Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[Nineteen67]

Do you understand that elite goal scorers get elite money because they score goals at elite rates?



So Marner's worth 5M because he sucked in the playoffs and really helped us lose?

We were talking about Matthews. I say he needs to do more if he wants to be a winner.

You’re justifying bad behaviour by pointing to other bad behaviour.

 

[biotk]

TBH, I'm still not sure what we're arguing.

Okay... We agree Matthews is overpaid. Glad to hear it.

I feel a million less for Marner, because he is a winger and not a goal scorer, is fair - especially in tax heavy Ontario.

I hope they find a middle ground in the $10.5M range.

Regardless of what Matthews signed for, the question is whether the Leafs feel that Marner is worth 10.5x5 - and the answer appears to be no. The team has signed Matthews and then a whole bunch of other players eating into the potential cap that Marner could take. That tells me a lot. The Leafs might be willing to match that if another team in the NHL feels that he is worth that, but so far it does not seem to be the case that any team feels Marner is worth 10.5x5.

I think NHL teams view Matthews as a player who you can build a franchise around, and they view Marner as someone who can put up great numbers while playing with a franchise C. The former is extremely valuable - and so far Aho (a center) has been offersheeted, with the rumour that Point (A center) turned down an offersheet - with nothing so far for the two wingers who played with Franchise centers: Rantanen or Marner - despite the fact that Dubas is the only GM who has said that he might not match one.

 

[TheProspector]

Oh, look. That massive offer sheet that was supposed to be coming today was horseshit. What a surprise. We're a day or two away from E4: MARNER IN TALKS WITH AVANGARD OMSK max.

 

[Nineteen67]

Oh, look. That massive offer sheet that was supposed to be coming today was horse****. What a surprise. We're a day or two away from E4: MARNER IN TALKS WITH AVANGARD OMSK max.

Do you have proof that a team didn’t offer?

 

[Kiwi]

We were talking about Matthews. I say he needs to do more if he wants to be a winner.

You’re justifying bad behaviour by pointing to other bad behaviour.

How much more do you want him to do exactly after he lead us in goalscoring? By a fair margin as well

Marner fell into a hole, I'm still struggling to see where Matthews bad behavior is coming from exactly?

 

[Marshy]

Tavares/Marner
Matthews/Nylander


------> are gonna torch the league this year boys. Nobody is hurt. Nobody is going to be held back to keep contracts low. Nobody's going to hold out.

22/23 year old stars. I love looking on hockeydb and seeing how past stars and superstars did at that age. Go look. Go! Put a smile on your face.

We have a puck moving balanced top 4 D. There will be pain.......for the other teams!

 

[Kurtz]

Do you have proof that a team didn’t offer?

By asking this question, you're committing a logical fallacy, because it is impossible to prove that something does not exist.

The onus isn't on Prospector to prove that there was no offer made - the onus is on you, if you doubt him, to show us some evidence that an offer sheet was proffered.

 

[Nineteen67]

How much more do you want him to do exactly after he lead us in goalscoring? By a fair margin as well

...I may have posted it in the GDT or post game threads but there were a few instances that he didn’t compete like a champion competes. They were down a goal too which made it more disappointing to watch. If I was his coach or mentor I definitely would have talked to him about it.

 

[Kiwi]

...I may have posted it in the GDT or post game threads but there were a few instances that he didn’t compete like a champion competes. They were down a goal too which made it more disappointing to watch. If I was his coach or mentor I definitely would have talked to him about it.

Hard to do that when in game 7 your chasing the game and your coach inexplicably doesn't play you

He was our best offensive producer in that series, I'll take that any day of the week

 

[ORRFForever]

Regardless of what Matthews signed for, the question is whether the Leafs feel that Marner is worth 10.5x5 - and the answer appears to be no. The team has signed Matthews and then a whole bunch of other players eating into the potential cap that Marner could take. That tells me a lot. The Leafs might be willing to match that if another team in the NHL feels that he is worth that, but so far it does not seem to be the case that any team feels Marner is worth 10.5x5.

I think NHL teams view Matthews as a player who you can build a franchise around, and they view Marner as someone who can put up great numbers while playing with a franchise C. The former is extremely valuable - and so far Aho (a center) has been offersheeted, with the rumour that Point (A center) turned down an offersheet - with nothing so far for the two wingers who played with Franchise centers: Rantanen or Marner - despite the fact that Dubas is the only GM who has said that he might not match one.

