Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

[ORRFForever]

Serious question: Is it too risky to get a Marner jersey right now? My birthday is next Friday and my girl is going to get me a Leafs jersey as per my request and if Marner were signed I'd likely get his jersey. Matthews wouldn't be a big disappointment or anything but Marner's style of play is more in line with how I played growing up so ideally I'd go with Marner. Any thoughts? Could this really end up with Marner never dawning the blue and white again? (I know it's possible but how probable..)

My guess : The odds of Marner staying in Toronto is about 80%+. Still... there's always a chance.

 

[ORRFForever]

I have always thought that a player should negotiate for a share of the cap. Each team has (for example) 100,000 shares and if the cap was, say, 79.5M then each share would be worth $795. If the next year the cap went up to 81.5M then each share would be worth $815.

If a player negotiated a contract for say 10,000 shares x 5 years then his salary would be 7.95M in year 1 (if the cap was 79.5M) and then increase to 8.15M the next year (assuming the cap went up to 81.5M) etc. It wouldn't be known what the player would earn during his contract because it would depend on how much the cap went up.

^^ Interesting idea. ^^

I always said, EVERY contract should be 1 year. If you have an off year, your money drops. Let the player earn their money EVERY year.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Too bad your arbitrary standards don't quite carry the weight that you seem to think. It's not about excuses, your expectations just aren't reasonable

70 points on a 6.9 contract is unreasonable for nylander
105 points on a 11.6 contract is unreasonable for Matthews

What are your expectations

 

[Bigmarycombo]

First, Pastrnak and Nylander's effective Cap hits are basically the same. Nylander is 8.75 on the $6.9 mil. Pastranak is 8.89%. Cap hit percentage is more important than dollars.

Second, Nylander had a bad year... and bad luck. Had his shooting percentage been career average, he would have actually paced for close to his career average.

Third, Nylander doesn't need to match Pastrnak's performance to justify his contract. Pastrnak has significantly outperformed his contract. You'd want to compare Nylander to all players who have similar cap hit percentages...not just one guy, who is a bit of a statistical outlier. I mean, Gretzky's last contract was an average of $4.3 million, and we just had Kadri, who was paid around the same.... how could you pay Kadri the same as Gretzky?

Matthews is the biggest question mark on this team. His health has affected his performance. When healthy, and early on in the year, he's been a guy who it's hard to argue isn't one of the top players in the league. At game 21, he was 1.57 PPG last year. 128 point "pace". which would have tied him for the league lead. It appeared as though his shoulder issues slowed him down, more and more as the season went, ultimately requiring surgery. It has been surmised, that he grew up playing in a system that didn't have the same level of physicality, and hits that the CHL, or even Europe might have. I don't know if that's true, but he has been hurt in the same way, a couple of times, and that Trouba hit wasn't much. The Matthews story is going to be one of durability. If he can't find a way to be durable, and not slowed down by injury woes, he will be a player who will earn his contract. If the injuries cause more time off, and also mean a reduced production, he'll be an issue. My personal opinion on the contract, was that they gave him 8 year money, on a 5 year deal... not a gross overpayment, but still too much. I know it's blasphemy to suggest such a thing, but if he has another injury riddled season, I might actually consider seeing what he could be traded for.

Nylander poor shooting had nothing to do with poor luck. Luck is when you hit 10 goal posts instead of scoring. His point total sucked because he missed the net due to poor shooting. Nothing to do with luck.

 

[nuck]

First, Pastrnak and Nylander's effective Cap hits are basically the same. Nylander is 8.75 on the $6.9 mil. Pastranak is 8.89%. Cap hit percentage is more important than dollars.

Second, Nylander had a bad year... and bad luck. Had his shooting percentage been career average, he would have actually paced for close to his career average.

Third, Nylander doesn't need to match Pastrnak's performance to justify his contract. Pastrnak has significantly outperformed his contract. You'd want to compare Nylander to all players who have similar cap hit percentages...not just one guy, who is a bit of a statistical outlier. I mean, Gretzky's last contract was an average of $4.3 million, and we just had Kadri, who was paid around the same.... how could you pay Kadri the same as Gretzky?

