Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[The Hanging Jowl]

It's July 6th. There's supposedly been an offer sheet imminent in at least 4 of the past 6 days. Where's the offer sheet?

We have no idea if he's received offer sheets. We have no idea if he has any interest in truly signing one. The most likely situation is the Marner camp is using the OS process exclusively to demonstrate his market value and that opens the risk that he'll either be right or wrong about his value. In either scenario, if he ends up signing with the Leafs, I find it highly unlikely we'll ever know what really happened in this regard.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Personally, I hope a team calls Dubas (like Burke dealt with Boston) and says we're making an offer on Marner do you wan to talk?

I also have pondered how long this drags out, and the ramifications if it did. Wonder how good it would really be if Marner does what Nylander did and signs last minute?

An offer sheet would be a drag, but it would end the saga. Got to wonder how much the MLSE/Shanny/Dubas really worry about an offer sheet? Would it be enough to get them to compromise? By compromise, I'm defining it as Dubas/Shanny offering more than they were initially envisioning.

 

[Mess]

If someone gave Panarin 11.6 x 7 as a UFA, I'm pretty sure one of the 30 other GMs will be willing to give 10,5 x 5 to Marner and pony up the compensation.

Real question is if Marner will have the balls to sign the OS and then deal with Toronto media circus that will ensue if Dubas matches. That's the key.

Not sure about Marner getting a $10.5 mil X 5 deal personally.

Reason the compensation is 2 X 1st, and 2nd and 3rd.

If I were a GM considering OS Marner, I would call up Dubas first, and ask will he trade Marner to me for 2 X 1st, 2nd and 3rd (matching comp picks) and with the likely answer being NO, then I would know he would match any offersheet at that level which would be a waist on time making one.

So if some team is really going to OS Marner it would likely have to be at a level they believe the Leafs will not match or will not trade him to them. An OS is like the last resort whereas trying to work out a successful trade would likely occur first.

Dubas might be more inclined to deal Marner for roster players and prospects/picks instead of just 4 X future 1sts if he feels he can't resign him himself. IMO

 

[ULF_55]

i have a hard time seeing that play out. At the root of this is marner looking for a contract in the matthews range (supposedly). A team would need to on the low end be prepared to overpay marner in salary and part with 4 x first round picks. if they wanted to make a trade, they would need to still be willing to overpay on salary since marner is unsigned and then give up tangible players that will likely be more valuable then a first round pick. that would make a team less competitive even with bringing in marner since it would gut the supporting cast and mess up the cap structure.

as an example, lets say lou called up dubas and said he was thinking about offer sheet marner, would dubas prefer to trade him instead of going the offer sheet route,

marner to resign is likely going to cost of $10 million/year so with barzal needed to get extended next season he will be looking for even more since he puts up similar level points + plays the premium position.

options instead of 1st round picks could be something like dobson, bellows and bailey. In a trade situation, i cannot see dubas taking much less then that.

I don't think it would have to be a bottom feeder, or team with a lot of cap space or based on prospects.

Columbus: Werenski and Anderson
St. Louis: Tarasenko and Dunn, a pick
Minnesota: Dumba, Greenway, a pick
...
Now I don't suggest any of those are reasonable, just that it could be a team looking for a change. There are good players on all teams, but only one team wins.
You don't need 3 superstars to win.

 

[YearsintheWilderness]

Marner and his band of merry morons may have unwittingly achieved the worst of both worlds. He may have elicited one or more offer sheets without any intention of signing one (and instead only to use it/them to show to Leafs management what he supposedly thinks he's worth).

In the process, he will have engendered the rightful contempt of the Leafs organization and never gained the leverage he thought the offer sheet process would give him. It's almost useless as a bargaining tool unless the player is willing to sign it and roll the dice.

 

[gabeliscious]

I don't think it would have to be a bottom feeder, or team with a lot of cap space or based on prospects.

Columbus: Werenski and Anderson
St. Louis: Tarasenko and Dunn, a pick
Minnesota: Dumba, Greenway, a pick
...
Now I don't suggest any of those are reasonable, just that it could be a team looking for a change. There are good players on all teams, but only one team wins.
You don't need 3 superstars to win.

i think if a team was discussing a trade over an offer sheet dubas would entertain it if the deal made the team better in his opinion (similar to kadri for barrie and kerfoot). i just think it would be a complicated situation because i dont think marner actually wants to leave toronto. leafs could trade his rights but if it is a team he doesnt want to go to he may flat out refuse to sign. so the only way it could happen is if a team knew definitively they could sign him. this was part of the issue with nylander last year. several teams were kicking tires on trading for him but as an unsigned rfa they didnt want to have the hassle of having to sign him.

 

[ULF_55]

Marner and his band of merry morons may have unwittingly achieved the worst of both worlds. He may have elicited one or more offer sheets without any intention of signing one (and instead only to use it/them to show to Leafs management as a sign of what he supposedly thinks he's worth).

In the process, he will have engendered the rightful contempt of the Leafs organization and never gained the leverage he thought the offer sheet process would give him. It's almost useless as a bargaining tool unless the player is willing to sign it and roll the dice.

