Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

[PromisedLand]

I'm thinking no one knows what he'll sign for.

I believe we all speculate Dubas has been working much harder on this and started earlier on this than he did with Nylander last year. And Nylander's contract came in at a reasonable rate for a 21 year old .73 PPG player. Last year marner was a 20 year old .82 PPG player, who played sheltered minutes with Bozak and van Riemsdyk one of those years. Unless of course that line is no longer considered one of the most sheltered lines in the game? Did you think it was a sheltered line when marner was on it?

This year, after playing with a franchise center marner is worth more. I suspect playing with Tavares had a major impact on his production, but that is reasonable speculation and but cannot be proven. Tavares has had that affect on players in the past.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner Met With Other Teams

Dubas is on record saying he effed up the Nylander situation. He said it in the locker clearing interviews.

Playing with Tavares had an impact for sure but how much of it was Tavares and how much of it was natural progression? Marner's production with Kadri from Jan 2018 onwards in the 2017-2018 season had been a lot higher than his career production.

5 on 5 Tavares benefits from playing with Marner as much as it is the other way around. Tavares' 5 on 5 production last season was the best he has ever had in terms of goals and points.

Player	Season	Team	Position	GP	TOI	G	A	P	P1	P/60	P1/60
JOHN.TAVARES	2009-2010	NYI	C	81	1044.3	11	12	23	21	1.32	1.21
JOHN.TAVARES	2010-2011	NYI	C	79	1157.87	16	22	38	27	1.97	1.4
JOHN.TAVARES	2011-2012	NYI	C	82	1329.5	19	29	48	40	2.17	1.81
JOHN.TAVARES	2012-2013	NYI	C	48	775.28	17	10	27	26	2.09	2.01
JOHN.TAVARES	2013-2014	NYI	C	59	927.74	15	21	36	30	2.33	1.94
JOHN.TAVARES	2014-2015	NYI	C	82	1283.34	21	25	46	40	2.15	1.87
JOHN.TAVARES	2015-2016	NYI	C	78	1209.05	22	23	45	42	2.23	2.08
JOHN.TAVARES	2016-2017	NYI	C	77	1175.95	15	21	36	25	1.84	1.28
JOHN.TAVARES	2017-2018	NYI	C	82	1151.92	18	21	39	31	2.03	1.61
JOHN.TAVARES	2018-2019	TOR	C	82	1248.63	33	27	60	50	2.88	2.4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[ULF_55]

So is health or being healthy part of the discussion while valuing contract or not?

Matthews almost always has the benefit of playing with Marner on the roster; opposition faces two lines with equal threat

while matthews gets injuired Marner is forced to put the team on his back and carry them. How is that being valued?

P.S. in the playoffs

Marner's ppg > Matthews' ppg

I suggest marner get paid more than Matthews in the playoffs then.

 

[PromisedLand]

I'm sure we can find example of health being referenced and being ignored.

Off the top of my head: Karlsson's contract this year.

If health was "ignored" Gardiner would have had a contract by now

 

[PromisedLand]

This is not lack of foresight. This is called having a brain. The claim that "Of course Marner's production was going to go up playing with Tavares, so therefore he should be paid more." Is a completely stupid argument. If it is known - and it seems to be known by everyone - that playing with Tavares leads to higher production then any GM with any brains would say: "Sorry - you are not a 94 point player - you are a player who has inflated production because you played with Tavares."

Your argument doesn't help your cause - it weakens it.



This is all pretty much meaningless and mainly coaching decisions. Prior to the season Babcock had two top lines. Matthews' has always been the much better player at 5v5 than either Tavares or Marner. Decisions were made accordingly.

Babcock when faced with the question of how to get both of those lines out on the ice soon after a PK decided that he would play Tavares and Marner at the end of PKs. This would get them out on the ice for the end of the PK and generally the first bit of ES time after a PK. Then the Matthews line would go out. This made all the more sense because the Leafs' main penalty killing forward - Hyman - was on that line. This was a decision based on Marner being on a line with Tavares and Hyman.

Playing against opposition's top lines is pretty much complete nonsense too. Matthews' did it the previous two seasons, and I have already shown several times that the difference between quality of competition between Matthews' and Marner last season was almost nonexistent. Where there was a huge difference - quality of teammates - again Tavares.