Matthews is the biggest question mark on this team. His health has affected his performance. When healthy, and early on in the year, he's been a guy who it's hard to argue isn't one of the top players in the league. At game 21, he was 1.57 PPG last year. 128 point "pace". which would have tied him for the league lead. It appeared as though his shoulder issues slowed him down, more and more as the season went, ultimately requiring surgery. It has been surmised, that he grew up playing in a system that didn't have the same level of physicality, and hits that the CHL, or even Europe might have. I don't know if that's true, but he has been hurt in the same way, a couple of times, and that Trouba hit wasn't much. The Matthews story is going to be one of durability. If he can't find a way to be durable, and not slowed down by injury woes, he will be a player who will earn his contract. If the injuries cause more time off, and also mean a reduced production, he'll be an issue. My personal opinion on the contract, was that they gave him 8 year money, on a 5 year deal... not a gross overpayment, but still too much. I know it's blasphemy to suggest such a thing, but if he has another injury riddled season, I might actually consider seeing what he could be traded for.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

^^ Interesting idea. ^^

I always said, EVERY contract should be 1 year. If you have an off year, your money drops. Let the player earn their money EVERY year.

Or be more like the NFL which only pays out the guaranteed portion of the deal. If I recall correctly ....players under the age of 25 can be bought out for 1/3 the value...try extending it to ALL players and they can sign for whatever they want...we are on the hook for only 33% of it (and no buyout proof contracts anymore).

 

[ORRFForever]

Or be more like the NFL which only pays out the guaranteed portion of the deal. If I recall correctly ....players under the age of 25 can be bought out for 1/3 the value...try extending it to ALL players and they can sign for whatever they want...we are on the hook for only 33% of it (and no buyout proof contracts anymore).

I'd hate to see the NHL players lose their guaranteed contracts, tho.

What happens to NFL players is awful.

 

[biotk]

So I actually heard something new I didn't know. Apparently Marner was willing to sign a discount type deal or at least make something work if need be, but wanted to be last to see if the others would do it as well.

This is if you believe what friends of friends say over a few beers lol

There was zero chance Marner was ever going to take discount.

 

[moon111]

Marner: So Darren, what did Dubas say?
Darren Ferris: Well he's hoping to sign you for $7.5
Marner: He's low-balling, we should ask for $8.5.
Darren Ferris: Well Dubas said he needs cap space to sign Gardiner.
Marner: Tell him we're asking for $11 and not a penny less.

 

[Kamiccolo]

There was zero chance Marner was ever going to take discount.

That's not what I've heard.

 

[nuck]

First, Pastrnak and Nylander's effective Cap hits are basically the same. Nylander is 8.75 on the $6.9 mil. Pastranak is 8.89%. Cap hit percentage is more important than dollars.

Second, Nylander had a bad year... and bad luck. Had his shooting percentage been career average, he would have actually paced for close to his career average.

Third, Nylander doesn't need to match Pastrnak's performance to justify his contract. Pastrnak has significantly outperformed his contract. You'd want to compare Nylander to all players who have similar cap hit percentages...not just one guy, who is a bit of a statistical outlier. I mean, Gretzky's last contract was an average of $4.3 million, and we just had Kadri, who was paid around the same.... how could you pay Kadri the same as Gretzky?

Matthews is the biggest question mark on this team. His health has affected his performance. When healthy, and early on in the year, he's been a guy who it's hard to argue isn't one of the top players in the league. At game 21, he was 1.57 PPG last year. 128 point "pace". which would have tied him for the league lead. It appeared as though his shoulder issues slowed him down, more and more as the season went, ultimately requiring surgery. It has been surmised, that he grew up playing in a system that didn't have the same level of physicality, and hits that the CHL, or even Europe might have. I don't know if that's true, but he has been hurt in the same way, a couple of times, and that Trouba hit wasn't much. The Matthews story is going to be one of durability. If he can't find a way to be durable, and not slowed down by injury woes, he will be a player who will earn his contract. If the injuries cause more time off, and also mean a reduced production, he'll be an issue. My personal opinion on the contract, was that they gave him 8 year money, on a 5 year deal... not a gross overpayment, but still too much. I know it's blasphemy to suggest such a thing, but if he has another injury riddled season, I might actually consider seeing what he could be traded for.

