Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[ShaneFalco]

They have one guy to sign and can’t seem to get it done.

That's on the Marner camp for being ridiculous

 

[MyBudJT]

How many superstars do you pay?

And say Nylander puts up 65 points at 7 mil, Kap/AJ put up 45 points at 3 mil and Barrie puts up 60 points (RHD), who do you keep?

You keep as many superstars as you can

If Nylander only reaches 65 points, he's an easy goner.
Kap/AJ/Kerfoot are all easy gonerrs if need be (can replace most of their production for cheap)
Barrie you can try and keep, but don't give absurd amounts.

2019-20
Lets say you have 48M to spend after JT/MM/AM are lockd up. This number will only increase with an increased cap too. But for now, you can do this:

#4F 7M
#5F 3.5M
#6F 3.2M
#7-13 F: 8M combined.
-------------------------
21.7M

#1D 5M
#2D 2.75M
#3D 4M
#4D 4.5M
#5-8D 3.5M combined
--------------------------
19.75M

#1G 5M
#2G 0.75M
--------------------------
5.75M

TOTAL: 47.25


2020-21
Lets say you have 50M to spend after JT/MM/AM are lockd up:

#4F 5.5M
#5F 3.5M
#6F 3M
#7-13 F: 9M combined.
-------------------------
21M

#1D 7.5M
#2D 5M
#3D 4M
#4D 2.5M
#5-8D 4M combined
--------------------------
23M

#1G 5M
#2G 1M
--------------------------
6M

 

[Nineteen67]

That's on the Marner camp for being ridiculous

Yep

 

[Nooodles]

At this point, yes.

K

 

[TheBigFour]

who wants to pay 11M for a guy who has a career high of 26 goals. It just seems like this will end up in a bridge deal.

 

[Michoulicious]

I really think if Marner wants something over the 10.5 x 5 y and Dubas feels they won't be able to change his mind, I think the Leafs should explore the trade option instead of just not matching an OS and getting the 4 firsts. Getting a cheaper, excellent replacement roster player and quality prospects closer to make an impact would be a better fit to help the team contend this year and the next. They could also use some of that saved cap space to extend one of the veterans Ds past this season (Muzzin, Barrie).

Would be the smarter thing to do.

 

[Bluelines]

Except Marner >> Vanek.

Hindsight is 20/20, at the time Vanek was considered the best shooter in the game. Vanek's first 3 seasons, he had over a 15% sh% success rate. Over his career he is above 14%. Mitch has never been above 11.3% in any season. Vanek has had only one season with lower Sh% than Mitch's best season.

Don't take me wrong, Mitch is a phenomenal talent but if you covet goals over assists Vanek is clearly the better player. If you covet assists, clearly Mitch is the better player. Mitch also PK's which (goal suppression) in my book is almost as important as driving offence.

I don't think it's as easy as making a blanket statement.

 

[Doug Gilmour]

1. these contract threads are all the same , people *****ing non stop then snapping there spines doing a 180 when the deal is announced to suck the nuts of Leaf mgmt
   
   Willie isn't worth a dollar more than Ellers 7 x 6 m , Willie signs for 6 x 7m , majority of the posters bashing him for not taking Ellers deal are now saying is a fair market value deal
   
   Mathews should get around 11m x 8 yrs based off McD's contract , Mathews signs for 11.6m x 5 yrs , people praise the Dube for holding the line and saying it's a great deal because 8 yrs would have cost 13.5-14m per

• Mitch isn't worth 9m based off Aho's deal never mind 10 figures because he's a winger , hasn't cracked 30 goals and was carried by JT , MM then signs for 10 figures and the GM fan club invent excuses , um reasons why it's a cheap team friendly deal
  
  can't wait for the new round of crap from the true fans after he signs how Aho and every other player isn't a comparable and MM's value sky rockets after the deal is announced lol​

I don’t know how some fans are still rationalizing these insane AAV numbers that Dubas is handing out and expecting that we’ll be fine next offseason when Barrie, Muzzin and Dermott are due raises.

4.5M from Ceci walking is not enough to cover the raises to Barrie and Muzzin next offseason.

 

[TML1967]

Well... there are things called data points that would lend themselves to a rational argument.

Same number of games played in their career... 28 more points for Mitch. Regular season is one thing... playoffs?

Mitch edges him there too.

Ok, 28 more points over the first 3 years is fair. That works out to 9.3 points per season. Aho is slightly younger (were talking like 100 days), so age is essentially the same.
Over those 3 years, Marner has been on teams that have scored wayyy more, partly because of him and party because of better linemates and facing inferior defenders since Aho does have a Matthew's to have opposing teams worry about.
Higher % of Mitchs points came on the PP

Hockey reference (great stats site) has them at 94.5% overal similarity so far in their careers.

