Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[dgibb10]

You said yourself that his goals went up. Lol.

Because he started shooting 22.5%

 

[NikolaTesla]

Also "better linemates made his assists go down" is a new one I haven't heard before lmao

Oh and pretty sure you said "primary assists" you got caught into using too many filters hgaahahaha.

 

[dgibb10]

Nobody said it was the new normal. I said i expect him to do 75 to 80 points next year. If i thought his hot streak was his new normal i would have said something like 95 points (1.2 ppg). And again, if you say that statistics didn't show his improvements, then you need to actually watch him play. He was far better in the 2nd half than he was in the first half. Advanced stats are worthless if you don't couple them with actually watching games.

So If Suzuki was far better.

That means either

A) Caufield got significantly worse
B) Slafkofsky got significantly worse/was a downgrade over the previous linemate
C) Montreals defensive core got significantly worse throughout the course of the year

Or some combination

Because MTLs on ice results with suzuki (again, outside of the change in shooting) were worse after the new year.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Because he started shooting 22.5%

Which means his linemates, whom as i said got better, made him better pass or opened the ice for him. Are you following the conversation?

So If Suzuki was far better.

That means either

A) Caufield got significantly worse
B) Slafkofsky got significantly worse/was a downgrade over the previous linemate
C) Montreals defensive core got significantly worse throughout the course of the year

Or some combination

Because MTLs on ice results with suzuki (again, outside of the change in shooting) were worse after the new year.

Nice f***ing logic there. Those 3 players literally almost doubled their productions in the 2nd half of the season, but they all got worse. Rofl that guy.

 

[dgibb10]

Which means his linemates, who, as i said got better, made him better pass or opened the ice for him. Are you following the conversation?

Except those higher quality chances would show in his other metrics. (here comes the "Analytics are fake when they say something I don't like")

 

[NikolaTesla]

Except those higher quality chances would show in his other metrics. (here comes the "Analytics are fake when they say something I don't like")

Its ok bro you feel free to believe that Suzuki got worse lol. Whatever makes you sleep at night. How many habs games did you watch last year, other than the ones against the devils?

 

[dgibb10]

Its ok bro you feel free to believe that Suzuki got worse lol. Whatever makes you sleep at night. How many habs games did you watch last year, other than the ones against the devils.

Not what I said at all.

I disagreed with the claim that he got "significantly better", when the only thing that improved was his shooting %.

 

[leafsfan5]

It feels like every year this type of thread turns into Sens/Habs/Wings fans arguing and it always ends up being a battle of mid

 

[Necrobutcher]

Toronto
Florida
Boston
Buffalo (WC)
Tampa (WC)
Ottawa
Detroit
Montreal

It's gonna be a bloobath. I think even Montreal is in the mix for a playoff spot. A very solid division overall.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

It feels like every year this type of thread turns into Sens/Habs/Wings fans arguing and it always ends up being a battle of mid

Hab fans are a new entrant to the battle this year it seems.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Toronto
Florida
Boston
Buffalo (WC)
Tampa (WC)
Ottawa
Detroit
Montreal

It's gonna be a bloobath. I think even Montreal is in the mix for a playoff spot. A very solid division overall.

Yet they'll be last in the Atlantic?

 

[RRhoads]

Yet they'll be last in the Atlantic?

He means that all teams in the division are in the mix for a playoff spot.

 

[Zalos]

Anyways, no one in Toronto wants Marner to stay that badly. We don't care he is an elite player, we have Matthews and Willy and his deal needs to make sense. To be honest him and Nylander are pretty comparable players these days. Marner is better defensively but Nylander is better offensively.

That's why he does not deserve 3M more than Nylander. Makes no sense.

Marner is better than Nylander offensively too. He will hit 100 points this season if he doesn't get injured.

By the way, I think the Atlantic is the hardest division to predict. I could see scenarios where there ends up being multiple upsets. If the younger teams (Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa) finally remain stellar throughout the year and some of the 'top' teams have an off year, you never know.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Marner is better than Nylander offensively too. He will hit 100 points this season if he doesn't get injured.

By the way, I think the Atlantic is the hardest division to predict. I could see scenarios where there ends up being multiple upsets. If the younger teams (Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa) finally remain stellar throughout the year and some of the 'top' teams have an off year, you never know.

