Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

But you don't *have* to pay Matthews for his prime years. Not like this. There are leverage points for both sides in an RFA negotiation. TOR used *none* of them in the Matthews negotiation. They basically gave him the AAV he wanted over the term he wanted.

I'm sure RFAs want shorter deals now. But Aho just got *offer sheeted* at $8.5 million over five years. That's a hostile offer designed to steal a player and it was 30 percent less than Matthews.

No other RFA -- not Point, not Rantanen, not Tkachuk -- is looking for eight figures in a short-term deal, except Marner. And that's because Dubas gave the same deal to Matthews when he didn't have to.

can you link Point/Rantanen/Tkachuk/Laine's contract demands? I can't find them, but I heard Laine was after 10 million. Also, none of those players are as good/valuable as Matthews

 

[Kiwi]

If my math and my understanding of LTIR is correct, due to the injury to Hyman and Dermott in the beginning of the season, the Leafs can match any offer sheet for only the 2 1st and 1 2nd and 1 3rd range.
So if Marner is signing an OS, Leafs will get 4 1st. Am I right?

Looking at it we can match anything under 4 1st rounders without much difficulty

We can also match to around 11M-11.5M without trading anybody, but believe me that's going to be an absolute nightmare to navigate

As of now I'd match anything under the 4 1st threshold
If the offer is between 10.5M-11M I'd look at the team before I decided what to do but probably match
Over 11M I'm waiving him goodbye, in a hard cap league in struggle to justify that much money for a winger, even one as great as Mitch

I want term though, not 5 years I'd want 7+ for those types of AAV

 

[taurine330]

The way his dad sells Marner memorabilia that can happen in no time lol

Is he that poor or just greedy?

 

[Superstar]

You know, in university I was taught that a coefficient of correlation that small is considered weak to completely incidental. But maybe in practice there are fields where that level of correlation is significant, I can't be sure.

But let me simplify my argument, because I fear that I may get lost if we get too technical:

Mitch's primary assists by season: 24, 28, 52.

Matthews' goals by season: 40, 34, 37.


Looking at that admittedly limited sample size, would it not be fair to state that out of those 6 data points, 1 jumps out at you as a very possible outlier?

LOL...we all know who the Outlier is...his name is John Tavares!

 

[MattySnipes]

Regardless of what Matthews signed for, the question is whether the Leafs feel that Marner is worth 10.5x5 - and the answer appears to be no. The team has signed Matthews and then a whole bunch of other players eating into the potential cap that Marner could take. That tells me a lot. The Leafs might be willing to match that if another team in the NHL feels that he is worth that, but so far it does not seem to be the case that any team feels Marner is worth 10.5x5.

I think NHL teams view Matthews as a player who you can build a franchise around, and they view Marner as someone who can put up great numbers while playing with a franchise C. The former is extremely valuable - and so far Aho (a center) has been offersheeted, with the rumour that Point (A center) turned down an offersheet - with nothing so far for the two wingers who played with Franchise centers: Rantanen or Marner - despite the fact that Dubas is the only GM who has said that he might not match one.

Nice to read some common sense. Oh boy.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

You know, in university I was taught that a coefficient of correlation that small is considered weak to completely incidental. But maybe in practice there are fields where that level of correlation is significant, I can't be sure.

But let me simplify my argument, because I fear that I may get lost if we get too technical:

Mitch's primary assists by season: 24, 28, 52.

Matthews' goals by season: 40, 34, 37.


Looking at that admittedly limited sample size, would it not be fair to state that out of those 6 data points, 1 jumps out at you as a very possible outlier?

Yup and there's a very curious corresponding circumstance to go along with that outlier.

 

[horner]

I've never found Matthews the most driven athlete. Talented yes, overly driven no.

There were games last year when he would just float and look totally disinterested .

I agree totally.

Lose Marner and the pressure will be squarely on his shoulders.

From what I have seen so far , he wont.

 

[MarMarSab3]

Is he that poor or just greedy?

Immensely greedy. It's funny as he's actually devaluing his sons own name by selling so cheap.

 

[Gabriel426]

Yup and there's a very curious corresponding circumstance to go along with that outlier.

Well, I think it was Hyman. Helped Matthews with 40 goals and Mitch with 53 primary assists.

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

Dubas pretty much set us up with enough cap space to either A) match any offer sheet below the four 1sts mark; or B) take the picks if it's above the four 1sts mark.

