Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[dgibb10]

Context my friend, context. Suzuki won't shoot at that % for sure, but he will have more opportunities to shoot, given that the team now has a 2nd line that the other teams will have to worry about. He might not get as many goals but its safe to say he will get at the very least as many points as last year. He had a very slow start last year and only started producing in january. And then he was on something like a 1.2 ppg pace til the end of the season.

What you just described was his shooting %.

Pre January:
All situations:

EV:

PP:

Post January:

EV:

PP:

If you look, his primary assist generation actually got significantly WORSE towards the end of the year. As did his overall shot generation, and shot attempt generation (this decline was mostly on the PP, with a slight uptick in EV chance generation).

There's really nothing suggesting his play in the second half was better, besides him getting on a shooting heater of 22.5%

Suzuki seems to be a very streaky shooter. I remember he started off the first quarter of 22-23 shooting red hot at 27.5% as well, and we had these same conversations about him "breaking out". And then his shooting% came back down to earth (11%) the rest of the year and he managed just 0.67 points per game.

 

[Jack Spider]

Suzuki is honestly a boring player to watch. ish ? But we've had free agents players like Tofolli say they've signed in Montreal just to play with him. OHL players watching his game. Suzuki says he likes Bergeron.

 

[NikolaTesla]

What you just described was his shooting %.

Pre January:
All situations:
View attachment 908342
EV:
View attachment 908343
PP:
View attachment 908344

Post January:
View attachment 908347
EV:
View attachment 908346
PP:
View attachment 908345


If you look, his primary assist generation actually got significantly WORSE towards the end of the year. As did his overall shot generation, and shot attempt generation (this decline was mostly on the PP, with a slight uptick in EV chance generation).

There's really nothing suggesting his play in the second half was better, besides him getting on a shooting heater of 22.5%

Suzuki seems to be a very streaky shooter. I remember he started off the first quarter of 22-23 shooting red hot at 27.5% as well, and we had these same conversations about him "breaking out". And then his shooting% came back down to earth (11%) the rest of the year and he managed just 0.67 points per game.

Stats cherry picker on strike again. "his primary assist went down". Maybe, just maybe... his linemates started producing? So he didn't have to do it all? Did it cross your mind? Do you even watch the games or do you spend all your time filtering statistics?

Why do you think his shooting % got up? Ill tell you. His teamates became a scoring threat, which gave him nice openings. How many points do you think Suzuki will have next year? Im guessing 75-80. Hearing you, he won't scratch 60 right? You're good at picking up stats but you need to put them into context.

"There's really nothing suggesting his play in the second half was better, besides him getting on a shooting heater of 22.5%"

What i hear is "Theres nothing that suggest that player X got better besides him having an absolute killer shot that goalies couldn't stop". "He was just on a 50 games hot streak : doesnt count".

Every fans and professional hockey analysts who actually watched the games could see Suzuki's improvements in the 2nd half but I guess they should just have asked you and your statistics filtering skills to understand that he really didn't play better

 

[Silky Johnson]

It seriously wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Kucherov utterly shatters that 149pt record held by Jagr for wingers next season. An even more bigger and monumental carry job may be upon us this season and if it happens, he without question becomes a Top 5 Winger of All Time easily and becomes the GOAT Russian in my eyes. The 150pts - 170pts (very big exaggeration lol) range is 100% not without of question for a player like Kuch. He's obviously not McDavid but he's the closest one to him in production. Hell even him somehow reaching 50+ goals and 100+ assists isn't a strange prediction for some reason lol. Hopefully he goes apeshit x 10 and redeems himself with a satisfying Hart win over Healthy McDavid.

Tampa's looking like a very BIG one line team with Atkinson in their top 6 and only have a couple years left in the tank.

It wouldn't surprise you if Kuch "Shatters" Jagrs record with as much as 170?

I have to ask you, does anything surprise you?

 

[Ulysses31]

could see some1 not being impressed with DRW off-season moves n predicting they get between 80-85 points, but guessing they get 70 point, IMO that is highly unlikely.

guessing they get 92 points but unsure if they make it

 

[Tuna99]

Any chance you would want to bet real money on that prediction ????

Can I somewhere?

 

[Lshap]

Suzuki is honestly a boring player to watch. ish ? But we've had free agents players like Tofolli say they've signed in Montreal just to play with him. OHL players watching his game. Suzuki says he likes Bergeron.

Suzuki's progression has been almost ridiculously consistent. His points keep improving from 41 to 61 to 66 to 77. Goals - 15, 21, 26, 33.

Obviously he won't keep improving forever, but we haven't seen his peak. Interesting to see where his game goes with a developing Slafkovsky on his wing. Plus, adding a potentially very strong 2nd line with Dach and Laine could take some pressure off the 1st line.

