Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[Marshy]

I knew someone who had a good job but wanted more money. He saw a sales job and applied for it. Lots more money. Lots of time on the road. He quickly regretted it - he hated always being away from home in some far away hotel room.

I wonder if Marner will go thru the same thing - living in some far off city and wishing he was back in Toronto, all for a few dollars more.

At his age? There's simply no way. He has his pals. His family is here. He's a god in the mecca of hockey. He has endorsements coming out his keister. C'mon man give your head a shake.

 

[ORRFForever]

At his age? There's simply no way. He has his pals. He's a god in the mecca of hockey. He has endorsements coming out his keister. C'mon man give your head a shake.

My buddy wasn't that old and he regretted it.

Some people are home bodies. I would not want to move away - especially after having it all in Toronto.

**

After rereading your post, I think you may have either misread my post, or misunderstood it.

 

[Marshy]

My buddy wasn't that old and he regretted it.

Some people are home bodies. I would not want to move away - especially after having it all in Toronto.

**

After rereading your post, I think you may have either misread my post, or misunderstood it.

I understood the part where you hope he doesn't leave for a few more dollars. That won't sway him.

Your buddy did he have hometown hero worship and major endorsements and the best of everything in his hometown?

Some people leave and regret it. Marner is not some people.

 

[YearsintheWilderness]

By asking this question, you're committing a logical fallacy, because it is impossible to prove that something does not exist.

The onus isn't on Prospector to prove that there was no offer made - the onus is on you, if you doubt him, to show us some evidence that an offer sheet was proffered.

In my opinion, you're over-reaching with claims of this supposed fallacy. In other words, a 'fallacy' fallacy. That type of informal logic only applies to things that are literally unfalsifiable (i.e., claims that an invisible sky daddy exists).

Claims that something didn't happen in the material world are, in fact, not necessarily unfalsifiable.

For example, I can quite confidently prove that the CN Tower didn't just collapse.

In the case of the offer sheet it would be more difficult. But still not impossible.

 

[ORRFForever]

I understood the part where you hope he doesn't leave for a few more dollars. That won't sway him.

Your buddy did he have hometown hero worship and major endorsements and the best of everything in his hometown?

Some people leave and regret it. Marner is not some people.

Unless you know him personally, I'm not sure how you can say that.

His entire hockey life (including junior) has been close to home so...

If an O.S. comes in and he still chooses home, perhaps home means more than $$$.

If not, he'll take the $$$ and see his new home as an adventure and the next step in life.

 

[Marshy]

Unless you know him personally, I'm not sure how you can say that.

His entire hockey life (including junior) has been close to home so...

Call it a hunch. I'm from Toronto and left home at his age too. No regrets though.

 

[ORRFForever]

Call it a hunch. I'm from Toronto and left home at his age too. No regrets though.

Fair enough.

 

[hfman]

For example, I can quite confidently prove that the CN Tower didn't just collapse.

go ahead. prove it.

we got witnesses here who say otherwise

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Man, I only started reading these threads this week and wow what a shit show these are. I don't know why anyone would defend Marner or his camp. They're being completely unreasonable and selfish. If he gets OS 11mil, you take that and forget about him.

Some people need to put their attachment and biases towards certain players away and start caring about the team as a whole. Marner is my favourite player probably ever, and if he wants to be greedy while impactinf the team negatively he can gtfo. Pretty simple. Some of you need to stop with the gas lighting also.

 

[ORRFForever]

Man, I only started reading these threads this week and wow what a **** show these are. I don't know why anyone would defend Marner or his camp. They're being completely unreasonable and selfish. If he gets OS 11mil, you take that and forget about him.

Some people need to put their attachment and biases towards certain players away and start caring about the team as a whole. Marner is my favourite player probably ever, and if he wants to be greedy while impactinf the team negatively he can gtfo. Pretty simple. Some of you need to stop with the gas lighting also.

I think 99% of us believe he's being too greedy.

I feel there is a middle ground ($10.5M +/- $500K) and I hope we get there.