If no sheets come in then Marner's camp can see the space that's there and decide if they want to take what's left or sit for the year. The ball is in their court now.

 

[Marshy]

This gets it done and it's fair for both parties.

3 years - 7.5M AAV

Year 1 - 6M (5.3 SB)

Year 2 - 6M (5.3 SB)

Year 3 - 10.5 (9.8M SB)


21.8M in 24 months.

QO is 10.5 in year 4 (walks him to UFA)

Essentially it's a 4 year / 33M (8.25 M AAV) deal with UFA at age 26.

Leafs get cap space for 3 years to resign Muzzin and Barrie next year.



Edit: Year 3 has to be all salary no SB.

11.3M in first 12 months of deal.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

This gets it done and it's fair for both parties.

3 years - 7.5M AAV

Year 1 - 6M (5.3 SB)

Year 2 - 6M (5.3 SB)

Year 3 - 10.5 (9.8M SB)


21.8M in 24 months.

QO is 10.5 in year 4 (walks him to UFA)

Essentially it's a 4 year / 33M (8.25 M AAV) deal with UFA at age 26.

Leafs get cap space for 3 years to resign Muzzin and Barrie next year.

That year 3 salary needs to be all base salary for it to be a $10.5m QO, no SB.

 

[Marshy]

That year 3 salary needs to be all base salary for it to be a $10.5m QO, no SB.

Didn't know that. Thanks.

 

[Slot]

Agree. If we get four firsts, buh bye Mitch you made your choice and the Leafs made theirs. If this were too happen I hope the Leafs try and sign Tkachuk. Make sure the OS is below four firsts. If we lose one or two firsts, that's ok we gain over all and Tkachuk would bring a TON to our team.

Need your own picks to offer sheet. Leafs have no first next year.

 

[WTFMAN99]

No offer sheet yet, surprise surprise.

 

[moon111]

According to CapFriendly, the Leafs can do either: $0 - $1,395,053, $2,113,717 - $4,227,437, or $10,568,590+

 

[Dayjobdave]

Immensely greedy. It's funny as he's actually devaluing his sons own name by selling so cheap.

They have to finish clearing the merchandise before he signs that Boston offer sheet.


Here s the thing about Mitch vs Matthews. If Matthews was not signed, I have 0 doubt hat more than one team would have been prepared to break the bank and make a 4 firsts offer for him. As great as Mitch is, that just isn’t the case. Really the only question now is whether he can accept that he gets less than Matthews here, or if he has to be traded to another team and accept that he gets less there.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Need your own picks to offer sheet. Leafs have no first next year.

Need to be four consecutive picks in the next five years.

 

[Nineteen67]

Reporters make stuff up for clicks all the time. All of them have had to resort to it ever since social media became a thing. Blair was talking about it on PrimeTime yesterday - he said that when he was starting out he would never post a rumour unless he had at least 2 legitimate sources, but since social media came around, he tweets any juicy rumour he hears and then just deletes the tweet if it proves to be false. Also, have you followed the Kawhi free agent saga at all? That's a perfect example or a myriad reporters making stuff up for clicks.

I'm inclined to believe the Montreal/Point offer if he named the specific player and the specific team, because if it was false, it could easily be proven false. We also have proof that MTL is offer-sheet hunting a first-line C. So I can definitely believe the Point offer.

Did this reporter (who is it, btw?) name the two teams that made the offer?


Also, let's clarify something. When we talk about the threat of an offer sheet, what is meant is the threat that the player signs said offer sheet. No one is afraid of an offer sheet from some mediocre club located in an undesirable city (ie Buffalo).

What rubbish.

 

[Mess]

Need to be four consecutive picks in the next five years.

True, but Leafs 1st is conditional and lottery protected this year, so what happens if they keep their own in 2020, and need to forfeit their 2021 instead?

That no longer complies with 4 consecutive picks under those CBA conditions. So potentially because of the lottery protected conditions on the Marleau trade, the Leafs could have disqualified themselves from making an offersheet themselves that includes 1st round picks as compensation.

Not that its a big deal since Leafs are highly unlikely to use this option anyways, even if they lose Marner to an OS themselves.

 

[Morbo]

Need to be four consecutive picks in the next five years.

I don't think that's true.

 

[Sypher04]

I don't think that's true.

My understanding is also that they have to be consecutive

 

[Nineteen67]

Need to be four consecutive picks in the next five years.

This is true.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

I don't think that's true.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

I don't think that's true.

It is for the four 1st compensation