Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[Dread Clawz]

Maurice says the team has come into camp in even better shape than they were last year. Just saying.

 

[dgibb10]

What does
Rather confused here on a couple of things. What does the development arc of another player have anything to do with Suzuki? In this discussion I no interest in what another is doing.Secondly this shooting percentage thing and looking at his stats he was just slightly better than the previous year. How is that unsustainable his age?

If you want to believe in a career high shooting% go ahead.

I remember the same thing with tim stutzle. He shot the exact same 17.8% as suzuki did last year in 22-23. And the ottawa fanbase said "he's young and developing he will definitely shoot like this again next year". And, unsurprisingly, the shooting % came down significantly and he "regressed"

 

[Golden_Jet]

If you want to believe in a career high shooting% go ahead.

I remember the same thing with tim stutzle. He shot the exact same 17.8% as suzuki did last year in 22-23. And the ottawa fanbase said "he's young and developing he will definitely shoot like this again next year". And, unsurprisingly, the shooting % came down significantly and he "regressed"

Correct on Stutzle, but you left out he was injured from game 4 on, and had issues shooting, thus set career highs in assists instead.

 

[dgibb10]

Correct on Stutzle, but you left out he was injured from game 4 on, and had issues shooting, thus set career highs in assists instead.

100%, which is why I expect his shooting % to improve this year. Certainly not to 18% again, but somewhere in the middle around 13-14% is a very reasonable expectation. I also don't believe Stutzle regressed in his development. I don't think he was as good as his point numbers suggested in 22-23 since it was inflated due to a high shooting %, and I don't think he was as bad as his point numbers suggested in 23-24 since they were deflated due to a low shooting%.

The same applies with caufield low shooting% last year, tage highs and lows in shooting%, jack hughes highs and lows in shooting%, etc etc.

I do not expect Jack to shoot 16% like he did to inflate his stats in 21-22, and I also do not expect him to shoot sub 10%.

Now of course, stutzle may have a low year or a high year again, but I place my expectations based on normal shooting results. And over the course of a career or a 5 year span or whatever, it tends to all even out.

 

[Wayfarer13]

If you want to believe in a career high shooting% go ahead.

I remember the same thing with tim stutzle. He shot the exact same 17.8% as suzuki did last year in 22-23. And the ottawa fanbase said "he's young and developing he will definitely shoot like this again next year". And, unsurprisingly, the shooting % came down significantly and he "regressed"

Got a Crystal ball going there? I don't know what his shooting percentage is going to be. Just the trend, his age and the expected team impruaovement. How are you at picking stocks? Stutzle hit a high mark early and slipped last year. There is nothing there to say at his age he won't rebound.Don't care ether and still puzzled why you pushing this player into a conversation as to Suzuki is going to do this year. Are they siblings or cousins?

 

[Strangle]

More like there wasn't a deal out there that made them better + was a location Marner would agree to waive for so they didn't ask to not sour the relationship. To trade Marner we would need basically a package better than what the Sharks got for Timo Meier and some of the prospects would need to be NHL ready.

Only teams doing that are maybe teams like the Sabres or Wings who are exiting a rebuild and want to make playoffs.. Except those teams don't need wingers and are also in the division.

All that said, I wouldn't be surprised if management let Marner walk over paying a ransom to keep him. Leafs are probably better with Matthews + Nylander + Knies and Cowan making Marner's money than with the core 4. Would be able to afford defense and goaltending

I can live with letting Marner walk and reallocating that cap space + the Tavares cap space (even if resigned, he will be making much less)

Ideally, it would have been better to trade Marner before his NMC kicked in, or trading Nylander before he was resigned.

But, the situation is what the situation is

100%, which is why I expect his shooting % to improve this year. Certainly not to 18% again, but somewhere in the middle around 13-14% is a very reasonable expectation. I also don't believe Stutzle regressed in his development. I don't think he was as good as his point numbers suggested in 22-23 since it was inflated due to a high shooting %, and I don't think he was as bad as his point numbers suggested in 23-24 since they were deflated due to a low shooting%.

