Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[Nineteen67]

True, but Leafs 1st is conditional and lottery protected this year, so what happens if they keep their own in 2020, and need to forfeit their 2021 instead?

That no longer complies with 4 consecutive picks under those CBA conditions. So potentially because of the lottery protected conditions on the Marleau trade, the Leafs could have disqualified themselves from making an offersheet themselves that includes 1st round picks as compensation.

Not that its a big deal since Leafs are highly unlikely to use this option anyways, even if they lose Marner to an OS themselves.

According to the cap friendly calculator the Leafs meet the requirement.

 

[Morbo]

okay...but where is the word consecutive in that link?

 

[Notsince67]

You know, in university I was taught that a coefficient of correlation that small is considered weak to completely incidental. But maybe in practice there are fields where that level of correlation is significant, I can't be sure.

But let me simplify my argument, because I fear that I may get lost if we get too technical:

Mitch's primary assists by season: 24, 28, 52.

Matthews' goals by season: 40, 34, 37.


Looking at that admittedly limited sample size, would it not be fair to state that out of those 6 data points, 1 jumps out at you as a very possible outlier?

So what does that mean? I see a trend upwards from when an undersized marner entered the league. I see a skill shift. Look...if you feel that a rather low event stat like goals are more predictive that a higher event....primary point count...go for it. There just isnt any truth to it.

 

[Nineteen67]

View attachment 243181
It is for the four 1st compensation

The tweet doesn’t say they have to be consecutive, however I thought I read somewhere that it was required once it started.
Maybe not.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Is he that poor or just greedy?

I honestly think its a bit of both. He invested a lot of time and money to get him to the NHL and wants to get paid back. Now...If my son was Mitchy and he made it to this point....I would never hold my hand out to get my money back...but that's just me. A lot of parents paid out money for their kids to go far in hockey and the kid never made it all the way. Are they deducting money from the kids paycheck after they get a normal job when they are done with hockey? I really am starting to think that it's more about the "respect" for what Mitch has done for the leafs than it is straight greed. For instance, if they named him captain...he would probably do a 9x8 contract in a heartbeat. His dad bleated about the lack of respect for Mitch after AM signed his deal...so it's deeply rooted in his psyche somewhere.

 

[Trapper]

The tweet doesn’t say they have to be consecutive, however I thought I read somewhere that it was required once it started.
Maybe not.

So in basic terms you need your own 4 1sts in 5 years.

 

[TML Dynasty]

This is the best hot take today.

I think it deserves its own thread so we can keep bumping it

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I've never found Matthews the most driven athlete. Talented yes, overly driven no.

Funny thing is...up until last year it rarely happened where he floated around. Something changed in him in the D-zone for him to float around. My guess is he figured he is never being rewarded with extra ice time for doing the little things..and said screw it..I am just gonna do the minimum in my zone. He was better as a 1st yr player in the D-zone....doesn't make a lot of sense. I blame Babs...it's easier to do than figure out what's going on in AM's head.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

When looking at goals, there is a predictable element year over year as are assists. There is an element of talent that determines goal scoring and one would expect that year 1 vs year 2 has a correlation. Secondary assists have a poorer fit but primary assists have a pretty close fit relatively speaking as well and is really only a .04 r^2 difference from goals. Overvaluing goals to primary assist has no statistical leg to stand on because primary assists are not more arbitrary in a measureable way

I have always been a fan of taking away the second assist. Most of the time it has nothing to do with the play. In addition there should be no goals or assists awarded to a player unless the puck touches their stick... no butt goals, etc.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I knew someone who had a good job but wanted more money. He saw a sales job and applied for it. Lots more money. Lots of time on the road. He quickly regretted it - he hated always being away from home in some far away hotel room.

I wonder if Marner will go thru the same thing - living in some far off city and wishing he was back in Toronto, all for a few dollars more.

 

[crump]

If he signs an offer sheet he will indeed be a ”Man with No Name” in this town.