 

[hfman]

Man, I only started reading these threads this week and wow what a **** show these are. I don't know why anyone would defend Marner or his camp. They're being completely unreasonable and selfish. If he gets OS 11mil, you take that and forget about him.

Some people need to put their attachment and biases towards certain players away and start caring about the team as a whole. Marner is my favourite player probably ever, and if he wants to be greedy while impactinf the team negatively he can gtfo. Pretty simple. Some of you need to stop with the gas lighting also.

but what do you think?

did the CN Tower collapse?

yes or no?

 

[Kurtz]

In my opinion, you're over-reaching with claims of this supposed fallacy. In other words, a 'fallacy' fallacy. That type of informal logic only applies to things that are literally unfalsifiable (i.e., claims that an invisible sky daddy exists).

Claims that something didn't happen in the material world are, in fact, not necessarily unfalsifiable.

For example, I can quite confidently prove that the CN Tower didn't just collapse.

In the case of the offer sheet it would be more difficult. But still not impossible.

But the CN Tower did collapse. The only reason I can see it right now is that God intervened and restored it, later wiping the incident from our memory. Or Merlin healed it with magic and made everyone forget that it happened. Or Aliens did it.

Prove to me that none of the above occurred.

How would you go about proving that an offer-sheet was not proffered, beyond a reasonable doubt? You'd have to inquire with all GMs, and you'd have no way to ascertain which one of them was lying. I agree it's not theoretically impossible, but would suggest that it is in fact impossible in practice.

 

[biotk]

Why don't other teams pay 70 point players as though they were 110 point players due to the "threat of an offer sheet"?

The Leafs don't view Matthews the same way you do.

 

[Notsince67]

Gotcha. I do like the fact that you're using primary assists rather than overall assists, that's an intelligent approach.

Couple of questions:

- Could I ask you what your sample size was?
- Marner only had one season where he had an outstanding primary assist tally. In fact, he nearly doubled his primary assist tally from the season prior. Could we not acknowledge the possibility of an outlier?
- My 2 stats courses are a decade behind me and I forget the term (multicollinearity?), but is it possible that other variables are influencing your equation, such as linemate quality?
- Finally, William Nylander had more primary assists than Mitch a season ago. If we were having this discussion a year ago, and focusing on primary assists as we are now, would you have suggested that Nylander is as good as Marner and deserves the same money?

The variability of both goals and primary assist are still highly variable. Goals for instance are .222 r^2 which isnt the strongest fit. There are a lot of variables but i was not selling the premise that primary assists are definitive proof of skill. Only that they are as closely linked to skill as goals. I would also look at factors such as quality of competition though those numbers can be questionable as well. Quality of team mates are factors too. Factors such as ozone starts can help. Here is the thing though. As one of the top primary point producers in the league (i believe #2 at ev), there is a sufficient sample size within a singular season to discount an outlier by including both goals and primary assists. There are sufficient events imo to be pretty conclusive...much more so than just goals.

 

[YearsintheWilderness]

But the CN Tower did collapse. The only reason I can see it right now is that God intervened and restored it, later wiping the incident from our memory. Or Merlin healed it with magic and made everyone forget that it happened. Or Aliens did it.

Prove to me that none of the above occurred.

How would you go about proving that an offer-sheet was not proffered, beyond a reasonable doubt? You'd have to inquire with all GMs, and you'd have no way to ascertain which one of them was lying. I agree it's not theoretically impossible, but would suggest that it is in fact impossible in practice.

Time to shut down the criminal justice system and fling open the doors of all prisons...

 

[Marshy]

The only reason I can see it right now is that God intervened and restored it, later wiping the incident from our memory.

If anyone could do that the invisible being in the sky could.

 

[Kurtz]

Time to shut down the criminal justice system and fling open the doors of all prisons...

Ah, but prisoners aren't necessarily in prison because they've committed a crime. They're in prison because society determined that some other person (or persons) gets the power to decide that they be sent there.

For example, there are thousands of scholars imprisoned in Turkey right now for the crime of teaching something that Erdogan didn't feel should be taught.

