor.

Yet when I show a player with pretty much the same ppg (with a MUCH higher gpg), all of a sudden the ppg difference isn't the deciding factor. More comes into play at that point. But that only happens when the LEAF player doesn't have the ppg/gpg advantage. Hmm.

It really is fascinating to watch someone try and rationalize these things.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Didn’t really weigh in on the value. More the term that suggests he’s looking to control his destination (Arizona?).

Seems very generous for a 5 year deal.

Here's the problem for me...

Clearly Matthews wasn't paid for his ppg statistics. No player UNDER a ppg over elc has ever signed such a ridiculous cap percentage for their post elc contract, especially at a 5 year term.

This was rationalized by his goal scoring.

So the precedent has been set. Dubas pays for elite g/60, and doesn't care much for total points or ppg.

I just now want that precedent to be upheld. THAT'S how Dubas is paying players. The proof is in the pudding. The POINTS don't really matter. Dubas pays for goals.

The entire metric used to evaluate a leaf players worth can't keep changing based on each individual leaf players strength.

If Matthews signed a very team friendly deal, and the rationalization was (comparatively) low ppg and total points, then I'd have no problem whatsoever with paying Marner through the roof based on his point totals (with his low goal totals not playing into the evaluation).

But to pay Matthews based on goals compared to other players (with points barely mattering), and then to pay Marner based on points compared to other players (with goals barely mattering)... yeah, that I call bullshit on.

 

[biotk]

Wasn't that the same year you guys keep saying Marner went PPG++ with Kadri? Wasn't that the same year where JVR scored 10 or so goals in the last month of the season - you know, the same time that Marner was going PPG++ with Kadri or whatever.

Seems like JVR was on pace for yet another 30 goal season until Marner was moved off his line.

Edit: 13 goals in JVR's last 13 games, so a 27 goal pace without that Marner-less hot streak.

Yeah JVR had 0.63 G/60 5v5 playing with Marner that year in 379 minutes and 1.71 G/60 5v5 playing without Marner in 595.5 minutes

Playing with Marner that year was probably the worst results of JVR's career (even in his rookie year he scored 0.70 G/6o at 5v5) and playing without Marner that year was easily the best results of JVR's career.

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

If we lose Marner will Real Sports offer to recrest all your #16 jerseys into #88 Nylander jerseys?

 

[biotk]

Here's the problem for me...

Clearly Matthews wasn't paid for his ppg statistics. No player UNDER a ppg over elc has ever signed such a ridiculous cap percentage for their post elc contract, especially at a 5 year term.

This was rationalized by his goal scoring.

So the precedent has been set. Dubas pays for elite g/60, and doesn't care much for total points or ppg.

Or...you know...it could just be the team that has the best sports science team and the best analytics team and the best of everything.....simply knows things about Matthews and Marner that you don't and feel that Matthews is worth what they are paying him, and that Marner is only worth what they are offering him.

Is that a possibility? Is it possible that they know more than you and I and the other people posting on here. So like maybe there is no precedent to be upheld. Maybe your belief that Dubas pays for goals, but points don't really matter is a conspiracy some people have dreamed up because they value the two players in question far differently than the team does. Is it possible that the people whose job it is to determine the best contracts and contract structure for the team did a really good and thorough job instead of just going over to hockey-reference.com and looking up how many points each got?

 

[Pookie]

Ahhh...

So when you compare Marner's higher ppg to other players lower ppg, the ppg difference itself is the 100% deciding factor.

Yet when I show a player with pretty much the same ppg (with a MUCH higher gpg), all of a sudden the ppg difference isn't the deciding factor. More comes into play at that point. But that only happens when the LEAF player doesn't have the ppg/gpg advantage. Hmm.

It really is fascinating to watch someone try and rationalize these things.

Which player did you show having a much higher PPG?

 

[hullsy47]

Didn’t really weigh in on the value. More the term that suggests he’s looking to control his destination (Arizona?).

Seems very generous for a 5 year deal.

well rumor has it connor McDavid grew up a leafs fan lol .
just in time lol

 

[Pookie]

Here's the problem for me...

Clearly Matthews wasn't paid for his ppg statistics. No player UNDER a ppg over elc has ever signed such a ridiculous cap percentage for their post elc contract, especially at a 5 year term.

This was rationalized by his goal scoring.

So the precedent has been set. Dubas pays for elite g/60, and doesn't care much for total points or ppg.

I just now want that precedent to be upheld. THAT'S how Dubas is paying players. The proof is in the pudding. The POINTS don't really matter. Dubas pays for goals.

The entire metric used to evaluate a leaf players worth can't keep changing based on each individual leaf players strength.

If Matthews signed a very team friendly deal, and the rationalization was (comparatively) low ppg and total points, then I'd have no problem whatsoever with paying Marner through the roof based on his point totals (with his low goal totals not playing into the evaluation).

But to pay Matthews based on goals compared to other players (with points barely mattering), and then to pay Marner based on points compared to other players (with goals barely mattering)... yeah, that I call bull**** on.

You think Matthews... as the #1 overall pick and the face of the franchise Marketing was paid on GPG?

So many intangibles with this contract. He was getting top dollar the moment he was drafted.

