Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

[BlueForever75]

Marner camp has no leverage. None at all.

Players like Point and Rantanen will sign deals soon which will then put them with even less to none leverage.

I agree with the posters above. Offer him a short term and long term deal. There is no negotiating. He either takes it or leaves it. Once the other players sign his deals are off the table.

Simple. The Leafs can easily go out and trade for another scoring winger in his absence. If Marner chooses at that point to sign an offer sheet, the Leafs don't need to match it. Take the picks and run.

Later Mitch. No need for you and your father with the Leafs. Say good bye to your endorsement deals. Unless you go to Montreal or some other Canadian market you become second or third in the pecking order behind baseball, football and basketball stars..

 

[janesy12]

I feel like all the other players/agents waiting on Marner will begin to abandon that plan in the next week. Once a few of the high end RFA's sign, that'll give Dubas even more ammunition to keep the Marner family below their foolish demands.

Say if Rantanen, Point, Tkachuk, Connor, Laine all sign now at $9.5 or below (I'd imagine they all will). It certainly helps the Leafs case in keeping his cost down.

 

[BlueForever75]

I feel like all the other players/agents waiting on Marner will begin to abandon that plan in the next week. Once a few of the high end RFA's sign, that'll give Dubas even more ammunition to keep the Marner family below their foolish demands.

Say if Rantanen, Point, Tkachuk, Connor, Laine all sign now at $9.5 or below (I'd imagine they all will). It certainly helps the Leafs case in keeping his cost down.

TB only has just under 9 million to sign Point. Laine isn't in the same tier as Marner unfortunately. Rantanen on the other hand, he is a great comparable to Marner. He too has inflated stats playing on possibly the best line in the league with Mackinnon and Landeskogg. His number will drive Marner's number cause as I explained earlier in this thread, Marner's stats are inflated by playing with Tavares as he has proven over his career. He makes players better not Marner.

 

[Nineteen67]

He doesn't hold the cards anymore. No os threats, playing overseas? Whatever.....
If there's no sign and trade to be had, set a deadline, and let him sit

If Marner broke his leg in game 1 would the season for the Leafs be over? No, he's one player.

Do you think the The Leafs would play the season with 10 million in unused cap? As soon as the Leafs use their cap space on some other player other teams will sweep in with sweet deals knowing the Leafs can’t match.

Or he could sit.

Either way, Marner’s choice because he holds the cards.

 

[Nineteen67]

Why wouldn't the new team sign him?
They wouldn't trade for him without talking to his agent about his ask.
If the ask is appropriate they trade for him.
If the ask isn't appropriate he isn't worth his ask.
He'll be rich, eventually, whether he plays this season or not.
Leafs will be rich whether he plays or not.
He's just an asset with a limited lifetime value.

Exactly...if he won’t sign the Leafs can’t trade him....he holds the cards

 

[Legion34]

This isnt logical. I would suggest you think a logical number through instead of trying to argue something as absurd as 15mm. A dispassionate view would not get us a number higher than Matthews. You are just trying to snuff out any culpability of Dubas instead of having an honest discussion. Emotions do this. Ceding a point that Dubas miscalculated is not the end of the world when it is so obvious that he likely did. A better point is that he isnt the first nor the last. Adding Willy , Sparks and AM to the mix of that mistake is what buries him a bit.

Huh? I think you are missing the months of Dreger, Paul marner and Ferris insanity.

That’s the point. He isn’t rational. He threatens to move players to Europe and loses. On what planet should we know Paul marners name. He isn’t Walter Gretzky. He cries on tv about how is son isn’t captain. His agent talks to the media about how he didn’t get a bonus 3 years ago.

They aren’t rational.

What I think and what I think Ferris thinks are
2 very different things.

 

[ULF_55]

Exactly...if he won’t sign the Leafs can’t trade him....he holds the cards

Leafs hold the money.

This is about money.

 

[Nineteen67]

He holds no cards anymore. If the holdout lasts into the season, he gets traded. Or sits the season And right now, the Leafs can match up to 4 first round picks.

Why would he wait to sign an offer sheet for less than he could sign for right now? People need to use a little common sense here.

Sign in November for 9.5 *3 with a 12 million in year three.
He’s forcing the Leafs to keep their cap space available to prevent that scenario.

 

[Macman]

Get in a friggin' room and don't come out until this is signed. I don't understand why this is so difficult.

 

[Mess]

If you have leverage to get an amount based on the market's willingness to give you that amount it is not an overpayment.

Nobody is willing to give Marner his $10.5-$11 mil he is seeking via OS so how come that same principle doesn't apply in reverse as leverage for Dubas to use?

We use to think a potential OS at $10.5 mil X 5 leverage ( 2x1st +2nd + 3rd comp picks) for Marner made that his base ask for the Leafs, but without an OS that leverage doesn't exist.

Aho's OS amount ($8.45 mil X 5) should be evidence that Marner should be coming in at that range as his comparable comp based on a valid OS setting the market price.

If Dubas gives Marner his $10.5 mil ask without leverage, it could be considered a $2 mil AAV/year overpayement if his market setting comp OS is @ $8.5 mil range.

Generational franchise #1C can write their own meal tickets, and Matthews plans on using that in 5 years to make his AAV > $15 mil whether that is with the Leafs or somewhere else.

 

[Nineteen67]

Leafs hold the money.

This is about money.

