Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[Superstar]

What about Marner for McDavid with a sweetener our way

Draisaitl because Marner is so awesome...

 

[Nineteen67]

I don't think it's gonna go that long.

I suspect it’ll be done this week.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Doesn't Montreal have all of the same problems? Aho (VERY similar elc numbers to Marner) agreed to 8.5x5 to go to Montreal. And it's not even his home town.

So what the hell?

No. Quebec is even worse than Ontario

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Knowing full well it was going to be matched. Point told them thanks, but no thanks.

Nope. I don't accept that response. He didn't know full well they would match. The contract was designed in a way that would specifically make it difficult for Carolina to match.

He signed that contract with Montreal. A team that has all the same "disadvantages" that Toronto has. He had very similar stats to Marner. 8.5x5

 

[socko]

Knowing full well it was going to be matched. Point told them thanks, but no thanks.

Poor Aho, he was so close to getting away from that Storm Surge thing. I mean if you have to dress us like Bozo the Clown to get fans to show up maybe it's time to move the team?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

To the contrary, I think he has a lot of value even at that caphit/term to a team that is not in cap trouble like the Leafs. They could even offer higher AAV on a 8 y term (trade and sign), which is not something Toronto can/wants to do for obvious reasons.

We'll see what happens, but the few rumored teams (NJ, MTL, NYI) look like good fits with quality prospects/roster players/picks players they could package for someone they might consider franchise-player talent. Sucks they are in the same conference, but its not unheard of.

Any team that has a lot of cap space almost certainly has a lot of young talent soon to be looking for new contracts.
Those players will use the dramatic overpayment of Marner as leverage, destroying that teams internal cap structure.

Marner at fair market value obviously has huge trade value. But a heavily overpaid Marner doesn't.

 

[Superstar]

11.6 is with Toronto. He would likely accept 1.5 to 2 million less in a different market.

And take a further hit on lack of endorsements? No, he won't.

 

[Mess]

If that is the hill he's going to die on then goodbye Mitch. When his ass is traded out of town maybe his new team will care what Matthews makes.

Newsflash - they won't.

That is why we hear all this offersheet chatter because that is the only way Marner can expect to get his Matthews like contract.

Leafs shouldn't give it to him, and another team he would be traded to wouldn't also be tied to Leafs internal salary structure either.

Offersheet compensation levels not actual player comparables of any sort, are what would land Marner is asking price from another team. He is seeking an OS > $10.56 mil to sign which puts him in AM and JT price range. That poaching team that would give him one is not concerned about player comparables either only compensation levels required and what #$$ Leafs won't match at.

Offer Sheet Compensation Thresholds
$8,454,872 to $10,568,589: Two first-round picks plus second and third-round picks
$10,568,590 and over: Four first-round picks

 

[nuck]

Why would he take less money to move away from his hometown team who he grew up as a die hard fan of?

So players no longer accept a hometown discount, they demand a hometown premium? What on earth is happening?

His nights are sleepless knowing he may earn less than Matthews. In another city the pain of raking in a meager $9.5M - $10M may be softened by the distance. Also he gets away from his dad

 

[TheProspector]

Still no offer-sheet. Huh.

 

[TheProspector]

I'm starting to think that Ferris is full of shit, guys.

 

[Suntouchable13]

11.6 is with Toronto. He would likely accept 1.5 to 2 million less in a different market.

No, I doubt it. Toronto is his 1st choice. Toronto is not a bad place to be.

 

[Marshy]

Marner only wants an offersheet the Leafs will match. Teams tendering an OS want to make it prohibitive that the Leafs would match (or else it just unnecessarily raises the RFA pay scale for everyone including offering team).

There's the rub. When Dubas said the Leafs don't necessarily match - GAME OVER PAUL AND DARREN!

No more leverage.

 

[Notsince67]

who wants to pay 11M for a guy who has a career high of 26 goals. It just seems like this will end up in a bridge deal.

Curious. If he averages 100 points with 35 goals over the next 2 years, what do you resign him with in todays money?

 

[Gallagbi]

Yes. And that’s why I like draft picks.

However, that’s not really the issue in this thread as far as I can tell.

