Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

[ULF_55]

Pastrnak was a proven 34 goal/70 point player (37 goal/78 point pace).

Shouldn’t he be paid as such?

Kapanen and Johnsson were ONE time 20 goal/40 point players, and they got paid as proven 20 goal/40 point players.

Proven 37 goal/78 point players sign for 6.6x6. So our proven 20 goal/60 point player should have signed for MUCH less.

Perhaps that's why they take more than 1 year into consideration?

Matthews of course is a different scenario, being a 1st. overall in a good draft and winning a major award just comes with some benefits.

Draft position compensation might not be fair, 1st. rounders are often signed before the summer of their draft is over, while most picks have to prove it.

If marner was 1st. overall and won the Calder I bet his path to money would be easier ... not that 10mm is to sneeze at. How about Werenski 3rd. in Calder voting, better than marner, and he's looking for between 5-6?

 

[biotk]

So if whatever the leafs management or the Dubas clan does is the best thing and should not be discussed or critiqued is your mantra - we don't have much to discuss anymore.

You can discuss it all you want. You are just flailing at the dark if the team disagrees with you.

May be if Matthews' line wasn't a net negative in a 5 on 5 ice-time; perhaps Matthews line would have jumped on the ice before Marner's line

1) Matthews' line did go out first. Matthews' line - the traditionally better 5v5 line - went out with two long shifts left in the game. Tavares' line went out last around the time the opposing team pulled the goalie.

2) Matthews' line wasn't a net negative in 5v5 during the first half - which is when these things are decided. Matthews had a GF% of 57% during the first half of the season. Matthews' GF% in the second half was 42% - despite having a xGF% of 53% (Marner's was 51%). This was due to an oiSH% of 7.03 and a PDO of 0.967. These things happen - like they happened to Marner in the playoffs this year and happened to Matthews in the playoffs the year before.

Personally I believe these stats are frekain' stupid.

Not surprising based on how ridiculous the rest of your views are.

I will use PDO as an example.

I don't care about your inanity.

above mentioned points are weaknesses of the PDO stat. Good teams usually have high PDOs; and good lines have high PDOs because they generate more and give up less. so having a high PDO is not a measure of luck so to speak it seems it is a measure of how good a line/team may be.

Yes, I know the Marner cult no longer thinks that PDO reflects anything except how gosh darn great Marner is. But last summer when I used oiSH% and PDO to say that Matthews' results at 5v5 (which blew away Marner's results this season) would almost certainly decline it was a different story.

Matthews 5v5 2017/18: 4.07 GF/60, 2.00 GA/60.
Marner 5v5 2018/19: 3.91 GF/60, 2.62 GA/60.

And Matthews did that without needing Tavares.

On top of that when doing statistical analysis I would strongly recommend reading anscombe's quartet. Simple descriptive statistics have significant biases in them and should not be used blindly to make a claim.

Never said they should be.

Clearly Bruins' PK that stifled the Leafs in the playoffs and Leafs PK that bent over in the playoffs is a money's job

Monkeys could have done a better job.

thats your viewpoint and opinion and I strongly disagree

I hope he gets what he is a demanding on another team.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I put this out on Twitter but over/under on Marner missing 4.5 games, what are YOU taking if you had to put money down on it?

 

[biotk]

Why does this only go one way?

Shouldn’t we also say there is zero chance Marner will get as much as Kucherov?

Why do team friendly contracts “not count”, but player friendly contracts set the new floor for where leaf player negotiations begin?

I am not management for the team. But you can't force a team friendly contract on anyone. You can fight for a fair contract. I wouldn't give Marner a better contract than Kucherov - unless it was in matching an OS - in which can I would be trading him a year afterward.

 

[PromisedLand]

I put this out on Twitter but over/under on Marner missing 4.5 games, what are YOU taking if you had to put money down on it?

I think Marner gets signed around the training camp; latest before the 1st game. Don't think Marner will miss a game

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I am not management for the team. But you can't force a team friendly contract on anyone. You can fight for a fair contract. I wouldn't give Marner a better contract than Kucherov - unless it was in matching an OS - in which can I would be trading him a year afterward.

These contracts are negotiations.

Sometimes the gm wins (team friendly contract), sometimes the agent wins (player friendly contract).

My question is... why does any contract where the gm wins not count as a comparable, yet any contract where the agent wins become the new FLOOR for where leaf player negotiations begin?

When you say there is NO WAY Matthews will sign for Eichel money, that should go both ways, and there should be NO WAY Marner gets anywhere near Kucherov money (including term).

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I put this out on Twitter but over/under on Marner missing 4.5 games, what are YOU taking if you had to put money down on it?

Signs during camp. Even gets in for a preseason game or two.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

lol all I am seeing is "I am a dubas faboy; and I have a dubas fetish and any critic of dubas is dumb"

You pretty well nailed it with this post.

 

[biotk]

These contracts are negotiations.

Sometimes the gm wins (team friendly contract), sometimes the agent wins (player friendly contract).