No question.they should consider it, especially if they have any doubt he will be re-signing. Any GM is loth to move a premium asset without a critical need being addressed so it seems it would need to be something like an OEL deal if they didnt have Rielly, to be a real it. But they don't have the glaring #1 LD hole that would push an OEL trade and I would be surprised if KD does anything without gun to his head. He has shown to be gung ho for a score heavy lineup so will that change? The cap era and the death fthe 2nd contract mens a GM has to be thinking in dfferent way. Is Dubas there yet?

 

[nuck]

ns

I have always thought that a player should negotiate for a share of the cap. Each team has (for example) 100,000 shares and if the cap was, say, 79.5M then each share would be worth $795. If the next year the cap went up to 81.5M then each share would be worth $815.

If a player negotiated a contract for say 10,000 shares x 5 years then his salary would be 7.95M in year 1 (if the cap was 79.5M) and then increase to 8.15M the next year (assuming the cap went up to 81.5M) etc. It wouldn't be knowhn what the player would earn during his contract because it would depend on how much the cap went up.

Thats great except every time a player has a breakout year, it could force a club to make a trade to accomodate the increased salary expectation. With no true bonus structure, the team is locked into a scheme that gives no relief if a player underperforms, but requires a substantial long term bump whenever a player has a big contract year. Players should have to meet guaranteed minimum production level if they want to absorb every cap increase like a cost of living salary bump. Otherwise, every time a player does break out, a cap club can't give him an increase because they are locked in to paying an underperforming vet.

Players should be payed on the current cap, not a speculated future increase. You want imflation protection, give your team production protection.

 

[Damisoph]

So I actually heard something new I didn't know. Apparently Marner was willing to sign a discount type deal or at least make something work if need be, but wanted to be last to see if the others would do it as well. He feels Matthews didn't take a cent of a discount, so now he won't either...Which is a pretty fair way of looking at things if I put my fandom aside.

Now, again, he still intends to play for the Leafs. I think that something is going to get done before the season starts. I think he is going to take a bridge deal or something similar to Matthews term at most money he can get. Wouldn't be surprised if he even took something like 10.16 x 6 years. Just trying to make sure he is getting the best deal possible, and won't sign until he has to.

This is if you believe what friends of friends say over a few beers lol

A discount would be nice but fair value is expected. $10m plus on any length deal is not fair value.

 

[jrgtml67]

If Marner or Ferris are smart they'd better hurry before an RFA comparable to his skill and stats signs..aka Raatenen and Point (Point is a center sometimes but wing more oft if I remember right) even if not Raatenen is very comparable.

If say he signs 7x10 or 7 by 9.75 what Marner going to say. Raatenen played less games with slightly..very slightly less points. Hes fast, he drives that line more than MacKinnon. Anyway Marner better hurry

 

[FMichael]

That's not what I've heard.

Had Marner only had a 70 sumthin pts this past season - then yeah he 'might've' taken a team friendly deal, but having been the team leader in pts these past 2 seasons...Well you can bet he'll get nothing less than $10.5 million.

If Marner or Ferris are smart they'd better hurry before an RFA comparable to his skill and stats signs..aka Raatenen and Point (Point is a center sometimes but wing more oft if I remember right) even if not Raatenen is very comparable.

If say he signs 7x10 or 7 by 9.75 what Marner going to say. Raatenen played less games with slightly..very slightly less points. Hes fast, he drives that line more than MacKinnon. Anyway Marner better hurry

The Marner camp seem perfectly comfortable in playing the waiting game...Since Dubas gave Matthews a blank check - he'll now have to do nearly the same with Marner.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

If Marner or Ferris are smart they'd better hurry before an RFA comparable to his skill and stats signs..aka Raatenen and Point (Point is a center sometimes but wing more oft if I remember right) even if not Raatenen is very comparable.

