Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[81Leafs50]

He signs 12.5x5 with someone else.

With use our cap space and the Golden Knights cap crunch to flip one of the 1dts for Gusev, who you put on Tavares wing.

Use the other cash left for a Ferland type to play 3W, and bring Gardiner back on a 1 year deal.

NO to Gardiner and Ferland. Leafs have Reilly, Muzzin, and Dermott on the left side with many Marlies ready to step in if injuries occur.

I honestly cannot stand another season of people crying all over social media about Gardiner and how he plays.

Leafs have enough forwards. Ferland is nothing but a bottom 6 players. that money can be better spent.

Take Marners money and offer sheet a team. WPG for Connor or Laine. They cannot handle it. if they match then that offer sheet sets the price of the other and they cannot afford both.

 

[DarkKnight]

it really gets to be a dumb argument when assessing talent when people are parsing goal scoring above all else though. There are thousands of minutes to watch with ones eyes and people continue to select a singular low event event activity to definitively prove why a is greater than b. I show that goals are not any more predictive that primary assists and people are complaining about the variablility of the variable to prove what i just said. Stats is not meant to replace imperical observation. I can speak the language of quant because i made a living with it. I am also fully aware of its limitations and misuse. You have probably noticed that i am a pretty big critic of the way it gets used around here. Complex systems such as game dynamics do not do well in reducing ability to singular events when almost every event is probabiliistic to some degree. The stats geek will make outrageous claims such as Nylander is on the same level as Marner when the regular joe puckhead who observes the game knows that this is just not true. To your point....a secondary assist has value when the person who executed it made a difficult move to put the puck into an open position for the next step. The regular person who watches the game knows what good plays look like. There are a lot of them that dont end up in the net. Conversely, there are goals that result from easy tap ins from great passes that are gimmes...hello JVR and JT... this year. These goals really arent exactly the same as a Datsyuk kind if goal. Bottom line....it is better to watch the game than to look at low frequency events to determine skill. Better to look at things holistically and then parse data for an explanation than the other way around.

I don't understand how anyone could actually parse out the third year of a third year pro as an "outlier". There's a thing called "hitting your prime", which gives extra weight to the most recent subset, given you know the totals improve with a younger star. Statistically, is it not pretty basic to assume improvement?

And, it's funny to me, we have a 10 year sample with JT, which incorporates all the things we can't conclude with Marner and that shows a career year in terms of 5 v 5 production, just completely stand on their own, eye popping production, relative to all his other years and yet people can't credit Marner. That's a hell of a lot more statistically relevant than actually using a rookie primary assist number to discount a THIRD YEAR pro hitting his stride.

 

[Michoulicious]

If he signs an offer sheet he will indeed be a ”Man with No Name” in this town.

He'll get around 10.5 x 5 . No way he accepts 2+ millions less than Matthews on the same term, especially after his clan saying he feels he's worth as much as him.

If Dubas does not give it to him, someone else will. 2 x 1st, 2nd, 3rd is a bargain for a player like him.

Only thing is he said he really wants to be a Leaf, and it is his childhood team. He must really be sure before signing an offersheet with someone else, because even if Dubas matches, he'll be constantly reminded by the media/fans that he did choose to play with another team. It might turn into a circus.

I'm sure he'll get an offersheet in the 10.5 x 5 range, but I'm not as sure he'll be willing to sign it with all the consequences that would come with it. He has to make believe Dubas he's ready to do it if he wants to get that 10+ x 5 y deal with the Leafs, though.

Interesting times! Bluff, or not?

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Marner is better. The takes here are a joke. Guaranteed that when the two enter free agency, Marner will be paid more and he knows it. If Dubas wants to stay a gm for the leafs, he better get on the program of treating the kid with respect. If Marner is walked or decides to walk in 4 years, Dubas will be seen as the guy who lost a superstar. The future will show that. He wont work in the league in this capacity again.

Relax dude, it's a preference thing...Matthews and Marner are a razor thin difference in terms of production (add in expected points during Matthews missed time) but there are things the NHL values and whether we agree or not thats what it is
1)Draft Ranking <Matthews
2)Position< Matthews
3)Goals Goals Goals< Matthews
4)Points< Marner
5) Advanced stats< Marner
6) can they be used on special teams< Marner ekes it out because of PK
7) Do they take faceoffs? <Matthews
8)Marketability <Matthews (Canada and USA) Marner(Toronto)
These are values that whether we like it or not are tossed into every decision made...and Matthews ekes out slightly ahead of Marner when you're looking at these...10.5x6-7 is more than fair for MM and should not leave him feeling "disappointed" if he "demands" more then he can take his snotty demands and wait on the OS and when it doesn't come he can find his way out of town, the Leafs aren't a Marner only team these days...it'll suck but we will survive with a few less highlight reel plays to watch

(P.S I adore Marner and I really don't want him to leave but we have to look at reality here and not get stuck on favourites)

 

[Zack47]

I am so sick of this. Kawhi gone, now what Mitch? Have you figured out yet that your reputation is at stake here? How many dollars per year is it worth it to push the limits but lose the respect, the love, you built here? Do you understand your father, your agent, are poisoning your future? Did you see that wonderful Clint Eastwood movie reference, which was brilliant? Did you learn ANYTHING from the Nylander situation -- do you want to score 7 goals next year? Do you want to squander a real opportunity to progress towards a cup for half a million a year? What IS your problem?

