Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[MyBudJT]

I completely agree. Just saying, can you imagine those 4 years of picks not going to Edmonton ?

I agree it was a position where Buffalo shouldn’t have matched. I think it would be different with MARner and you should probably match him at 11.5. Anything over 12 and you really consider the picks, though.

 

[ToneDog]

I agree it was a position where Buffalo shouldn’t have matched. I think it would be different with MARner and you should probably match him at 11.5. Anything over 12 and you really consider the picks, though.

So Marner is $3M > Aho? Even if he were, it is suicide to pay 3 players $11+ per year. IMO and many others on this board, you only match if compensation is less than 4 firsts.

 

[hullsy47]

So Marner is $3M > Aho? Even if he were, it is suicide to pay 3 players $11+ per year. IMO and many others on this board, you only match if compensation is less than 4 firsts.

I concur

 

[MyBudJT]

So Marner is $3M > Aho? Even if he were, it is suicide to pay 3 players $11+ per year. IMO and many others on this board, you only match if compensation is less than 4 firsts.

You don't lose a superstar because of cap issues. You make it work, there are many ways you can make it work.

 

[ToneDog]

You don't lose a superstar because of cap issues. You make it work, there are many ways you can make it work.

You will be in cap hell for the next 5 years unless the cap explodes soon.

 

[MyBudJT]

You will be in cap hell for the next 5 years unless the cap explodes soon.

No, not at all. 48M to fill out the remaining cap space (20 roster spots) is plenty.

 

[ToneDog]

No, not at all. 48M to fill out the remaining cap space (20 roster spots) is plenty.

Sure until you have to start paying Rielly, Barrie, Muzzin, Andy, Ceci etc. unless you want Dubas to juggle the lineup year in and year out as the Hawks have had to do for years. The difference is they paid their stars after they won something.

As things stand now, one of the big 3 should be moved.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Sure until you have to start paying Rielly, Barrie, Muzzin, Andy, Ceci etc. unless you want Dubas to juggle the lineup year in and year out as the Hawks have had to do for years. The difference is they paid their stars after they won something.

As things stand now, one of the big 3 should be moved.

4.5M / 2

Take those amounts, add to Muzzin and Barrie, you've kept them

We're likely going to be keeping Rielly and move on from Andersen when his contract is up. The hope is Woll can be as good as Andersen.

Hyman will likely price himself out of a new contract unless he takes a discount or takes term over $.

 

[MyBudJT]

Sure until you have to start paying Rielly, Barrie, Muzzin, Andy, Ceci etc. unless you want Dubas to juggle the lineup year in and year out as the Hawks have had to do for years. The difference is they paid their stars after they won something.

As things stand now, one of the big 3 should be moved.

You don't lose a superstar for the likes of Barrie, Muzzin, Ceci, etc. Its a rather silly and weak notion IMO.

 

[Mess]

His team by using the media and selectively leaking info for the last few months have really changed people opinion of what a good deal would be.

Aho got 8.5 x 5, he has better line driving numbers, is a C, scores more, had worse linemates to accomplish all of this, but had less points and is less dynamic.

9.5m is 10.5% more than Aho.
10m is 15% more.
10.5m is 19% more.

Imo there is no rational argument in my mind to say Marner is 19% better, or more valuable than Aho.

Solid reasoning but that is the bottom up approach.

Marner is using the top down method where Matthews makes $11.634 mil x 5.

10.5m is 10.8% less than Matthews.
10m is 16% less.
9.5m is 22% less.

IMO there is no rational argument in Marner's mind to say he is 22% worse, or less valuable than Matthews.

So even if Leafs game him $9.5 mil = +$1 mil more than Aho, that is still about only 3/4 (or 75%) salary of what the Leafs just gave Matthews a few months back..

Therein lies the problem !!

 

[ToneDog]

4.5M / 2

Take those amounts, add to Muzzin and Barrie, you've kept them

We're likely going to be keeping Rielly and move on from Andersen when his contract is up. The hope is Woll can be as good as Andersen.

Hyman will likely price himself out of a new contract unless he takes a discount or takes term over $.

We got Barrie at a reduced rate in order to balance salaries. Next year he will command $4+M. Muzzin will command an additional $1-$1.5M. No way you can keep Ceci and Andy's day will be numbered sooner than later. Can you win with a budget of $2+M for your goalies ?? Yes for a year or two, if Woll or Scott can do a Binnington.

 

[Heisen]

And we circle back to the core issue. Matthews needs to be traded.

 

[hotpaws]

1. these contract threads are all the same , people *****ing non stop then snapping there spines doing a 180 when the deal is announced to suck the nuts of Leaf mgmt
   
   Willie isn't worth a dollar more than Ellers 7 x 6 m , Willie signs for 6 x 7m , majority of the posters bashing him for not taking Ellers deal are now saying is a fair market value deal
   
   Mathews should get around 11m x 8 yrs based off McD's contract , Mathews signs for 11.6m x 5 yrs , people praise the Dube for holding the line and saying it's a great deal because 8 yrs would have cost 13.5-14m per
2. 
   
