Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[ORRFForever]

I suspect he may have received one for term but have already laid a framework with Dubas to not accept OS with term. Everyone assumes maximum drama here. The fact that he hasnt signed might just be a mutual agreement to see where the other rfas come in at.

Very true.

 

[Superstar]

I have always been a fan of taking away the second assist. Most of the time it has nothing to do with the play. In addition there should be no goals or assists awarded to a player unless the puck touches their stick... no butt goals, etc.

The close correlation between a goal and a primary assist is a self-fulfilling prophecy because a primary assist results immediately in a goal...it's simply logical...but you actually need the goal scorer to put the puck in the net.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I can't believe someone doesn't offer him $8.117M x 4.

You get Marner CHEAP, you get him for 4 years, and it doesn't cost you much - a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Marner gets UFA in 4, and the Leafs get screwed - even if they match.

Why would Marner sign that?

 

[Kiwi]

I can't believe someone doesn't offer him $8.117M x 4.

You get Marner CHEAP, you get him for 4 years, and it doesn't cost you much - a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Marner gets UFA in 4, and the Leafs get screwed - even if they match.

Nice idea, you poison pill other teams like that though every major RFA you have is getting the same treatment

GM'S aren't idiots (sometimes they are if I'm being honest), nobody wants to start setting a precedent as bad as that for the teams

Your screwing yourself and everybody knows it, then he has almost zero incentive to sign it if the numbers being thrown into the media are correct

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Nobody expected any offersheets to appear this year.

And the one that did firmly set the market.

 

[ORRFForever]

Nice idea, you poison pill other teams like that though every major RFA you have is getting the same treatment

GM'S aren't idiots (sometimes they are if I'm being honest), nobody wants to start setting a precedent as bad as that for the teams

Your screwing yourself and everybody knows it, then he has almost zero incentive to sign it if the numbers being thrown into the media are correct

True.

Still... If you were the Islanders, and Lou L was NOT in charge (he is a Bettman man, thru and thru), you might do it. Or maybe the Habs.

 

[ORRFForever]

Why would Marner sign that?

Control his own destiny in the shortest amount of time, while still getting paid a decent amount.

 

[Superstar]

If someone gave Panarin 11.6 x 7 as a UFA, I'm pretty sure one of the 30 other GMs will be willing to give 10,5 x 5 to Marner and pony up the compensation.

Real question is if Marner will have the balls to sign the OS and then deal with Toronto media circus that will ensue if Dubas matches. That's the key.

Once Marner signs an offer-sheet, he no longer has total control over where he plays...it's either Toronto or the other team...and he better be prepared to pack his bags.

 

[Superstar]

Control his own destiny in the shortest amount of time, while still getting paid a decent amount.

He doesn't control his destiny after he signs an offersheet...Toronto does.

 

[Mess]

But, internal comparables have no bearing on the offer-sheet market. If Marner goes to NJ, NYI or anyone and says.."I want Matthews money, he was on my team and I outscored him", they will say great, we didn't pay Matthews and we won't pay you that.

Which means, either Mitch accepts the Leaf's offer (whatever it is), or he seeks on offer-sheet from a team with entirely different internal comparables, which are most likely lower than Matthews and Tavares.

That's true, if Marner successfully gets an OS that he is willing to sign then that team didn't make that offer based on Marner using Matthews as his comparable, but rather at what price point they thought they could steal him away from Toronto at.

Both the bolded conditions above must be true.

Because Marner is also not going to sign an OS for less than he believes he is worth so Mitch is still using Matthews indirectly in that process when he is setting his asking price from another team. The other team doesn't care as to how he arrived at his price point, they're only concerned at what price point they can successfully force Toronto not to match it & Mitch to sign it. There are no player comparables involved at all just the $$ and draft pick compensation levels in this decision making process.

Leafs would instantly match an OS at $10.5 mil not because they like the $$ nor the term, but because the 2 X 1st + 2nd and 3rd round picks would not be enough to let him walk over. So Marner and his agent know $10.5 mi X 5 year OS is the bare minimum he would sign, which guarantees him + $2 mil more than Aho OS $8.5 mil just got.

However if another team really wants to steal him away that means their # must be >$11 mil or more, to have any chance of success of the Leafs walking away and taking the picks instead, because that OS $$ amount is too much to fit into Leafs own internal salary cap by matching.

So his $11 mil to resign with the Leafs because of AM and JT internal salary cap OR $11+ mil is his OS asking price that he is willing to sign. However as far as Mitch is concerned he didn't need to use Matthews as a comparable to get his $11 mil or > AAV OS but he still ends up at the same end point regardless.

 

[MyBudJT]

Once Marner signs an offer-sheet, he no longer has total control over where he plays...it's either Toronto or the other team...and he better be prepared to pack his bags.

10.5 is okay value for Marner considering Nylander is getting 7 and Matthews is getting 11.634

 

[Superstar]

Personally, I hope a team calls Dubas (like Burke dealt with Boston) and says we're making an offer on Marner do you wan to talk?

Columbus? Werenski or Jones? Sure!

 

[ORRFForever]

He doesn't control his destiny after he signs an offersheet...Toronto does.