My question is... why does any contract where the gm wins not count as a comparable, yet any contract where the agent wins become the new FLOOR for where leaf player negotiations begin?

When you say there is NO WAY Matthews will sign for Eichel money, that should go both ways, and there should be NO WAY Marner gets anywhere near Kucherov money (including term).

The Leafs' had a choice with Nylander - pay him a bit more than they wanted to or have him sit the season.
When it came to Matthews' he easily would have got an OS for at least as much as he signed for in Toronto.
When it comes to Marner the team is trying to negotiate him down to a contract they can live with. I undoubtedly would not go as high as they will end up going, but such is life.

Yes, none of these three are willing to give a team friendly deal. I felt that would be the situation from the start. On other teams players have. Maybe if the Leafs' moved their organization to Florida things would be different.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The Leafs' had a choice with Nylander - pay him a bit more than they wanted to or have him sit the season.
When it came to Matthews' he easily would have got an OS for at least as much as he signed for in Toronto.
When it comes to Marner the team is trying to negotiate him down to a contract they can live with. I undoubtedly would not go as high as they will end up going, but such is life.

Yes, none of these three are willing to give a team friendly deal. I felt that would be the situation from the start. On other teams players have. Maybe if the Leafs' moved their organization to Florida things would be different.

What you're calling "discounts" on other teams, I'm calling "having a good gm".

It's not just Florida we're comparing Marner to. There are like 4 other rfa's that should be getting Marner money. Lord knows Marner will be getting the most though...

 

[57 Years No Cup]

What you're calling "discounts" on other teams, I'm calling "having a good gm".

It's not just Florida we're comparing Marner to. There are like 4 other rfa's that should be getting Marner money. Lord knows Marner will be getting the most though...

Acceptance is the final step on the road to recovery.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

What you're calling "discounts" on other teams, I'm calling "having a good gm".

It's not just Florida we're comparing Marner to. There are like 4 other rfa's that should be getting Marner money. Lord knows Marner will be getting the most though...

I think you are overestimating the impact a GM can actually have on the salary a player is willing to accept. There's only so much they can do

 

[Nineteen67]

Calgary has Gaudreau already; the would make a deal for someone perceived to be a center; they may make nylander for Tkachuk deal

That ain’t happening

 

[biotk]

What you're calling "discounts" on other teams, I'm calling "having a good gm".

It's not just Florida we're comparing Marner to. There are like 4 other rfa's that should be getting Marner money. Lord knows Marner will be getting the most though...

You can call it whatever you want. If a player is willing to sit out the year, then the player is willing to sit out the year. If a player is likely to wait for an offer sheet and sign it then what is what you have to deal with.

I said last summer that I felt that Leafs' had a problem where the (relevant) players had not bought in, and Lou was pushed out and Dubas was brought in as an effort to fix that - but the effort has failed. However, I don't for a second think that Lou (The same GM who recently signed Brock Nelson to a 6x6 deal) would have done any better. I think that there are a few teams who can push for team friendly deals because they developed a culture where players do not want to leave. I don't think that Babs and Lou created such a culture, and Babs being signed to the wealthiest deal of any coach in NHL didn't help.

Do I know that is true? No. Just as you have no idea if a "good GM" would have gotten a better deal for any of them.

But, it is far from the end of the world. Now I think the model is far from perfect, but when Dom Luszczysyn (sp?) at The Athletic recently modeled every NHL team for efficiency of contracts the Leafs were third (behind Carolina and Vegas). For Matthews' his model found that the contract had a surplus value of 22.1M for the Leafs' (meaning that he is worth about an average of 16M a year for the next 5 years - that surplus value made it one of the best contracts in the NHL). For Nylander over the remaining 5 years of his contract the surplus value was modeled to be 6.9M (meaning that he is worth about an average of 7.4M a year for the next 5 years). Brock Nelson on the other hand was determined to have a surplus value of -6.9M (meaning that he is worth about an average of 4.85M a year for the next 6 years).

 

[ULF_55]

What you're calling "discounts" on other teams, I'm calling "having a good gm".

It's not just Florida we're comparing Marner to. There are like 4 other rfa's that should be getting Marner money. Lord knows Marner will be getting the most though...

That's my thought ... marner will get the most.

My other thought is you don't repeat the same mistakes so if Matthews contract is a mistake you can't make another mistake on marner.

 

[Stephen]

Nobody in the league is willing to pay Marner what he thinks he's worth, and that is Auston Matthews money. Just anecdotally, I think it would make sense for any team to risk 4 first rounders and a massive contract to steal Auston Matthews away, but they wouldn't commit the same resources to acquiring Mitch Marner.

Now you can make the argument that Matthews vs Marner could play out like Lecavalier vs St. Louis where the small winger proves he's better than the big franchise center, in which case this thinking is wrong, but St. Louis' level of achievement was also several orders of magnitude higher than Marner's, over a much longer period of time, to be worth that investment.

 

[Notsince67]

Ownership is the one paying these bills and Dubas is just an employee and its not his money he is tossing around like candy.