3. Mitch isn't worth 9m based off Aho's deal , never mind 10 figures because he's a winger , hasn't cracked 30 goals and was carried by JT . MM then signs for 10 figures and the GM fan club invent excuses um reasons why it's a cheap team friendly deal

• 
  can't wait for the new round of crap from the true fans after he signs about how Aho and any other player isn't a comparable and how much MM's value sky rockets after the deal is announced lol​

 

[Nineteen67]

This really quite comical at this point.

 

[Mess]

And we circle back to the core issue. Matthews needs to be traded.

Or if the GM knew what he was doing, Marner needed to be signed first before Matthews, to remove that Leafs internal cap ceiling from Marner's leverage.

Without it, Marner would be working from the Nylander up contract which is $7.5 mil X 6 (without the delayed signing). Comparibles: Willy (62 +62 points last 2 seasons) Marner (62 + 69 points last 2 seasons).

If Dubas says we'll give you +$2 mil more than Willy, with about similar comparable numbers (before the season) but on a 8 year term. You get Marner for $9.5 mil X 8 last summer and problem solved.

Timing in everything!

Now Marner 94 points - Matthews 73 points = +21 points differential last year.

Only an inexperienced GM would sign his most expensive player contract 1st and then attempt to tell his teams leading scorer that he is worth only $9.5 mil or over $2 mil less per season, despite recording >20 points more. Even if you factor in Matthews injury his 1.07 PPG x 82 games = 88 points on full season, Marner still has a solid case for equal pay for equal play.

 

[WTFMAN99]

We got Barrie at a reduced rate in order to balance salaries. Next year he will command $4+M. Muzzin will command an additional $1-$1.5M. No way you can keep Ceci and Andy's day will be numbered sooner than later. Can you win with a budget of $2+M for your goalies ?? Yes for a year or two, if Woll or Scott can do a Binnington.

Yep.

Take Ceci's 4.5M divide it by 2, it should cover off the raises for Barrie and Muzzin. Key on Muzzin is to try to get 3-4 years, overpay if you need to but don't block Sandin any longer then that. Ceci will definitely walk.

Cap should conservatively go up by 2M in the next off-season.

Hyman will likely have to walk. Rielly will be re-upped. Big hope for Woll to be ready in 2 years.

Next year I think the year after this

Rielly-Dermott (or another RD)
Muzzin-Barrie
Sandin-Liljegren
X

Things change in a hurry though so who even knows.

 

[Trapper]

You don't lose a superstar for the likes of Barrie, Muzzin, Ceci, etc. Its a rather silly and weak notion IMO.

How many superstars do you pay?
Do you think Toronto/Tampa would like superstar Panarin? Why didn’t we sign a free superstar as well?

And say Nylander puts up 65 points at 7 mil, Kap/AJ put up 45 points at 3 mil and Barrie puts up 60 points (RHD), who do you keep?

 

[Joey Hoser]

This really quite comical at this point.

What is?

 

[Nineteen67]

What is?

They have one guy to sign and can’t seem to get it done.

 

[REM17]

If we fast forward to an imaginary Stanley Cup celebration a couple of years down the line, I have an easier time thinking it's because Auston Matthews realized his full potential as that big Crosby Malkin hybrid franchise center than Mitch Marner scoring 100 points more or less playing the kind of game he's playing today.

Keep in mind Marner's 94 points came on the wing of John Tavares. I'm not going to say Marner's a creation of Tavares because the eye test tells you Marner was the straw that stirs that line. But at the same time, it's not like we gave Auston Matthews the wing equivalent of John Tavares to play with either. Kapanen and Johnsson combined make half as much as Tavares.

So Matthews will be the first player winning the cup at the age of 74?

 

[Heisen]

A little insight in to who we are dealing with here.

Was standing in line at a fair grabbing some cotton candy for my kid, and Mitch was there in line for himself. Someone dropped some change out of their pocket, and Mitch shot out of line and wrestled with the guy for it.

 

[Nooodles]

They have one guy to sign and can’t seem to get it done.

Because it's that easy, right?

 

[Gallagbi]

It takes 4 years to use them all. Maybe 5-6 before all 4 are in the line up.

It's not like you take all 4 next year.

By that time... Tavares is +33. Rielly is +30. Andersen is +35.

You can trade them

 

[crump]

A little insight in to who we are dealing with here.

Was standing in line at a fair grabbing some cotton candy for my kid, and Mitch was there in line for himself. Someone dropped some change out of their pocket, and Mitch shot out of line and wrestled with the guy for it.

 

[Nineteen67]

Because it's that easy, right?

At this point, yes.