Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[Ratboy]

Im curious if we have any rumours that are likely true regarding what's going on. I just heard Marner is looking for 11.5 per. Please tell me this isn't true

 

[Michoulicious]

Leafs would match at 10.5 for sure. Unless he backslides he is tradeable at that number and the comp is not close to adequate below 4 firsts. Mitch would want 5 years which is probably the sticking point and might be a reason where they match and still trade.

They could not trade him for a year, though.

 

[egd27]

In an alternate reality where the Leafs end up third in the 2016 lottery and end up with Dubois, which results in JT staying with the Isles, is Marner a 94 point winger last year?

If not, what would you guess? 60? 70?

 

[Kiwi]

If you were to hazard a guess how this plays out : Money and Term, what would your final guess be?

He doesn't want long term and I doubt were going to buckle and give him 4 or 5 with Matthews and Nylander's contracts up then as well

So it can only be a bridge if my assumption than nobody wants him leaving town is correct, 2 years for around 7M-8M is my best guess

 

[Throw More Waffles]

In your opinion.

No opinion about it.

Everyone has been saying that all along that Marner/Point/Aho/Rantanen are a very similar tier. They were all waiting for someone to sign first and "set the market". Well, it's happened. It was 8.5x5

We CAN'T have Dubas (yet again) paying far more money than other gm's give comparables. That HAS to stop.

 

[holy]

Im curious if we have any rumours that are likely true regarding what's going on. I just heard Marner is looking for 11.5 per. Please tell me this isn't true

He's got lil bro syndrome regarding Matthews.

 

[Mess]

But you yourself keep saying how important internal cap structures are.

Wouldn't heavily overpaying Mitch Marner via offer sheet ruin the teams internal cap structure? And that's not even considering the four 1st round picks...

It's insanity. There is no way it's happening.

Aho happened at a price that wouldn't ruin Montreals internal cap structure, and at the cost of only 1 first round pick, not 4.

No question any team willing to give Marner an offersheet worth 4 X 1st round draft picks would be blowing up their own internal salary cap to hell, and that would be a serious concern and what prevents many OS from happening as they don't want to be in Toronto's shoes and step in the same cap hell mess they made for themselves.

When Dubas signed JT he blew the ceiling off the Leafs internal salary cap by raising the top player salary to $11 mil. Then the younger Matthews leverage that contracts and says "great I'm better than JT so my floor is $11 mil and I'm going to be the highest paid Maple Leaf when the dust settles on my new contract" and so Dubas torpedoed the Leafs salary cap further by not only raising the salary bar higher now to $11.634 mil but also shortened the term to just 5 years (which is ridiculous) as that should have been the rate $$ over 8 years (buying 4 years of UFA status not 1).

Now Marner the teams leading scorer the past 2 years is laughing all the way to the bank when he uses both JT $11 mil and now AM 5 year term as his leverage in contract talks. How can Dubas think he can buy away 4 years of UFA status from Marner after just giving away the farm to Matthews on 5 years? This is all self inflicted GM body of work and nothing to do with Marner player greed here as past precedence is being used.

So you're 100% correct that any team willing to heavily overpay Marner on an OS, has to be prepared to deal with all the future ramifications of that decision when their own players need to get resigned and then they use Marner's contact as their leverage and that teams internal salary cap in negotiations.

Offersheets are not really good for business, for any team making them, and would really only be used on players where dealing with the consequences made sense going forward.

 

[Notsince67]

I've been observing your posts in this thread and I won't lie I am not a professional stats guy or in the field but I can definitely appreciate how you're comparing them (Marner vs. Matthews).

It's very interesting to say the least. Marner in terms of primary assists (playmaker), Matthews (goals). I know Marner was right among the top last year in terms of primary production.

I am positive they would use this in negotiations. "Hey Kyle, you're paying Auston for being an elite goal scorer, time to pay me for producing elite primary production."

The difference in the correlation coefficient is also interesting. I don't seem to know what it all means in the end but good on you for finding an interesting way to compare them even more. Not saying it's right or wrong, but it is interesting.

The best way no understand it is expected outcome vs actual. A lot of stats are not easily available. It has been said by a number of people that expected primary points are the most predictive of future output. Good luck finding someone who has crunched numbers on expected primary assists and have published them to the extent expected goals are. I would suspect the new tracking technology that the nhl is implementing next year will bring to light more dynamic numbers.

 

[Notsince67]

No opinion about it.

Everyone has been saying that all along that Marner/Point/Aho/Rantanen are a very similar tier. They were all waiting for someone to sign first and "set the market". Well, it's happened. It was 8.5x5

We CAN'T have Dubas (yet again) paying far more money than other gm's give comparables. That HAS to stop.

Yeah...I suspect it hasnt in light of Ceci contract.

 

[Ratboy]

What are you guys willing to pay for Marner? If we're looking at an OS what AAV are you comfortable with matching at?

 

[REM17]

If you were to hazard a guess how this plays out : Money and Term, what would your final guess be?

10.5/5 on Dec 1st

 

[ORRFForever]

He doesn't want long term and I doubt were going to buckle and give him 4 or 5 with Matthews and Nylander's contracts up then as well

So it can only be a bridge if my assumption than nobody wants him leaving town is correct, 2 years for around 7M-8M is my best guess

Thanks!