Whether they feel Marner is worth $10.5 is irrelevant if the Leafs want to retain him. If Marner can force their hand (and I believe he can) to get $10.5M (or more), he will.

If the Leafs don't care about retaining him, they can always walk away.

 

[Nineteen67]

By asking this question, you're committing a logical fallacy, because it is impossible to prove that something does not exist.

The onus isn't on Prospector to prove that there was no offer made - the onus is on you, if you doubt him, to show us some evidence that an offer sheet was proffered.

We had a reporter very close to the situation tell us a team had clearance from ownership to make an offer. The same reporter cited two teams later in the day.
Can we not assume that the offer was made and turned down?

The same reporter also said that Montreal, one of the cited teams, offered Brayden Point who also turned down the offer.

Or we could believe that the reporter is making up stuff for clicks.

 

[ORRFForever]

Tavares/Marner
Matthews/Nylander


------> are gonna torch the league this year boys. Nobody is hurt. Nobody is going to be held back to keep contracts low. Nobody's going to hold out.

22/23 year old stars. I love looking on hockeydb and seeing how past stars and superstars did at that age. Go look. Go! Put a smile on your face.

We have a puck moving balanced top 4 D. There will be pain.......for the other teams!

Trying to remember : You believe (like I do), Marner will stay, right?

 

[Nineteen67]

Hard to do that when in game 7 your chasing the game and your coach inexplicably doesn't play you

He was our best offensive producer in that series, I'll take that any day of the week

He couldn’t do more? He’s peaked in your estimation?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Whether they feel Marner is worth $10.5 or not is irrelevant if the Leafs want to retain him. If Marner can force their hand (and I believe he can) to get $10.5M (or more), he will.

If the Leafs don't care about retaining him, they can always walk away.

He can't force their hand. If he has to sit out the year, they will make him sit. I have no doubt. It's not ideal, but they can't cave.

 

[Marshy]

Trying to remember : You believe (like I do), Marner will stay, right?

Ya he'll stay. I think once a couple of RFAs sign the rest will follow shortly after.

 

[ORRFForever]

He can't force their hand. If he has to sit out the year, they will make him sit. I have no doubt. It's not ideal, but they can't cave.

Why? Is your "can't" strictly a Cap argument?

 

[Kiwi]

He couldn’t do more? He’s peaked in your estimation?

Peaked and doing more are two different things

I think he's going to become a better 2way player as he ages but in that series he stood up offensively

I didn't like him defensively but offensively there's no doubt his value to the team in that series

 

[Suntouchable13]

Why? Is your "can't" strictly a Cap argument?

Not really, the Leafs have all the leverage. Why won't they make him sit?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I have never changed my view on Matthews' contract from the day it was signed. You can go back through my posts to see.

These are my posts from that day:

"It is a bad deal."

"It's a bad deal. I don't think that Dubas had a choice. Offer sheets were going to come, despite what people on here think. None of Nylander, Matthews or Marner had/have any interest in signing a team friendly deal. You can ask why that is, but regardless it is reality. On the other hand, McDavid left money on the table to create a winning team, and we have all seen how that has worked out.
The next question is can Marner be signed for anything reasonable? My position is no - I think he will be more difficult to deal with."

"Interesting to note that the Pens won zero Cups when both Malkin and Crosby were under those big cap hits, but won the Cup the year before Malkin's contract, and won 2 Cups in the couple years after Malkin and Crosby signed third contracts for lower cap hits."

"Would you have thought that was a good deal last summer? Because I don't remember anyone thinking 11.6+ over 5 years was a good deal. I don't even remember anyone thinking that 11.6+ over 8 was a good deal. I think that it was the only deal that could be made. If not, he would have waited for an OS, and undoubtedly would have received an OS of at least that much. So it was a deal of necessity, but it is still bad."

"I would have been fine with the Leafs holding firm and accepting that they would probably lose him on an OS. However, I am sure that the Leafs crunched the numbers and decided it was better for their bottom line financially to have Matthews in the lineup than having him take an OS."