As for playing all situations - this is again mostly a situation where Babcock made a decision based on Matthews' being the better 5v5 player over the previous two seasons, and Babcock wanting to have his two big lines out consecutively during goalie pull situations for instance. In the dying minutes of close games Babcock would time it have the Matthews line go out and then the Tavares line to finish off the game. If the Leafs' had a small lead this would generally result in Matthews' line going out as the last 5v5 shift and then the Tavares line going out around the time that the opposing team pulled their goalie. This was a massive scoring advantage for Marner (who had been used in this role much less than Matthews in the previous two seasons) and was because he played with Tavares.

Tavares deserves to be paid well.



The Leafs' are not a mess right now. They are a well put together team that has one player unsigned because the player is demanding more than the Leafs' (and apparently every other team) think he is worth. It happens. The only thing the GM can do is hold his position or do something like trade the player.

That is your view of things. Contracts eventually are the result of on ice production that cannot be ignored. Signing Pastrnak to the deal that he signed might have looked comparable when he signed but he has outproduced his contract that is called foresight by their GM.

Having goalie pulled in the dying minutes of the game is not a "positive sign" for the team that means they are trailing in teh game and are about to lose.

The net negative differential on the ice means a line from the Leafs gave up more goals than they scored. Have you looked at Matthews' GF% from last season?

Hockey is just not about scoring the goals but also preventing the goals. Babcock trusts Marner more in those situations hell Marner is even PKing.

You are underselling Marner, his role on the team and his on ice duties and positive impact on the team

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

I disagree with your assessment.

Dubas lacked the foresight to see the kind of player Marner would be. He misjudged Marner as a player. Marner's importance to the team is much higher than other players on the roster except Matthews, Tavares, Rielly, Freddie

Your claim that Marner is not worth 9AAV for 8 years (rumoured contract last season) is based on your belief. I think Marner is clearly worth 9AAV for 8 years and he would have signed that deal had it not been for Dubas' lack of foresight

You are forgetting that Nylander was also negotiating last year. How do you think he would have reacted if Marner, after getting 8 more points in the previous two seasons combined, got an AAV of 9 million?

You now have to pay Nylander 8 million a year at the very least, and you now pay the both of them combined 17 million, which is about the number it's probably going to be in reality

 

[PromisedLand]

I suggest marner get paid more than Matthews in the playoffs then.

If Salaries were based on the playoffs Kadri would have gotten 1/7th of his annual salary

 

[biotk]

If health was "ignored" Gardiner would have had a contract by now

Health isn't ignored - it is understood. The Leafs' know far, far more about Matthews' health and injury than you do. They don't appear to be concerned. I would suggest they have good reasons to not be.

 

[PromisedLand]

You are forgetting that Nylander was also negotiating last year. How do you think he would have reacted if Marner, after getting 8 more points in the previous two seasons combined, got an AAV of 9 million?

You now have to pay Nylander 8 million a year at the very least, and you now pay the both of them combined 17 million, which is about the number it's probably going to be in reality

Think of it this way....

Nylander 8M
Marner 9M
Matthews 10M

all signed to 8 years for a total of 27M

now you have

Nyalander 7M
Matthews 11M
Marner (potentially) 10M

for a total of 28M for a 5 year term for Matthews and Marner and 6 year term for Nylander

I definitely take the former not the latter. Being an executive having a foresight is important and Dubas has shown serious lack of foresight

 

[PromisedLand]

Health isn't ignored - it is understood. The Leafs' know far, far more about Matthews' health and injury than you do. They don't appear to be concerned. I would suggest they have good reasons to not be.

Your quote is out of context. Follow the conversion between myself and ULF and realize the context in which the post you are quoting was made.

 

[ULF_55]

Dubas is on record saying he effed up the Nylander situation. He said it in the locker clearing interviews.

Playing with Tavares had an impact for sure but how much of it was Tavares and how much of it was natural progression? Marner's production with Kadri from Jan 2018 onwards in the 2017-2018 season had been a lot higher than his career production.

5 on 5 Tavares benefits from playing with Marner as much as it is the other way around. Tavares' 5 on 5 production last season was the best he has ever had in terms of goals and points.