If Marner takes all summer to play this game, colour me disgusted, with the I-me-Mine young'uns on the Leafs. This does not make for winning teams. No, I am already disgusted. All of the details of assists vs. goals, wings vs. centres, cup-winning vs. first round exits, whatever, it all really doesn't matter. By arguing these details, you are getting sucked into the discourse of the moment. Take the long view Mitch. Stop this nonsense. Sign now, so you can focus and play well next year.

 

[81Leafs50]

I don't think that's true.

Yes that is true. You cannot pick witch 4 of the 5. its 4 consecutive.

 

[Notsince67]

Lol look at these analytics nerds. Goals aren’t a thing to count anymore! Lol, my god.

Horrified spreadsheet people are running this team.

I never said that. Does looking at goals for half a period have more value than looking at goals for a game? If primary assists are as closely correlated as goals are from a repeatability perspective, does it make sense not to count primary assists as well as goals in assessing success? Do you understand that margin of error increases on smaller frequencies? Non practicing stat heads have been the bane of my existence professionally for a few decades. There is no appreciation for the fact that a change in behaviour or a rule shifts the behaviour of the population. To imply that I am parsing data and stats by including events is really pretty absurd. I am doing the opposite of what other are doing.

 

[Morbo]

Yes that is true. You cannot pick witch 4 of the 5. its 4 consecutive.

source? link?

 

[18leafsfan18]

Nice to see how fast fans turn this into Matthews hate thread.

Get a franchise C who scores at a better rate then almost anyone in the league and everyone thinks he is awful.

Leafs fans are crazy.

 

[horner]

NO to Gardiner and Ferland. Leafs have Reilly, Muzzin, and Dermott on the left side with many Marlies ready to step in if injuries occur.

I honestly cannot stand another season of people crying all over social media about Gardiner and how he plays.

Leafs have enough forwards. Ferland is nothing but a bottom 6 players. that money can be better spent.

Take Marners money and offer sheet a team. WPG for Connor or Laine. They cannot handle it. if they match then that offer sheet sets the price of the other and they cannot afford both.

Kyle Connor

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Ovechkin, kucherov, brett and bobby hull....do you understand? Do you understand what a correlation coefficient of .04 between goals and primary assists means? Is there a better language to communicate to you so I dont need to repeat this?

yeah...ditch the advanced stats (We aren't money ball over here) and talk about the actual player instead of a graph or pie chart or w/e...usually works well when talking to fans lol

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Stats prove it. You have no arguments other than your feelings

Keep in mind according to advanced stats Cody Ceci should do phenomenally with the leafs I don't know about that...also didn't it have Jake Gardiner as a well above average Dman...advanced stats have a place and a time but shouldn't be everything in something that is as random as hockey...

 

[Notsince67]

I don't understand how anyone could actually parse out the third year of a third year pro as an "outlier". There's a thing called "hitting your prime", which gives extra weight to the most recent subset, given you know the totals improve with a younger star. Statistically, is it not pretty basic to assume improvement?

And, it's funny to me, we have a 10 year sample with JT, which incorporates all the things we can't conclude with Marner and that shows a career year in terms of 5 v 5 production, just completely stand on their own, eye popping production, relative to all his other years and yet people can't credit Marner. That's a hell of a lot more statistically relevant than actually using a rookie primary assist number to discount a THIRD YEAR pro hitting his stride.

Context is everything and putting numbers together without context is something only a hack would do. Gretzky scored some ridiculous number like 300 goals in one year of peewee. Did he regress? Of course not. Populations shift all the time.

 

[HolyCrap]

we would have to add...yeah no thats as close to straight up as you're going to find in the NHL...yes Jones has more perceived value because he is a D but name a player in Columbus that can do what Marner can do...heck go back to the beginning of the franchise...I'll wait lol

It would be a blockbuster and it would have to be straight up or else I don't touch Jones with a 30ft pole. Stop devaluing Marner

That’s your opinion. It doesn’t mean you’re right. I think Jones has more value and from what I’ve read a lot of people agree. It’s close to one for one value but personally Leafs would have to add.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

That’s your opinion. It doesn’t mean you’re right. I think Jones has more value and from what I’ve read a lot of people agree. It’s close to one for one value but personally Leafs would have to add.

no issue with that take at all...and to be fair when you say add I see 1st rounder or a Sandin and to me that would be way too much lol

 

[Notsince67]

yeah...ditch the advanced stats (We aren't money ball over here) and talk about the actual player instead of a graph or pie chart or w/e...usually works well when talking to fans lol

When dealing with a claim that goals are more important or predictive than primary assists, i have no problem putting some numbers around it to speak to the data. Data is useful for sure. Anecdotally i can say that my observation of Marner game in and game out tells me he is better than Matthews. If you bring up goals....well you cant have it both ways.

