Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - 1 week to camp ... nothing

[moon111]

I don't like the $9.5 million that's rumored be offered, but so be it.

Think Dubas and the Leafs have been quite accommodating to players such as sending Josh Leivo to Vancouver.
The Leafs have been classy organization, but really think enough is enough.
I wouldn't be upset if they signed Marner and then dealt him immediately after.
Think the return could be worth more then Marner.
He's the type of player that could draw fans to a club that isn't competitive and think a team in that
situation might over-pay. I'm sure Quebec/Nordiques aren't upset by losing Lindros in hindsight.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Marner's contract demands are nothing more than the effect of the previous Dubas over pays, including JT(although we all accept you over pay a UFA). People lose the plot the minute they view Marner in a vacuum. Team comparables have set the stage, not what TB or Carolina have done.

Yet clearly Dubas does not feel the same compulsion or need to "overpay" Marner, or does not think he overpaid Matthews and JT (and probably Nylander too given the structure of his contract) and is not going to make an exception for Marner. Mitch can pick his poison, he's not getting his money either way.

 

[hockeywiz542]

LeBrun: Might not be a team working harder to resign its RFA than Toronto with Marner

Pierre LeBrun joins Leafs Lunch to discuss the latest on the negotiations with some of the notable RFAs, and how Toronto’s situation with Mitch Marner compares with Colorado’s attempt to re-sign Mikko Rantanen.

 

[Ciccio1980]

Up until last year the difference between marner and nylander was minor it changed because of games missed by nylander and the tavares effect

 

[Duke Silver]

You're forgetting Panarin's ~8ish % 2 year deal also O'reilly @ 7.78 x 2 (6.34m) (hadn't cracked 60 points, one season above 30)

And neither Panarin nor Kucherov had the pedigree of Marner at time of signing

Those are two-year deals.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I should have said "recent precedent". You had to reach back all the way to 2006 for those.

Because it's an incredibly rare term length for players of this caliber. Or even players anywhere close to this caliber.

In reality, there is no actual precedent for a 3-year deal for a Marner-level player. Which is why, as I said, it needs to be adjusted from other comparables with other term lengths.

Meier is obviously going to get a higher % of cap on a 4-year deal than Kucherov is going to get on a 3-year deal.

Meier is also a significantly worse player, so no, it's not obvious.

Kucherov faced the same restrictions that all other RFAs face when it comes to their negotiating power. You can't just throw that out because Tampa played hardball. It injects way too much subjectivity.

Believe what you want, but everything around that situation was incredibly unique. He took it last minute because there was no other option, and Kucherov has gone on record saying he regrets it and should have sat out.
It is an extreme outlier compared to basically any contract, so to use that as a comparable is setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[MyBudJT]

I don't even know where to begin with such flawed logic. You're comparing Marner's upcoming season and saying that his production will be worth more than Nylander's production in year X of his deal so he should be paid more than Nylander's UFA year which nobody's know what percentage of the future cap that may be.

It's all good my man. I dont think we have any common ground to continue this discussion. Cheers.

I don't know if there is as much weight in UFA year as you're making it out to be. All that matters when trying to build a good team is to get good value from your players. Essentially, you want good production at a low AAV. Why does UFA year matter?

All I was doing was setting a base value for Marner this upcoming season, and using Nylander as an example. We would get good value out of Marner at 7.5 mil on a 1 year deal if he does anything close to what he did last season. 90+ points at 7.5 mil is really good value.

Is there anything here you disagree with?

 

[Duke Silver]

Because that’s how Far back you have to reach to find comparable players? That’s not a bad thing?

The landscape is entirely different.

 

[kb]

T - 9 and counting until we get to the Sept. 13th opening of training camp.

Team cap situation:

LTIR: Horton $5.3 + Clarkson $5.25 = $10.55 m
Projected LTIR Used = $2.9 m

$10.55 - $2.9 = $7.65 m

I think the above numbers are correct, but I'm sure others will chime in with whatever.

IF the numbers are correct, a bridge contract would appear to be the solution given the remaining cap ($7.65 m). I guess we can find another LTIR player as well.

Comments? Maybe I've missed something?

The roster hasn't been set yet, so there is more than $7.65 million. Plus they won't run a full 23 man roster.

 

[4thline]

Those are two-year deals.

Which would be higher if they were three year deals.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Well. to be consistent.
This time last year, I said if Nylander wasn't signed, Dubas should have either said sign by this date, or sit the season/trade him.
so. if Marner doesn't sign - sit out the entire season, or trade him. don't have time for this nonsense.

 

[Duke Silver]

Because it's an incredibly rare term length for players of this caliber. Or even players anywhere close to this caliber.

In reality, there is no actual precedent for a 3-year deal for a Marner-level player. Which is why, as I said, it needs to be adjusted from other comparables with other term lengths.


Meier is also a significantly worse player, so no, it's not obvious.


Believe what you want, but everything around that situation was incredibly unique. He took it last minute because there was no other option, and Kucherov has gone on record saying he regrets it and should have sat out.
It is an extreme outlier compared to basically any contract, so to use that as a comparable is setting yourself up for disappointment.

I do think your suggested "adjustments" are very grey and arbitrary in nature. I prefer to rely on the relevant evidence and apples-to-apples comparisons.

Meier wasn't a significantly worse player than Kucherov at the time each player signed their 3-year deals. In fact, their platform years are almost identical: 77Gp-30G-36A-66P vs. 78GP-30G-36A-66P.

I don't think the situation's all that unique. Plenty of players have missed training camp due to contract disputes. And it wasn't last minute: he just didn't want to miss any more regular season games and signed on Oct 11. I don't think Kucherov's weak stomach should exclude him in talks about comparables. Does this mean we can't compare the Nylander contract to others as well? Should we bin all contract negotiations into "hardballed" and "softballed"?