 

[Pookie]

well rumor has it connor McDavid grew up a leafs fan lol .
just in time lol

Everything works out.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Or...you know...it could just be the team that has the best sports science team and the best analytics team and the best of everything.....simply knows things about Matthews and Marner that you don't and feel that Matthews is worth what they are paying him, and that Marner is only worth what they are offering him.

Is that a possibility? Is it possible that they know more than you and I and the other people posting on here. So like maybe there is no precedent to be upheld. Maybe your belief that Dubas pays for goals, but points don't really matter is a conspiracy some people have dreamed up because they value the two players in question far differently than the team does. Is it possible that the people whose job it is to determine the best contracts and contract structure for the team did a really good and thorough job instead of just going over to hockey-reference.com and looking up how many points each got?

I'm not comparing Dubas to me or you or anyone else on the internet.

I'm comparing him to other gm's. Gm's that pay comparable players with comparable numbers far less than rookie Dubas does.

With Matthews and his comparables, goals mattered FAR more than points.

And now with Marner and his comparables, points matter far more than goals?

This is insane.

Dubas is not good at his job.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Which player did you show having a much higher PPG?

I never said such a thing.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You think Matthews... as the #1 overall pick and the face of the franchise Marketing was paid on GPG?

So many intangibles with this contract. He was getting top dollar the moment he was drafted.

But when you talk of Marner and his comparables, you keep claiming it's ALL about ppg.

Once again, the second I show leaf contracts that have HUGE contracts far above their ppg would suggest, there's always "more to the story". Isn't it possible there's also "more to the story" with the Marner comparables he has a higher ppg than? Or does this tactic (lol) only get applied to LEAF players?

 

[biotk]

Yea 500K here, 1M there, two million somewhere else, and no way to sign decent support players. Not sure why people don't understand; overpaying players means less to sign other players. The cap is the same for every team. Cap space is more important then overpaid players (the reason teams don't give out Offer sheets and assets). Does anyone remember what Marleau cost?

I do understand. I just wish the Leafs understood before they gave Matthews $11.65M/yr.

Again this is the same "if only the professionals knew as much as random people on the internet know" nonsense. The Leafs knew that the cap might only go up as little as it did. They planned for it, like they planned for every contingency. The reality is - and whether you like it not doesn't matter - the Leafs felt that Matthews was worth his contract, and they feel that Marner is worth no more than then they are offering him. Again, you can disagree with that but it doesn't change anything.

If the Leafs felt that Marner was worth more and were caught by surprise by the cap going up as little as it did they wouldn't have signed one of (or some combination of) Johnsson, Kapanen, Kerfoot or Ceci. They would have traded one of them away for prospects or picks to free up money. But the Leafs have not attempted to open up a single extra dollar of cap space (you can go look at the 3 trades and then the signings - there were no cap savings - but instead a slight increase) because they have assessed what they feel Marner is worth and they are sticking to it.

The lack of understanding is not on the Leafs end. It is on your end.​

 

[biotk]

I'm comparing him to other gm's. Gm's that pay comparable players with comparable numbers far less than rookie Dubas does.

So you think that Dubas should do things the same old ways that other GMs do? Why would Shanahan have hired him if that was the case? I want him to do things better. I want him to not overpay players who had inflated production because the player played with Tavares - you know - not make the same mistake several other GMs have done.

 

[Notsince67]

Or...you know...it could just be the team that has the best sports science team and the best analytics team and the best of everything.....simply knows things about Matthews and Marner that you don't and feel that Matthews is worth what they are paying him, and that Marner is only worth what they are offering him.

Is that a possibility? Is it possible that they know more than you and I and the other people posting on here. So like maybe there is no precedent to be upheld. Maybe your belief that Dubas pays for goals, but points don't really matter is a conspiracy some people have dreamed up because they value the two players in question far differently than the team does. Is it possible that the people whose job it is to determine the best contracts and contract structure for the team did a really good and thorough job instead of just going over to hockey-reference.com and looking up how many points each got?

no its not

 

[biotk]

no its not

Thanks for the input Paul.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

So you think that Dubas should do things the same old ways that other GMs do? Why would Shanahan have hired him if that was the case? I want him to do things better. I want him to not overpay players who had inflated production because the player played with Tavares - you know - not make the same mistake several other GMs have done.

Paying players MORE money for lower stats isn't exactly a good place to start...

Sure, under the reasoning of "Every teams front office has professionals much more knowledgeable than me or you", then quite literally every signing/trade/draft pick (etc) is beyond criticism. And every gm is equally as good as every other gm.

So I guess Dubas has been a genius for his signings... but so has every other gm EVER with EVERY decision they've all ever made.

And no matter what Marner signs for, it will be GENIUS. No matter what.

 

[diceman934]

Wasn't that the same year you guys keep saying Marner went PPG++ with Kadri? Wasn't that the same year where JVR scored 10 or so goals in the last month of the season - you know, the same time that Marner was going PPG++ with Kadri or whatever.

Seems like JVR was on pace for yet another 30 goal season until Marner was moved off his line.

Edit: 13 goals in JVR's last 13 games, so a 27 goal pace without that Marner-less hot streak.

most where on the pp remember.

 

[Notsince67]

Thanks for the input Paul.

You put a lot of faith in sport science doctors to know who the best player is and the advanced analytics confidence intervals. You are painting a picture of fantasy land