Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

[Advanced stats]

I'm hearing speculation that Darren Dreger IS an insider.

Can not confirm that. Seems more like a rat than an insider at this point.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Matthews was willing to negotiate during the season Dregs

The guy has no integrity

 

[WTFMAN99]

I've seen two different mathematically derived conclusions on Marner, for eight year money. They took previous contracts, and back calculated them, to come up with formulas to predict where this years RFA's and UFA's would end up signing for. One ended up at $9.1 and the other at $9.6.

Haven't seen the model for a while but I think there is some extra inflation compared to the norm.

I can't fathom 9.5M x3 years but it is Dreger and we all know how spot on he was about those Mitch Marner offer sheets.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's a business and the players are depreciating assets.

That's why you want the team to do well, unless they're the Whalers or Atlanta Flames the team is going to be there.

Players are temps.

So did Dubas suggest they'd also use Hyman's LTIR to sign marner? So they're covered up to about 13 million at least until middle of November?

I think we all want the team to do well, that's a given.

As far as Hyman goes, wut?

 

[4thline]

Gotta think/hope that that is a Marner camp number. Come a little down and we're fine.

"Fair" range on a 3 year would be ~7.5-8.2 based on Panarin's two year + and Kane's 5 year. Elite talent is more scarce than cap space, so I'd be fine with going .5-.7 or so above that to get a deal done.

 

[Nooodles]

Matthews was willing to negotiate during the season Dregs

This motherf***er joke got me blocked on twitter and I'm actually happy for it.

What a freaking loser he is.

 

[Fogelhund]

Haven't seen the model for a while but I think there is some extra inflation compared to the norm.

I can't fathom 9.5M x3 years but it is Dreger and we all know how spot on he was about those Mitch Marner offer sheets.

We can take those players already signed, and extrapolate some above normal inflation if desired. I think it comes out to about $10.2 to 10.3.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Gotta think/hope that that is a Marner camp number. Come a little down and we're fine.

"Fair" range on a 3 year would be ~7.5-8.2 based on Panarin's two year + and Kane's 5 year. Elite talent is more scarce than cap space, so I'd be fine with going .5-.7 or so above that to get a deal done.

7.5M x3 years is acceptable, prefer 2 years but if it's 3 years at 7.5M, I can live with that. I'd be willing to see 7.75M if it got it done but anything above that is a no because I don't see the logic in it. I like comparables and precedent.

The 9.5M was brutal to hear, 7.5M was the 3 year number I had in mind immediately.

We can take those players already signed, and extrapolate some above normal inflation if desired. I think it comes out to about $10.2 to 10.3.

I figured 10.5M x 8 years and 9.5-10M on 7 year deal.

4-5 yrs aren't options.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Rogers Sportsnet NHL insider Chris Johnston joins the Starting Lineup to explain why he sees the Maple Leafs making a concerted effort to sign RFA Mitch Marner prior to September 12th, when training camp officially opens.

 

[PromisedLand]

I apologize is this has been posted previously, but NHL20 has come out with their player rankings.

Clearly this is definitive ranking on what a player is worth, so Marner should just accept that he isn't worth Matthews, and play hockey. [sarcasm]

so nylander is not in the top 50? incoming hot takes from nylander fans in 3...2...1....

 

[Kiwi]

Seriously.

I would literally rather not having Mitch Marner signed this season vs signing him to a historically bad contract.

So would I but I've got a bad feeling Dubas won't feel the same way

"Dreger is on fire this afternoon"

Oh don't worry, I'm sure there's a lot of us who wish he was on fire

He's an absolute shill, his Twitter is hilarious though
People are having some fun now

LOL @ 9.5 being "8 year money".

LOL @ 9.5M being "3 year money"

 

[4thline]

7.5M x3 years is acceptable, prefer 2 years but if it's 3 years at 7.5M, I can live with that. I'd be willing to see 7.75M if it got it done but anything above that is a no because I don't see the logic in it. I like comparables and precedent.

Comparables and precedent deal to ~7.8 x 3, and for wage negotiations fair is a window - not a pinpoint so +/- 5%, which leads to any where ~7.41 to ~8.19 being within range of fair.

 

[hamzarocks]

Was in Pakistan for the past 6 weeks so barely kept us with leafs news. Did anything happen on the marner front. Any scheduled public meetings with dubas flying to meet marner face to face, any reliable numbers thrown out? Or is it still the same wait and see game with no concrete timeline for a marner signing.

 

[Fogelhund]

so nylander is not in the top 50? incoming hot takes from nylander fans in 3...2...1....

He isn't in the top 50 in Salary Cap hits either... and that's before any of the current RFA's sign.

