Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

[thewave]

Tainted name, destroys the brand. Wear Jersey in shame. Tough sell - so sad. Probably trade bait. Bye Mitches Dad.

 

[Mess]

I don't want to sound like a downer but who here thinks somebody is going to trade us "full value" for Marner whilst he's an unsigned RFA?

Imagine going to you owner and trying to explain how your going to give up multiple quality controlled assets for a guy you still need to sign and wants what's likely to be insane money? You'd gut your own team and be forced to sign Marner to whatever he wants on top of it

Never say never but if I was another owner or GM I wouldn't touch that situation with a 10 foot barge pole, unfortunately I think this is going to be our problem to solve for better or worse

The pessimist in me says this isn't going to be pretty

Well the realist in me says your thought process here is not unrealistic and grounded in valid concern.

However I might be the least surprised Leaf fan in all of Leaf Nation as to this and its eventual outcome. Last summer before any of the 3 Amigos were signed, I knew the minute the Leafs signed Tavares to his new record breaking contract, that Leafs future cap hit and resigning expectations had just been altered and JTs contract would act as a magnet to draw all the other salaries that followed up towards his, all before any of the them even stepped on the ice together.

My prognostication was (prior to any of the 3 Amigos signed).

Matthews @ $12 mil
Tavares @ $11 mil
Marner @ $10 mil
Nylander @$7.5 mil

Matthews would leap frog Tavares, to become the highest paid Leaf and then Marner playing all season beside JT as his #1C would become a >PPG player and then use Matthews new deal as his only comparable and end up getting about 80-85% of what Matthews deal would end up as, and all other NHL comparables irrelevant and Leafs internal pay scale the only thing that would matter.

So 85% of $12 mil = $10.2 mil

So when Marner's new deal results in a $10 mil AAV or more, which I believe is only a matter of time now, things will have ended just about as I predicted and also feared because the pessimist in me has some serious concerns about being Cup competitive at those cap hits and building a winning team around them with the remaining Cap space leftover after the dust settles.

That future forecasting model was all built on just 2 factors .. 1) JT's contract and 2) Young inexperienced GM vs crafty seasoned player Agents.

PS. My #'s were based on full term 8 years, as thinking Leafs players couldn't possibly get top dollar without surrendering max UFA years, so underestimating the level of which these player agents would exploit the situation to their clients advantage is my bad. That would have required a pessimistic position and not a realist one to account for that outcome.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

The battle continues between Mitch Marner's camp and the Toronto Maple Leafs and according to sources, the demands from Mitch's dad, Paul Marner appear to be getting out of hand.

Sources connected to the Maple Leafs have indicated, Paul Marner wants the exact same contract for his son, as Auston Matthews received from Kyle Dubas, but that's not where it ends. Talks include Marner's Dad demanding a letter for his son's jersey, especially if the team names Auston Matthews their new captain.

The Maple Leafs have played the past few seasons without a Captain, and it's down to either John Tavares, Morgan Rielly, or Auston Matthews, however, if Mitch Marner ends up with no letter on his jersey, his Dad has made it known his son will be looking to play else where.

First William Nylander, and now Mitch Marner, it appears Leafs GM, Kyle Dubas is getting used to dealing with controlling fathers.
.....

Rock solid evidence right here folks.

 

[DarkKnight]

Why trading Mitch Marner might be the only way forward for Leafs | The Star

Only valuable thing in that article, once again reference to how the Matthews contract is viewed around the league...awful!

Never forget a large portion of this current mess, dad and agent aside, greed aside, is on Dubas. Period.

 

[Nineteen67]

Yup. And the large Northern markets support the smaller Southern markets and were at a disadvantage being able to sign players due to taxes. It’s not fair. Hope the big markets squash it in the next CBA. Because teams like the Leafs need to flex their muscles.

The Leafs are the last team that wants to get rid of the salary cap.
They win Cups at the same rate they did pre salary cap, but they really like the guaranteed salary expenditures.

 

[Nineteen67]

Nobody will trade for him without having a deal worked out beforehand. That's a built-in assumption.

Exactly.

And, wouldn’t it be something if Marner signed a 6 year $9 million deal with his new team.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

63 points as a career high. Go

Points don’t count only goals

After all Matthews only has a career high or 73 points but that doesn’t count because he is a 40 goal scorer.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

I wish I got paid 10 million in signing bonuses to have elite zone entries and 27 points

what a life!!!

