Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[LiseL]

That was a typo- got the differential between them and Ottawa right at 2 (78-76). Lots of easy money until its not. The final results are so dependent on injuries that It's better to bet on something safer. The only guy making money is the bookie. That line will keep moving with the amount bet on each side of it.

Atlantic is an interesting division- Such a line between the Haves and have nots. 4 rebuilding teams at different stages. Habs biggest advantage is they have not been rebuilding as long as the other 3 and will hopefully learn from some of those mistakes. Buffalo seems like a permanent rebuild, Det seems to have signed maybe too many middling UFAs for too much term now these guys are blocking their kids and or taking up to much money. Being a less desirable UFA destination Ottawa tried to accelerate the rebuild by trading high picks for established players with a couple years term left (debrincat and Chychrun) and in both cases set themselves back. Habs approach to accelerate was avoid the UFA market in early stages and instead trade assets for picks Romanov/Chiarot/ Toffoli etc and then use those extra late 1st rounders on recent high picks like Dach and Newhook. Interesting to see which approach bears fruit 1st and which bears the best fruit.

As a Sens fan, I recommend not going the Ottawa rebuild route. Thank God the Melnyk/Dorion era is over.

 

[thebestnic]

That’s French for “Suzuki is the best forward we’ve had in 40 years”

Yah I know every offseason the passive-aggresive sens fans come out of hiding

 

[Essenege]

Montreal fans when they realize I think Nick Suzuki is a excellent center.

Unfortunately, 22.5% shooting is not sustainable for any player.

Who cares. Caufield regression to his mean should be a larger impact on Suzuki points total.

 

[dgibb10]

Who cares. Caufield regression to his mean should be a larger impact on Suzuki points total.

That would

a) assume that Suzuki will assist on every single one of Caufield's goals
b) assume that Caufield's shooting % will increase by more than Suzuki's

The impacts should cancel out in terms of MTL, or even a slight bump by a goal or two based on luck regression.

This regression will not help Suzuki's point totals.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Which is why taking the stats from a hot shooting streak and saying "this is the new normal" is stupid. The same way taking stats from a low shooting slump and saying "this is the new normal" would also be stupid.

Nobody said it was the new normal. I said i expect him to do 75 to 80 points next year. If i thought his hot streak was his new normal i would have said something like 95 points (1.2 ppg). And again, if you say that statistics didn't show his improvements, then you need to actually watch him play. He was far better in the 2nd half than he was in the first half. Advanced stats are worthless if you don't couple them with actually watching games.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Also "better linemates made his assists go down" is a new one I haven't heard before lmao

You said yourself that his goals went up. Lol.

 

[dgibb10]

You said yourself that his goals went up. Lol.

Because he started shooting 22.5%

 

[NikolaTesla]

Also "better linemates made his assists go down" is a new one I haven't heard before lmao

Oh and pretty sure you said "primary assists" you got caught into using too many filters hgaahahaha.

 

[dgibb10]

Nobody said it was the new normal. I said i expect him to do 75 to 80 points next year. If i thought his hot streak was his new normal i would have said something like 95 points (1.2 ppg). And again, if you say that statistics didn't show his improvements, then you need to actually watch him play. He was far better in the 2nd half than he was in the first half. Advanced stats are worthless if you don't couple them with actually watching games.

So If Suzuki was far better.

That means either

A) Caufield got significantly worse
B) Slafkofsky got significantly worse/was a downgrade over the previous linemate
C) Montreals defensive core got significantly worse throughout the course of the year

Or some combination

Because MTLs on ice results with suzuki (again, outside of the change in shooting) were worse after the new year.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Because he started shooting 22.5%

Which means his linemates, whom as i said got better, made him better pass or opened the ice for him. Are you following the conversation?

So If Suzuki was far better.

That means either

A) Caufield got significantly worse
B) Slafkofsky got significantly worse/was a downgrade over the previous linemate
C) Montreals defensive core got significantly worse throughout the course of the year

Or some combination

Because MTLs on ice results with suzuki (again, outside of the change in shooting) were worse after the new year.

Nice f***ing logic there. Those 3 players literally almost doubled their productions in the 2nd half of the season, but they all got worse. Rofl that guy.

 

[dgibb10]

Which means his linemates, who, as i said got better, made him better pass or opened the ice for him. Are you following the conversation?

Except those higher quality chances would show in his other metrics. (here comes the "Analytics are fake when they say something I don't like")