 

[Nineteen67]

Matthews was willing to negotiate during the season Dregs

Really? Seriously?

 

[Fogelhund]

Was in Pakistan for the past 6 weeks so barely kept us with leafs news. Did anything happen on the marner front. Any scheduled public meetings with dubas flying to meet marner face to face, any reliable numbers thrown out? Or is it still the same wait and see game with no concrete timeline for a marner signing.

Nothing of real news.

 

[Nineteen67]

Rogers Sportsnet NHL insider Chris Johnston joins the Starting Lineup to explain why he sees the Maple Leafs making a concerted effort to sign RFA Mitch Marner prior to September 12th, when training camp officially opens.

Without Kypreos and MacLean feeding him information this guy will be lost all year.

 

[al secord]

Was in Pakistan for the past 6 weeks so barely kept us with leafs news. Did anything happen on the marner front. Any scheduled public meetings with dubas flying to meet marner face to face, any reliable numbers thrown out? Or is it still the same wait and see game with no concrete timeline for a marner signing.

What? I heard Steve Dangle is huge in Lahore?

 

[PromisedLand]

I don't see how we can watch Sebastian Aho get 8.5M x 5 years, and then give Mitch Marner 1M more on the AAV for 2 less seasons.

I mean, their respective PPG's over the last two seasons are very close, & Aho scores more goals, on a less offensive powered team, and Aho is Carolina's best player, and their top line center.


9.5M x 3 years is hard to even consider defending.

that is a really stupid tweet from dreger on which people are losing their kahunaas on

if 9.5 is for 3 years is true at all; it is only acceptable if the third year salary is in the range of 9 to 10 million i.e. no big signing bonuses and potentially no money paid to sit in case of a lockout

 

[Notsince67]

Huh? I think you are missing the months of Dreger, Paul marner and Ferris insanity.

That’s the point. He isn’t rational. He threatens to move players to Europe and loses. On what planet should we know Paul marners name. He isn’t Walter Gretzky. He cries on tv about how is son isn’t captain. His agent talks to the media about how he didn’t get a bonus 3 years ago.

They aren’t rational.

What I think and what I think Ferris thinks are
2 very different things.

They might not be rational but lying is a different story. There was quite obviously an offer last summer because Ferris said there was a lowball. It is also hard to believe that the Marner camp would have called a 8.5 to 9mm x 8 a lowball back then. To your point...possibly insufficient but most certainly not a lowball.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Comparables and precedent deal to ~7.8 x 3, and for wage negotiations fair is a window - not a pinpoint so +/- 5%, which leads to any where ~7.41 to ~8.19 being within range of fair.

As I have seen Aho get 5 years 8.5M, I can't reasonably accept anything starting with an 8 on a 3 year deal with Marner.

 

[PromisedLand]

He isn't in the top 50 in Salary Cap hits either... and that's before any of the current RFA's sign.

he is 37th overall in the league in terms of total salary for this upcoming season though

 

[FMichael]

I'm not very impressed that all of our young star players seem to be money first, team second kind of guys, many here will argue that this is the norm but I don't see it like that. Its getting harder and harder to be attached to players in this league when they blatantly care more about a few million more $$ than a shot at becoming a god and winning a cup. Because Mitch Marner's life will be so much different with 12 million in his pocket every year vs 9 million.

These are the kind of athletes we want our children to look up to? time to tell the kids their favourite players don't give a crap about them or their support as fans. BARF.

I agree, but to the players - it's nothing personal - it's only 'business' which to be fair - it's their right within the CBA...Like I said - I agree it's $$$ first - Cups second, but we all knew that when Shanny/Dubas commented last summer on keeping this core together, and to make it all work with 'team friendly contracts', and Matthews/Marner reacted with - 'this is why we have agents'.

Got a soft spot for the Leafs...I hope it works out for them, and they can hoist the Cup in the spring...Next summer will even be more challenging given how many UFA/RFA Dmen they'll need to deal with.

 

[Nineteen67]

that is a really stupid tweet from dreger on which people are losing their kahunaas on

if 9.5 is for 3 years is true at all; it is only acceptable if the third year salary is in the range of 9 to 10 million i.e. no big signing bonuses and potentially no money paid to sit in case of a lockout

Regardless of term and $ most of it it will be paid in signing bonus.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

I dont frankly care what they pay him. Leafs are lucky to have him
This Kucherov thing has been done to death. Kucherov is underpaid period. If he were on the Market right at this moment, he would get the highest contract in the NHL He could command over 13MM no problem. He has a no movement clause so he can keep to lower taxes. Repeating things over and over again just doesn't make it any more convincing

So...just want to be clear here...are you advocating blowing the cap out to give Marner "whatever he wants"...just want to know how seriously to take your comments lol