Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[Notsince67]

If Mitch is worth a double digit deal, then so is Aho. Why didn't any team offer Aho double digits on an offer sheet then?

Strawman argument

 

[Notsince67]

Marner only wants an offersheet the Leafs will match. Teams tendering an OS want to make it prohibitive that the Leafs would match (or else it just unnecessarily raises the RFA pay scale for everyone including offering team).

There's the rub. When Dubas said the Leafs don't necessarily match - GAME OVER PAUL AND DARREN!

No more leverage.

When Marner doesnt sign until training camp....who has no more leverage? Marner? Didnt work with Willy

 

[Nineteen67]

Nope. I don't accept that response. He didn't know full well they would match. The contract was designed in a way that would specifically make it difficult for Carolina to match.

He signed that contract with Montreal. A team that has all the same "disadvantages" that Toronto has. He had very similar stats to Marner. 8.5x5

Nah. He was speeding up the process and got it done. They’re all on vacation now.

 

[nuck]

When Dubas said he wouldn't necessarily match an OS, doesn't that incentify other teams to consider an OS because now there is a chance they could get Marner at the right price point?

When most GMs firmly say "we will match any and all OS submitted" then what use is it for another team to even try as it would be a waste of their time?.

So Dubas might have increased the odds he will be facing an offersheet challenge, and then if he matches it, he is basically bidding against himself in essence by driving up Marner's contract to OS levels at rate of pay higher than he was willing to commit himself.

This is almost a play a GM would make if its the compensation picks that are your end game agenda to help resolve this contract stalemate.

The declaration of matching or not is just smoke. Nobody matches a $13M OS and nobody fails to match a $10 OS for a player like Mitch regardless of what was announced. "We're tough, we play hardball, come at us with your offer sheet bro" " versus "Be absolutely certain you would play where you sign at because we can't let another team determine our pay structure so OS doesn't equal a bottomless wallet". Any GM will have a worst case "take" number. They have cap space and Willie does not = Mitch and clubs know this so there is no way to outspend the Leafs because of the cap. If they have to choose its adios Mango but the there is an adios Mitch number as well.

It really does come to how much are you prepared to overpay a 26 goal scorer on the assumption of future growth? Nick Backstrom had an 88pt 21 year old season, topped it the next year, and only once managed 80 points in the next 8 years. That is far more common than anything like what Kucherov accomplished. Mitch wasn't a top ten scorer this season and he might only ever be 8-12th in points but he might be more. KD and the mystery OS GM may have a different idea as to where MM can go and that is where a door gets opened or slammed for the OS to happen. I think Dubas having the amount of available cap that he does is proof that they are close to matching any reasonable number without much issue, so another team needs stupid money to make it work. I also think if any team actually was prepared to drop $12M on Mitch they would have done that on Aho and that the Montreal OS is not some weird outlier.

 

[Nineteen67]

Poor Aho, he was so close to getting away from that Storm Surge thing. I mean if you have to dress us like Bozo the Clown to get fans to show up maybe it's time to move the team?

Winning draws fans. Heck the even Toronto basketball team out drew the Saskatchewan CFL team for once.

 

[Menzinger]

Marner's camp needs to either sign an offersheet or stop flogging the suggestion of it to the media.

 

[Nineteen67]

And take a further hit on lack of endorsements? No, he won't.

The endorsements and premium are prerequisites to playing in Toronto.

 

[Nineteen67]

No, I doubt it. Toronto is his 1st choice. Toronto is not a bad place to be.

I beg to differ.

 

[Sonofamitch]

Honestly at this point if he wants anything in the double digits I’d move him. There’s no reason to pay a winger 10+ when you have two number 1 centres being paid double digits. Look at Pittsburgh they didn’t need elite wingers to win cups. We can do the same. I’d move him for a good top 6 winger on a cheap deal and a legit top 4 RHD.

 

[nuck]

When Marner doesnt sign until training camp....who has no more leverage? Marner? Didnt work with Willy

If there is no OS forthcoming by then it probably does reduce the player leverage. If any team in the league can get by without a scoring winger for a while its probably the Leafs. If he has to go until November I think Dubas will do it for sure. 20-20 hindsight Willie would have been sitting out all of last season. The club is less likely to use that as a final solution for Mitch but if he is using Matthews money or bust as his hard number it could happen. This is a defining moment for a GM and Dubas getting pressured into over payments last season does not mean that he doesn't have a Shanahan supported limit. The agents have their players going down a path designed to erase the RFA disadvantage and the owners will not wait until the next CBA to react and push back.

Marner is a hockey player first and foremost, and unlike Willie I don't believe he would sit out a season for more money. Once he decides he has the best deal the Leafs can offer he will be back. I just hope it can be done without a bunch of missed games.

 

[TML1967]

Marner only wants an offersheet the Leafs will match. Teams tendering an OS want to make it prohibitive that the Leafs would match (or else it just unnecessarily raises the RFA pay scale for everyone including offering team).

There's the rub. When Dubas said the Leafs don't necessarily match - GAME OVER PAUL AND DARREN!

No more leverage.

What I dont like about this narrative, is that he is willing to sign an OS.

Its totally within his right of course, as its withing the fans rights to judge you for it, and for it to change your stature as a local hero.

Signing an offersheet is literally signing a deal to play somewhere else. Sure the team you are currently on can match, but you as the player are agreeing to play somewhere else.

Ya cant do that and pretend to be the local kid who is the everyman. Media might let it slide but lost fans are gonna be pissed.

What I fond interesting is all his sponsorship deals. Usually you get paid by the market your in, I.e. if in Toronto you'll get 100$, if your in Arizona you'll get 20. I wonder how much he would be giving up between all the deals by moving to a Colorado, or Carolina, or Buffalo.