Tough one.

Leafs are getting valuable assets for their 4th. overall draft pick in 2015.

Could be Marner, could be 4 1st. round picks, could be some very good players.

If he's signed, he can't get a NTC for several years, so having shown his stripes Leafs wouldn't feel any undo loyalty to retain him. With an offer-sheet they keep him for a year at a minimum.

 

[ORRFForever]

He'll get around 10.5 x 5 . No way he accepts 2+ millions less than Matthews on the same term, especially after his clan saying he feels he's worth as much as him.

If Dubas does not give it to him, someone else will. 2 x 1st, 2nd, 3rd is a bargain for a player like him.

Only thing is he said he really wants to be a Leaf, and it is his childhood team. He must really be sure before signing an offersheet with someone else, because even if Dubas matches, he'll be constantly reminded by the media/fans that he did choose to play with another team. It might turn into a circus.

I'm sure he'll get an offersheet in the 10.5 x 5 range, but I'm not as sure he'll be willing to sign it with all the consequences that would come with it. He has to make believe Dubas he's ready to do it if he wants to get that 10+ x 5 y deal with the Leafs, though.

Interesting times! Bluff, or not?

I agree with you but I can't believe, to make this go away, Dubas isn't willing to give Marner a extra million. If I'm Dubas, I sit Marner down and say :

"You want $11.65M. We're offering $9.5M. The best I can do is meet you half way at $10.5M. We will NOT go higher than that. EVER!

If you don't sign by end of July, our best offer drops to $10.25M. If you are not here for training camp, it drops to $10M. Once the season starts, $9.5M - prorated.

If you want more that $10.5M, you need to go elsewhere - assuming someone gives you an offer sheet, but the extra money will not be worth losing your dream of playing for the Leafs."

… and leave it at that. I'd also make it public.

If someone makes him an offer sheet at $10.147M, at any point, match it, but stand you guns and take the picks if it is higher than that.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

I don't think it would have to be a bottom feeder, or team with a lot of cap space or based on prospects.

Columbus: Werenski and Anderson
St. Louis: Tarasenko and Dunn, a pick
Minnesota: Dumba, Greenway, a pick
...
Now I don't suggest any of those are reasonable, just that it could be a team looking for a change. There are good players on all teams, but only one team wins.
You don't need 3 superstars to win.

I've been a huge advocate of us getting greenway. Would love him on the leafs

 

[Bigmarycombo]

It’s July 6 and what have we really learned

The pundits have pulled numbers out of their ass
The pundits have pulled offer sheets out of their ass
They all start each sentence with I believe.

Not once have I heard Ferris told me he wants 12 million for Mitch to sign
Not once have I heard Ferris told me that he is getting offer sheets for Mitch
Not once have a heard dubas told me that Mitch is asking for too much

Again every pundit says I believe which basically means this is my opinion and I can insert any bullshit idea I want to make myself relevant.

Worry when the season is about to start. No one know what either side is offering or how far apart they are.

Stop with the stupid trades. We should trade him for Seth Jones.
We should trade him for Tkachuk
We should trade him for provorov
Just stop with the nonsense.these players are valuable to their own teams and are not for trade.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

If someone gave Panarin 11.6 x 7 as a UFA, I'm pretty sure one of the 30 other GMs will be willing to give 10,5 x 5 to Marner and pony up the compensation.

Real question is if Marner will have the balls to sign the OS and then deal with Toronto media circus that will ensue if Dubas matches. That's the key.

Then why was 8.5x5 the best offer Aho could find? While Marner scores a bit more points, Aho is a center who scores more goals.

Why does your argument not apply to Aho?

 

[ULF_55]

i think if a team was discussing a trade over an offer sheet dubas would entertain it if the deal made the team better in his opinion (similar to kadri for barrie and kerfoot). i just think it would be a complicated situation because i dont think marner actually wants to leave toronto. leafs could trade his rights but if it is a team he doesnt want to go to he may flat out refuse to sign. so the only way it could happen is if a team knew definitively they could sign him. this was part of the issue with nylander last year. several teams were kicking tires on trading for him but as an unsigned rfa they didnt want to have the hassle of having to sign him.

Definitely it would have to be a team that he would sign with, but I'm guessing they already would know how much money Marner wants.
Money is what this is all about.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

It’s July 6 and what have we really learned

The pundits have pulled numbers out of their ass
The pundits have pulled offer sheets out of their ass
They all start each sentence with I believe.

Not once have I heard Ferris told me he wants 12 million for Mitch to sign
Not once have I heard Ferris told me that he is getting offer sheets for Mitch
Not once have a heard dubas told me that Mitch is asking for too much

Again every pundit says I believe which basically means this is my opinion and I can insert any bull**** idea I want to make myself relevant.

Worry when the season is about to start. No one know what either side is offering or how far apart they are.

Stop with the stupid trades. We should trade him for Seth Jones.
We should trade him for Tkachuk
We should trade him for provorov
Just stop with the nonsense.these players are valuable to their own teams and are not for trade.