 

[ORRFForever]

10.5/5 on Dec 1st

I like this. Good guess and in line with what I believe.

 

[ORRFForever]

What are you guys willing to pay for Marner? If we're looking at an OS what AAV are you comfortable with matching at?

I have always said $10.5M.

If someone makes an offer sheet for anything more than that, take the picks.

 

[Michoulicious]

What are you guys willing to pay for Marner? If we're looking at an OS what AAV are you comfortable with matching at?

I think Dubas will match until 10.5 x 5 because the compensation sucks (2 firsts, a second, a third). Anything that gives him back the 4 firsts won't be matched.

 

[ORRFForever]

He's got lil bro syndrome regarding Matthews.

True...

But you would, too, if you outperformed Matthews, stayed healthy when Matthews didn't, played on the PK when Matthews didn't, but kept being treated like the Ugly Step Sister by the Leafs.

 

[Michoulicious]

10.5/5 on Dec 1st

Ohhh sooner than that. Bergevin gets his picks back on Monday sooooo... Monday?

My guess is if there's an offersheet, it will be soon. Teams are going to want to know rapidly in order to know what to expect roster/salary wise for the next season. When option A (offersheet to prime RFAs) is not possible anymore, they'll explore the other options (trade, etc.).

But I agree it will end up around 10.5 x 5.

 

[holy]

True...

But you would, too, if you outperformed Matthews, stayed healthy when Matthews didn't, played on the PK when Matthews didn't, but kept being treated like the Ugly Step Sister by the Leafs.

Thankfully the Leafs treat me like the sexy piece of meat I am.

 

[ORRFForever]

Thankfully the Leafs treat me like the sexy piece of meat I am.

LOL. Good for you! I'm sure it is well deserved.

 

[Gabriel426]

Yea we could've offered him the most but he chose to be home. Maybe he'll help the Clippers win one? That'd be some legacy. Anyway, hard to be mad at the guy, really wanted to defend title with him in the fold but clearly not possible. Wish him the best, just wish he'd have signed earlier instead of all the drama. Apparently he was waiting on LAC to acquire PG13.

Even if he signs with Clippers right away, there will always be drama.
If anything, I feel bad for OKC, or any other small market teams in the NBA. What’s the point of recruiting and signing superstars when they can just demand a trade after signing a mega deal one yr later.

 

[Gabriel426]

True...

But you would, too, if you outperformed Matthews, stayed healthy when Matthews didn't, played on the PK when Matthews didn't, but kept being treated like the Ugly Step Sister by the Leafs.

Wait a minute, Leafs is not offering Marner 5mil/yr. They might offer Matthews money but they are not mistreating Marner.

 

[nuck]

They could not trade him for a year, though.

That would be okay I think. He can prove he is worth as much as AM or at least worth the 10.6 and they can try a playoff run with this lineup. If the deal is for 5 unless he is Kuch 2.0 they should deal him next summer. 5 years means they are setting themselves up to get jacked for max money again with him going into his UFA years and they are already at risk of Matthew's and Willie doing it the same year.

 

[MattySnipes]

Even if he signs with Clippers right away, there will always be drama.
If anything, I feel bad for OKC, or any other small market teams in the NBA. What’s the point of recruiting and signing superstars when they can just demand a trade after signing a mega deal one yr later.

They're not joking when they say it's a "player's league"

 

[biotk]

In an alternate reality where the Leafs end up third in the 2016 lottery and end up with Dubois, which results in JT staying with the Isles, is Marner a 94 point winger last year?

If not, what would you guess? 60? 70?

75

 

[Mess]

Won’t that work in Leafs favor, bc according to that logic, only Edmonton, maybe Buffalo will be wiling to offer Marner-Matthews money. As that will screw up their internal cap if they OS Marner 11mil

Yup, it works to Leafs favour to perhaps prevent an OS from happening that they might be faced with.

But you can't limit that to just McDavid and Eichel contracts and those teams for internal reasons.

What is stopping NYI for example making Marner an $11 mil player via OS and setting their bar accordingly. However when Barzal who put up 86 points in his rookie season is due up next year no question he would use his new teammate Marner and his point production as a comparable. However if Lou Lam doesn't OS Marner at $11 mil, than maybe he gets Barzal for $8.5 mil using Aho as his comparable making him still the highest paid Islander in the process and removing leverage that would have been self inflicted.

If NJ OS Marner then they face the consequences when trying to resign Taylor Hall and when #1OA Jack Hughes ELC is up. etc etc

So even if teams have cap space and willing to surrender 4 X 1sts the OS route might be a future internal poison pill to swallow, unless you believe Marner will be your teams best and highest paid player for the foreseeable near future.

Had NYR not landed Panarin they would have been a good candidate to OS Marner at that level, because when they gave Panarin that $$ they did the very same thing to their own internal cap that an OS for Marner would have.

But now take LA Kings with lots of cap space and Doughty making $11 mil and Kopitar locked in at $1o mil so their internal damage is already done and nothing an $11 mil OS to Marner would really hurt in regards to screwing up their own internal cap structure.