 

[Nineteen67]

Plus, what NHL city would make any wish they were back in Toronto: Edmonton, Winnipeg, Minneapolis? The list isn’t too long.

 

[Michoulicious]

10.5 x 5 y would be quite decent. Dubas would match (compensation only 2 1st, 2nd, 3rd), and I can see Marner signing at 1 million less than Matthews.

I think it will end up in that range, signing directly with the Leafs or by an offersheet match.

 

[Dayjobdave]

True, but Leafs 1st is conditional and lottery protected this year, so what happens if they keep their own in 2020, and need to forfeit their 2021 instead?

That no longer complies with 4 consecutive picks under those CBA conditions. So potentially because of the lottery protected conditions on the Marleau trade, the Leafs could have disqualified themselves from making an offersheet themselves that includes 1st round picks as compensation.

Not that its a big deal since Leafs are highly unlikely to use this option anyways, even if they lose Marner to an OS themselves.

I thin that if the Leafs initiated an offer sheet they would effectively forfeit the lottery protection on their 2020 pick as they would have to surrender their 2021

 

[Slot]

True, but Leafs 1st is conditional and lottery protected this year, so what happens if they keep their own in 2020, and need to forfeit their 2021 instead?

That no longer complies with 4 consecutive picks under those CBA conditions. So potentially because of the lottery protected conditions on the Marleau trade, the Leafs could have disqualified themselves from making an offersheet themselves that includes 1st round picks as compensation.

Not that its a big deal since Leafs are highly unlikely to use this option anyways, even if they lose Marner to an OS themselves.

As long as the condition is open they are disqualified.

 

[Slot]

I thin that if the Leafs initiated an offer sheet they would effectively forfeit the lottery protection on their 2020 pick as they would have to surrender their 2021

Can you do that retrospectively though?

 

[Notsince67]

I have always been a fan of taking away the second assist. Most of the time it has nothing to do with the play. In addition there should be no goals or assists awarded to a player unless the puck touches their stick... no butt goals, etc.

it really gets to be a dumb argument when assessing talent when people are parsing goal scoring above all else though. There are thousands of minutes to watch with ones eyes and people continue to select a singular low event event activity to definitively prove why a is greater than b. I show that goals are not any more predictive that primary assists and people are complaining about the variablility of the variable to prove what i just said. Stats is not meant to replace imperical observation. I can speak the language of quant because i made a living with it. I am also fully aware of its limitations and misuse. You have probably noticed that i am a pretty big critic of the way it gets used around here. Complex systems such as game dynamics do not do well in reducing ability to singular events when almost every event is probabiliistic to some degree. The stats geek will make outrageous claims such as Nylander is on the same level as Marner when the regular joe puckhead who observes the game knows that this is just not true. To your point....a secondary assist has value when the person who executed it made a difficult move to put the puck into an open position for the next step. The regular person who watches the game knows what good plays look like. There are a lot of them that dont end up in the net. Conversely, there are goals that result from easy tap ins from great passes that are gimmes...hello JVR and JT... this year. These goals really arent exactly the same as a Datsyuk kind if goal. Bottom line....it is better to watch the game than to look at low frequency events to determine skill. Better to look at things holistically and then parse data for an explanation than the other way around.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

it really gets to be a dumb argument when assessing talent when people are parsing goal scoring above all else though. There are thousands of minutes to watch with ones eyes and people continue to select a singular low event event activity to definitively prove why a is greater than b. I show that goals are not any more predictive that primary assists and people are complaining about the variablility of the variable to prove what i just said. Stats is not meant to replace imperical observation. I can speak the language of quant because i made a living with it. I am also fully aware of its limitations and misuse. You have probably noticed that i am a pretty big critic of the way it gets used around here. Complex systems such as game dynamics do not do well in reducing ability to singular events when almost every event is probabiliistic to some degree. The stats geek will make outrageous claims such as Nylander is on the same level as Marner when the regular joe puckhead who observes the game knows that this is just not true. To your point....a secondary assist has value when the person who executed it made a difficult move to put the puck into an open position for the next step. The regular person who watches the game knows what good plays look like. There are a lot of them that dont end up in the net. Conversely, there are goals that result from easy tap ins from great passes that are gimmes...hello JVR and JT... this year. These goals really arent exactly the same as a Datsyuk kind if goal. Bottom line....it is better to watch the game than to look at low frequency events to determine skill. Better to look at things holistically and then parse data for an explanation than the other way around.