 

[Notsince67]

Keep in mind according to advanced stats Cody Ceci should do phenomenally with the leafs I don't know about that...also didn't it have Jake Gardiner as a well above average Dman...advanced stats have a place and a time but shouldn't be everything in something that is as random as hockey...

Im pretty sure Ceci has both bad corsi (which doesnt mean a lot to me) and has bad zone denial, zone exits and carry ins. Ceci is not good.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

When dealing with a claim that goals are more important or predictive than primary assists, i have no problem putting some numbers around it to speak to the data. Data is useful for sure. Anecdotally i can say that my observation of Marner game in and game out tells me he is better than Matthews. If you bring up goals....well you cant have it both ways.

I hear you...I can see you're getting frustrated lol I was just trying to lower the boil a little...lighten the mood as they say... it's tough because when Matthews is on...that dude changes a game...I would give you Marner is more consistent...but couldn't that have something to do with the routes they took to the NHL (Marner through the grind of the CHL) and Matthews through Europe and the Swiss league?

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Im pretty sure Ceci has both bad corsi (which doesnt mean a lot to me) and has bad zone denial, zone exits and carry ins. Ceci is not good.

Thank god I'm not the only one who thinks he might be our new tire fire lol... I kinda blew your answers up my dude...sorry about that, yours gave me the most to work with lol

 

[18leafsfan18]

When dealing with a claim that goals are more important or predictive than primary assists, i have no problem putting some numbers around it to speak to the data. Data is useful for sure. Anecdotally i can say that my observation of Marner game in and game out tells me he is better than Matthews. If you bring up goals....well you cant have it both ways.

Is it not totally obvious that the team and the rest of the GMs in the league don't agree ?

 

[Mess]

Yes that is true. You cannot pick witch 4 of the 5. its 4 consecutive.

According to Capgeek at least that "consecutive" might not be correct.

It seems Leafs do qualify to give an OS that requires 4 X 1sts, but are actually disqualified from all the lower categories that require 2 X 1sts or less.

If you put in $11 mil and 5+ more years as variables it shows the results.

Offer Sheet Calculator
Link: Offer Sheet Calculator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

CBA QO rules:
What are the details for the club making the offer sheet?

To submit an Offer Sheet, the following conditions must be met:

1. The submitting club must have all of the required draft picks available prior to submission
2. All of the draft picks required as compensation must be the club's own draft picks (draft picks acquired from a different team in a trade cannot be used)
3. The draft picks must available in the nearest entry draft, unless the compensation requires two or more draft picks in the same round: an extra year can be used to for compensation for these picks (if two 1st round picks are required, the club must have two 1st round picks available in the next three drafts)
4. If an Offer Sheet is proposed in which multiple draft picks from the same round are required as compensation, the additional draft picks are sourced from the immediately succeeding drafts in which the draft picks are available
5. A club is permitted to present multiple Offer Sheets, so long as the club has all of the picks required to satisfy each Offer Sheet.

NOTE: Clubs who do not have all of their own picks cannot substitute those picks with picks they have obtained from other clubs. However, clubs can reacquire their own picks in order to meet the requirements, but they must do so prior to submission

PS. In order for the Leafs to make an OS for 4 X 1sts comp they would have to give up their lottery protected 2020 one in the process regardless if Canes do not get it next year.

 

[Braun]

Depends on what the match is...we are already in cap hell...and if it's match an 11.5 for Marner or get 4 1st's and a little bit of breathing room, I will take the breathing room as well as the 4 1st's and grab a few guys off the trade market (who doesn't want 1st round picks) and of course dip very lightly into the UFA market

you can't replace the guy he is too good...but you can't break the bank and kill the team just for 1 guy either...tough spot

I think the correct answer was to to trade Nylander to sign Marner.

 

[Bronxxx]

What do Lindros, Orr, Bossy, Bure, Lemieux have in common? Do Marner and Dubas recognize this?

 

[81Leafs50]

source? link?

CBA

 

[Throw More Waffles]

10.5 x 5 y would be quite decent. Dubas would match (compensation only 2 1st, 2nd, 3rd), and I can see Marner signing at 1 million less than Matthews.

I think it will end up in that range, signing directly with the Leafs or by an offersheet match.

Why would 10.5x5 be “decent” when a player with similar elc stats just signed 8.5x5?