The same applies with caufield low shooting% last year, tage highs and lows in shooting%, jack hughes highs and lows in shooting%, etc etc.

I do not expect Jack to shoot 16% like he did to inflate his stats in 21-22, and I also do not expect him to shoot sub 10%.

Now of course, stutzle may have a low year or a high year again, but I place my expectations based on normal shooting results. And over the course of a career or a 5 year span or whatever, it tends to all even out.

We do expect Matthews to shoot around 18%

 

[dgibb10]

I can live with letting Marner walk and reallocating that cap space + the Tavares cap space (even if resigned, he will be making much less)

Ideally, it would have been better to trade Marner before his NMC kicked in, or trading Nylander before he was resigned.

But, the situation is what the situation is



We do expect Matthews to shoot around 18%

100% would expect a guy like matthews to have a higher "normal" shooting range (same applied to guys like draisaitl and point". But the same variability applies to those guys to.

19% is probably a touch high even for matthews to hit consistently. And 12% is definitely a low year, even though for most guys that would be normal. I would expect him to shoot in the mid 16s most years, with fluctuation to occur

Got a Crystal ball going there? I don't know what his shooting percentage is going to be. Just the trend, his age and the expected team impruaovement. How are you at picking stocks? Stutzle hit a high mark early and slipped last year. There is nothing there to say at his age he won't rebound.Don't care ether and still puzzled why you pushing this player into a conversation as to Suzuki is going to do this year. Are they siblings or cousins?

Yes, we all know you don't have a firm grasp on concepts like statistics, variability, regression to the mean, sample size, etc.

Decades upon decades of evidence show that guys who have single year performances in shooting% far above their career numbers, don't tend to sustain it. same with guys who have single year performances far below.

 

[HockeyVirus]

100%, which is why I expect his shooting % to improve this year. Certainly not to 18% again, but somewhere in the middle around 13-14% is a very reasonable expectation. I also don't believe Stutzle regressed in his development. I don't think he was as good as his point numbers suggested in 22-23 since it was inflated due to a high shooting %, and I don't think he was as bad as his point numbers suggested in 23-24 since they were deflated due to a low shooting%.

The same applies with caufield low shooting% last year, tage highs and lows in shooting%, jack hughes highs and lows in shooting%, etc etc.

I do not expect Jack to shoot 16% like he did to inflate his stats in 21-22, and I also do not expect him to shoot sub 10%.

Now of course, stutzle may have a low year or a high year again, but I place my expectations based on normal shooting results. And over the course of a career or a 5 year span or whatever, it tends to all even out.

Gunna have to explain why a career 16 shot% player will regress to 13 and calling that realistic. 18% is more realistic. You make it seem like everything went in. Matthews hit the most posts in the league last year. 20 something posts.

 

[dgibb10]

Gunna have to explain why a career 16 shot% player will regress to 13 and calling that realistic. 18% is more realistic. You make it seem like everything went in. Matthews hit the most posts in the league last year. 20 something posts.

Reread the post you quoted and figure out who I'm talking about in it.

Hint: it starts with a Tim and ends with an Tutzle

 

[Wayfarer13]

100% would expect a guy like matthews to have a higher "normal" shooting range (same applied to guys like draisaitl and point". But the same variability applies to those guys to.

19% is probably a touch high even for matthews to hit consistently. And 12% is definitely a low year, even though for most guys that would be normal. I would expect him to shoot in the mid 16s most years, with fluctuation to occur


Yes, we all know you don't have a firm grasp on concepts like statistics, variability, regression to the mean, sample size, etc.

Decades upon decades of evidence show that guys who have single year performances in shooting% far above their career numbers, don't tend to sustain it. same with guys who have single year performances far below.

Over the years I have won more than i have spent on hockey pools so go on.

 

[dgibb10]

Over the years I have won more than i have spent on hockey pools so go on.

This has to be the funniest possible response you could have made lmao.

 

[Wayfarer13]

This has to be the funniest possible response you could have made lmao.