I almost guarantee you there are members on that BOD tht are not felling that easy with Matthews contract mainly its length as their meal ticket is free to walk away in 5 years, or even if he stays that 3rd contract AAV at UFA rates are giving them nightmares already.. They make most of their money on Playoff revenue because players salaries only run for the regular season and eat up into profits so cap management is vital to icing a Cup competitive team and 1st round exits are not going to be acceptable results much longer as cheap ELC contracts end and double digit million contracts begin. Home game receipts into the 2, 3 and 4th rounds is where paying Matthews and Marner actually EARN their money as their payback in profits in their pockets much different when its <$1 mil or +$10 mil you're paying a player to deliver.

What they really don't want is a repeat of the Matthews situation with Marner also, and if they're hearing Marner is using the Matthews contract as his leverage against Dubas and he too might be free to walk away early on a short term deal, and handing out all this elite level salaries without getting not only players points but mainly TEAM Success. Other owners are much more willing to hand out contracts in places like Pittsburgh, Chicago and LA to their stars because you got your Stanley Cups up front and are paying for success and rewarding proven winners. In Toronto that script is flipped to pay me first and then see if its worth it and as businessmen the risk shouldn't be all on their side to assume here as it currently is. The only thing guaranteed here is player contracts and salaries and they're not tied to team success.

As businessmen they understand that you can only afford so many $11 mil players on the same team,because its not the money itself, its the long-term success and return on investment as in long playoff runs and consistent ones year after year that is their agenda and their expectations.

You don't need multiple $10-$11 mil players to miss the playoffs or exit in round #1, so the GM will not only be judged on the contracts he is handing out but in a results oriented business its the end results that matter most. So you can say MLSE is all in right now based on the contracts being handed out in the hopes it returns mutually beneficial player and ownership returns via on ice success.

Leafs make money everywhere. The arena naming rights alone almost pays for the whole roster

 

[Legion34]

I was saying that Dubas did not even contemplate making an offer to Marner camp i.e. lack of foresight.

As for 9AAV link

$72M was discussion point prior to season for Marner, Maple Leafs - Sportsnet.ca

Ah yes. This number comes out. From Kypreos. What 7 months after the fact.

We knew about Nylander and Matthews. We know about offers now. But we heard NOTHING about this until 7 months later


Sounds legit.

 

[biotk]

Leafs make money everywhere. The arena naming rights alone almost pays for the whole roster

No it doesn't. The naming rights are 40M a year CAD. So 30M USD.

 

[Notsince67]

No it doesn't. The naming rights are 40M a year CAD. So 30M USD.

Misread it. In any event, a revenue nu.ber of over 230 mm leaves them clearly in the black. Leafs dont need the playoffs to make money. A prolonged run in the playoffs would be a huge bonus. Looking at war stats, it also appears that Marner is a big factor why the leafs get into the playoffs in the first place.

 

[Notsince67]

Ah yes. This number comes out. From Kypreos. What 7 months after the fact.

We knew about Nylander and Matthews. We know about offers now. But we heard NOTHING about this until 7 months later


Sounds legit.

How much do you think they offered? What was the low ball that ferris was talking about?

 

[Legion34]

How much do you think they offered? What was the low ball that ferris was talking about?

I don’t know what they offered. I’m saying it’s dumb to take the worst reporter
Who makes an off hand comment months after the fact as proof of anything.

Regardless. Who knows what Ferris thinks is a low ball? 15 million.

He’s kind of a donkey

 

[WTFMAN99]

Perhaps that's why they take more than 1 year into consideration?

Matthews of course is a different scenario, being a 1st. overall in a good draft and winning a major award just comes with some benefits.

Draft position compensation might not be fair, 1st. rounders are often signed before the summer of their draft is over, while most picks have to prove it.

If marner was 1st. overall and won the Calder I bet his path to money would be easier ... not that 10mm is to sneeze at. How about Werenski 3rd. in Calder voting, better than marner, and he's looking for between 5-6?

I imagine that Werenski is looking at Rielly, Jones and Ristolainen deals with some inflation so likely 6x6.

 

[Fogelhund]

Nylander poor shooting had nothing to do with poor luck. Luck is when you hit 10 goal posts instead of scoring. His point total sucked because he missed the net due to poor shooting. Nothing to do with luck.​

​

No the premise that’s is flawed is your stating Nylander had bad luck last year. Like I said hitting the post 10 times is bad luck shooting into the goalies body for an easy save is piss poor shooting.

The excuses for nylander and Matthews has to stop this year.

You can't seem to keep your story straight. First you said he couldn't hit the net. Then you claimed he just shot into the goalie, and could hit the net. What do you think happened? Did Nylander suddenly forget how to shoot, after years of having a good shot? Or was it something else, that was limited to just last year?

 

[Fogelhund]

I imagine that Werenski is looking at Rielly, Jones and Ristolainen deals with some inflation so likely 6x6.

Should be closer to $7 mil, as high as $7.5 mil over six to seven years.