If I could chose, I'd take Marner obviously. Home town kid, loves the game and plays well.

But ya cant be paying him 25% (10.6m+) more for arguably less than 5% better a player.

 

[Cotton]

So Matthews will be the first player winning the cup at the age of 74?

Did you know that something like your last 40 posts are all trashing the Leafs in one way or another. That's kind of amazing.

 

[TML1967]

Solid reasoning but that is the bottom up approach.

Marner is using the top down method where Matthews makes $11.634 mil x 5.

10.5m is 10.8% less than Matthews.
10m is 16% less.
9.5m is 22% less.

IMO there is no rational argument in Marner's mind to say he is 22% worse, or less valuable than Matthews.

So even if Leafs game him $9.5 mil = +$1 mil more than Aho, that is still about only 3/4 (or 75%) salary of what the Leafs just gave Matthews a few months back..

Therein lies the problem !!

Dont disagree.
I'm gonna assume Leafs approach is he is a winger, and is compared to all other wingers.
P. Kane, Stone, Ovie, Kutcherov when it comes to comps.

I still think the Leafs are waiting for a Laine/Tkachuk/Connor to sign 1st, and those guys are waiting for Mitch. That's probably where the real stalemate is, everyone is waiting for a comparable that they think will make their offer look more reasonable except Mitchs camp. Because he is trying to use the media to pump his value, and is the only player who's camp talked about doing an offer sheet tour through the media.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It's not at all.

If Mitch signs after October 2nd his cap hit this upcoming season is calculated the exact same way as Nylander's was in his first year of his contract.

Unlike most other contracts, Nylander’s cap hit isn’t calculated by simply dividing the total dollar amount ($45 million) by the number of years (6). Because it was signed in-season, his cap hit will actually be much higher in year 1, saving the Leafs money in future years when they really need it.​

The way capfriendly lists the contract is complicated and it's confused many people, including the writers of that article. If Marner signs later than Oct 2nd, his actual real cap hit would be the same season 1 as any other season.

If you look at the leafs 2018/19 season cap hits, broken down player by player, it lists Nylanders accumulated cap hit as 6.96.
Toronto Maple Leafs Daily Cap Tracker - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Capfriendly also made this tweet clarifying that the 10.2 cap hit prorates to 6.96 by the end of the season.


And here is a reddit thread that entirely clarifies the situation.
www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/c6avme/clarification_on_prorated_salary_cap_hits_on/

 

[egd27]

We got Barrie at a reduced rate in order to balance salaries. Next year he will command $4+M. Muzzin will command an additional $1-$1.5M. No way you can keep Ceci and Andy's day will be numbered sooner than later. Can you win with a budget of $2+M for your goalies ?? Yes for a year or two, if Woll or Scott can do a Binnington.

Barrie will be looking for a raise based off his current $5.5M cap hit, not off the $2.75M the Leafs are paying.

Next year, he'll be looking in the $6.5 - 7M range at a minimum, not $4+M.

 

[Pookie]

You can trade them

Yes. And that’s why I like draft picks.

However, that’s not really the issue in this thread as far as I can tell.

The issue is IF he gets an offer sheet.. do the Leafs match?

The Leafs have to have a number they are comfortable with and despite the sentiment in this thread it’s probably a double digit number shy of Matthews.

A 90 point winger has a number.

This isn’t a ... Mitch we’ll pay you up to 8.5m and not a penny more scenario. This isn’t about trying to get a discount.

Any offer sheet in their range of numbers will get matched which means an offer sheet in that range is unlikely.

And this isn’t about taking picks over Mitch.

There has to be an offer sheet in the ridiculous range for that to even be a possibility.

So yes. On the off chance a ridiculous offer comes in... take the picks.

Most likely there isn’t an offer that they won’t match.

 

[nuck]

I really think if Marner wants something over the 10.5 x 5 y and Dubas feels they won't be able to change his mind, I think the Leafs should explore the trade option instead of just not matching an OS and getting the 4 firsts. Getting a cheaper, excellent replacement roster player and quality prospects closer to make an impact would be a better fit to help the team contend this year and the next. They could also use some of that saved cap space to extend one of the veterans Ds past this season (Muzzin, Barrie).

Would be the smarter thing to do.

Considering they would only be using the 1sts to convert into useful players, you are probably right. There are only a few teams in the league that would meet Marner's demands though, whereas everybody has picks so the OS is still more likely. But even trading for the 4 picks gives the other team a shot at signing Marner for the "Mitch" number rather than it also being a number which will be too high for the Leafs to want to match. I wonder if they are talking to other clubs yet.

 

[REM17]

Did you know that something like your last 40 posts are all trashing the Leafs in one way or another. That's kind of amazing.