 

[jaric1862]

Offer sheets don’t make a whole lot of sense for guys like Marner. Either you overpay handsomely and have no first for four years and a mammoth contract that prevents your from signing other players or You give him a deal that the leafs will match but is a bit high for Marner. All that does is drag all the RFA comparables up, making all teams pay more for RFAs with no arb rights. No one wins. It’s better for all teams for these RFA’s to be on friendly contracts because it drags everyone else down. This is more of a team vs player scenario then it is Team vs team.

 

[trellaine201]

You have to remember there are lots of DUMB owners. They never learn.

 

[Kurtz]

The variability of both goals and primary assist are still highly variable. Goals for instance are .222 r^2 which isnt the strongest fit. There are a lot of variables but i was not selling the premise that primary assists are definitive proof of skill. Only that they are as closely linked to skill as goals. I would also look at factors such as quality of competition though those numbers can be questionable as well. Quality of team mates are factors too. Factors such as ozone starts can help. Here is the thing though. As one of the top primary point producers in the league (i believe #2 at ev), there is a sufficient sample size within a singular season to discount an outlier by including both goals and primary assists. There are sufficient events imo to be pretty conclusive...much more so than just goals.

You know, in university I was taught that a coefficient of correlation that small is considered weak to completely incidental. But maybe in practice there are fields where that level of correlation is significant, I can't be sure.

But let me simplify my argument, because I fear that I may get lost if we get too technical:

Mitch's primary assists by season: 24, 28, 52.

Matthews' goals by season: 40, 34, 37.


Looking at that admittedly limited sample size, would it not be fair to state that out of those 6 data points, 1 jumps out at you as a very possible outlier?

 

[Leafs at Knight]

but what do you think?

did the CN Tower collapse?

yes or no?

Lol I don't even know what that is in reference to and I don't think I want to. I'm guessing it's that Waffles clown, not sure how he isn't on everyone's ignore list.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Hey. Canes fan here. Let me know if you want me to get lost, but I thought I might be able to help sort through some things as the only team to actually have a young RFA offer sheeted. Who woulda thunk we'd be lucky that we were the first targets, being able to lock up Aho (thanks Bergevin!) before shit got real? Some comments on some comments and then a question.

We could offersheet [Gusev] at 4M and only give up a 2nd

Do to lack of NHL service time, Gusev is actually an RFA *not* subject to an offer sheet. Gotta trade for him.

I guess bad logic still technically counts as logic, but Marner is unequivocally not worth Matthews money

Maybe not, but Matthews isn't worth Matthews money. IMO, you all are in this mess because of the Matthews deal. It was simply too much for a non-max term deal. Looking at McDavid, Eichel and Draisaitl's contracts coming off their entry-level deals is fine for a comparable AAV, but he had to take the eight years -- like McDavid, Eichel and Draisaitl -- to get that AAV. Giving him "second only to McDavid" money without McDavid term *destroyed* Toronto's cap, and in essence, made Matthews the highest-paid player in the league. Doing it when you have another elite player also coming off his entry-level deal was just stupid.

In short, there was *no* reason to give Matthews the AAV without the term to go with it. But since Dubas did it, now he's having to live with Marner expecting the same type treatment -- even for a few less $$ AAV -- and not being able to say no since he did it once already. I don't think you're going to see any contract come close to Matthews's in terms of AAV over five years around the league, *except* for Marner, because he's also dealing with Dubas, who already gave that contract to a teammate.

The same reporter also said that Montreal, one of the cited teams, offered Brayden Point who also turned down the offer.

If MTL is really making an offer, it *must* be above the $10,568,590 AAV for the four first-round pick compensation because they can't make any other offer until Carolina files the paperwork on Aho's match, freeing up MTL's other draft picks.

Not really, the Leafs have all the leverage. Why won't they make him sit?

They *don't* have all the leverage. We posted that we had all the leverage in the Aho situation and were *shocked* that he got an offer sheet, since we were very well set up to defend one. As long as an offer sheet is possible, Marner has leverage. It's a matter of whether he chooses to use it or not. Personally, I was stunned Aho did.

