Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - 1 week to camp ... nothing

[Confucius]

Him sitting out the season is not an option either. They're all in this year, they won't want to waste Barrie and other expiring contracts. This is potentially the strongest group we'll ever muster with this core but just for this coming season.


Either he signs or is traded for a comparable talent. My guess is he gets the deal he wants.

Marner has ALL of the leverage.

He would have zero leverage if I was GM.

It would be take this or go to Europe. No way Marner kisses his NHL career off. It's a game of chicken I'd gladly bet on.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Basically the Yotes are taking the route now that the Leafs in hindsight would have been better off doing with Marner last year. Overpay a bit with a year remaining on the ELC, betting on the player. I don't think many will be surprised if Keller puts up 70+ this season on a line with Kessel. Toronto should have expected some bump from Marner with Tavares last year, though I doubt they expected quite as much, and signing Nylander could have complicated things as well.

And why would Marner sign last year knowing JT was going to be here and they’d be a better team? In fact Dubas shot down this whole ridiculous notion gas could have been done last year

 

[kb]

You guys think the Leafs have all the leverage yet Marner is going to get way more than he should because Dubas will not let him sit out this very important season. If the cost is too much he'll be traded.

Either way it forces Dubas to do something he doesn't want to do. Marner will never get paid less than 10mil (unless they bridge) per year with us and you think that means the Leafs ever had leverage? Just you wait.

This is the Nylander debacle on steroids. Worse because his numbers were inflated so much playing on the 1st line w/ Tavares, the Matthews contract and the fact that they might never have a better lineup than this coming season, so they're all in and wouldn't dare let Marner sit.

Trading him would be just as bad as giving into his demands. In no scenario does management come out of this unscathed. Leverage is all in Marner's camp.

Not really. Leverage implies control. Marner can only withhold his services. The Leafs can say no, and trade him. There is a clearly defined amount of cap space, so Dubas can't give in any more even if he wanted to. But if Marner truly wants to stay in his hometown and continue to play for his hometown team, he will have to take what is being offered. No one player is bigger than the team, and in the short term it is hurting his brand.

Doesn't sound to me like someone who has all the leverage.

 

[jrgtml67]

He would have zero leverage if I was GM.

It would be take this or go to Europe. No way Marner kisses his NHL career off. It's a game of chicken I'd gladly bet on.

To clarify..the Zurich Lion thing, it's not to play games there, the tweet specifically said practice and train.

I dont think it happens. I think if this gets too close to the season or a week left in camp we see a short term deal.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

And why would Marner sign last year knowing JT was going to be here and they’d be a better team? In fact Dubas shot down this whole ridiculous notion gas could have been done last year

When did Dubas shoot down that rumour? I see the 9 million x 8 long term deal posted all over the main boards by a select few (you know who) as proof of Dubas dropping the ball on Marner negotiations.

 

[Advanced stats]

Keller in his last two seasons has 112 points.
Marner in his last two seasons has 163 points

Marner has 45% more points.

Keller's contract is 7.15 x 8 years.

Keller contract +45% = 10.36 million over 8 years for marner, something I would do every day.

Just trying to show that the Keller deal isn't necessarily a bad thing for Marner negotiations.

 

[18leafsfan18]

You guys think the Leafs have all the leverage yet Marner is going to get way more than he should because Dubas will not let him sit out this very important season. If the cost is too much he'll be traded.

Either way it forces Dubas to do something he doesn't want to do. Marner will never get paid less than 10mil (unless they bridge) per year with us and you think that means the Leafs ever had leverage? Just you wait.

This is the Nylander debacle on steroids. Worse because his numbers were inflated so much playing on the 1st line w/ Tavares, the Matthews contract and the fact that they might never have a better lineup than this coming season, so they're all in and wouldn't dare let Marner sit.

Trading him would be just as bad as giving into his demands. In no scenario does management come out of this unscathed. Leverage is all in Marner's camp.

What's the future like ?

 

[Legion34]

He would have zero leverage if I was GM.

It would be take this or go to Europe. No way Marner kisses his NHL career off. It's a game of chicken I'd gladly bet on.

Which is probably why you aren’t the gm of a billion dollar franchise

 

[ZippityDooDa]

Not really. Leverage implies control. Marner can only withhold his services. The Leafs can say no, and trade him. There is a clearly defined amount of cap space, so Dubas can't give in any more even if he wanted to. But if Marner truly wants to stay in his hometown and continue to play for his hometown team, he will have to take what is being offered. No one player is bigger than the team, and in the short term it is hurting his brand.