 

[Jack Spider]

Suzuki's progression has been almost ridiculously consistent. His points keep improving from 41 to 61 to 66 to 77. Goals - 15, 21, 26, 33.

Obviously he won't keep improving forever, but we haven't seen his peak. Interesting to see where his game goes with a developing Slafkovsky on his wing. Plus, adding a potentially very strong 2nd line with Dach and Laine could take some pressure off the 1st line.

Montreal might have a decent puck moving D on every line. That will help Suzuki. The PPG is almost guaranteed.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Gunna have to explain why a career 16 shot% player will regress to 13 and calling that realistic. 18% is more realistic. You make it seem like everything went in. Matthews hit the most posts in the league last year. 20 something posts.

, poster is not talking about Matthews, you jumped the gun again.

 

[dgibb10]

Stats cherry picker on strike again. "his primary assist went down". Maybe, just maybe... his linemates started producing? So he didn't have to do it all? Did it cross your mind? Do you even watch the games or do you spend all your time filtering statistics?

Why do you think his shooting % got up? Ill tell you. His teamates became a scoring threat, which gave him nice openings. How many points do you think Suzuki will have next year? Im guessing 75-80. Hearing you, he won't scratch 60 right? You're good at picking up stats but you need to put them into context.

"There's really nothing suggesting his play in the second half was better, besides him getting on a shooting heater of 22.5%"

What i hear is "Theres nothing that suggest that player X got better besides him having an absolute killer shot that goalies couldn't stop". "He was just on a 50 games hot streak : doesnt count".

Every fans and professional hockey analysts who actually watched the games could see Suzuki's improvements in the 2nd half but I guess they should just have asked you and your statistics filtering skills to understand that he really didn't play better

When did I ever say he won't scratch 60?

Casual fans who "watch the games" fall for the shooting % bs literally constantly. He wasn't generating more shots, chances, or winning his minutes more. In fact, his xGoals share pre new year was 53.5% 5v5 (Excellent), and dropped to 48.73% after the new year (meh). If you think nick suzuki woke up one day and suddenly became the best shooter in hockey, I don't know what to tell you. I'm sure however you don't hold that same logic for Cole Caufield who had a down shooting year. I'm sure you're certain his shooting % being so far off his career numbers is just an aberattion.

This SAME discussion was had around suzuki when he got on a shooting heater in 22-23. I heard the SAME arguments from Habs fans about how that shooting heater was the new normal. Then he came down to earth shooting wise and put up 0.67 ppg the rest of the year.

 

[Lshap]

When did I ever say he won't scratch 60?

Casual fans who "watch the games" fall for the shooting % bs literally constantly. He wasn't generating more shots, chances, or winning his minutes more. In fact, his xGoals share pre new year was 53.5% 5v5 (Excellent), and dropped to 48.73% after the new year (meh). If you think nick suzuki woke up one day and suddenly became the best shooter in hockey, I don't know what to tell you. I'm sure however you don't hold that same logic for Cole Caufield who had a down shooting year. I'm sure you're certain his shooting % being so far off his career numbers is just an aberattion.

This SAME discussion was had around suzuki when he got on a shooting heater in 22-23. I heard the SAME arguments from Habs fans about how that shooting heater was the new normal. Then he came down to earth shooting wise and put up 0.67 ppg the rest of the year.

I'm not sure what your point is. Suzuki will continue to have shooting streaks, just like he'll also have shooting slumps. That's how it works. Both extremes will balance out. He's improved every single season and will likely improve again this season as his linemates improve.

Given his role, talent, age, and five years worth of data, there is absolutely no reason to believe last season was his peak.

 

[Wayfarer13]

What you just described was his shooting %.

Pre January:
All situations:
View attachment 908342
EV:
View attachment 908343
PP:
View attachment 908344

Post January:
View attachment 908347
EV:
View attachment 908346
PP:
View attachment 908345


If you look, his primary assist generation actually got significantly WORSE towards the end of the year. As did his overall shot generation, and shot attempt generation (this decline was mostly on the PP, with a slight uptick in EV chance generation).

There's really nothing suggesting his play in the second half was better, besides him getting on a shooting heater of 22.5%

Suzuki seems to be a very streaky shooter. I remember he started off the first quarter of 22-23 shooting red hot at 27.5% as well, and we had these same conversations about him "breaking out". And then his shooting% came back down to earth (11%) the rest of the year and he managed just 0.67 points per game.

Interesting numbers but without nuance.
Slavkovsky joined the line in January and the first overall pick from his year came into his own development wise (looking great in camp this year) and Caufield's was continuing to heal as he worked on other aspects of his game. That stats showed he was a better player in the second half than he was in the first. This us what you want to see in a young player do you agree?

