Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[Dread Clawz]

Maurice says the team has come into camp in even better shape than they were last year. Just saying.

 

[dgibb10]

What does
Rather confused here on a couple of things. What does the development arc of another player have anything to do with Suzuki? In this discussion I no interest in what another is doing.Secondly this shooting percentage thing and looking at his stats he was just slightly better than the previous year. How is that unsustainable his age?

If you want to believe in a career high shooting% go ahead.

I remember the same thing with tim stutzle. He shot the exact same 17.8% as suzuki did last year in 22-23. And the ottawa fanbase said "he's young and developing he will definitely shoot like this again next year". And, unsurprisingly, the shooting % came down significantly and he "regressed"

 

[Golden_Jet]

If you want to believe in a career high shooting% go ahead.

I remember the same thing with tim stutzle. He shot the exact same 17.8% as suzuki did last year in 22-23. And the ottawa fanbase said "he's young and developing he will definitely shoot like this again next year". And, unsurprisingly, the shooting % came down significantly and he "regressed"

Correct on Stutzle, but you left out he was injured from game 4 on, and had issues shooting, thus set career highs in assists instead.

 

[dgibb10]

Correct on Stutzle, but you left out he was injured from game 4 on, and had issues shooting, thus set career highs in assists instead.

100%, which is why I expect his shooting % to improve this year. Certainly not to 18% again, but somewhere in the middle around 13-14% is a very reasonable expectation. I also don't believe Stutzle regressed in his development. I don't think he was as good as his point numbers suggested in 22-23 since it was inflated due to a high shooting %, and I don't think he was as bad as his point numbers suggested in 23-24 since they were deflated due to a low shooting%.

The same applies with caufield low shooting% last year, tage highs and lows in shooting%, jack hughes highs and lows in shooting%, etc etc.

I do not expect Jack to shoot 16% like he did to inflate his stats in 21-22, and I also do not expect him to shoot sub 10%.

Now of course, stutzle may have a low year or a high year again, but I place my expectations based on normal shooting results. And over the course of a career or a 5 year span or whatever, it tends to all even out.

 

[Wayfarer13]

If you want to believe in a career high shooting% go ahead.

I remember the same thing with tim stutzle. He shot the exact same 17.8% as suzuki did last year in 22-23. And the ottawa fanbase said "he's young and developing he will definitely shoot like this again next year". And, unsurprisingly, the shooting % came down significantly and he "regressed"

Got a Crystal ball going there? I don't know what his shooting percentage is going to be. Just the trend, his age and the expected team impruaovement. How are you at picking stocks? Stutzle hit a high mark early and slipped last year. There is nothing there to say at his age he won't rebound.Don't care ether and still puzzled why you pushing this player into a conversation as to Suzuki is going to do this year. Are they siblings or cousins?

 

[Strangle]

More like there wasn't a deal out there that made them better + was a location Marner would agree to waive for so they didn't ask to not sour the relationship. To trade Marner we would need basically a package better than what the Sharks got for Timo Meier and some of the prospects would need to be NHL ready.

Only teams doing that are maybe teams like the Sabres or Wings who are exiting a rebuild and want to make playoffs.. Except those teams don't need wingers and are also in the division.

All that said, I wouldn't be surprised if management let Marner walk over paying a ransom to keep him. Leafs are probably better with Matthews + Nylander + Knies and Cowan making Marner's money than with the core 4. Would be able to afford defense and goaltending

I can live with letting Marner walk and reallocating that cap space + the Tavares cap space (even if resigned, he will be making much less)

Ideally, it would have been better to trade Marner before his NMC kicked in, or trading Nylander before he was resigned.

But, the situation is what the situation is

100%, which is why I expect his shooting % to improve this year. Certainly not to 18% again, but somewhere in the middle around 13-14% is a very reasonable expectation. I also don't believe Stutzle regressed in his development. I don't think he was as good as his point numbers suggested in 22-23 since it was inflated due to a high shooting %, and I don't think he was as bad as his point numbers suggested in 23-24 since they were deflated due to a low shooting%.

The same applies with caufield low shooting% last year, tage highs and lows in shooting%, jack hughes highs and lows in shooting%, etc etc.

I do not expect Jack to shoot 16% like he did to inflate his stats in 21-22, and I also do not expect him to shoot sub 10%.

Now of course, stutzle may have a low year or a high year again, but I place my expectations based on normal shooting results. And over the course of a career or a 5 year span or whatever, it tends to all even out.

We do expect Matthews to shoot around 18%

 

[dgibb10]

I can live with letting Marner walk and reallocating that cap space + the Tavares cap space (even if resigned, he will be making much less)

Ideally, it would have been better to trade Marner before his NMC kicked in, or trading Nylander before he was resigned.