Wasn't an issue with the thread, was with your post though. Nice to see it was just an oversight on your part, looks like a few others noticed as well.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The thing is... you are pulling a single example and using it as the baseline for everything.

Many data points make up an average.

Kane’s 10.5M deal in 2015. Matthews’ 11.6M deal in 2019. Etc. Etc.

Mitch is worth a double digit deal.

If Mitch is worth a double digit deal, then so is Aho. Why didn't any team offer Aho double digits on an offer sheet then?

 

[IPS]

If Mitch is worth a double digit deal, then so is Aho. Why didn't any team offer Aho double digits on an offer sheet then?

I think Mitch is at most worth maybe 800K-$1M more than Aho.

Still under a double digit deal.

 

[Suntouchable13]

No hometown discounts for Toronto. The city, the taxes and headaches are not worth it when there are better options.

What's wrong with the city? Give me a break, this is a great city. I don't see what so worse about it than NYC or Boston or Chicago or any other big North American city.

 

[WTFMAN99]

What's wrong with the city? Give me a break, this is a great city. I don't see what so worse about it than NYC or Boston or Chicago or any other big North American city.

If you're a local kid or decide to spend your entire career here (like if Matthews re-ups for 8 yrs after the 5)- USD in Canada goes all that much further here.

 

[Pookie]

If Mitch is worth a double digit deal, then so is Aho. Why didn't any team offer Aho double digits on an offer sheet then?

Why haven’t there been more than a handful of offer sheets over the last decade?

The absence of an offer sheet doesn’t establish a market value.

The Habs are trying to do something for their fan base. Never discount the idea of a PR move.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I think Mitch is at most worth maybe 800K-$1M more than Aho.

Still under a double digit deal.

I think that’s debatable who is worth more.

Advantage Aho:
A centre
Scores more goals
Doesn’t play with Tavares (or anyone close)

Advantage Marner:
Scores more points
Better 5v5 stats
Less pp time

I think those are pretty bloody close to balancing out.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Why haven’t there been more than a handful of offer sheets over the last decade?

The absence of an offer sheet doesn’t establish a market value.

The Habs are trying to do something for their fan base. Never discount the idea of a PR move.

If (according to you) Aho is worth “double digits”, then why would he sign a 8.5x5 offer sheet?

 

[CelticDruid]

See what I mean.

Why would Columbus do that deal. arguably the best young up and coming Defense man in the game today.

So Columbus gets marner. Scores 100 points but lose every game
7-6 because they can’t keep the puck out of the net,

Go back and look at free agency over the last years. How. Many true number 1 dman have made it to free agency.when teams have that true number 1 they sign them.

There are more elite wingers to be had in free agency than number 1 dman.

I’m surprised I haven’t seen a marner for mcdavid trade

Can McDavid play defense?

 

[Mess]

Marner only wants an offersheet the Leafs will match. Teams tendering an OS want to make it prohibitive that the Leafs would match (or else it just unnecessarily raises the RFA pay scale for everyone including offering team).

There's the rub. When Dubas said the Leafs don't necessarily match - GAME OVER PAUL AND DARREN!

No more leverage.

When Dubas said he wouldn't necessarily match an OS, doesn't that incentify other teams to consider an OS because now there is a chance they could get Marner at the right price point?

When most GMs firmly say "we will match any and all OS submitted" then what use is it for another team to even try as it would be a waste of their time?. No OS = no player leverage.

So Dubas might have increased the odds he will be facing an offersheet challenge, and then if he matches it, he is basically bidding against himself in essence by driving up Marner's contract to OS levels at rate of pay higher than he was willing to commit himself.

Basically Dubas is saying he refuses to give Marner a $10.5 mil X 5 deal, but if he successfully gets one he will then gladly match to keep him. If its even more $$ than that, then he might walk away.

This is almost a play a GM would make if its the compensation picks that are your end game agenda to help resolve this contract stalemate.

 

[Menzinger]

I think Mitch is at most worth maybe 800K-$1M more than Aho.

Still under a double digit deal.

A deal around 9 2-9.8 should be a no brainier. Frustrating it hasnt happened yet