Yeah, you know the Leafs are always good for a laugh, i am quite thankful for this sitcom for the last 50 years... And the next 50 as well.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Except Marner >> Vanek.

You're saying that only based on hindsight of how Vanek played after signing that contract.

Vanek was coming off of a sophomore season where he scored 43 goals/84 points. If he was a leaf, people here would be saying "and he's only 22. Imagine how great he'll be in a few years." Well... actually, his 22 year old season was BY FAR the best of his career.

The Vanek offer sheet, more than anything else, supports the argument that the leafs should let Marner walk if he gets such an offer. Those picks turned into Gagner, Eberle, Paajarvi, and Hall. All for a heavily overpaid 30 goal/60 point guy.

 

[Mess]

I really think if Marner wants something over the 10.5 x 5 y and Dubas feels they won't be able to change his mind, I think the Leafs should explore the trade option instead of just not matching an OS and getting the 4 firsts. Getting a cheaper, excellent replacement roster player and quality prospects closer to make an impact would be a better fit to help the team contend this year and the next. They could also use some of that saved cap space to extend one of the veterans Ds past this season (Muzzin, Barrie).

Would be the smarter thing to do.

Like say dealing Marner + Ceci to NJ for Taylor Hall ($6 mil) and RHD Damon Severson ($4.16 mil X 3 more years) and then extending Hall for the $10.5 X 5 years instead.

How would a Tavares -- Hall pairing look and produce and a top 4 D of Rielly, Muzzin, Barrie and Severson?

The 4 X future 1st round picks and comps really doesn't help the Leafs in their current 5 year compete window, unless you deal those picks as currency to help you win now.. Trading Marner for those players straight up removes the middle man..

PS. Remember Hall had 2017-18 season 76 games 39 goals 54 assists 93 points (before last years injury's wiped out his 2018-19 season).

 

[MyBudJT]

You're saying that only based on hindsight of how Vanek played after signing that contract.

Vanek was coming off of a sophomore season where he scored 43 goals/84 points. If he was a leaf, people here would be saying "and he's only 22. Imagine how great he'll be in a few years." Well... actually, his 22 year old season was BY FAR the best of his career.

The Vanek offer sheet, more than anything else, supports the argument that the leafs should let Marner walk if he gets such an offer. Those picks turned into Gagner, Eberle, Paajarvi, and Hall. All for a heavily overpaid 30 goal/60 point guy.

This isn't all correct. Vanek's 43G season was his U23 sesaon. This was Marner's U22 season. Also, Marner scored 10 more points while playing a more defensively sound game.

U22 Marner > U23 Vanek.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

This isn't all correct. Vanek's 43G season was his U23 sesaon. This was Marner's U22 season. Also, Marner scored 10 more points while playing a more defensively sound game.

U22 Marner > U23 Vanek.

The post I was responding to claimed Marner is better than Vanek.

But that's based on hindsight.
I'm just comparing Vanek's final elc year to Marner's (the moment post elc contracts had to be signed). While Marner got 9 more points, Vanek scored 43 goals compared to Marner's 26.

So looking at the leafs position now and comparing it to Buffalo's position in 2007, it's unclear who is the better player (although it's hard not to go with Vanek based on those stats).

 

[Notsince67]

What about Marner for McDavid with a sweetener our way

Would Matthews be the better center as the better goal scorer?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I really think if Marner wants something over the 10.5 x 5 y and Dubas feels they won't be able to change his mind, I think the Leafs should explore the trade option instead of just not matching an OS and getting the 4 firsts. Getting a cheaper, excellent replacement roster player and quality prospects closer to make an impact would be a better fit to help the team contend this year and the next. They could also use some of that saved cap space to extend one of the veterans Ds past this season (Muzzin, Barrie).

Would be the smarter thing to do.

A team wouldn't trade for Marner without inquiring about his contract demands first. A Marner who won't budge from 11.6x5 would have very little trade value.

 

[jfc64]

Seven or eight digits. Nine are too many and six is what they might make when they first get here. Five if you're forced to go by bus.

 

[MyBudJT]

The post I was responding to claimed Marner is better than Vanek.

But that's based on hindsight.
I'm just comparing Vanek's final elc year to Marner's (the moment post elc contracts had to be signed). While Marner got 9 more points, Vanek scored 43 goals compared to Marner's 26.

So looking at the leafs position now and comparing it to Buffalo's position in 2007, it's unclear who is the better player (although it's hard not to go with Vanek based on those stats).

Since when is 94-84 = 9?

 

[Kiwi]

False BoBo.

Tomas Vanek signed for 7 x 14.2% after his ELC which would be equivalent to 11.573 in Today’s NHL...

So Marner wouldn’t be the first winger post-aELC to get paid in the 11 tier.

The worst offersheet in NHL history you mean? I'm sure they were thrilled they matched that baby