Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[Cor]

You really gotta stretch logic to think Marner is worth 11M+

10.5M is the max and that's on a 7 or 8 year deal.


I'm happy that is the stance the Leafs are reportedly taking, because that is 100% correct.

 

[Nineteen67]

K

They only have so much cap space and they’ll slot him or he has to move. Not difficult on the Leafs part once the heavy lifting was done.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The worst offersheet in NHL history you mean? I'm sure they were thrilled they matched that baby

To be fair to mybudjt, he was responding to someone who said that no post elc winger had ever signed for such a cap percentage. He showed that there is in fact one example.

But yeah, Vanek signed a HORRIBLE contract and Buffalo shouldn't have matched. I hope people don't start using it as a rationalization for Marner's contract...

 

[nuck]

I completely agree. Just saying, can you imagine those 4 years of picks not going to Edmonton ?

And the year before the OS, at age 22, was the best of Vanek's career with 43 goals and a league leading +47. Then his star center goes to Philly and he never matched 43 goals again because he really wasn't all that by himself. Imagine a talented winger peaking at such a young age and a team getting sucked into paying him like a superstar for 7 years. Sabres should have taken the picks but they were a 50 win team and thought they needed to keep the gang together for those multiple cup runs. Hmm.

Oilers probably don't serve up the two #1 picks but the Sabres could have had guys like Scheifele and Tarasenko.

 

[Mess]

Dont disagree.
I'm gonna assume Leafs approach is he is a winger, and is compared to all other wingers.
P. Kane, Stone, Ovie, Kutcherov when it comes to comps..

Mitch is using his own teammates and internal comparables not external comparables.

2018-19 figures
Matthews @ $11.634 produced at a 1.07 PPG rate 73 points in 68 games [=88 points in 82 games]
Tavares @ $11 mil produced at a 1.07 PPG rate [88 points in 82 games]
vs
Marner who produced at 1.15 PPG rate [94 points in 82 games]

Marner's case "Equal pay for equal play", using the same consistent data set parameters for all [Leafs team results vs Leafs team pay structure]

So if your 1.07 PPG rate centres on your own team make $11 mil or more, than how much should a 1.15 PPG rate winger make if you adjust for position and goals vs assists?

If using $9.5 mil X 8 [Kucherov & Stone recent deals] as external comparables that makes it - 22.46% less than Matthews, and -15.8 % less than Tavares. [without any $$ adjustment for full 8 year term deals as comparables].

 

[ToneDog]

Barrie will be looking for a raise based off his current $5.5M cap hit, not off the $2.75M the Leafs are paying.

Next year, he'll be looking in the $6.5 - 7M range at a minimum, not $4+M.

I may not have been clear but the $4+M I referred to was raise.

 

[Nineteen67]

A team wouldn't trade for Marner without inquiring about his contract demands first. A Marner who won't budge from 11.6x5 would have very little trade value.

11.6 is with Toronto. He would likely accept 1.5 to 2 million less in a different market.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Mitch is using his own teammates and internal comparables not external comparables.

2018-19 figures
Matthews @ $11.634 produced at a 1.07 PPG rate 73 points in 68 games [=88 points in 82 games]
Tavares @ $11 mil produced at a 1.07 PPG rate [88 points in 82 games]
vs
Marner who produced at 1.15 PPG rate [94 points in 82 games]

Marner's case "Equal pay for equal play", using the same consistent data set parameters for all [Leafs team results vs Leafs team pay structure]

So if your 1.07 PPG rate centres on your own team make $11 mil or more, than how much should a 1.15 PPG rate winger make if you adjust for position and goals vs assists?

If using $9.5 mil X 8 [Kucherov & Stone recent deals] as external comparables that makes it - 22.46% less than Matthews, and -15.8 % less than Tavares. [without any $$ adjustment for full 8 year term deals as comparables].

Why aren't goals considered part of the equation?

In the Matthews contract threads, his contract was rationalized based on his goals, not points. So now we're going to compare Marner's points to Matthews and say he's worth the same contract? A contract that was rationalized based on goals?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Sign him to a 3 year bridge and bring him to arbitration if there is no other choice.

In arbitration they wont accept centers as comparables or anything crazy like is being used now

 

[Throw More Waffles]

11.6 is with Toronto. He would likely accept 1.5 to 2 million less in a different market.

Why would he take less money to move away from his hometown team who he grew up as a die hard fan of?

So players no longer accept a hometown discount, they demand a hometown premium? What on earth is happening?

 

[57 Years No Cup]

This really quite comical at this point.

Sure is. And the best part is it's JULY and the teenage angst in here is over the top. Imagine if Mitch actually HOLDS OUT for part of the regular season like Willie did!

 

[Kiwi]

To be fair to mybudjt, he was responding to someone who said that no post elc winger had ever signed for such a cap percentage. He showed that there is in fact one example.

But yeah, Vanek signed a HORRIBLE contract and Buffalo shouldn't have matched. I hope people don't start using it as a rationalization for Marner's contract...

