Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[REM17]

 

[Michoulicious]

That would be okay I think. He can prove he is worth as much as AM or at least worth the 10.6 and they can try a playoff run with this lineup. If the deal is for 5 unless he is Kuch 2.0 they should deal him next summer. 5 years means they are setting themselves up to get jacked for max money again with him going into his UFA years and they are already at risk of Matthew's and Willie doing it the same year.

Since 10.5 x 5 is the most people feel Dubas would match, which other moves would need to be made to fit a Marner at 10.5 on the roster for 2019-2020? Even with Horton LTIR, I get 82,9 millions caphit. Put 2 sub-million players in the AHL and run a 21 players roster?

 

[MyBudJT]

That tweet was from yesterday... NJ sure are taking their time!

 

[biotk]

What are you guys willing to pay for Marner? If we're looking at an OS what AAV are you comfortable with matching at?

9x5 which is an overpayment (I would pay slightly more or less per year depending on more or less term). As to the offersheet - I would match anything before 4 1sts return and then trade him next summer - preferably to one of the teams he would least like to go to. There is a zero percent chance I would allow Marner to be on my team any longer than required if he tried to screw us over with an OS. But, I would have traded him before July 1st, so I wouldn't have had to worry about an OS anyway.

 

[Erndog]

That tweet was from yesterday... NJ sure are taking their time!

Or maybe they called and Ferrris/Marner said no thanks.

Also... there is so much crap out there right now its unbelievable. Its exactly like the Kawhi thing where every 3rd person on Twitter "heard" something.

 

[biotk]

Since 10.5 x 5 is the most people feel Dubas would match, which other moves would need to be made to fit a Marner at 10.5 on the roster for 2019-2020? Even with Horton LTIR, I get 82,9 millions caphit. Put 2 sub-million players in the AHL and run a 21 players roster?

Pretty much. There will be a little bit more money freed up if Hyman and Dermott start the season on LTIR, but not much, and it only accrues while they are on LTIR. I think they might just carry one scratch with them on the road - you could carry a D and then if a forward misses a game due to illness you just run 11F 7D. It is an absurd thing to need to do.

Funnily enough people had been saying for months that Liljegren would be on the Leafs next year, in part, because they need his cheap ELC contract, but in reality they can't afford Liljegren (or Sandin) because Holl, Harpur, Marincin, Borgman and Garvel are all much cheaper options for 3rd pairing D when every dollar counts.

 

[Kiwi]

Boring, I feel like I'm being **** teased at this point
God offersheets suck, I feel like this threat has been out there for weeks and still nothing

Until he actually signs something I'm going to pretend they don't exist

 

[Michoulicious]

Pretty much. There will be a little bit more money freed up if Hyman and Dermott start the season on LTIR, but not much, and it only accrues while they are on LTIR. I think they might just carry one scratch with them on the road - you could carry a D and then if a forward misses a game due to illness you just run 11F 7D. It is an absurd thing to need to do.

Funnily enough people had been saying for months that Liljegren would be on the Leafs next year, in part, because they need his cheap ELC contract, but in reality they can't afford Liljegren (or Sandin) because Holl, Harpur, Marincin, Borgman and Garvel are all much cheaper options for 3rd pairing D when every dollar counts.

Yeah, thoses ELC performance bonuses need to be taken into account.

 

[Deebo]

Yeah, thoses ELC performance bonuses need to be taken into account.

Sandin doesn't have any.

 

[Peiskos]

Just sign the contract for 9 million Marner. There’s an interview of him as a small child of CP24 asking his what his favourite team is, he said the Toronto Maple Leafs obviously. If he wants more Leafs will need to move some contracts around. In the end it will come between greed and heart to play for the Leafs.

Let’s hope Marner has more heart than greed. Although with today’s generation of athlete, you just never know anymore.

Full well preparing to accept Matthews, Tavares and 4 first round picks to compensate as our guys moving forward if he decides to sign any offer sheet, an action that would make him the most booed player in the history of this sport.

Your move Mitch.

 

[ORRFForever]

Wait a minute, Leafs is not offering Marner 5mil/yr. They might offer Matthews money but they are not mistreating Marner.

It's all subjective.

From our perspective, someone offering us $1M would seem like a blessing. If you're Mitch Marner, $9.5M might seem like an insult...

 

[ORRFForever]

Marner is my favourite Leaf, but I don't believe he is worth anywhere near that money. That's crazy!

 

[Mess]

** From the last thread.

No it's not like poker at all as you can win if your bluff isn't called, take the pot and deal the next hand.

The GM can tell the player to sign it and they'll decide over the week whether to match or not.
I'm not even the biggest Dubas fan but I certainly give him more credit than you are. I get the impression you feel he's an idiot.

** Any GM is going to contact Dubas anyway to work out a deal if they feel their Offer will be signed as they'd rather trade than give up picks and certainly don't want the sheet matched.

Dubas would have to be a good poker player and call Ferris/Marner bluff if they claim they have an offersheet for X $ and they just need to sign it. I was commenting on that Dubas doesn't get to see any unsigned OS simply by asking, as essentially their worthless unsigned.