Yes and he’s dictating how they use it

 

[BlueForever75]

Do you think the The Leafs would play the season with 10 million in unused cap? As soon as the Leafs use their cap space on some other player other teams will sweep in with sweet deals knowing the Leafs can’t match.

Or he could sit.

Either way, Marner’s choice because he holds the cards.

But if the Leafs better their team with that 10 million and have 4 first rounders to boot. I don't think Dubas and company will have a problem with that either.

Just imagine how powerful 1st round picks are!!!! Who is going to go out and offer him that contract???? NYI, Columbus, Vancouver, Ottawa, Carolina???? I would allow every single one of those teams to offer sheet Marner. I would take the picks and run.

Use the 1st rounders to replace Marner and even more. Its called asset management.

 

[Nineteen67]

But if the Leafs better their team with that 10 million and have 4 first rounders to boot. I don't think Dubas and company will have a problem with that either.

Just imagine how powerful 1st round picks are!!!! Who is going to go out and offer him that contract???? NYI, Columbus, Vancouver, Ottawa, Carolina???? I would allow every single one of those teams to offer sheet Marner. I would take the picks and run.

Use the 1st rounders to replace Marner and even more. Its called asset management.

Where do the four first rounders come from?

 

[BlueForever75]

Yes and he’s dictating how they use it

Not by a long shot. Have you seen what Dubas has done with this team? Even if we go into the season with 10 million in cap space and Marner doesn't sign. It hasn't limited Dubas at all. We solidified our defense and depth already. Marner's camp isn't holding any cards in this one.

 

[BlueForever75]

Where do the four first rounders come from?

Who ever OS him? But only a handful of teams that have the picks to do something like this. And the cap room.

In the end I really don't care. Leafs have upgraded their team with or without Marner. He can sit all year I don't care. Leafs hold the cards not Marner.

 

[kb]

Sign in November for 9.5 *3 with a 12 million in year three.
He’s forcing the Leafs to keep their cap space available to prevent that scenario.

Sorry, they don't have any cap space. They only have LTIR room, which dwindles daily. And it's only the LTIR room that allows the Leafs to sign him. Marner loses more every day he's unsigned. The Leafs can't sign that deal in November. The LTIR room won't be there

Which brings me back to the original point. Why would he sign in season for less than he can right now?

 

[Marshy]

Marner's holding the cards but they're a pair of 7s and queen high.

Only Paul think's he's got a full house, aces over kings.

 

[moon111]

Do the Leafs make more money with or without Marner?

 

[Nineteen67]

Sorry, they don't have any cap space. They only have LTIR room, which dwindles daily. And it's only the LTIR room that allows the Leafs to sign him. Marner loses more every day he's unsigned. The Leafs can't sign that deal in November. The LTIR room won't be there

Which brings me back to the original point. Why would he sign in season for less than he can right now?

If Marner wants to play, The OS team can sign him knowing the Leafs can match and they get the tier 2 compensation.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Get in a friggin' room and don't come out until this is signed. I don't understand why this is so difficult.

Time is an asset in negotiations. It is being used.

 

[kb]

If Marner wants to play, The OS team can sign him knowing the Leafs can match and they get the tier 2 compensation.

So the whole premise for Marner is that he wants to screw the Leafs as badly as possible AND sign for less money elsewhere?

Doesn't pass the logical test. At all.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Marner's holding the cards but they're a pair of 7s and queen high.

Only Paul think's he's got a full house, aces over kings.

Exactly. If things don't change fairly soon, let him fold.

 

[FMichael]

Marner camp has no leverage. None at all.

Players like Point and Rantanen will sign deals soon which will then put them with even less to none leverage.

I agree with the posters above. Offer him a short term and long term deal. There is no negotiating. He either takes it or leaves it. Once the other players sign his deals are off the table.

Simple. The Leafs can easily go out and trade for another scoring winger in his absence. If Marner chooses at that point to sign an offer sheet, the Leafs don't need to match it. Take the picks and run.

Later Mitch. No need for you and your father with the Leafs. Say good bye to your endorsement deals. Unless you go to Montreal or some other Canadian market you become second or third in the pecking order behind baseball, football and basketball stars..

I agree with this...Also I get the impression Marner wants to stay 'home' in Toronto (which favors the Leafs)...Only issue is Dubas is likely gonna have to pay him more than what he probably deserves at this stage of his career (see Matthews open checkbook contract this past February)...I'll stand by my comment earlier that he'll get $10,5 per season (or possibly more)...I'll be shocked if it's anything less.

 

[Nineteen67]

So the whole premise for Marner is that he wants to screw the Leafs as badly as possible AND sign for less money elsewhere?

Doesn't pass the logical test. At all.

9.5 AAV over 3 is a pretty good deal that was not an option in the OP.
Configured 8,8.5,12 which would set him up for his next long term contract.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Mitch wants to play for Leafs. Mitch wants as much as he can get. He will exhaust every avenue to get what he wants. At this point in time he already knows what is available to him in an OS. Clearly he did not get enough from another team to make it worth his while to sign one. That is how markets work. So why not wait until camp starts to get much closer to what he wants. At some point he will not want to lose a pay check and he will sign for most he can get. maybe there is another increase from Dubie/Shanny so why not wait for it. I would guess from Dubie stand point no point in doing that now because Mitch will say thanks I will consider it and then wait some more time before pay checks start. So it is a total stalemate until camp starts.