Doesn't matter what I feel. The Leafs felt that Matthews was worth signing for 11.6x5. Felt strongly enough that they agreed to it without a fight. They don't think Marner is worth what you think he is worth. You can say they are wrong, but that doesn't make it any less reality.

Unlike the Marner fan club, who feels that the team needs to dramatically over pay Marner, I have never supported the team overpaying Nylander, Matthews or Marner.

Why don't other teams pay 70 point players as though they were 110 point players due to the "threat of an offer sheet"?

 

[ORRFForever]

Not really, the Leafs have all the leverage. Why won't they make him sit?

I think they want him in the line-up and will find a way to make him happy at $10.5M - plus or minus $500K.

 

[Cor]

If he takes a big offer sheet, I think the extra pay will far outweigh what he could make in sponsorship.

I just think he's undervaluing playing on a team he dreamt about as a kid and in a market that loves him and hockey. Hope he realizes this and stays.

I don’t disagree. If he gets 12.5M from some team he should take it no questions asked.


The original question was would he lose sponsorship deals if he left. That’s an undoubtedly yes. Whether he can make up for it or cares doesn’t really matter to the question asked

 

[Kurtz]

We had a reporter very close to the situation tell us a team had clearance from ownership to make an offer. The same reporter cited two teams later in the day.
Can we not assume that the offer was made and turned down?

The same reporter also said that Montreal, one of the cited teams, offered Brayden Point who also turned down the offer.

Or we could believe that the reporter is making up stuff for clicks.

Reporters make stuff up for clicks all the time. All of them have had to resort to it ever since social media became a thing. Blair was talking about it on PrimeTime yesterday - he said that when he was starting out he would never post a rumour unless he had at least 2 legitimate sources, but since social media came around, he tweets any juicy rumour he hears and then just deletes the tweet if it proves to be false. Also, have you followed the Kawhi free agent saga at all? That's a perfect example or a myriad reporters making stuff up for clicks.

I'm inclined to believe the Montreal/Point offer if he named the specific player and the specific team, because if it was false, it could easily be proven false. We also have proof that MTL is offer-sheet hunting a first-line C. So I can definitely believe the Point offer.

Did this reporter (who is it, btw?) name the two teams that made the offer?


Also, let's clarify something. When we talk about the threat of an offer sheet, what is meant is the threat that the player signs said offer sheet. No one is afraid of an offer sheet from some mediocre club located in an undesirable city (ie Buffalo).

 

[Notsince67]

Would you mind presenting your correlation argument again? I didn't see it but am very curious. Or just point me to the post, if possible.

When looking at goals, there is a predictable element year over year as are assists. There is an element of talent that determines goal scoring and one would expect that year 1 vs year 2 has a correlation. Secondary assists have a poorer fit but primary assists have a pretty close fit relatively speaking as well and is really only a .04 r^2 difference from goals. Overvaluing goals to primary assist has no statistical leg to stand on because primary assists are not more arbitrary in a measureable way

 

[ORRFForever]

I knew someone who had a good job but wanted more money. He saw a sales job and applied for it. Lots more money. Lots of time on the road. He quickly regretted it - he hated always being away from home in some far away hotel room.

I wonder if Marner will go thru the same thing - living in some far off city and wishing he was back in Toronto, all for a few dollars more.

 

[Kurtz]

When looking at goals, there is a predictable element year over year as are assists. There is an element of talent that determines goal scoring and one would expect that year 1 vs year 2 has a correlation. Secondary assists have a poorer fit but primary assists have a pretty close fit relatively speaking as well and is really only a .04 r^2 difference from goals. Overvaluing goals to primary assist has no statistical leg to stand on because primary assists are not more arbitrary in a measureable way

Gotcha. I do like the fact that you're using primary assists rather than overall assists, that's an intelligent approach.

Couple of questions:

- Could I ask you what your sample size was?
- Marner only had one season where he had an outstanding primary assist tally. In fact, he nearly doubled his primary assist tally from the season prior. Could we not acknowledge the possibility of an outlier?
- My 2 stats courses are a decade behind me and I forget the term (multicollinearity?), but is it possible that other variables are influencing your equation, such as linemate quality?
- Finally, William Nylander had more primary assists than Mitch a season ago. If we were having this discussion a year ago, and focusing on primary assists as we are now, would you have suggested that Nylander is as good as Marner and deserves the same money?