But, the situation is what the situation is



We do expect Matthews to shoot around 18%

100% would expect a guy like matthews to have a higher "normal" shooting range (same applied to guys like draisaitl and point". But the same variability applies to those guys to.

19% is probably a touch high even for matthews to hit consistently. And 12% is definitely a low year, even though for most guys that would be normal. I would expect him to shoot in the mid 16s most years, with fluctuation to occur

Got a Crystal ball going there? I don't know what his shooting percentage is going to be. Just the trend, his age and the expected team impruaovement. How are you at picking stocks? Stutzle hit a high mark early and slipped last year. There is nothing there to say at his age he won't rebound.Don't care ether and still puzzled why you pushing this player into a conversation as to Suzuki is going to do this year. Are they siblings or cousins?

Yes, we all know you don't have a firm grasp on concepts like statistics, variability, regression to the mean, sample size, etc.

Decades upon decades of evidence show that guys who have single year performances in shooting% far above their career numbers, don't tend to sustain it. same with guys who have single year performances far below.

 

[HockeyVirus]

100%, which is why I expect his shooting % to improve this year. Certainly not to 18% again, but somewhere in the middle around 13-14% is a very reasonable expectation. I also don't believe Stutzle regressed in his development. I don't think he was as good as his point numbers suggested in 22-23 since it was inflated due to a high shooting %, and I don't think he was as bad as his point numbers suggested in 23-24 since they were deflated due to a low shooting%.

The same applies with caufield low shooting% last year, tage highs and lows in shooting%, jack hughes highs and lows in shooting%, etc etc.

I do not expect Jack to shoot 16% like he did to inflate his stats in 21-22, and I also do not expect him to shoot sub 10%.

Now of course, stutzle may have a low year or a high year again, but I place my expectations based on normal shooting results. And over the course of a career or a 5 year span or whatever, it tends to all even out.

Gunna have to explain why a career 16 shot% player will regress to 13 and calling that realistic. 18% is more realistic. You make it seem like everything went in. Matthews hit the most posts in the league last year. 20 something posts.

 

[dgibb10]

Gunna have to explain why a career 16 shot% player will regress to 13 and calling that realistic. 18% is more realistic. You make it seem like everything went in. Matthews hit the most posts in the league last year. 20 something posts.

Reread the post you quoted and figure out who I'm talking about in it.

Hint: it starts with a Tim and ends with an Tutzle

 

[Wayfarer13]

100% would expect a guy like matthews to have a higher "normal" shooting range (same applied to guys like draisaitl and point". But the same variability applies to those guys to.

19% is probably a touch high even for matthews to hit consistently. And 12% is definitely a low year, even though for most guys that would be normal. I would expect him to shoot in the mid 16s most years, with fluctuation to occur


Yes, we all know you don't have a firm grasp on concepts like statistics, variability, regression to the mean, sample size, etc.

Decades upon decades of evidence show that guys who have single year performances in shooting% far above their career numbers, don't tend to sustain it. same with guys who have single year performances far below.

Over the years I have won more than i have spent on hockey pools so go on.

 

[dgibb10]

Over the years I have won more than i have spent on hockey pools so go on.

This has to be the funniest possible response you could have made lmao.

 

[Wayfarer13]

This has to be the funniest possible response you could have made lmao.

Explain

 

[dgibb10]

Explain

Wait that was a serious argument? That makes it even funnier

 

[Wayfarer13]

Wait that was a serious argument? That makes it even funnier

Wasn't an argument. A request for clarification

 

[Mattilaus]

Don't care ether and still puzzled why you pushing this player into a conversation as to Suzuki is going to do this year. Are they siblings or cousins?

"You're probably wondering how I got here."

Let me try to explain. If you trace the origin of this discussion it comes down to standings in the Atlantic. Multiple posters are arguing whether Montreal will finish ahead or behind Ottawa.

One poster predicted Montreal finishing ahead of Ottawa due to the growth of young players, in this case one of those players is Suzuki. They accounted for the benefit of young players growing to Montreal but in their prediction of Montreal passing the Ottawa Senators, they failed to account for that same benefit to Ottawa's young players, in this case one of those players is Stutzle.

At this point a (presumably) Ottawa fan interjected and asked if Montreal was going to get better due to improvement from Suzuki, why is Ottawa not getting better when improvement would normally also be expected from Stutzle.

And thus, we arrive at the current point in the conversation, where the two are being compared. I hope I was of assistance.

 

[Schennanigans]

I feel like this is the year Montreal makes a little impact. I see them better than Ottawa but to be honest that’s probably it.