Now, my question: Why is Marner's camp asking for a three-year term? Isn't he still and RFA after that? Is he that confident he can game the system *twice*? I think it would be very easy to poach Marner if he's willing to sign for three years by back-loading the deal (say $7 million, $10.5 million, $14 million) on a $10.5 AAV (i.e. staying under the four first-round picks cutoff) and having his "platform" year for his next RFA contract set at $14 million in 2022-23. There's no way Toronto could *qualify* him at $14 million in 2022-23.

This seems a lot like the Aho situation to me. The team wants a long-term solution. The player wants to cash in multiple times. Only you guys have to deal with the Matthews comparable and Marner probably won't sign a Canadiens offer sheet.

I hope he stays in Toronto. We don't need any more talent in the Metro. But it's really starting to look bad, and Dubas really only has himself to blame.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Maybe not, but Matthews isn't worth Matthews money. IMO, you all are in this mess because of the Matthews deal. It was simply too much for a non-max term deal. Looking at McDavid, Eichel and Draisaitl's contracts coming off their entry-level deals is fine for a comparable AAV, but he had to take the eight years -- like McDavid, Eichel and Draisaitl -- to get that AAV. Giving him "second only to McDavid" money without McDavid term *destroyed* Toronto's cap, and in essence, made Matthews the highest-paid player in the league. Doing it when you have another elite player also coming off his entry-level deal was just stupid.

In short, there was *no* reason to give Matthews the AAV without the term to go with it. But since Dubas did it, now he's having to live with Marner expecting the same type treatment -- even for a few less $$ AAV -- and not being able to say no since he did it once already. I don't think you're going to see any contract come close to Matthews's in terms of AAV over five years around the league, *except* for Marner, because he's also dealing with Dubas, who already gave that contract to a teammate.

The Leafs felt that other teams would pay Matthews this contract or higher, and I think they are right about that. They also think nobody would give the same to Marner, and I believe that too. Even if Matthews doesn't deserve his contract, that's not an excuse to make an even worse mistake by giving it to a less deserving player.

As far as nobody being close, I'd argue Panarin's contract is already very similar. Yes I know it's 7 years, but paying 11.6 for Panarin as a 34-35 year old doesn't make the value any better to me. Paying 11 million for Tavares' declining years is also not as good as paying Matthews for his prime. It's also apparent that RFAs want short term deals now, as they think the cap will go up a lot. I think we will see a shift in contract value, but I'm not sure it will come soon enough for Matthews' deal to look good by the time it's up.

 

[Gabriel426]

If my math and my understanding of LTIR is correct, due to the injury to Hyman and Dermott in the beginning of the season, the Leafs can match any offer sheet for only the 2 1st and 1 2nd and 1 3rd range.
So if Marner is signing an OS, Leafs will get 4 1st. Am I right?

 

[My Special Purpose]

As far as nobody being close, I'd argue Panarin's contract is already very similar. Yes I know it's 7 years, but paying 11.6 for Panarin as a 34-35 year old doesn't make the value any better to me. Paying 11 million for Tavares' declining years is also not as good as paying Matthews for his prime. It's also apparent that RFAs want short term deals now, as they think the cap will go up a lot. I think we will see a shift in contract value, but I'm not sure it will come soon enough for Matthews' deal to look good by the time it's up.

But you don't *have* to pay Matthews for his prime years. Not like this. There are leverage points for both sides in an RFA negotiation. TOR used *none* of them in the Matthews negotiation. They basically gave him the AAV he wanted over the term he wanted.

I'm sure RFAs want shorter deals now. But Aho just got *offer sheeted* at $8.5 million over five years. That's a hostile offer designed to steal a player and it was 30 percent less than Matthews.

No other RFA -- not Point, not Rantanen, not Tkachuk -- is looking for eight figures in a short-term deal, except Marner. And that's because Dubas gave the same deal to Matthews when he didn't have to.