I agree 100% with the last part and have posted similar that I believe also that another team would first try and exhaust the trade route, before going nuclear on an OS steal.. That is the last resort only if Leafs are unwilling to trade Marner at all to you, or you can't find common ground on a trade. I'd expect even a curiosity call letting Dubas know they plan of going this route, and didn't need to hear it first from Marner's camp.

Dubas is a smart guy, I only believe he is inexperienced and that it appears he seems to be getting taking advantage of by experienced hardened player agents. He caved to Nylander and then front loaded the deal to make Willy whole for missed time, and the Matthews 5 year dealt at that $$$ doesn't make any sense based comparables.. That was likely predicated on Dubas fully believing that if unsigned Matthews would already have received a $12-14 mil OS for 5 years by now as teams tried to land a marque #1C via OS and that is even worse then the bad overpayment contract he gave him.

I knew the minute he gave JT that contract that he screwed himself and our Leafs going forward with AM and MM next deals as that contract would act as a magnet for all future signings, but I'm not sure Dubas thought that way. In fact I know he didn't because if he did he would have gotten Marner signed last summer when the Draisaitl contract $8.5 mil X 8 was common ground on a $9 mil ask and a $7.5 mil counter all on full term by Dubas. Look where Dubas finds himself now and its going to result in millions of overpayment.

We'll have to see how this Marner contract plays out to conclusion to form final opinion, but so far things are not going well and past precedence of GM signings not giving me any warm and fuzzy feelings this will fall in Dubas/Leafs favour when all is said and done, because Dubas has painted himself into a corner and its hard to see an easy way out that shows him as winning and keeping Marner at fair market value. IMO

 

[Damisoph]

The answer is obvious but many don't want to hear nor accept it.

Internal team salary/cap comparables vs external comparables.

Aho in Carolina does not have any $11 mil dollar teammates on their roster that score more points than he did. Aho couldn't even get $8.5 mil X 5 offer from his own team and needed a 3rd party team through the inflationary OS process to get the contract he wanted in order to make himself the highest paid Hurricane.

Marner could care less what Aho a statistically reasonable comparison to himself makes, because he is Leaf and not a Cane.

If Marner were in TB and Kucherov signs for $9.5 mil X 8 years after 128 points and Stamkos re-ups for $8.5 mil X 8 years after scoring 45 goals and 98 points this last year, as they finished 1st and 9th in OA NHL scoring, then could Marner coming off a 26 goal and 94 point season really be demanding $10.5 mil or more on a short-term deal as his internal comparables?

Its just like in Real Estate its Location Location Location.

surely you understand the flaw in your argument. We're talking offer sheets...the Matthews comparison means nothing to the Isles, or Devils, or whoever else trying to get him to sign an offer sheet. So at some point, Paul and Darren need to cut bait and get the contract signed...5/47.5 let's go.

 

[Nooodles]

Yeah yeah sure. Like yesterday.

I bet there will be an interesting chatter tomorrow as well.

 

[Notsince67]

I have always said $10.5M.

If someone makes an offer sheet for anything more than that, take the picks.

If 10.5 x 5 is a match then we can only assume that the offer of 10 x 5 was never tendered. Absolute failure on Dubas' part because it shouldnt have come to this.

 

[Mess]

That tweet was from yesterday... NJ sure are taking their time!

What if before NJ goes that route they're trying to make a trade with Toronto and perhaps offer Taylor Hall in exchange as part of a bigger trade?

The OS is always the last resort not the first resort and most GMs would prefer trades as it helps with cap management and not all GMs want to give up 4 X 1st round picks nor do Cup competing teams like the Leafs really want those picks and would prefer warm bodies instead, as they're most likely to start flipping them for actual players to help WIN NOW.

If Leafs fans could get Taylor Hall in a trade for Marner + other pieces involved would Leaf fans not prefer that options to letting Marner walk for draft picks.

PS. If I was a GM and considering a trade I would be basing that on being able to talk to Hall/Agent first and agree to a new extension first and then completing the deal. All this takes time so the threat of an OS might be the reason for any trade talks in the first place.

If Marner will not take Leafs $9.5 to $10.5 mil deal on term maybe Taylor Hall will.

 

[nuck]

Just sign the contract for 9 million Marner. There’s an interview of him as a small child of CP24 asking his what his favourite team is, he said the Toronto Maple Leafs obviously. If he wants more Leafs will need to move some contracts around. In the end it will come between greed and heart to play for the Leafs.

Let’s hope Marner has more heart than greed. Although with today’s generation of athlete, you just never know anymore.

I'm not sure if he isn't just representative of his RFA age group. All of them seem to be taking the same stance of making huge demands, more reflective of UFA than RFA money, no doubt driven by their agents who would have needed to have numerous discussions to set this up. Now they are all sitting back waiting for someone to set the market with a big number or from an offer sheet. Willie lit the fuse last summer and the subsequent ones have run with it. So is it greed or is it "pay me what I am worth"?