True, but if Toronto matches, they match/agree to 4 years - and he gets his UFA in the shortest amount of time.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

And the one that did firmly set the market.

So he makes a few million less than Aho over four years in order to get to ufa one year earlier?

Isn't he demanding Matthews money over 5 years? He's going to take twelve million less than his ask over 4 years in order to get to ufa one year earlier?

It makes absolutely no sense.

 

[taurine330]

What do Lindros, Orr, Bossy, Bure, Lemieux have in common? Do Marner and Dubas recognize this?

What?

 

[Superstar]

True, but if Toronto matches, they match/agree to 4 years - and he gets his UFA in the shortest amount of time.

If he only wants to play in Toronto, he should never sign an offer-sheet...it's in his best interest to work out a deal with the Leafs.

 

[BodaciousBeefBazooka]

When is this goof signing?

 

[ORRFForever]

So he makes a few million less than Aho over four years in order to get to ufa one year earlier?

Isn't he demanding Matthews money over 5 years? He's going to take twelve million less than his ask over 4 years in order to get to ufa one year earlier?

It makes absolutely no sense.

All true.

I was just musing : IF he wanted to be vindictive(!) and show the Leafs he controls his future, he might take the money hit.

 

[Superstar]

When is this goof signing?

He'll make his decision after the helicopter chase...

 

[ORRFForever]

If he only wants to play in Toronto, he should never sign an offer-sheet...it's in his best interest to work out a deal with the Leafs.

I agree.

Everything has been analyzed to death. I just went off on a tangent to "offer" something different in this thread.

 

[MattySnipes]

When dealing with a claim that goals are more important or predictive than primary assists, i have no problem putting some numbers around it to speak to the data. Data is useful for sure. Anecdotally i can say that my observation of Marner game in and game out tells me he is better than Matthews. If you bring up goals....well you cant have it both ways.

I've been observing your posts in this thread and I won't lie I am not a professional stats guy or in the field but I can definitely appreciate how you're comparing them (Marner vs. Matthews).

It's very interesting to say the least. Marner in terms of primary assists (playmaker), Matthews (goals). I know Marner was right among the top last year in terms of primary production.

I am positive they would use this in negotiations. "Hey Kyle, you're paying Auston for being an elite goal scorer, time to pay me for producing elite primary production."

The difference in the correlation coefficient is also interesting. I don't seem to know what it all means in the end but good on you for finding an interesting way to compare them even more. Not saying it's right or wrong, but it is interesting.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

That's true, if Marner successfully gets an OS that he is willing to sign then that team didn't make that offer based on Marner using Matthews as his comparable, but rather at what price point they thought they could steal him away from Toronto at.

Both the bolded conditions above must be true.

Because Marner is also not going to sign an OS for less than he believes he is worth so Mitch is still using Matthews indirectly in that process when he is setting his asking price from another team. The other team doesn't care as to how he arrived at his price point, they're only concerned at what price point they can successfully force Toronto not to match it. There are no player comparables involved at all just the $$ and draft pick compensation levels in this decision making process.

Leafs would instantly match an OS at $10.5 mil not because they like the $$ nor the term, but because the 2 X 1st + 2nd and 3rd round picks would not be enough to let him walk over. So Marner and his agent know $10.5 mi X 5 year OS is the bare minimum he would sign, which guarantees him + $2 mil more than Aho OS $8.5 mil just got.

However if another teams really wants to steal him away that means their # must be >$11 mil or more, to have any chance of success of the Leafs walking away and taking the picks instead, because that OS $$ amount is too much to fit into Leafs own internal salary cap.

So his $11 mil to resign with the Leafs because of AM and JT OR $11+ mil is his OS asking price he is willing to sign. However as far as Mitch is concerned he didn't need to use Matthews as a comparable to get his $11 mil or > AAV OS but he still ends up at the same end point regardless.

But you yourself keep saying how important internal cap structures are.

Wouldn't heavily overpaying Mitch Marner via offer sheet ruin the teams internal cap structure? And that's not even considering the four 1st round picks...

It's insanity. There is no way it's happening.

Aho happened at a price that wouldn't ruin Montreals internal cap structure, and at the cost of only 1 first round pick, not 4.

 

[Marshy]

Do you ever sleep?

The fire alarm malfunctioned in the house in the middle of the night. Couldn't get back to sleep.

 

[ORRFForever]

I've been observing your posts in this thread and I won't lie I am not a professional stats guy or in the field but I can definitely appreciate how you're comparing them (Marner vs. Matthews).

It's very interesting to say the least. Marner in terms of primary assists (playmaker), Matthews (goals). I know Marner was right among the top last year in terms of primary production.

I am positive they would use this in negotiations. "Hey Kyle, you're paying Auston for being an elite goal scorer, time to pay me for producing elite primary production."

The difference in the correlation coefficient is also interesting. I don't seem to know what it all means in the end but good on you for finding an interesting way to compare them even more. Not saying it's right or wrong, but it is interesting.

At the end of the day, Mitch is VERY good and we want him here.

I hope Dubas finds a way to make it work, even if he has to overpay.

 

[ORRFForever]

The fire alarm malfunctioned in the house in the middle of the night. Couldn't get back to sleep.

LOL!