Explain

 

[dgibb10]

Explain

Wait that was a serious argument? That makes it even funnier

 

[Wayfarer13]

Wait that was a serious argument? That makes it even funnier

Wasn't an argument. A request for clarification

 

[Mattilaus]

Don't care ether and still puzzled why you pushing this player into a conversation as to Suzuki is going to do this year. Are they siblings or cousins?

"You're probably wondering how I got here."

Let me try to explain. If you trace the origin of this discussion it comes down to standings in the Atlantic. Multiple posters are arguing whether Montreal will finish ahead or behind Ottawa.

One poster predicted Montreal finishing ahead of Ottawa due to the growth of young players, in this case one of those players is Suzuki. They accounted for the benefit of young players growing to Montreal but in their prediction of Montreal passing the Ottawa Senators, they failed to account for that same benefit to Ottawa's young players, in this case one of those players is Stutzle.

At this point a (presumably) Ottawa fan interjected and asked if Montreal was going to get better due to improvement from Suzuki, why is Ottawa not getting better when improvement would normally also be expected from Stutzle.

And thus, we arrive at the current point in the conversation, where the two are being compared. I hope I was of assistance.

 

[Schennanigans]

I feel like this is the year Montreal makes a little impact. I see them better than Ottawa but to be honest that’s probably it.

 

[Wayfarer13]

"You're probably wondering how I got here."

Let me try to explain. If you trace the origin of this discussion it comes down to standings in the Atlantic. Multiple posters are arguing whether Montreal will finish ahead or behind Ottawa.

One poster predicted Montreal finishing ahead of Ottawa due to the growth of young players, in this case one of those players is Suzuki. They accounted for the benefit of young players growing to Montreal but in their prediction of Montreal passing the Ottawa Senators, they failed to account for that same benefit to Ottawa's young players, in this case one of those players is Stutzle.

At this point a (presumably) Ottawa fan interjected and asked if Montreal was going to get better due to improvement from Suzuki, why is Ottawa not getting better when improvement would normally also be expected from Stutzle.

And thus, we arrive at the current point in the conversation, where the two are being compared. I hope I was of assistance.

That helps a little as I have not commented where Ottawa is going to finish. But what i have said is the division is going to be a bloodbath and the Habs may make the playoffs. Season starts in 3 weeks and things will have a chance to bare out one way or another

 

[Wayfarer13]

"You're probably wondering how I got here."

Let me try to explain. If you trace the origin of this discussion it comes down to standings in the Atlantic. Multiple posters are arguing whether Montreal will finish ahead or behind Ottawa.

One poster predicted Montreal finishing ahead of Ottawa due to the growth of young players, in this case one of those players is Suzuki. They accounted for the benefit of young players growing to Montreal but in their prediction of Montreal passing the Ottawa Senators, they failed to account for that same benefit to Ottawa's young players, in this case one of those players is Stutzle.

At this point a (presumably) Ottawa fan interjected and asked if Montreal was going to get better due to improvement from Suzuki, why is Ottawa not getting better when improvement would normally also be expected from Stutzle.

And thus, we arrive at the current point in the conversation, where the two are being compared. I hope I was of assistance.

Using the argument that a team is going improve because they are year older is not a complete picture as to whether a team improves but part of the equation. Both The Sens and the Habs may improve from this factor but one may benefit more than the other for whole slew of reasons ranging from tangible things as health to obscure items such as team chemistry.

 

[dgibb10]

Using the argument that a team is going improve because they are year older is not a complete picture as to whether a team improves but part of the equation. Both The Sens and the Habs may improve from this factor but one may benefit more than the other for whole slew of reasons ranging from tangible things as health to obscure items such as team chemistry.

Yep, there was definitely nothing *cough KORPISALO cough* that tanked ottawas season last year that is different this year.

FYI, going from Korpisalo to Ullmark is something that actually COULD improve a team by 60 goals.

 

[Tuna99]

Toronto - 101
Ottawa - 98
Florida 97
Boston 93
Tampa 93
Buffalo 84
Montreal 82
Detroit 70

 

[Blitzkrug]

1. Florida - they lost a lot of depth but pretty much all of the integral guys are still there, i expect them to be the best team in the division.