It seems odd to hear the NHLPA is fanning the flames on this since it will inevitable cost big money to older vets who deliver a lot less for their money than the young stars, not to mention clubs will be carrying smaller rosters to be cap compliant which effectively eliminates jobs. The vets and the bubble players outnumber the young stars and paying those RFAs "what they are worth" doesn't change the cap limits, it just takes from the larger group to give to the young stars.

Like Willie, Mitch just wants what he can get and is being told by his camp what is fair, and that it isn't his problem how the Leafs make it fit. Plus after watching KD get rag dolled by the other two they understand this is how its done. No doubt he really does want to be a Leaf but he would be receiving a lot of pressure to hold out from both his family and his agent. If his team mates, his peers, and his family all support a hard line that may be more influence than loyalty to the jersey.

 

[Notsince67]

Sandin doesn't have any.

Schedule b bonuses are reall only offered to the top draftees of a class

 

[Kurtz]

and Turkey is a semi islamist (moving towards) theological governance...apples and oranges...we have laws set through english common law etc... if they break them they go to jail (or whatever the deemed punishment is)

Maybe in theory, but we both know that this isn't really true in reality. A rich person and a poor person can break the same rule, and the poor one will go to jail while the rich will not. In the States, a while person and a black person can break the same rule, and the black person is something like 40% more likely to end up in jail. We have stats on this. There are ample other examples, like for instance North American prisons being filled with prisoners who are there for weed possession - something that you or I can indulge in with near impunity.

But I digress.

It's really easy to create a rumour of an offer-sheet, it just takes a phone call from Ferris to any media guy, and voila. Take it with a giant grain of salt.

 

[Mess]

surely you understand the flaw in your argument. We're talking offer sheets...the Matthews comparison means nothing to the Isles, or Devils, or whoever else trying to get him to sign an offer sheet. So at some point, Paul and Darren need to cut bait and get the contract signed...5/47.5 let's go.

See post #435 this thread for full explanation.

Salary Cap: - Marner contract discussion XIII

 

[ORRFForever]

Mitch Marner and the story of the Prodigal Son...

There was a General Manager with two elite players. The younger one said to the G.M., ‘Dubas, give me MORE than my share of the Salary Cap.’ So the GM did as he was asked.

Not long after that, the younger player got hurt over and over again, dogged it while UNDERproducing during the regular season, and refused to play the P.K..

Still, whenever the G.M. saw him, he was filled with compassion. He ran to his younger player, threw his arms around him and kissed him.

The younger players said to him, "I have UNDERproduced, been injured over and over again, and refused to work the PK, I am NO longer worthy to be called The Best Leaf."

But the GM said to his servants, "Quick! Bring the best robe and put it on Auston. Put a ring on his finger and sandals on his feet. Bring the fattened calf and kill it. Let’s have a feast and celebrate. For this favourite player of mine is a Leaf." So they began to celebrate.

Meanwhile, the older son was working hard on the ice. When he came to the office, he heard music and dancing. So he called one of the servants and asked him what was going on. The servant said : "The GM has killed the fattened calf because Matthews once scored 4 goals in his first game".

The older player became angry and refused to go in. So the GM went out and pleaded with him. But Marner answered the GM, "Look! All these years I’ve been slaving for you. I have produced more points. I have never gotten hurt and I have worked the PK. Yet, you've never given me a good contract so I could celebrate with my friends.

But when this player of yours who has UNDERproduced, sat on his fat ass while I work the PK, and can't stay healthy comes home, you kill the fattened calf for him!"

“‘Mitch,’ the GM said, ‘I have given all the Cap money to Auston so you are screwed. Sorry... NOT SORRY!!!"

 

[Dreakmur]

If 10.5 x 5 is a match then we can only assume that the offer of 10 x 5 was never tendered. Absolute failure on Dubas' part because it shouldnt have come to this.

What should Dubas have done? His options are to give Marner his contract demand, or slowly work him down to a more reasonable contract. Just like Nylander, Marner doesn't have to sign the contracts that Dubas offers.

 

[biotk]

Yeah, thoses ELC performance bonuses need to be taken into account.

Sandin doesn't have any.

​

That is true about Sandin. However, my main point was that even when looking at just their salaries they would cost a couple hundred grand more against the cap at a time when the Leafs likely won't have any wiggle room.

Liljegren 863K - 1.263M
Sandin 894K
Kivihalme 792K
Harpur 725K
Marincin 700K
Gravel 700K
Borgman 700K
Holl 675K

(Dermot is 863K)

Liljegren and Sandin will only provide the team with savings if they are playing in the top 4.

 

[Kiwi]

If 10.5 x 5 is a match then we can only assume that the offer of 10 x 5 was never tendered. Absolute failure on Dubas' part because it shouldnt have come to this.

Why are we offering him 10.5M×5 in the first place?
That's a **** contract at the level of Matthews **** contract

If Dubas offered that without a signed offersheet forcing his hand he's already an absolute failure because that contract is disgusting