Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[Bomber0104]

Oh he does end up signing for big coin and if he doesn’t produce ...... there have been stretches he’s been invisible. Just ask Minus Mitch

When you score well over a PPG-pace in 82 games, how "invisible" can you really be?

He's statistically contributed at least every game and then some, on average.

 

[Nooodles]

So what about that David Pagnotta?

He is so f***ing reliable!

Bahahahaha
All those attention seeker loosers...

 

[ORRFForever]

I think the initial offer of $9.5M is completely fair and there's a lot of evidence to suggest that's what Marner should be paid.

All's I'm saying is you don't make an offer of that and then simultaneously tell them you can also give them more...

Fair enough.

My statement/post is based on the assumption that the Leafs are willing and able to go to $10.5M - and the Leafs want to make this go away.

 

[Notsince67]

Then why was 8.5x5 the best offer Aho could find? While Marner scores a bit more points, Aho is a center who scores more goals.

Why does your argument not apply to Aho?

Why havent Rantanen, Point, Tkachuk or Laine signed? Has the market not been estabished?

 

[Bomber0104]

Fair enough.

My statement/post is based on the assumption that the Leafs are willing and able to go to $10.5M.

The trick is to let Marner's camp figure that out themselves.

There's no doubt the Leafs have an idea of what the best/worst/expected outcomes are for the negotitation. But they're not about to tell the other side what that is...

 

[Mess]

Then why was 8.5x5 the best offer Aho could find? While Marner scores a bit more points, Aho is a center who scores more goals.

Why does your argument not apply to Aho?

The answer is obvious but many don't want to hear nor accept it.

Internal team salary/cap comparables vs external comparables.

Aho in Carolina does not have any $11 mil dollar teammates on their roster that score more points than he did. Aho couldn't even get $8.5 mil X 5 offer from his own team and needed a 3rd party team through the inflationary OS process to get the contract he wanted in order to make himself the highest paid Hurricane.

Marner could care less what Aho a statistically reasonable comparison to himself makes, because he is Leaf and not a Cane.

If Marner were in TB and Kucherov signs for $9.5 mil X 8 years after 128 points and Stamkos re-ups for $8.5 mil X 8 years after scoring 45 goals and 98 points this last year, as they finished 1st and 9th in OA NHL scoring, then could Marner coming off a 26 goal and 94 point season really be demanding $10.5 mil or more on a short-term deal as his internal comparables?

Its just like in Real Estate its Location Location Location.

 

[ORRFForever]

I just hope Marner does not leave over $1,000,000 or some amount like that. After taxes, it will be less than $500K.

If he gets to UFA, and he is the same player he is now, the difference will be an insignificant amount in the rear view mirror of his life.

There is FAR more to life than money. Happily take less if it means you can play where you love.

 

[hector morrison]

I also have pondered how long this drag out, and the ramifications if it did. Wonder how good it would really be if Marner does what Nylander did and signs last minute?

An offer sheet would be a drag, but it would end the saga. Got to wonder how much the MLSE/Shanny/Dubas really worry about an offer sheet? Would it be enough to get them to compromise? By compromise I'm defining it as them offering more than they were initially envisioning.

At this point,I think Dubas should impose a now or never date with a take-it-or-leave it offer. ...not publicly,but to reason with Marner that the Team needs to know which direction to go in.The money could be used on other players(likely very good ones) while they are available.Or,the trade option might be very interesting as well!Ultimately, Marner sitting out the year is worse for Marner than anyone else,so common sense has to rule the day here!

If money is the crux of the matter,then I need someone to explain/prove that Mitch can do better elsewhere. His players salary can be beaten if a team is desperate enough to hand over the 4 1st rounders,but the his popularity(endorsement money) and influence can't be matched anywhere. He is so well liked here that he might even be more valuable off the ice than on!

 

[Notsince67]

No. I say $10.5M is the Max and stand by it. That way he knows where you stand and you set a precedence with other players - you're blunt, honest and you do NOT move.

I'd also make it public. That way, the press/fans know, and the whole thing is in Marner's hands. He can do with it what he wants.

I think it is unlikely that it will get that high because i cant believe that the two parties havent at lease agreed on a number. I think the issue is term. Dubas can be this dumb to strap the teams cap numbers by signing cici. He would have hedged his bets. My guess is the number comes between 8 to 9.5mm from 2 years to 5 years.