Player	Season	Team	Position	GP	TOI	G	A	P	P1	P/60	P1/60
JOHN.TAVARES	2009-2010	NYI	C	81	1044.3	11	12	23	21	1.32	1.21
JOHN.TAVARES	2010-2011	NYI	C	79	1157.87	16	22	38	27	1.97	1.4
JOHN.TAVARES	2011-2012	NYI	C	82	1329.5	19	29	48	40	2.17	1.81
JOHN.TAVARES	2012-2013	NYI	C	48	775.28	17	10	27	26	2.09	2.01
JOHN.TAVARES	2013-2014	NYI	C	59	927.74	15	21	36	30	2.33	1.94
JOHN.TAVARES	2014-2015	NYI	C	82	1283.34	21	25	46	40	2.15	1.87
JOHN.TAVARES	2015-2016	NYI	C	78	1209.05	22	23	45	42	2.23	2.08
JOHN.TAVARES	2016-2017	NYI	C	77	1175.95	15	21	36	25	1.84	1.28
JOHN.TAVARES	2017-2018	NYI	C	82	1151.92	18	21	39	31	2.03	1.61
JOHN.TAVARES	2018-2019	TOR	C	82	1248.63	33	27	60	50	2.88	2.4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I'm sure they both benefitted, and everyone should accept part of that is progression, and part if playing with a franchise center.

Tavares previous high in points was 86, he went to 88.

 

[Menzinger]

I still cant mentally fathom how anyone considers the idea of giving marner 9.5 x 6 a "pay cut". One of life's great mysteries I suppose

 

[PromisedLand]

I'm sure they both benefitted, and everyone should accept part of that is progression, and part if playing with a franchise center.

Tavares previous high in points was 86, he went to 88.

Tavares and Marner's PP production was very low last season; if they had scored their career average on the PP both would have cracked the 100 points barrier last season

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

Think of it this way....

Nylander 8M
Marner 9M
Matthews 10M

all signed to 8 years for a total of 27M

now you have

Nyalander 7M
Matthews 11M
Marner (potentially) 10M

for a total of 28M for a 5 year term for Matthews and Marner and 6 year term for Nylander

I definitely take the former not the latter. Being an executive having a foresight is important and Dubas has shown serious lack of foresight

Over an 8 year term, Matthews would have gotten north of 12 million, don't know where you're getting 10 million from.

 

[PromisedLand]

Over an 8 year term, Matthews would have gotten north of 12 million, don't know where you're getting 10 million from.

then 12M for 8 years that would have still been fine instead of 11.6 for 5 years.

"term" matters man

 

[biotk]

That is your view of things.

Seems to be Leafs' management view of things too - as Marner is not signed.

Having goalie pulled in the dying minutes of the game is not a "positive sign" for the team that means they are trailing in teh game and are about to lose.

Marner and Matthews were played equally with their own goalie pulled. It playing against teams with empty nets where the difference occurred. Matthews' line would usually be out as the last 5v5 line. Tavares' line would be out against the empty net - where Marner had 7 points - including 4 goals.

The net negative differential on the ice means a line from the Leafs gave up more goals than they scored. Have you looked at Matthews' GF% from last season?

Explained easily by oiSH% and PDO.

Hockey is just not about scoring the goals but also preventing the goals. Babcock trusts Marner more in those situations hell Marner is even PKing.

Again - this is a Tavares thing. Marner was never allowed anywhere near those situations before last season. A monkey can PK.

You are underselling Marner, his role on the team and his on ice duties and positive impact on the team

Don't care. He is not worth what he is demanding.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

You are forgetting that Nylander was also negotiating last year. How do you think he would have reacted if Marner, after getting 8 more points in the previous two seasons combined, got an AAV of 9 million?

You now have to pay Nylander 8 million a year at the very least, and you now pay the both of them combined 17 million, which is about the number it's probably going to be in reality

Yeah it would have been about the same AAV, but much less term.

 

[biotk]

Think of it this way....

Nylander 8M
Marner 9M
Matthews 10M

all signed to 8 years for a total of 27M

now you have

Nyalander 7M
Matthews 11M
Marner (potentially) 10M

for a total of 28M for a 5 year term for Matthews and Marner and 6 year term for Nylander

There was zero chance Matthews would have signed the same contract as Eichel.

 

[Menzinger]

So is health or being healthy part of the discussion while valuing contract or not?

Matthews almost always has the benefit of playing with Marner on the roster; opposition faces two lines with equal threat

while matthews gets injuired Marner is forced to put the team on his back and carry them. How is that being valued?