Doesn't sound to me like someone who has all the leverage.

The leverage comes from the situation of desperation to win a cup and a small window in which they have the highest odds to do so. This season those odds are at their highest which is why Marner's camp feels they're in control because Dubas has less options since he won't let Marner sit the year and doesn't wish to trade him. Dubas will be forced to make Marner happy and fit him in one way or another or reluctantly trade him. It's a lose-lose for Dubas but the team should be fine either way.

 

[ZippityDooDa]

What's the future like ?

Lol don't mock me because you can't see the writing on the wall.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Keller in his last two seasons has 112 points.
Marner in his last two seasons has 163 points

Marner has 45% more points.

Keller's contract is 7.15 x 8 years.

Keller contract +45% = 10.36 million over 8 years for marner, something I would do every day.

Just trying to show that the Keller deal isn't necessarily a bad thing for Marner negotiations.

10.36 x 8

I'd sign that deal yesterday.

 

[jrgtml67]

So basically Lebrun said that GMs around the league are saying "no team is working harder to sign their Rfa than the leafs."

That said he mentioned they can work as hard as they want but if they aren't meeting or ..not close to Marner camp parameters it doesnt matter.

I feel like the end of this saga is near though

 

[Legion34]

Keller in his last two seasons has 112 points.
Marner in his last two seasons has 163 points

Marner has 45% more points.

Keller's contract is 7.15 x 8 years.

Keller contract +45% = 10.36 million over 8 years for marner, something I would do every day.

Just trying to show that the Keller deal isn't necessarily a bad thing for Marner negotiations.

Or if we go by @Throw More Waffles system of points in the year they signed.

Then marner is now worth 14.3 x 8. So anything less will be an underpayment and at least we don’t have to read incessant pages of whining

 

[Dekes For Days]

I do think your suggested "adjustments" are very grey and arbitrary in nature.

I don't remember suggesting specific adjustments. I just remember suggesting that adjustments for term would be necessary, because we don't have enough information to create a valuation otherwise.

I prefer to rely on the relevant evidence and apples-to-apples comparisons.

Except there are no apples to apples comparisons possible in this situation.

Meier wasn't a significantly worse player than Kucherov at the time each player signed their 3-year deals. In fact, their platform years are almost identical: 77Gp-30G-36A-66P vs. 78GP-30G-36A-66P.

Which is why we don't just blindly rely on raw points in a contract year to determine contract value or quality of player.

Does this mean we can't compare the Nylander contract to others as well? Should we bin all contract negotiations into "hardballed" and "softballed"?

Kucherov's bridge contract is much, much, much more out of line of contract trends than Nylander's. Kucherov's bridge is a significant outlier compared to like 99% of contracts.

 

[Suntouchable13]

The leverage comes from the situation of desperation to win a cup and a small window in which they have the highest odds to do so. This season those odds are at their highest which is why Marner's camp feels they're in control because Dubas has less options since he won't let Marner sit the year and doesn't wish to trade him. Dubas will be forced to make Marner happy and fit him in one way or another or reluctantly trade him. It's a lose-lose for Dubas but the team should be fine either way.

Dubas is in a tough spot. I just don't know how he can afford to cave here and give him whatever he wants. Why is Marner forcing Dubas to possibly have to trade Kap or AJ or Willy to clear more cap space and sign Marner to a contract he can't possibly live up to? It reeks of selfishness, not a desire to actually win in Toronto.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Agreed GMs would love to go and get these guys signed no question, but Player agents are slow rolling this because of the long term benefit to their clients.

The Matthew's contract sent shock waves through the NHL GM community as it altered the market for RFA signings from 8 year terms coming out of ELC (like McDavid, Eichel, Draisaitl etc) to now top dollar AAV for just 5 years.

Now Marner is using that contract to leverage he also gets top $$ for as few years as possible (protecting their UFA years) for their next deal.

So its in the best interest of all RFA currently to allow Marner to reset the market further for their own benefits as the numbers being tossed out for Mitch at $10.5-$11 mil X 5 years.

Why would a guy like Brayden Point sign for $8-8.5 X 8 years only to see Marner a comparable get +$10 mil for 3 years less term commitment? Let Marner go first just like Mitch allowed Matthews to sign first (by saying he wants to go 3rd among Leafs 3 Amigos) because his agent knew Matthews contract could only raise the bar from him?

These other RFA have greater leverage as Marner is a better comparable for themselves than Matthews contract for a franchise #1C was and only Marner seems to be leveraging that deal to get his next deal against Dubas.