Don’t forget the most important stat

The most stick checks in the neutral zone.
One poster actually tried to justify nylander contract

The excuses are now done for nylander and Matthews

Willy has to be a 35 /35 70 point player to justify his contract and Matthews has to stay healthy and be a 55/50 105 point player.

Excuses done

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Don’t forget the most important stat

The most stick checks in the neutral zone.
One poster actually tried to justify nylander contract

The excuses are now done for nylander and Matthews

Willy has to be a 35 /35 70 point player to justify his contract and Matthews has to stay healthy and be a 55/50 105 point player.

Excuses done

Too bad your arbitrary standards don't quite carry the weight that you seem to think. It's not about excuses, your expectations just aren't reasonable

 

[diceman934]

Too bad your arbitrary standards don't quite carry the weight that you seem to think. It's not about excuses, your expectations just aren't reasonable

They are very reasonable based on the salary they are both getting otherwise we are stuck with bad contracts.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Too bad your arbitrary standards don't quite carry the weight that you seem to think. It's not about excuses, your expectations just aren't reasonable

Why not? For that kind of cash they should be carrying the team and winning playoff series. How is that not reasonable?

 

[Kamiccolo]

So I actually heard something new I didn't know. Apparently Marner was willing to sign a discount type deal or at least make something work if need be, but wanted to be last to see if the others would do it as well. He feels Matthews didn't take a cent of a discount, so now he won't either...Which is a pretty fair way of looking at things if I put my fandom aside.

Now, again, he still intends to play for the Leafs. I think that something is going to get done before the season starts. I think he is going to take a bridge deal or something similar to Matthews term at most money he can get. Wouldn't be surprised if he even took something like 10.16 x 6 years. Just trying to make sure he is getting the best deal possible, and won't sign until he has to.

This is if you believe what friends of friends say over a few beers lol

 

[Notsince67]

Too bad your arbitrary standards don't quite carry the weight that you seem to think. It's not about excuses, your expectations just aren't reasonable

70 points is a generous level to give to nylander. He signed for 70 points for 6 years. He got 27 in his 1st...a 43 point deficit.

 

[PromisedLand]

Don’t forget the most important stat

The most stick checks in the neutral zone.
One poster actually tried to justify nylander contract

The excuses are now done for nylander and Matthews

Willy has to be a 35 /35 70 point player to justify his contract and Matthews has to stay healthy and be a 55/50 105 point player.

Excuses done

Agreed!

Matthews now has the 3rd highest cap hit in the league (2nd highest among RFA contracts after McDavid) he has to be in the top 3 players in scoring while not be sporting a GF% <50 otherwise that contract would be overpaid.

Nylander gets paid more than Pastrnak; Nylander is to match Pastrnak's production or hover around 70 pts at least; otherwise he would be overpaid. One out of the 6 seasons nylander signed for is already in the trash bin with medicore performance - 60 pts ain't gonna cut it. Nylander has to be around 65+ pts player to justify that contract for the next 5 years (if he still with the Leafs).

 

[Suntouchable13]

70 points is a generous level to give to nylander. He signed for 70 points for 6 years. He got 27 in his 1st...a 43 point deficit.

A pace of 41 points over 82 games. Sure, but keep the excuses flying. We should be pissed at Willy for last season, that's very reasonable.

 

[Jot]

I think Marner's contract is being delayed to take advantage of a legal loop hole. Maybe only Dubas knows

 

[Notsince67]

A pace of 41 points over 82 games. Sure, but keep the excuses flying.

You are jumping to conclusions here. I didn't say he should have scored 70 in his first year. I said it was generous. Basted on his signing, a fair distribution would be to prorate the deal for the first. 70 x 6 = 42 points.
Weighted based on the 1st year proration, it would be distributed in a ratio that looks like 0.6,:1:1:1:1:1.
or...
45:75:75:75:75:75

He should have scored 45 points his first year and he fell short by 18. He should score 75 for the following years assuming the first year shortfall is under the bridge.
edit...after reading again, given my wording, I can see why it was misunderstood but it wasn't my intention. I still stand by 70 being generous though

 

[ORRFForever]

So I actually heard something new I didn't know. Apparently Marner was willing to sign a discount type deal or at least make something work if need be, but wanted to be last to see if the others would do it as well. He feels Matthews didn't take a cent of a discount, so now he won't either...Which is a pretty fair way of looking at things if I put my fandom aside.