If say he signs 7x10 or 7 by 9.75 what Marner going to say. Raatenen played less games with slightly..very slightly less points. Hes fast, he drives that line more than MacKinnon. Anyway Marner better hurry

The thing is that Rantanen put up back to back 80+ point seasons.

I disagree big time that he drives that line more than MacKinnon though. It's the same as saying Marner drives the line with John Tavares on it.

Regardless he should be making more than Marner. If he signs before Mitch and it's at or under $10M then Mitch is screwed. His best bet is to take the 3 year deal we've offered now and try for the big money later.

 

[Fogelhund]

Nylander poor shooting had nothing to do with poor luck. Luck is when you hit 10 goal posts instead of scoring. His point total sucked because he missed the net due to poor shooting. Nothing to do with luck.

A shot that doesn't hit the net, is not considered a shot on goal, so this premise seems to be flawed.

 

[HolyCrap]

Had Marner only had a 70 sumthin pts this past season - then yeah he 'might've' taken a team friendly deal, but having been the team leader in pts these past 2 seasons...Well you can bet he'll get nothing less than $10.5 million.

The Marner camp seem perfectly comfortable in playing the waiting game...Since Dubas gave Matthews a blank check - he'll now have to do nearly the same with Marner.

He can only wait so long before he’s sat or moved. Ball is Leafs court as Marner doesn’t even wanna sign an offersheet. Lol. I always chuckle when other teams fans come here and try to explain stuff they have no clue about.

 

[Damisoph]

Nylander poor shooting had nothing to do with poor luck. Luck is when you hit 10 goal posts instead of scoring. His point total sucked because he missed the net due to poor shooting. Nothing to do with luck.

what do you think of the pickle they put on the top of the bun on the big mary? Friggin weird if you ask me.

Also, I think you're way off base with this post. He shot 5.4% last season, and that's just for shots that hit the net, so that will bounce back this season.

 

[Kiwi]

He can only wait so long before he’s sat or moved. Ball is Leafs court as Marner doesn’t even wanna sign an offersheet. Lol. I always chuckle when other teams fans come here and try to explain stuff they have no clue about.

Neither side is in a great position

Marner wants to get paid but doesn't want to leave and nobody has the cap space or will to offersheet him and we will struggle to get good value if we trade him

If we didn't have our history with high end RFA'S I'd feel pretty good about the Leafs position but if our history is any guide this front office couldn't hold the line if they tried

 

[HolyCrap]

Neither side is in a great position

Marner wants to get paid but doesn't want to leave and nobody has the cap space or will to offersheet him and we will struggle to get good value if we trade him

If we didn't have our history with high end RFA'S I'd feel pretty good about the Leafs position but if our history is any guide this front office couldn't hold the line if they tried

Then he sits. Simple. If a trade of value comes along deal him. Marner is a RFA. If leafs don’t wanna move him or over pay him they don’t have too. Marner will sign eventually hopefully Dubas doesn’t overpay. Willy should have sat all year too. He was terrible last season.

 

[Kiwi]

Then he sits. Simple. If a trade of value comes along deal him. Marner is a RFA. If leafs don’t wanna move him or over pay him they don’t have too. Marner will sign eventually hopefully Dubas doesn’t overpay. Willy should have sat all year too. He was terrible last season.

I seriously seriously doubt their going to be willing to have Marner sit in a cup window year

If they couldn't hold the line with Nylander your assertion that they will do that this off-season seems hopeful

 

[biotk]

Thats great except every time a player has a breakout year, it could force a club to make a trade to accomodate the increased salary expectation.

It would be almost the same as it is now. Now if a player signs, for instance, a 5 year contract you know exactly how much that player is going to cost in dollars. Under my proposed system you would know how much that player is going to cost in terms of percentage of the cap. Cap certainty is more important to most teams than dollars.