P.S. in the playoffs

Marner's ppg > Matthews' ppg

What fantasy world do you live in where Marner single handedly carried the team on his back?

I mean did guys like Tavares, Andersen, Rielly not play a role this at all?

 

[biotk]

"term" matters man

Term has become the new obsession on here because unlike most of the previous high-level RFAs from 2006-2016 who signed for around 5 years, McDavid and Eichel signed for 8 years.

It is a dumb obsession.

 

[PromisedLand]

Seems to be Leafs' management view of things too - as Marner is not signed.

So if whatever the leafs management or the Dubas clan does is the best thing and should not be discussed or critiqued is your mantra - we don't have much to discuss anymore.

Marner and Matthews were played equally with their own goalie pulled. It playing against teams with empty nets where the difference occurred. Matthews' line would usually be out as the last 5v5 line. Tavares' line would be out against the empty net - where Marner had 7 points - including 4 goals.

May be if Matthews' line wasn't a net negative in a 5 on 5 ice-time; perhaps Matthews line would have jumped on the ice before Marner's line

Explained easily by oiSH% and PDO.

Personally I believe these stats are frekain' stupid. I will use PDO as an example.

PDO is the sum of a team's 5v5 shooting percentage (the number of goals they score divided by the number of shots on goal they generate) and their 5v5 save percentage (the number of shots their goalies stop divided by the number of shots on goal they allow)

• Weak goals given by opposition goalie (or own goalie)
• Strong saves made by opposition goalie (or own goalie)
• Strong defensive plays leading to jason blake type shots on goal versus actually a quality shot on goal where the goalie has to make an incredible save
• etc....

above mentioned points are weaknesses of the PDO stat. Good teams usually have high PDOs; and good lines have high PDOs because they generate more and give up less. so having a high PDO is not a measure of luck so to speak it seems it is a measure of how good a line/team may be.

On top of that when doing statistical analysis I would strongly recommend reading anscombe's quartet. Simple descriptive statistics have significant biases in them and should not be used blindly to make a claim.

Again - this is a Tavares thing. Marner was never allowed anywhere near those situations before last season. A monkey can PK.

Clearly Bruins' PK that stifled the Leafs in the playoffs and Leafs PK that bent over in the playoffs is a money's job

Don't care. He is not worth what he is demanding.

thats your viewpoint and opinion and I strongly disagree

 

[PromisedLand]

What fantasy world do you live in where Marner single handedly carried the team on his back?

I mean did guys like Tavares, Andersen, Rielly not play a role this at all?

Clearly there is recency bias you seem to froget 2017-2018 season; I don't blame Dubas and Nylander fanboys and marner bashers for overlooking it

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Wow this thread is not constructive! [email protected] and lets play. Or 8@11

 

[PromisedLand]

Term has become the new obsession on here because unlike most of the previous high-level RFAs from 2006-2016 who signed for around 5 years, McDavid and Eichel signed for 8 years.

It is a dumb obsession.

best player in the league signs for 8 years and apparently it is "dumb"

I think it is pretty DUMB to call long term contracts that benefit the team DUMB obssession

 

[Throw More Waffles]

There was zero chance Matthews would have signed the same contract as Eichel.

Why does this only go one way?

Shouldn’t we also say there is zero chance Marner will get as much as Kucherov?

Why do team friendly contracts “not count”, but player friendly contracts set the new floor for where leaf player negotiations begin?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

That is your view of things. Contracts eventually are the result of on ice production that cannot be ignored. Signing Pastrnak to the deal that he signed might have looked comparable when he signed but he has outproduced his contract that is called foresight by their GM.

Having goalie pulled in the dying minutes of the game is not a "positive sign" for the team that means they are trailing in teh game and are about to lose.

The net negative differential on the ice means a line from the Leafs gave up more goals than they scored. Have you looked at Matthews' GF% from last season?

Hockey is just not about scoring the goals but also preventing the goals. Babcock trusts Marner more in those situations hell Marner is even PKing.

You are underselling Marner, his role on the team and his on ice duties and positive impact on the team

Pastrnak was a proven 34 goal/70 point player (37 goal/78 point pace).

Shouldn’t he be paid as such?

Kapanen and Johnsson were ONE time 20 goal/40 point players, and they got paid as proven 20 goal/40 point players.

Proven 37 goal/78 point players sign for 6.6x6. So our proven 20 goal/60 point player should have signed for MUCH less.