 

[diceman934]

I see ok, thanks for the explanation and civility, I just wanted to be clear as emotions in this place at times run very high, can’t even have a back and forth debate without people losing their minds, so was merely clarifying



I think Matthews is overpaid as well, but that’s a different story. He should have gotten 11.6 for 8 years, 5 is brutal. That said, I do think being a Center and having the incredible ability to score that Matthews has, comes at a premium and that is atleast 1.5 mil more then any winger not named Kucherov

See being a center is meanless. A goal scorer will always get paid a little more plenty of examples. A team’s best player no matter position should get the most money and teams with a proper salary structure follow that and always have. It is when you make exceptions that it gets you in trouble. Us signing JT was a good move but it changed our salary structure as Mathews wanted more money as goes Mitch as they are both better. If Mitch played all season with Mathews they both would have more points. With Marner still leading the team in scoring. He is going to get signed and it will be less money then Mathews but he deserves more. Anything under Mathews deal will be a discount. Lots in here will say he got over paid no matter what and will be wrong as they fail to either think that he is as good as Mathews and also think Centers should make more which I have explained it has always been the best player.

 

[dangomon]

The answer is obvious but many don't want to hear nor accept it.

Internal team salary/cap comparables vs external comparables.

Aho in Carolina does not have any $11 mil dollar players on their roster that score more points than he did. Aho couldn't even get $8.5 mil X 5 offer from his own team and needed a 3rd party team through the inflationary OS process to get the contract he wanted.

Marner could care less what Aho a statistically reasonable comparison to himself makes, because he is Leaf and not a Cane.

If Marner were in TB and Kucherov signs for $9.5 mil X 8 years after 128 points and Stamkos re-ups for $8.5 mil X 8 years after scoring 45 goals and 98 points this last year, as they finished 1st and 9th in OA NHL scoring, then could Marner coming off a 26 goal and 94 point season really be demanding $10.5 mil or more on a short-term deal as his internal comparables?

Its just like in Real Estate its Location Location Location.

But, internal comparables have no bearing on the offer-sheet market. If Marner goes to NJ, NYI or anyone and says.."I want Matthews money, he was on my team and I outscored him", they will say great, we didn't pay Matthews and we won't pay you that.

Which means, either Mitch accepts the Leaf's offer (whatever it is), or he seeks on offer-sheet from a team with entirely different internal comparables, which are most likely lower than Matthews and Tavares.

 

[ORRFForever]

The trick is to let Marner's camp figure that out themselves.

There's no doubt the Leafs have an idea of what the best/worst/expected outcomes are for the negotitation. But they're not about to tell the other side what that is...

I would release the info, as much for the fans and press as anything else. Instead of being bombarded with questions, let everyone know where you stand and stick to it.

Steve Simmons wrote something last Saturday that I agree with...

He said (paraphrasing), "When Lou L. was in charge of the Devils, it was known that NO one would be paid more than Marty B. In Detroit, it was Lindstrom."

For them, it worked - 2 of the most successful teams in the NHL. I would make that kind of honesty/transparency work for me, too.

 

[ORRFForever]

I think it is unlikely that it will get that high because i cant believe that the two parties havent at lease agreed on a number. I think the issue is term. Dubas can be this dumb to strap the teams cap numbers by signing cici. He would have hedged his bets. My guess is the number comes between 8 to 9.5mm from 2 years to 5 years.

Wow. I'm surprised Marner would sign for that low a number - unless it was a 4 year deal.

If the Leafs agree to 4 years, all bets on are off because that changes everything.

If it is NOT 4 years, if I'm Marner, I think I can get to $10M+ and I would hold for that.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I'm still of the belief that Marner was indeed given more than one offersheet that he isn't going to sign due to lack of interest in that team, or the pay is too low, or both.

 

[Kiwi]

$11.6 vs $10.5 plus your next four 1sts are not at all the same thing. 4 x 1 is worth a lot more than $1M. Plus the extra two years in the Panarin deal means you have bought his entire prime. More years costs higher AAV. I do think Mitch has the balls for the right price though.