With no true bonus structure, the team is locked into a scheme that gives no relief if a player underperforms, but requires a substantial long term bump whenever a player has a big contract year.

Then teams should be smarter when it comes to the contracts they give out.

Otherwise, every time a player does break out, a cap club can't give him an increase because they are locked in to paying an underperforming vet.

Then teams should be smarter when it comes to the contracts they give out.

Players should be payed on the current cap, not a speculated future increase. You want imflation protection, give your team production protection.

Players are already looking to be paid in a way that incorporates speculated future increases. That is why players are demanding significantly higher cap hits for longer term deals - to take into consideration for how the cap is going to rise. The difficultly in speculating how much the cap is going to go up in the next few years, and the assumption that the cap increase is going to be significant is a major part of the reason that the current RFA crop are unwilling to sign long term deals.

You think that it would cost teams more - I don't - because players would be willing to sign for lower cap hits knowing that they are not going to be left behind in 4 or 5 years due to cap increases.

Let's say a player signs a deal today that is 9x8. Their cap hit today would be just over 11%. If the cap goes up by 3% a year in year 8 it would be under 9%. If instead the player signed an 8 year deal at 9.9% of the cap it would cost the team 8M in year one - a million less (when the cap is almost 20M smaller) and in year 8 (assuming 3% a year increase) it would cost the team 10M - a million more. Overall the player would earn the exact same amount.

Because the cap hit would not be decreasing year over year on long-term contracts it would take away the incentive for teams to give out those long expensive contract to veterans that often end up being a problem.

Teams ran into problems this year because the cap didn't go up as much as they expected. That could never happen under my proposal. To switch to my system players currently under long term contract would have to have their salaries adjusted downward to account for future increases in the cap, but the league has made such changes before.

So for instance if my proposal was implemented now the goal for that long term contract adjustment would be for a player like Matthews to make the exact same money over the 5 years (58.17M). If the league feels that the cap will go up by an average of 3% a year over the next 5 years Matthews cap hit would be adjusted down to 13.444% each season (from 14.63% at the time of signing) and would result in a salary of 10.957M in year one (a saving of 677K against the cap), but somewhere around 12.332M in year 5.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

This is one of the things that drives me nuts about Dubas he can't get contracts done in a reasonable amount of time at least not for his big RFA's he's great at trades I'd say Muzzin was a great move, and the Barrie trade was a steal, if for no other reason than Colorado is retaining 50% of Barrie's salary.

and when it comes to 2nd teer guys like Kapanen and Johnsson they are on great deals.

But when it comes to the big RFA's,, the core pieces Marner and Nylander he drags it out to much.

Contract negotiating for the most part is one area where I do prefer Lou over Dubas, yes I'm sure You're going to point to Zaitsev's contract, and no that's not a great deal but for every Zaitsev there is Andersen, Kadri and Rielly, all of them are on bargain deals, none of them missed time, none of them missed camp.

If Lou negotiated Nylander's deal he's not missing 2 onths and probably doesn't miss camp .

If Lou was negotiating Marner's deal it's probably done now or at least close.

Like I said Dubas is amazing at trading I don't think he's lost a trade yet but he's got to get better at negotiating contracts .

I know i'm going to get asked "well what do you want him to do pay him 10 million per for 3 years or 11 for 5?"

at this point yes because this is a cup year, this isn't 2015, this team can win a championship , I believe if Kadri doesn't get himself suspeded in game 2 they beat Boston and likely go to the finals last year, that's how close I believe they are not one player away 1 PLAY away, so get your 21 year old star winger signed and go win a championship because it's Toronto's year .

 

[Sens]

Just keep negotiating and then hope marner signs for 10.5ish for 6 years. term of 6 years is key! Matthews should have been for 6 years as well so that matthews and marner could both be up for new contracts right with 11 AAV of Tavares is off the books but that DUMBASS dubas didn't plan anything

I like how in all the complaining about Dubas... Shanahan never takes any heat lol