What you just described was his shooting %.

Pre January:
All situations:
View attachment 908342
EV:
View attachment 908343
PP:
View attachment 908344

Post January:
View attachment 908347
EV:
View attachment 908346
PP:
View attachment 908345


If you look, his primary assist generation actually got significantly WORSE towards the end of the year. As did his overall shot generation, and shot attempt generation (this decline was mostly on the PP, with a slight uptick in EV chance generation).

There's really nothing suggesting his play in the second half was better, besides him getting on a shooting heater of 22.5%

Suzuki seems to be a very streaky shooter. I remember he started off the first quarter of 22-23 shooting red hot at 27.5% as well, and we had these same conversations about him "breaking out". And then his shooting% came back down to earth (11%) the rest of the year and he managed just 0.67 points per game.

You know he had lost his best winger in the second half of the 22-23 and did not a replacement for Cole?

 

[dgibb10]

I'm not sure what your point is. Suzuki will continue to have shooting streaks, just like he'll also have shooting slumps. That's how it works. Both extremes will balance out. He's improved every single season and will likely improve again this season as his linemates improve.

Given his role, talent, age, and five years worth of data, there is absolutely no reason to believe last season was his peak.

Yes, he will have shooting slumps and peaks. It evens out.

Which is why taking the stats from a hot shooting streak and saying "this is the new normal" is stupid. The same way taking stats from a low shooting slump and saying "this is the new normal" would also be stupid.

Interesting numbers but without nuance.
Slavkovsky joined the line in January and the first overall pick from his year came into his own development wise (looking great in camp this year) and Caufield's was continuing to heal as he worked on other aspects of his game. That stats showed he was a better player in the second half than he was in the first. This us what you want to see in a young player do you agree?


You know he had lost his best winger in the second half of the 22-23 and did not a replacement for Cole?

Except the stats DIDN'T show that he was a better player

He generated less shots, less chances, less primary assists, and overall with him on the ice MTL had much worse results in terms of winning their minutes after the new year.

All masked by an unsustainably high shooting %.

 

[dgibb10]

Stats cherry picker on strike again. "his primary assist went down". Maybe, just maybe... his linemates started producing? So he didn't have to do it all? Did it cross your mind? Do you even watch the games or do you spend all your time filtering statistics?

Why do you think his shooting % got up? Ill tell you. His teamates became a scoring threat, which gave him nice openings. How many points do you think Suzuki will have next year? Im guessing 75-80. Hearing you, he won't scratch 60 right? You're good at picking up stats but you need to put them into context.

"There's really nothing suggesting his play in the second half was better, besides him getting on a shooting heater of 22.5%"

What i hear is "Theres nothing that suggest that player X got better besides him having an absolute killer shot that goalies couldn't stop". "He was just on a 50 games hot streak : doesnt count".

Every fans and professional hockey analysts who actually watched the games could see Suzuki's improvements in the 2nd half but I guess they should just have asked you and your statistics filtering skills to understand that he really didn't play better

Also "better linemates made his assists go down" is a new one I haven't heard before lmao

 

[boompuffboom]

wow i just spit out my lunch when i read Suzuki is a boring player to watch.

 

[JianYang]

wow i just spit out my lunch when i read Suzuki is a boring player to watch.

That was a headscratcher for me too.

 

[Tuna99]

wow i just spit out my lunch when i read Suzuki is a boring player to watch.

Bring by nir L NHL standards, but in Montreal he’s the best you’ve seen since Bobby Smith so we get why you’re excited

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Nick Suzuki is elite. He will tilt the Atlantic on it's head.

Here are the Atlantic Standings 24/25:

MTL 121 points President's Trophy
FLA 102 points
TOR 100 points
OTT makes the playoffs with 99 points


Don't mess with this elite informative post. I read the thread and Suzuki is exciting and will kill it.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

1. Florida - they lost a lot of depth but pretty much all of the integral guys are still there, i expect them to be the best team in the division.

2. Toronto - Same ole same ole. We know the regular season isn't the problem for this group. It's the other part.

3. Boston - under the assumption Swayman signs either before or early into the regular season, Boston will absolutely be there again. Roster on paper is a bit better than it was last year. Will presumably troll the Leafs in round 1 again and then get smacked by a team that actually has legitimate postseason aspirations. A true jobber to the stars

4. - Tampa (WC1) - Not the juggernaut they once were but they remind me of the late stage Red Wings; not the scariest anymore, but they'll absolutely find a way in.

5. - Buffalo (WC2) - Surely this is the year, right? If only they could also get Dominik Hasek out of the same time machine set to 1998 they got Lindy Ruff out of.