Report: Agents await Marner to set market

Negotiations between the Toronto Maple Leafs and restricted free agent Mitch Marner are being watched closely by agents around the NHL this summer. According to Joe Smith of The Athletic, agents are waiting for Marner to sign with the Maple Leafs and set their market before pursuing deals for their RFA clients.

TSN.ca Staff

https://www.tsn.ca/report-nhl-agent...fs-f-mitch-marner-to-set-rfa-market-1.1344031

This idea that Dubas is a weakling who will roll over at any minute is kind of ridiculous. Nylander called him on Dec 1st to accept his final offer just under $7M AAV x 6 at the last minute. Nylander probably wanted 5 years but instead compromised on 6. Marner should take note.

The Matthews contract..........well that's another story but my guess is that ownership/Shanny ordered him to get it done.

 

[ZippityDooDa]

This idea that Dubas is a weakling who will roll over at any minute is kind of ridiculous. Nylander called him on Dec 1st to accept his final offer just under $7M AAV x 6 at the last minute. Nylander probably wanted 5 years but instead compromised on 6. Marner should take note.

The Matthews contract..........well that's another story but my guess is that ownership/Shanny ordered him to get it done.

Nylanders contract was fine. Matthews contract along with other events set the precipice for Marner's current contract difficulties.

If Dubas can sign Marner below 10mil on at least a 5 year term he'll have the collective Leafs nation figuratively blowing him, can't see it though.

 

[ShaneFalco]

When did Dubas shoot down that rumour? I see the 9 million x 8 long term deal posted all over the main boards by a select few (you know who) as proof of Dubas dropping the ball on Marner negotiations.

I’d post but not on my laptop. Google it - it’s on the hot stove too

 

[Advanced stats]

Or if we go by @Throw More Waffles system of points in the year they signed.

Then marner is now worth 14.3 x 8. So anything less will be an underpayment and at least we don’t have to read incessant pages of whining

Throw waffle guy is Darren Ferris I'm pretty sure

 

[RoadWarrior]

So basically Lebrun said that GMs around the league are saying "no team is working harder to sign their Rfa than the leafs."

That said he mentioned they can work as hard as they want but if they aren't meeting or ..not close to Marner camp parameters it doesnt matter.

I feel like the end of this saga is near though

It's near because if it drags past October 15 the leafs will be forced to trade him as they couldn't fit him under the cap.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Lol don't mock me because you can't see the writing on the wall.

You have posted nothing but what might happen in the future.

If you know all those future things, why wouldn't you know everything else ?

 

[Legion34]

This idea that Dubas is a weakling who will roll over at any minute is kind of ridiculous. Nylander called him on Dec 1st to accept his final offer just under $7M AAV x 6 at the last minute. Nylander probably wanted 5 years but instead compromised on 6. Marner should take note.

The Matthews contract..........well that's another story but my guess is that ownership/Shanny ordered him to get it done.

But he has glasses!

 

[Legion34]

Throw waffle guy is Darren Ferris I'm pretty sure

He’s TWS I’m pretty sure.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Now I see why opposing coaches and management praise other players. They make the player feel like he is the shit so maybe his team won't be able to sign him at a reasonable number. All season long opposing coaches/players/managment were fellating Marner. Now his ego is huge.

 

[Duke Silver]

I don't remember suggesting specific adjustments. I just remember suggesting that adjustments for term would be necessary, because we don't have enough information to create a valuation otherwise.

How do you suggest making an adjustment to a 4-year contract to make it comparable to a 3-year contract? Without specifics, it remains an arbitrary proposition.

Except there are no apples to apples comparisons possible in this situation.

So don't try to turn an orange into an apple.

Which is why we don't just blindly rely on raw points in a contract year to determine contract value or quality of player.

Not sure where "blindly" came from but thanks for the condescension. I was just taking issue with you saying Meier was a "significantly worse" player than Kucherov. We know production (raw + GP & 60 rates) is the primary thing that contract valuations are based on. Obviously there's additional context to be looked at: I never said there wasn't.

Kucherov's bridge contract is much, much, much more out of line of contract trends than Nylander's. Kucherov's bridge is a significant outlier compared to like 99% of contracts.

Kucherov's contract is similar to other 3-year bridge contracts signed by Mark Stone, Claude Giroux and Tyler Johnson. All three players had 0.70-0.74 ppgs during their ELC's and signed for between 4.8-6.5% of the cap on their second deals. Stone's deal was signed the year prior, Johnson's two years before. Johnson's was on the lower end of the spectrum (4.8%) likely because he had just 96 games to his name at the time.