I wonder if he actually does, all the rumours were the Islanders wanted to give him 12.5M×7 and Marner didn't want to sign it, if he's not signing something as potentially lucrative as that he's not signing an offersheet

Marner isn't an idiot, I think he's possibly pissed off with the Leafs and the process but I do still believe he doesn't want to go anywhere else and isn't willing to sign an offersheet that may potentially have him end up in another city

So stalemate

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I'm still of the belief that Marner was indeed given more than one offersheet that he isn't going to sign due to lack of interest in that team, or the pay is too low, or both.

One more thing to add.

We aren't going to be hearing about these non-signed offersheets because Marner's camp isn't going to tell Dreger that they are receiving 9.5Mx7 offers.

 

[ORRFForever]

I think it is unlikely that it will get that high because i cant believe that the two parties havent at lease agreed on a number. I think the issue is term. Dubas can be this dumb to strap the teams cap numbers by signing cici. He would have hedged his bets. My guess is the number comes between 8 to 9.5mm from 2 years to 5 years.

At anything less than $10.18, I can't believe someone wouldn't offer sheet him. He is too good not to get an offer that approaches $10M.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The answer is obvious but many don't want to hear nor accept it.

Internal team salary/cap comparables vs external comparables.

Aho in Carolina does not have any $11 mil dollar teammates on their roster that score more points than he did. Aho couldn't even get $8.5 mil X 5 offer from his own team and needed a 3rd party team through the inflationary OS process to get the contract he wanted in order to make himself the highest paid Hurricane.

Marner could care less what Aho a statistically reasonable comparison to himself makes, because he is Leaf and not a Cane.

If Marner were in TB and Kucherov signs for $9.5 mil X 8 years after 128 points and Stamkos re-ups for $8.5 mil X 8 years after scoring 45 goals and 98 points this last year, as they finished 1st and 9th in OA NHL scoring, then could Marner coming off a 26 goal and 94 point season really be demanding $10.5 mil or more on a short-term deal as his internal comparables?

Its just like in Real Estate its Location Location Location.

Why would another team offer sheet Marner far more than Aho based on the leafs internal cap structures? Other teams aren't bound by the leafs internal cap structure.

 

[Notsince67]

Wow. I'm surprised Marner would sign for that low a number - unless it was a 4 year deal.

If the Leafs agree to 4, all bets on are off. That changes everything.

An 8.5mm deal over 3 years would be a terrific contract from Marners perspective IMO. It is a big number but only .5mm less that what Matthews asked for initially. Not saying the leafs would do that but it is an example of how to get the number down and maintain an acceptable cap hit for the next 3 years

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Why havent Rantanen, Point, Tkachuk or Laine signed? Has the market not been estabished?

Yeah, I don't think any of them will get a 10.5x5 offer sheet either.

 

[Clark4Ever]

The Marner camp is not going to get the AAV they want from the Leafs or any other team on an offer sheet for the term they are willing to commit to.

I say Dubas should hold firm on the numbers that make sense for the organization or let Marner sit out for the year. His camp is being completely unreasonable.

 

[ORRFForever]

One more thing to add.

We aren't going to be hearing about these non-signed offersheets because Marner's camp isn't going to tell Dreger that they are receiving 9.5Mx7 offers.

I can't believe someone doesn't offer him $8.117M x 4.

You get Marner CHEAP, you get him for 4 years, and it doesn't cost you much - a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Marner gets UFA in 4, and the Leafs get screwed - even if they match.

 

[Notsince67]

At anything less than $10.18, I can't believe someone wouldn't offer sheet him. He is too good not to get an offer that approaches $10M.

I suspect he may have received one for term but have already laid a framework with Dubas to not accept OS with term. Everyone assumes maximum drama here. The fact that he hasnt signed might just be a mutual agreement to see where the other rfas come in at.

 

[Notsince67]

Yeah, I don't think any of them will get a 10.5x5 offer sheet either.

Nobody expected any offersheets to appear this year.

 

[ORRFForever]

An 8.5mm deal over 3 years would be a terrific contract from Marners perspective IMO. It is a big number but only .5mm less that what Matthews asked for initially. Not saying the leafs would do that but it is an example of how to get the number down and maintain an acceptable cap hit for the next 3 years

I just think he can do better.

Again, if I am Marner's camp, I asking anyone and everyone for a 4 year OS at $8.17M.

Sign it, put in your time, and control your destiny in 4 short years.