6. - Detroit - I was honestly going to put them in Buffalo's spot but i'm absolutely not a fan of that goalie tandem they have. Cam Talbot looked okay last year but that was behind a defense first Kings team. He won't get the same type of insulation playing behind Detroit's defense.

7. Montreal - I actually really like the offseason they had. Getting Laine for scraps is a really nice add assuming he can stay healthy. Suzuki, Caulfield and Slaf have already proven they can hang in the top 6. Dach/Laine is a solid 2nd line assuming both guys don't end up on IR when someone looks at them funny. Still think their defense needs a bit more depth before they're truly ready (which, to be fair they could also get as early as this season if Reinbacher is ready)

8. Ottawa - This team is a joke until proven otherwise. Divers, mental midgets for leadership (waaaah the fans boo us because we suck!), hired a pretty blah head coach. Pray for our boy Ullmark behind that tire fire of a defense.

Reinbacher might join the team later on, but Lane Hutson is the one who's going to transform the Habs, as soon as the season starts.

Last season, they were a one line team, but having a better top 6 with the addition of Laine (and Dach healthy) is going to be complemented by now also having two bonafide PMDs, one each two top lines, with Hutson and Matheson.

They probably won't be much better on defense, but the offense should get a serious boost.

Players at habs camp are raving about Hutson. Got guys like Savy and Suzuki already praising him. NHL.com has already penciled in Hutson in the top 4 in the habs season preview they put out yesterday. Kid's gonna be star.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Reinbacher might join the team later on, but Lane Hutson is the one who's going to transform the Habs, as soon as the season starts.

Last season, they were a one line team, but having a better top 6 with the addition of Laine (and Dach healthy) is going to be complemented by now also having two bonafide PMDs, one each two top lines, with Hutson and Matheson.

They probably won't be much better on defense, but the offense should get a serious boost.

Players at habs camp are raving about Hutson. Got guys like Savy and Suzuki already praising him. NHL.com has already penciled in Hutson in the top 4 in the habs season preview they put out yesterday. Kid's gonna be star.

Damn. Will admit I wasn't familiar with his game.

I put Montreal at 7 but honestly any of those 3 from 5 to 7 could be pretty interchangeable. The Habs were probably the team I was least sure about but I could see a surprise breakout.

 

[LiseL]

That was a typo- got the differential between them and Ottawa right at 2 (78-76). Lots of easy money until its not. The final results are so dependent on injuries that It's better to bet on something safer. The only guy making money is the bookie. That line will keep moving with the amount bet on each side of it.

Atlantic is an interesting division- Such a line between the Haves and have nots. 4 rebuilding teams at different stages. Habs biggest advantage is they have not been rebuilding as long as the other 3 and will hopefully learn from some of those mistakes. Buffalo seems like a permanent rebuild, Det seems to have signed maybe too many middling UFAs for too much term now these guys are blocking their kids and or taking up to much money. Being a less desirable UFA destination Ottawa tried to accelerate the rebuild by trading high picks for established players with a couple years term left (debrincat and Chychrun) and in both cases set themselves back. Habs approach to accelerate was avoid the UFA market in early stages and instead trade assets for picks Romanov/Chiarot/ Toffoli etc and then use those extra late 1st rounders on recent high picks like Dach and Newhook. Interesting to see which approach bears fruit 1st and which bears the best fruit.

As a Sens fan, I recommend not going the Ottawa rebuild route. Thank God the Melnyk/Dorion era is over.

 

[Essenege]

Montreal fans when they realize I think Nick Suzuki is a excellent center.

Unfortunately, 22.5% shooting is not sustainable for any player.

Who cares. Caufield regression to his mean should be a larger impact on Suzuki points total.

 

[dgibb10]

Who cares. Caufield regression to his mean should be a larger impact on Suzuki points total.

That would

a) assume that Suzuki will assist on every single one of Caufield's goals
b) assume that Caufield's shooting % will increase by more than Suzuki's

The impacts should cancel out in terms of MTL, or even a slight bump by a goal or two based on luck regression.

This regression will not help Suzuki's point totals.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Which is why taking the stats from a hot shooting streak and saying "this is the new normal" is stupid. The same way taking stats from a low shooting slump and saying "this is the new normal" would also be stupid.

Nobody said it was the new normal. I said i expect him to do 75 to 80 points next year. If i thought his hot streak was his new normal i would have said something like 95 points (1.2 ppg). And again, if you say that statistics didn't show his improvements, then you need to actually watch him play. He was far better in the 2nd half than he was in the first half. Advanced stats are worthless if you don't couple them with actually watching games.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Also "better linemates made his assists go down" is a new one I haven't heard before lmao

You said yourself that his goals went up. Lol.