 

[AlanHowick]

Please help me understand...

Is there any benefit to waiting till the 1st day of the season to sign Marner?

Are Clarkson and Horton's salary cap hits available right now? Or do thy have to wait for the season to start?

If the Leafs wanted to sign Marner right now, for $10 mil per season, could they actually do it?

Thanks in advance.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Please help me understand...

Is there any benefit to waiting till the 1st day of the season to sign Marner?

Are Clarkson and Horton's salary cap hits available right now? Or do thy have to wait for the season to start?

If the Leafs wanted to sign Marner right now, for $10 mil per season, could they actually do it?

Thanks in advance.

I don't see any benefit to waiting until the season starts, but I could be wrong. We could put Clarkson and Horton on LTIR right now and gain the space, so if we wanted to sign Marner for $10M then we can. Like I said, I could be wrong though.

 

[ZippityDooDa]

Well. to be consistent.
This time last year, I said if Nylander wasn't signed, Dubas should have either said sign by this date, or sit the season/trade him.
so. if Marner doesn't sign - sit out the entire season, or trade him. don't have time for this nonsense.

Him sitting out the season is not an option either. They're all in this year, they won't want to waste Barrie and other expiring contracts. This is potentially the strongest group we'll ever muster with this core but just for this coming season.

Either he signs or is traded for a comparable talent. My guess is he gets the deal he wants.

Marner has ALL of the leverage.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I think I disagree with absolutely everything you said here.

Him sitting out the season is not an option either. They're all in this year, they won't want to waste Barrie and other expiring contracts. This is potentially the strongest group we'll ever muster with this core but just for this coming season.

Barrie or Muzzin will be resigned and the promotion of Sandin and Lily makes next year's team and the team going forward basically as good (Depending on how they progress).

Either he signs or is traded for a comparable talent. My guess is he gets the deal he wants.

Not sure he will get the deal he wants, likely a compromise from both sides.

Marner has ALL of the leverage.

Leafs have all the leverage. Marner can only lean on not playing this year, which would if anything diminish his value for the season he comes back.

 

[MyBudJT]

Please help me understand...

Is there any benefit to waiting till the 1st day of the season to sign Marner?

Are Clarkson and Horton's salary cap hits available right now? Or do thy have to wait for the season to start?

If the Leafs wanted to sign Marner right now, for $10 mil per season, could they actually do it?

Thanks in advance.

I don't see any benefit to waiting until the season starts, but I could be wrong. We could put Clarkson and Horton on LTIR right now and gain the space, so if we wanted to sign Marner for $10M then we can. Like I said, I could be wrong though.

I think Dubas responded to his question in one of his interviews yesterday, and said that Pridham has gone through and identified that there were no benefits in waiting until the season started. I think it was the interview with Bobby Mac.

 

[PromisedLand]

The reason other RFA's are waiting on Marner, is because everyone knows Dubas will overpay. It's pretty simple, if they actually thought the Leafs would hold firm on a low number, agents would be jumping to get in before Marner signs. The whole league knows Dubas will overpay.

It is pretty obvious what the market thinks of Dubas' "management" when it comes to high profile RFA negotiations

Strike 1: Nylander
Strike 2: Matthews
Strike 3: Marner?

And is he going to be "out"
?

 

[Nooodles]

I think Dubas responded to his question in one of his interviews yesterday, and said that Pridham has gone through and identified that there were no benefits in waiting until the season started. I think it was the interview with Bobby Mac.

bingo

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Please help me understand...

Is there any benefit to waiting till the 1st day of the season to sign Marner?

Are Clarkson and Horton's salary cap hits available right now? Or do thy have to wait for the season to start?

If the Leafs wanted to sign Marner right now, for $10 mil per season, could they actually do it?

Thanks in advance.

I've asked the same question without response. My guess is there's no benefit at all and we really are dealing with a stalemate.

 

[AlanHowick]

I think Dubas responded to his question in one of his interviews yesterday, and said that Pridham has gone through and identified that there were no benefits in waiting until the season started. I think it was the interview with Bobby Mac.

Thanks for your replies.

I wonder if they have a deal in place... and are just causing the media and fans to speculate and get all stressed out... some sort of psychological manipulation. It would also delay other teams in signing their RFAs.
Tin foil hat stuff!

 

[Matthews34]

It is pretty obvious what the market thinks of Dubas' "management" when it comes to high profile RFA negotiations

Strike 1: Nylander
Strike 2: Matthews
Strike 3: Marner?

And is he going to be "out"
?

The Nylander contract is more like a foul tip

 

[kb]

Him sitting out the season is not an option either. They're all in this year, they won't want to waste Barrie and other expiring contracts. This is potentially the strongest group we'll ever muster with this core but just for this coming season.

Either he signs or is traded for a comparable talent. My guess is he gets the deal he wants.

Marner has ALL of the leverage.

No, he actually has none. Because the Leafs are all in this year and have a defined amount of cap space, they will trade him if he doesn't sign by pick drop. Dubas never said he wouldn't trade him, just that he hasn't explored that avenue yet.

 

[jrgtml67]

Keller got 7.5 over 8yrs...that kind of messes things up. Hard to say what to think about Dubas and his Tim and Sid interview.

 

[DarkKnight]

Yet clearly Dubas does not feel the same compulsion or need to "overpay" Marner, or does not think he overpaid Matthews and JT (and probably Nylander too given the structure of his contract) and is not going to make an exception for Marner. Mitch can pick his poison, he's not getting his money either way.

The numbers talked about are all over pays, it’s just a question of mild or massive. We’ve already been sanitized to accept a high number as reasonable.