BRAVO! Well said!

 

[Bomber0104]

I agree with you but I can't believe, to make this go away, Dubas isn't willing to give Marner $10M+. If I'm Dubas, I sit Marner down and say :

"You want $11.65M. We're offering $9.5M. The best I can do is meet you half way at $10.5M. We will NOT go higher than that. EVER!

If you don't sign by end of July, our best offer drops to $10.25M. If you are not here for training camp, it drops to $10M. Once the season starts, $9.5M - prorated.

If you want more that $10.5M, you need to go elsewhere - assuming someone gives you an offer sheet, but the extra money will not be worth losing your dream of playing for the Leafs."

… and leave it at that.

Except you wouldn't "say" that's the best you can do. You negotiate to that point.

Otherwise that's the new starting point and now you're negotiating between $10.5M and $11.63...

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Some of you posters should be ashamed to call yourself leaf fans.
You are vilifying a22 year old superstar on false information from pundits who have their head up their ass and spew out garbage that you take as facts. Use your brain an$ relax and let this take its course.

Both the leafs and mariners camp are negotiating what they are allowed under the cab they signed. Their is lots of time to negotiate.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Definitely it would have to be a team that he would sign with, but I'm guessing they already would know how much money Marner wants.
Money is what this is all about.

Just Paul and Mitch hangin' out....

 

[ORRFForever]

Except you wouldn't "say" that's the best you can do. You negotiate to that point.

Otherwise that's the new starting point and now you're negotiating between $10.5M and $11.63...

No. I say $10.5M is the Max and stand by it. That way he knows where you stand and you set a precedence with other players - you're blunt, honest and you do NOT move.

I'd also make it public. That way, the press/fans know, and the whole thing is in Marner's hands. He can do with it what he wants.

 

[Bomber0104]

No. I say $10.5M is the Max and stand by it. That way he knows where you stand and you set a precedence with other players - you're blunt, honest and you don't move.

Then why even mention $9.5 in the first place?

Now they know they can get $10.5 and they'll try to move Dubas off that number into the $11-range.

 

[ORRFForever]

Then why even mention $9.5 in the first place?

Now they know they can get $10.5 and they'll try to move Dubas off that number into the $11-range.

I disagree.

I only mention it so HE and the public know that the Leafs have compromised to sign the prodigal son. After that, come hell or high water, I stick to my guns/statement.

 

[MLSE]

I agree with you but I can't believe, to make this go away, Dubas isn't willing to give Marner a extra million. If I'm Dubas, I sit Marner down and say :

"You want $11.65M. We're offering $9.5M. The best I can do is meet you half way at $10.5M. We will NOT go higher than that. EVER!

If you don't sign by end of July, our best offer drops to $10.25M. If you are not here for training camp, it drops to $10M. Once the season starts, $9.5M - prorated.

If you want more that $10.5M, you need to go elsewhere - assuming someone gives you an offer sheet, but the extra money will not be worth losing your dream of playing for the Leafs."

… and leave it at that. I'd also make it public.

If someone makes him an offer sheet at $10.147M, at any point, match it, but stand you guns and take the picks if it is higher than that.

Thats the way to treat a player! Awesome choice. He totally would come back as a UFA too!

Make it public also? Dammnn players would love to come play for you

 

[nuck]

If someone gave Panarin 11.6 x 7 as a UFA, I'm pretty sure one of the 30 other GMs will be willing to give 10,5 x 5 to Marner and pony up the compensation.

Real question is if Marner will have the balls to sign the OS and then deal with Toronto media circus that will ensue if Dubas matches. That's the key.

$11.6 vs $10.5 plus your next four 1sts are not at all the same thing. 4 x 1 is worth a lot more than $1M. Plus the extra two years in the Panarin deal means you have bought his entire prime. More years costs higher AAV. I do think Mitch has the balls for the right price though.

 

[ORRFForever]

Thats the way to treat a player! Awesome choice. He totally would come back as a UFA too!

Make it public also? Dammnn players would love to come play for you

But being soft doesn't work, either - and it's gotten us into the mess.

If I was a player, I would prefer a GM who is 100% honest so I know where I stand.

In life, no one can ever fault you for being honest.

 

[ORRFForever]

I use to negotiate quite a bit in my business life.

At first, companies bidding for my business would play games. They'd offer A and then come back with A-1 and then A-2, etc.

I eventually said, "I am NOT looking to negotiate. Everyone gets to make ONE offer. Make it your BEST offer because you will NOT get a 2nd chance."

For me, being honest worked.

 

[Bomber0104]

I disagree.

I only mention it so HE and the public know that the Leafs have compromised to sign the prodigal son. After that, come hell or high water, I stick to my guns/statement.

I think the initial offer of $9.5M is completely fair and there's a lot of evidence to suggest that's what Marner should be paid.

All's I'm saying is you don't make an offer of that and then simultaneously tell them you can also give them more...

 

[ShaneFalco]

Oh he does end up signing for big coin and if he doesn’t produce ...... there have been stretches he’s been invisible. Just ask Minus Mitch