That was me, the fact there's one and that sucker was absolutely brutal still works in my favor I feel

And Vanek scored 43 goals in his offersheet year, God damn people's ideas of what "fair value" looks like on this contract have gotten way off track

 

[Nineteen67]

Why would he take less money to move away from his hometown team who he grew up as a die hard fan of?

So players no longer accept a hometown discount, they demand a hometown premium? What on earth is happening?

No hometown discounts for Toronto. The city, the taxes and headaches are not worth it when there are better options.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

A little insight in to who we are dealing with here.

Was standing in line at a fair grabbing some cotton candy for my kid, and Mitch was there in line for himself. Someone dropped some change out of their pocket, and Mitch shot out of line and wrestled with the guy for it.

What is Stuff That Didn't Happen for $500, Alex.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

No hometown discounts for Toronto. The city, the taxes and headaches are not worth it when there are better options.

Doesn't Montreal have all of the same problems? Aho (VERY similar elc numbers to Marner) agreed to 8.5x5 to go to Montreal. And it's not even his home town.

So what the hell?

 

[Nineteen67]

Sure is. And the best part is it's JULY and the teenage angst in here is over the top. Imagine if Mitch actually HOLDS OUT for part of the regular season like Willie did!

Could they even sign him in Dec.

 

[Nineteen67]

Doesn't Montreal have all of the same problems? Aho (VERY similar elc numbers to Marner) agreed to 8.5x5 to go to Montreal. And it's not even his home town.

So what the hell?

Montreal is on par with Toronto and Aho signed with Carolina.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Could they even sign him in Dec.

I don't think it's gonna go that long.

 

[Marshy]

Or if the GM knew what he was doing, Marner needed to be signed first before Matthews, to remove that Leafs internal cap ceiling from Marner's leverage.

Without it, Marner would be working from the Nylander up contract which is $7.5 mil X 6 (without the delayed signing). Comparibles: Willy (62 +62 points last 2 seasons) Marner (62 + 69 points last 2 seasons).

If Dubas says we'll give you +$2 mil more than Willy, with about similar comparable numbers (before the season) but on a 8 year term. You get Marner for $9.5 mil X 8 last summer and problem solved.

Timing in everything!

Now Marner 94 points - Matthews 73 points = +21 points differential last year.

Only an inexperienced GM would sign his most expensive player contract 1st and then attempt to tell his teams leading scorer that he is worth only $9.5 mil or over $2 mil less per season, despite recording >20 points more. Even if you factor in Matthews injury his 1.07 PPG x 82 games = 88 points on full season, Marner still has a solid case for equal pay for equal play.

If that is the hill he's going to die on then goodbye Mitch. When his ass is traded out of town maybe his new team will care what Matthews makes.

Newsflash - they won't.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Montreal is on par with Toronto and Aho signed with Carolina.

Aho signed his offer sheet with Montreal. That's specifically who he signed with. Carolina matched.

 

[Superstar]

Probably right. However the agents are acting like the TV windfall is an automatic. That's what is driving the crazy demands for big money on shorter contracts.

There are no guarantees...agents trying to use that reason to get more money are simply being greedy...I was listening to Ren Lavoie on sports radio a few weeks ago, and he said coming out of the last lock-out, the projection for the salary cap heading into this season is $90 million...we're at $81.5 million.

 

[Nineteen67]

Why wouldn’t Marner sign 10 million 4 years and then he’s first up at the UFA trough?

 

[Nineteen67]

Aho signed his offer sheet with Montreal. That's specifically who he signed with. Carolina matched.

Knowing full well it was going to be matched. Point told them thanks, but no thanks.

 

[Pookie]

Ok, 28 more points over the first 3 years is fair. That works out to 9.3 points per season. Aho is slightly younger (were talking like 100 days), so age is essentially the same.
Over those 3 years, Marner has been on teams that have scored wayyy more, partly because of him and party because of better linemates and facing inferior defenders since Aho does have a Matthew's to have opposing teams worry about.
Higher % of Mitchs points came on the PP

Hockey reference (great stats site) has them at 94.5% overal similarity so far in their careers.

If I could chose, I'd take Marner obviously. Home town kid, loves the game and plays well.

But ya cant be paying him 25% (10.6m+) more for arguably less than 5% better a player.

The thing is... you are pulling a single example and using it as the baseline for everything.

Many data points make up an average.

Kane’s 10.5M deal in 2015. Matthews’ 11.6M deal in 2019. Etc. Etc.

Mitch is worth a double digit deal.

 

[Michoulicious]

A team wouldn't trade for Marner without inquiring about his contract demands first. A Marner who won't budge from 11.6x5 would have very little trade value.

To the contrary, I think he has a lot of value even at that caphit/term to a team that is not in cap trouble like the Leafs. They could even offer higher AAV on a 8 y term (trade and sign), which is not something Toronto can/wants to do for obvious reasons.

We'll see what happens, but the few rumored teams (NJ, MTL, NYI) look like good fits with quality prospects/roster players/picks players they could package for someone they might consider franchise-player talent. Sucks they are in the same conference, but its not unheard of.