This is exactly why I think that "advanced stats" don't fit in hockey. Every single play has too many variables that can't be accounted for mathematically.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

I believe Mitch's Dad is involved in the management side of the Marner inc. if there is such a thing, nothing wrong with that. For some reason, you people think a Dad has no place being involved with his son on the business side

Nobody said that...but when your dad is literally sinking your brand then yes I would be the first to tell my dad to be quiet and get out of the room if he can't be useful. This is MArner's career...not his dad's...not his agents...for a guy that made his brand as the hometown kid who just wants to play for the leafs it really doesn't make any sense to nuke your brand in an RFA environment lol maybe as a UFA I could see it...but he is wearing out all of te good will of the fanbase (who like it or not end up indirectly by way of MLSE) paying his salary...his agent and his dad (and maybe he is too we don't know) are tanking the Marner brand which will only hurt him as his career develops

 

[Morbo]

This is exactly why I think that "advanced stats" don't fit in hockey. Every single play has too many variables that can't be accounted for mathematically.

They're very crude measures considering the "advanced" label.

 

[DarkKnight]

Funny thing is...up until last year it rarely happened where he floated around. Something changed in him in the D-zone for him to float around. My guess is he figured he is never being rewarded with extra ice time for doing the little things..and said screw it..I am just gonna do the minimum in my zone. He was better as a 1st yr player in the D-zone....doesn't make a lot of sense. I blame Babs...it's easier to do than figure out what's going on in AM's head.

If he actually thought that way, I'd want him off the team. I'll just do the minimum, he doesn't think like that or he wouldn't be the player he is....and NO he wasn't better in his own end two years ago, that's just convenient. He's become more responsible every year, if it continues next year (which it will because he's not saying screw it this summer, he's trying to improve) then he will become a reliable 200 ft player.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

I feel $10.5M x 5 is fair and it is what I predicted if an Offer Sheet was not forthcoming.

Sure...then you can do it all again in 5 years with Matthews needing reupped as a UFA same as Marner and...I think Willy is the other one again if I am not mistaken...Andersen and Rielly need new contracts in the interim...to me it makes more sense to try to get the extra years if only to try to preserve some semblance of being able to resign these guys

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Toronto did Marner dirty if they don’t match or come to terms.

Depends on what the match is...we are already in cap hell...and if it's match an 11.5 for Marner or get 4 1st's and a little bit of breathing room, I will take the breathing room as well as the 4 1st's and grab a few guys off the trade market (who doesn't want 1st round picks) and of course dip very lightly into the UFA market

you can't replace the guy he is too good...but you can't break the bank and kill the team just for 1 guy either...tough spot

 

[Heisen]

So what does that mean? I see a trend upwards from when an undersized marner entered the league. I see a skill shift. Look...if you feel that a rather low event stat like goals are more predictive that a higher event....primary point count...go for it. There just isnt any truth to it.

Lol look at these analytics nerds. Goals aren’t a thing to count anymore! Lol, my god.

Horrified spreadsheet people are running this team.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

That would be amazing but we would have to add. And that add may be too much to convince Columbus to trade Jones.

we would have to add...yeah no thats as close to straight up as you're going to find in the NHL...yes Jones has more perceived value because he is a D but name a player in Columbus that can do what Marner can do...heck go back to the beginning of the franchise...I'll wait lol

It would be a blockbuster and it would have to be straight up or else I don't touch Jones with a 30ft pole. Stop devaluing Marner