Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[Nylander88]

Control his own destiny in the shortest amount of time, while still getting paid a decent amount.

You control nothing. You signed cheaper than the Leafs have been offering and then Dubas' just trades you after he matches. Relationship ruined and you're shipped to a garbage market

 

[Superstar]

The fire alarm malfunctioned in the house in the middle of the night. Couldn't get back to sleep.

You're the source for Kawhi Leonard...

 

[Kiwi]

True.

Still... If you were the Islanders, and Lou L was NOT in charge (he is a Bettman man, thru and thru), you might do it. Or maybe the Habs.

I would never do that, that's an horrendous precedent to set if your a team
I'd rather give Marner a 12.5M×5 offersheet than do that and that offersheet is pure lunacy

This is going to be long and painful imo

Both sides are pissed off with each other but neither side wants Marner leaving for somewhere else, this has the potential to be an ugly stalemate

 

[ORRFForever]

You control nothing. You signed cheaper than the Leafs have been offering and then Dubas' just trades you after he matches. Relationship ruined and you're shipped to a garbage market

OR : Toronto matches, you play here for 4, you get paid $8M/yr, then you get to choose your money and destination - no strings attached.

 

[ORRFForever]

This is going to be long and painful imo

Both sides are pissed off with each other but neither side wants Marner leaving for somewhere else, this has the potential to be an ugly stalemate

Well said.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

You control nothing. You signed cheaper than the Leafs have been offering and then Dubas' just trades you after he matches. Relationship ruined and you're shipped to a garbage market

Pretty sure you have to wait a year to trade after matching an offersheet.

 

[Nylander88]

Or : Toronto matches, you play here for 4, and you get to choose your money and destination - no strings attached.

Heck of a gamble from the players side to sign that and hope Dubas' doesn't give a big F you and send you to a bottom feeder. Not sure any agent would advise that one

 

[ORRFForever]

This is going to be long and painful imo

Both sides are pissed off with each other but neither side wants Marner leaving for somewhere else, this has the potential to be an ugly stalemate

If you were to hazard a guess how this plays out : Money and Term, what would your final guess be?

 

[ORRFForever]

Heck of a gamble from the players side to sign that and hope Dubas' doesn't give a big F you and send you to a bottom feeder. Not sure any agent would advise that one

That's true.

Again, this whole thing has been analyzed to death. I'm just throwing something "different" out there.

 

[Superstar]

Pretty sure you have to wait a year to trade after matching an offersheet.

Gives Dubas plenty of time to adjust the roster ahead of the trade...

 

[Nylander88]

Pretty sure you have to wait a year to trade after matching an offersheet.

Absolutely. I meant after that point. I didn't state that, that's my bad lol it's historically proven to wreck relationships. Aho won't be a long-tjne cane now if I'm a betting man. Heck of a gamble for Marner to sign for less than what we are reportedly offering just to get straight to free agency. Dubas' see's you're just interested in getting to UFA by signing a crappy 4 year from some team..you won't be in Toronto longer than needed, he'll know the issue coming up when FA comes around and move him for assets

 

[biotk]

But you don't *have* to pay Matthews for his prime years. Not like this. There are leverage points for both sides in an RFA negotiation. TOR used *none* of them in the Matthews negotiation. They basically gave him the AAV he wanted over the term he wanted.

I'm sure RFAs want shorter deals now. But Aho just got *offer sheeted* at $8.5 million over five years. That's a hostile offer designed to steal a player and it was 30 percent less than Matthews.

No other RFA -- not Point, not Rantanen, not Tkachuk -- is looking for eight figures in a short-term deal, except Marner. And that's because Dubas gave the same deal to Matthews when he didn't have to.

The problem with what you are saying is that Leafs' management, the very people who know way more about Matthews and Marner - in terms of their value, potential, injury history etc - simply disagree with you.

The Leafs' management played hardball with Nylander - fighting to push him down further and further until minutes before the deadline. The same Leafs' management quickly and easily signed a contract with Matthews, and now are in a battle with Marner - with the rumoured offers from the Leafs' management being way less than what Matthews got. That didn't have to be the case. The Leafs could have flipped Kerfoot for a league minimum C, or they could have walked away from Ceci, or they could have traded Kapanen or Johnsson.

The Leafs made 2 big trades on July 1 and everyone was saying that they did those to open up cap space to pay Marner more money. Before that they traded Marleau and everyone said that they did that to pay Marner more money. Instead, with the Marleau money they paid Kapanen and Johnsson and with the July 1 trades they signed all those people essentially opening up no new money from any of that to pay Marner. They haven't done anything to try to open up more money for Marner than what they have already offered him.

The take away from this should be that the people who know the most feel that Matthews is way more valuable than Marner (or Aho, or Laine, or Rantanen, or Tkachuk).

You are free to believe they are wrong, and none of us will know for a couple years.

 

[Nylander88]

That's true.

Again, this whole thing has been analyzed to death. I'm just throwing something "different" out there.