I agree.

 

[Suntouchable13]

You are jumping to conclusions here. I didn't say he should have scored 70 in his first year. I said it was generous. Basted on his signing, a fair distribution would be to prorate the deal for the first. 70 x 6 = 42 points.
Weighted based on the 1st year proration, it would be distributed in a ratio that looks like 0.6,:1:1:1:1:1.
or...
45:75:75:75:75:75

He should have scored 45 points his first year and he fell short by 18. He should score 75 for the following years assuming the first year shortfall is under the bridge.

I was just agreeing with your general point that he fell way short of expectations and I don't particularly like the excuses being made for him.

 

[PromisedLand]

So I actually heard something new I didn't know. Apparently Marner was willing to sign a discount type deal or at least make something work if need be, but wanted to be last to see if the others would do it as well. He feels Matthews didn't take a cent of a discount, so now he won't either...Which is a pretty fair way of looking at things if I put my fandom aside.

Now, again, he still intends to play for the Leafs. I think that something is going to get done before the season starts. I think he is going to take a bridge deal or something similar to Matthews term at most money he can get. Wouldn't be surprised if he even took something like 10.16 x 6 years. Just trying to make sure he is getting the best deal possible, and won't sign until he has to.

This is if you believe what friends of friends say over a few beers lol

Crosby said it in his interview with spittin chicklets this summer (paraphrasing) "Taking less only works if everyone takes less"

Shanny tried to preach that and was ripped to shreds by dubas fanboys - who are still trying to justify that disaster of a nylander season and matthews' overpayment; if marner is not willing to take less when nylander and matthews got every possible cent out of the mapleleafs why should marner?

I don't blame marner if he is looking to get paid based on his production; his year over year improvement in play - especially since opposition coaches talk about how they view Marner (not a hint of nylander or matthews for that matter).

Cassidy coach that went to SCF
Cooper coach that won the presidents trophy

both are on record praising marner's hockey IQ

Cassidy:





there are plenty more from Cassidy.

Cooper:


Jon Cooper: Mitch Marner is one of smartest players NHL's ever seen


I just want a 6 year deal from Marner so that he is looking for the new contract the same time JT is off the books and we can re-sign him long term.

 

[Notsince67]

I was just agreeing with your general point that he fell way short of expectations and I don't particularly like the excuses being made for him.

I would like nothing more than to see Willy crack over 70 this year . I would say that below 70 would be disappointing

 

[ORRFForever]

Marner should NOT have insisted on negotiating last. Whoever game him that advice, needs to be fired.

 

[PromisedLand]

I think Marner's contract is being delayed to take advantage of a legal loop hole. Maybe only Dubas knows

That's my theory as well.

92M Vs 89.65M spending power. To be seen if true.

 

[Nineteen67]

Crosby said it in his interview with spittin chicklets this summer (paraphrasing) "Taking less only works if everyone takes less"

Shanny tried to preach that and was ripped to shreds by dubas fanboys - who are still trying to justify that disaster of a nylander season and matthews' overpayment; if marner is not willing to take less when nylander and matthews got every possible cent out of the mapleleafs why should marner?

I don't blame marner if he is looking to get paid based on his production; his year over year improvement in play - especially since opposition coaches talk about how they view Marner (not a hint of nylander or matthews for that matter).

Cassidy coach that went to SCF
Cooper coach that won the presidents trophy

both are on record praising marner's hockey IQ

Cassidy:





there are plenty more from Cassidy.

Cooper:
sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/jon-cooper-mitch-marner-one-smartest-players-nhls-ever-seen/

Jon Cooper: Mitch Marner is one of smartest players NHL's ever seen


I just want a 6 year deal from Marner so that he is looking for the new contract the same time JT is off the books and we can re-sign him long term.

If he agrees to 6 it has to be close to Matthews’ 11.6.

 

[ACC1224]

Marner should NOT have insisted on negotiating last. Whoever game him that advice, needs to be fired.

He didn't, it just turned out that way.