 

[thewave]

Sure until you have to start paying Rielly, Barrie, Muzzin, Andy, Ceci etc. unless you want Dubas to juggle the lineup year in and year out as the Hawks have had to do for years. The difference is they paid their stars after they won something.

As things stand now, one of the big 3 should be moved.

Pay long term up front as RFA and win late into contracts.

Pay after you win in UFA, probably never get another sniff.

Pay early for short term, never win at all.


The player / team relationship is broken and dead. It's going to be board man gets paaaid, from now on in the NHL. Quick trades, swaps, luxury tax etc. Seems like teams are in denial and fans too, don't get use to Matthews and Marners anymore. Its all about me moving for money and breaking little kids heart's now.

 

[IPS]

Honestly at this point if he wants anything in the double digits I’d move him. There’s no reason to pay a winger 10+ when you have two number 1 centres being paid double digits. Look at Pittsburgh they didn’t need elite wingers to win cups. We can do the same. I’d move him for a good top 6 winger on a cheap deal and a legit top 4 RHD.

Kessel, Guentzel, Hornqvist, Sheary was a pretty damn good set of wingers TBH.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Marner's camp needs to either sign an offersheet or stop flogging the suggestion of it to the media.

Are they still? Haven't heard any news for awhile.

If I'm Dubas, I tell Marner there's 10-11 million sitting there for him, and I'm heading to the cottage until he decides to come claim it for 6-8 years.

 

[Sonofamitch]

Kessel, Guentzel, Hornqvist, Sheary was a pretty damn good set of wingers TBH.

Not elite wingers though. Crosby made most of those guys who they are. Kessel was the highest paid one and he only made 6.8

My point is you don’t need a 11 million dollar winger paired with a 11 million dollar center. The center should be able to drive their line without the elite level talent. Still need legit top 6 wingers but not a 11 million dollar one. I’d rather spread that money over two roster spots. A 5 million dollar winger (slightly better than KK and AJ) and a 6 million dollar defender.

 

[Pookie]

If (according to you) Aho is worth “double digits”, then why would he sign a 8.5x5 offer sheet?

You are making a false equivalency.

Aho and Marner are not the same player.

Marner has 28 more career points and never finished under 60. Marner is the 4th overall pick and Aho is a 2nd rounder. While there are 28 points that separate them now, there’s much more than that.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Not elite wingers though. Crosby made most of those guys who they are. Kessel was the highest paid one and he only made 6.8

My point is you don’t need a 11 million dollar winger paired with a 11 million dollar center. The center should be able to drive their line without the elite level talent. Still need legit top 6 wingers but not a 11 million dollar one. I’d rather spread that money over two roster spots. A 5 million dollar winger (slightly better than KK and AJ) and a 6 million dollar defender.

That's sketchy though. Your 6 million dollar defender can regress and be a boat anchor in a hurry, and now you've traded a great player for an ok winger and an albatross, and your cap is worse off. Marner will be great unless he gets hit by a bus or something.

 

[thewave]

You are making a false equivalency.

Aho and Marner are not the same player.

Marner has 28 more career points and never finished under 60. Marner is the 4th overall pick and Aho is a 2nd rounder. While there are 28 points that separate them now, there’s much more than that.

I think you need to dial back your inner Paul a little. Aho is a C and scores more goals.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Strawman argument

How is it a strawman argument?

If Marner is worth double digits, then so is Aho.

Aho just signed for 8.5x5... and it took an offer sheet for that to even happen.

 

[Heisen]

With Aho finally matched officially, maybe Montreal attacks here with something dumb.

Marner to Montreal, Carey Price career ending injury in October. Bam. Amazing draft picks.

 

[Nooodles]

I beg to differ.

Well, this is your job, troll.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You are making a false equivalency.

Aho and Marner are not the same player.

Marner has 28 more career points and never finished under 60. Marner is the 4th overall pick and Aho is a 2nd rounder. While there are 28 points that separate them now, there’s much more than that.

Oh, total elc points are now the determining factor for Marner vs Aho?

Ok. Let's look at Matthews points, and compare him to players that signed the same cap percentage. Oh, let me guess.... with Matthews it won't be just about points... right?

Which round you're drafted in matters? Ok. Why was 24 year old seventh rounder Johnsson paid a very similar contract as first round pick 21 year old Kapanen, after pretty much identical rookie years?

We cant't just keep changing the metrics for how players get paid. There NEEDS to be consistency.

Aho is a center who scores more goals while playing with way worse line mates than Marner. That balances out Marner getting more points and less PP time.

It's VERY debatable who deserves the bigger contract.

Aho signed for 8.5x5

 

[Sonofamitch]

That's sketchy though. Your 6 million dollar defender can regress and be a boat anchor in a hurry, and now you've traded a great player for an ok winger and an albatross, and your cap is worse off. Marner will be great unless he gets hit by a bus or something.

It’d be for a young players though. I’m not suggesting getting a 30 year old who’s prime years are behind them.

I’d look at players like Dumba, Pesce, LindHolm, Hanafin.

Then add in a top 6 winger to the package or a good prospect and a 1st.

 

[Notsince67]

How is it a strawman argument?

If Marner is worth double digits, then so is Aho.

Aho just signed for 8.5x5... and it took an offer sheet for that to even happen.

Because you just said so...right?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Because you just said so...right?

What, they're not comparable because YOU said so?

That's how it works?

Again, Aho plays center and scores more goals with far worse linemates. Marner gets more points (playing with TAVARES) with less pp time. Pretty much balances out.