I see Dubas' offering the max amount we can while staying under the cap. And offering it by 3 years. We keep control and Mitch can likely sign a massive extension at that time when we have a larger cap. Low 9's x 3yrs

 

[Michoulicious]

$11.6 vs $10.5 plus your next four 1sts are not at all the same thing. 4 x 1 is worth a lot more than $1M. Plus the extra two years in the Panarin deal means you have bought his entire prime. More years costs higher AAV. I do think Mitch has the balls for the right price though.

10.5 x 5 would be 2 first, a second and a third. I think most GMs would be willing to give that for a player like Marner.

 

[Gabriel426]

The answer is obvious but many don't want to hear nor accept it.

Internal team salary/cap comparables vs external comparables.

Aho in Carolina does not have any $11 mil dollar teammates on their roster that score more points than he did. Aho couldn't even get $8.5 mil X 5 offer from his own team and needed a 3rd party team through the inflationary OS process to get the contract he wanted in order to make himself the highest paid Hurricane.

Marner could care less what Aho a statistically reasonable comparison to himself makes, because he is Leaf and not a Cane.

If Marner were in TB and Kucherov signs for $9.5 mil X 8 years after 128 points and Stamkos re-ups for $8.5 mil X 8 years after scoring 45 goals and 98 points this last year, as they finished 1st and 9th in OA NHL scoring, then could Marner coming off a 26 goal and 94 point season really be demanding $10.5 mil or more on a short-term deal as his internal comparables?

Its just like in Real Estate its Location Location Location.

Won’t that work in Leafs favor, bc according to that logic, only Edmonton, maybe Buffalo will be wiling to offer Marner-Matthews money. As that will screw up their internal cap if they OS Marner 11mil

 

[ORRFForever]

I see Dubas' offering the max amount we can while staying under the cap. And offering it by 3 years. We keep control and Mitch can likely sign a massive extension at that time when we have a larger cap. Low 9's x 3yrs

Fair enough. Maybe.

 

[supermann_98]

10.5 x 5 would be 2 first, a second and a third. I think most GMs would be willing to give that for a player like Marner.

This is the best deal Marner can expect at this point from an offer sheet, and the one where Dubas has no choice but to accept because the compensation isn't enough.

Its also the one I'm most worried about him signing.

 

[Gabriel426]

Know this thread is on Marner, but am disgusted Kawhi chose to broke this major news at 2am. What a dick. Atleast he got us a championship, I'm bittersweet.

Dude he signed for way less and went home. This is not speculation as it is common knowledge that Kawhi can get 30mil more if he resigns with Raptors.

 

[thewave]

This is the best deal Marner can expect at this point from an offer sheet, and the one where Dubas has no choice but to accept because the compensation isn't enough.

Its also the one I'm most worried about him signing.

10.5m x 1 2 3 4 are all better and could be tabled. X4 is a terribly realistic threat.

 

[Gabriel426]

This is the best deal Marner can expect at this point from an offer sheet, and the one where Dubas has no choice but to accept because the compensation isn't enough.

Its also the one I'm most worried about him signing.

Honestly, if he signs this OS, he is just being a loser. It doesn’t show he wants to a Leafs but rather it shows he wants every dollar he can get from the Leafs. I can see if he believes he is a 11mil player, then sign for 11mil with other team but the cost of that is not being a Leafs.

 

[nuck]

10.5 x 5 would be 2 first, a second and a third. I think most GMs would be willing to give that for a player like Marner.

Leafs would match at 10.5 for sure. Unless he backslides he is tradeable at that number and the comp is not close to adequate below 4 firsts. Mitch would want 5 years which is probably the sticking point and might be a reason where they match and still trade.

 

[ACC1224]

Isn't that like asking a poker player to show you his cards because you believe he's bluffing and not holding the hand he's portraying.

By the time Dubas is entitled to see the sheet it will be too late as it will have Marner's signature on it.

Besides if all any player agent needed was an unsigned offersheet (not worth the paper its printed on) to fool his GM into using it as confirmation to gain a higher salary then agents would be handing these out like candy in contract negotiations.

** From the last thread.

No it's not like poker at all as you can win if your bluff isn't called, take the pot and deal the next hand.

The GM can tell the player to sign it and they'll decide over the week whether to match or not.
I'm not even the biggest Dubas fan but I certainly give him more credit than you are. I get the impression you feel he's an idiot.

** Any GM is going to contact Dubas anyway to work out a deal if they feel their Offer will be signed as they'd rather trade than give up picks and certainly don't want the sheet matched.

 

[MattySnipes]

Dude he signed for way less and went home. This is not speculation as it is common knowledge that Kawhi can get 30mil more if he resigns with Raptors.

Yea we could've offered him the most but he chose to be home. Maybe he'll help the Clippers win one? That'd be some legacy. Anyway, hard to be mad at the guy, really wanted to defend title with him in the fold but clearly not possible. Wish him the best, just wish he'd have signed earlier instead of all the drama. Apparently he was waiting on LAC to acquire PG13.

 

[supermann_98]

10.5m x 1 2 3 4 are all better and could be tabled. X4 is a terribly realistic threat.

I agree all are better but I highly doubt any NHL gm would offer that and become a pariah within the rest of the league.

 

[Notsince67]

And the one that did firmly set the market.

In your opinion.