2. Toronto - Same ole same ole. We know the regular season isn't the problem for this group. It's the other part.

3. Boston - under the assumption Swayman signs either before or early into the regular season, Boston will absolutely be there again. Roster on paper is a bit better than it was last year. Will presumably troll the Leafs in round 1 again and then get smacked by a team that actually has legitimate postseason aspirations. A true jobber to the stars

4. - Tampa (WC1) - Not the juggernaut they once were but they remind me of the late stage Red Wings; not the scariest anymore, but they'll absolutely find a way in.

5. - Buffalo (WC2) - Surely this is the year, right? If only they could also get Dominik Hasek out of the same time machine set to 1998 they got Lindy Ruff out of.

6. - Detroit - I was honestly going to put them in Buffalo's spot but i'm absolutely not a fan of that goalie tandem they have. Cam Talbot looked okay last year but that was behind a defense first Kings team. He won't get the same type of insulation playing behind Detroit's defense.

7. Montreal - I actually really like the offseason they had. Getting Laine for scraps is a really nice add assuming he can stay healthy. Suzuki, Caulfield and Slaf have already proven they can hang in the top 6. Dach/Laine is a solid 2nd line assuming both guys don't end up on IR when someone looks at them funny. Still think their defense needs a bit more depth before they're truly ready (which, to be fair they could also get as early as this season if Reinbacher is ready)

8. Ottawa - This team is a joke until proven otherwise. Divers, mental midgets for leadership (waaaah the fans boo us because we suck!), hired a pretty blah head coach. Pray for our boy Ullmark behind that tire fire of a defense.

 

[BostonBob]

Toronto - 101
Ottawa - 98
Florida 97
Boston 93
Tampa 93
Buffalo 84
Montreal 82
Detroit 70

Any chance you would want to bet real money on that prediction ????

 

[NikolaTesla]

If you want to believe in a career high shooting% go ahead.

I remember the same thing with tim stutzle. He shot the exact same 17.8% as suzuki did last year in 22-23. And the ottawa fanbase said "he's young and developing he will definitely shoot like this again next year". And, unsurprisingly, the shooting % came down significantly and he "regressed"

Context my friend, context. Suzuki won't shoot at that % for sure, but he will have more opportunities to shoot, given that the team now has a 2nd line that the other teams will have to worry about. He might not get as many goals but its safe to say he will get at the very least as many points as last year. He had a very slow start last year and only started producing in january. And then he was on something like a 1.2 ppg pace til the end of the season.

 

[JFedol]

It seriously wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Kucherov utterly shatters that 149pt record held by Jagr for wingers next season. An even more bigger and monumental carry job may be upon us this season and if it happens, he without question becomes a Top 5 Winger of All Time easily and becomes the GOAT Russian in my eyes. The 150pts - 170pts (very big exaggeration lol) range is 100% not without of question for a player like Kuch. He's obviously not McDavid but he's the closest one to him in production. Hell even him somehow reaching 50+ goals and 100+ assists isn't a strange prediction for some reason lol. Hopefully he goes apeshit x 10 and redeems himself with a satisfying Hart win over Healthy McDavid.

Tampa's looking like a very BIG one line team with Atkinson in their top 6 and only have a couple years left in the tank.

 

[Fatass]

It seriously wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Kucherov utterly shatters that 149pt record held by Jagr for wingers next season. An even more bigger and monumental carry job may be upon us this season and if it happens, he without question becomes a Top 5 Winger of All Time easily and becomes the GOAT Russian in my eyes. The 150pts - 170pts (very big exaggeration lol) range is 100% not without of question for a player like Kuch. He's obviously not McDavid but he's the closest one to him in production. Hell even him somehow reaching 50+ goals and 100+ assists isn't a strange prediction for some reason lol. Hopefully he goes apeshit x 10 and redeems himself with a satisfying Hart win over Healthy McDavid.

Tampa's looking like a very BIG one line team with Atkinson in their top 6 and only have a couple years left in the tank.

Tampa looks like they might fall out of the playoffs. Of the big four in the division they look like the one that will drop. One of the bottom four clubs will pass them. Imo that’s Ottawa.