I don't think that's been the case for a few years now. Nylander is a more direct offensive player than Marner.

 

[Essenege]

That would

a) assume that Suzuki will assist on every single one of Caufield's goals
b) assume that Caufield's shooting % will increase by more than Suzuki's

The impacts should cancel out in terms of MTL, or even a slight bump by a goal or two based on luck regression.

This regression will not help Suzuki's point totals.

They both have around 4-5% expected regression to mean, but Caufield shoots way more (quite an important piece you forgot in your math)

If they both regress to mean it’s a net positive impact for the Habs and neutral for Suzuki (if he assists around 2/3rds of Caufield goals which I would guess is pretty much it)

If you want to argue only the negative will happen, go for it, I prefer to keep it both ways.

 

[dgibb10]

They both have around 4-5% expected regression to mean, but Caufield shoots way more (quite an important piece you forgot in your math)

If they both regress to mean it’s a net positive impact for the Habs and neutral for Suzuki (if he assists around 2/3rds of Caufield goals which I would guess is pretty much it)

If you want to argue only the negative will happen, go for it, I prefer to keep it both ways.

Suzuki assisted on 15/28 caufields goals last year. Approximately half.

In terms of goals above shooting talent (moneypuck), Caufield was -11 goals below shooting talent, suzuki was 9 above.

If both shot their career averages, caufield would be expected to get 37 goals (+9), suzuki 25.5 (-7.5).

If both shot their career averages prior to this year (with unchanged shot totals), suzuki would be expected to get 23 goals (-10), Caufield would be expected to get 44 (+16).

As I've said, between the 2 of them I expect a slight bump overall.

 

[Drew4u]

I don't think that's been the case for a few years now. Nylander is a more direct offensive player than Marner.

You have no brain then. There is not a single stat that is in favour of Nylander. P/60, p/gp, Corsi, Expected Goals, raw goals for/against.

There is no argument for Nylander being better than Marner. I'm not even a leafs fan. Even in the playoffs Marner is better.

I swear the only reason Leafs fans don't like Marner is cuz of his personality.

If your team loses Marner, they ain't making the playoffs and Matthews will want out.

 

[HockeyVirus]

You have no brain then. There is not a single stat that is in favour of Nylander. P/60, p/gp, Corsi, Expected Goals, raw goals for/against.

There is no argument for Nylander being better than Marner. I'm not even a leafs fan. Even in the playoffs Marner is better.

I swear the only reason Leafs fans don't like Marner is cuz of his personality.

If your team loses Marner, they ain't making the playoffs and Matthews will want out.

Marner plays more often with Matthews

 

[Mattilaus]

It feels like every year this type of thread turns into Sens/Habs/Wings fans arguing and it always ends up being a battle of mid

Meanwhile Sabres fans have been burnt too many times, predicting they will make the playoffs, to get involved anymore.

 

[Mudz]

Buffalo
Montreal
Ottawa

Panthers
Tampa

Toronto
Boston
Detroit

 

[JianYang]

Nick Suzuki is elite. He will tilt the Atlantic on it's head.

Here are the Atlantic Standings 24/25:

MTL 121 points President's Trophy
FLA 102 points
TOR 100 points
OTT makes the playoffs with 99 points


Don't mess with this elite informative post. I read the thread and Suzuki is exciting and will kill it.

You're trying too hard....

 

[Panthaz89]

Meanwhile Sabres fans have been burnt too many times, predicting they will make the playoffs, to get involved anymore.

New teens don't even know what a Sabres playoff game feels like.

 

[JimmyApples]

Ottawa addressed their most important need in a major way - by trading for Ullmark. I don’t think the Atlantic is going to be a dog fight this season.. every team in the division above Buffalo got worse this off season (and Montreal, is, well, Montreal).

 

[leafsfan5]

Ottawa addressed their most important need in a major way - by trading for Ullmark. I don’t think the Atlantic is going to be a dog fight this season.. every team in the division above Buffalo got worse this off season (and Montreal, is, well, Montreal).

There is very little argument for Toronto getting worse this off-season. You could argue they should've used their cap more effectively, but they 100% improved

 

[Strangle]

The more I think about it, the more I feel like Toronto is going to win the Atlantic this year