Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - 1 week to camp ... nothing

[ToMaLe]

Heard at the bar Saturday night about rumours of a Marner for Laine trade. I cant find anything on it, has anyone else heard these rumours? Probably just beer talk lol. My guess is , its just that, rumours.

 

[MyBudJT]

That's exactly what this whole discussion started with. JT absolutely helped Marner achieve his point totals. As did Matthews with Nylander.

If that isn't what you are arguing then why respond to my original post.



It also doesn't mean Marner would get 90+ without Tavares.

Just like you can't say Nylander would or wouldn't achieve 60+ points with Matthews.

But Marner has a history of producing away from Tavares, Nylander doesn't have a history of producing away from Matthews.

Poor example, dude.

 

[Marshy]

I understand this train of thought, but I think its backwards.

Why would a 94 point player sign anything less than 7.5M, or less than Nylander for that matter? That at the very least should be the bottom dollar, and then you work your way up.

My thoughts:

6 x 10.816
5 x 10.25
3 x 9.16
2 x 8.25
1 x 7.5

Nylander got 7M AAV by signing for 6 years. You think 7 or 7 5M was available to Willy on a 1 year deal?

If Marner signs for 6 years he's getting north of 10M for sure. If he's not giving term he's not getting over 8.5 on a three year bridge and and a 2 year deal is less $ and 1 year would get less $ again. I don't think 1 or a 2 year deal would even be offered by the team anyway though.

 

[18leafsfan18]

But Marner has a history of producing away from Tavares, Nylander doesn't have a history of producing away from Matthews.

Poor example, dude.

You literally just said JT helped Marner get to his career point totals last season, and that Matthews helped Nylander get to his career high point totals.

Original Post:

Dubas Haters:

"Nylander can only produce with Matthews and Matthews improved his stats".

"JT didn't help Marner get his career high stats, Marner would have had 90 points without him".

Seems to me like you finally circled back to the original post and realized you were arguing something that you manufactured yourself.

Basically a perfect example, dude.

 

[MattySnipes]

Eichel and McDavid didn't get knocked out for several games on a typical hit (Trouba hit). I also think that Matthews was battling more injuries than we know this season (which is only a positive, just imagine what he can do if/when healthy)... I met a person on the Leafs medical staff this summer, and he was political and didn't want to talk much leafs stuff, but one thing he did say was "I'd like to see what Matthews can do when healthy".

We know as fans what Matthews is capable of when healthy. Don't need hearsay from what medical personnel said, no offense. He's easily a top 2 player in the league when he comes right out of the gate, plays some games, and stays healthy. He does it all. Stats and charts have shown though that he tends to slow down after his initial return or after a few games segment, which is what he needs to work on big time. That's what is stopping him from being one of the best (along with awkward/freak injuries). He has to keep it sustainable and produce every game. He's played about ~85% of Leafs' games so far, which is not that bad tbh.

Regards to your mentioning of the Trouba hit which you say was a typical NHL hit (debatable). Auston has said he saw Trouba out of the corner of his eye but he wanted to rush the net and felt he had a great chance to bury that as a goal so he took the chance. We all know what happened. Jacob took a running start and skated into him quite fast and hit him awkwardly causing shoulder damage.

The weird Kronwall hit also did some damage because it came later and he went back first into the boards. Just awkward plays. You hate to see it happen but it did. All you can hope is he learns how to take these hits or he puts himself in a better position in the future not to hurt himself.

For a man of his size, his skills, man he could be something so special if everything connects. Let's see what's in store this season.

 

[MyBudJT]

Nylander got 7M AAV by signing for 6 years. You think 7 or 7 5M was available to Willy in a 1 year deal?

If Marner signs for 6 years he's getting Nmnorth of 10 for sure. If he's not giving term he's not getting over 8.5 on a three year bridge and and a 2 year deal is less and 1 year would get less again. I don't think 1 or a 2 year deal would even be offered by the team anyway though.

No, I'm saying that Marner on a 1 year deal should have a higher salary than Nylander's 7 mil AAV. Marner next season should be better than Nylander in any of his 5 remaining years at 7 mil IMHO.

 

[MyBudJT]

You literally just said JT helped Marner get to his career point totals last season, and that Matthews helped Nylander get to his career high point totals.

Original Post:



Seems to me like you finally circled back to the original post and realized you were arguing something that you manufactured yourself.

Basically a perfect example, dude.

Again, this goes back to your lack of reading comprehension.

There is a difference between saying "Nobody is suggesting there was no benefit for Marner to play with JT. Playing with JT would no doubt make things easier. But it doesn't necessarily mean Marner wouldn't have achieved 90+ points while playing on a different line." and saying "JT helped Marner get to his career points totals". My stance all along is we don't know what Marner would have produced away from Tavares, but we do know that he has produced at a 95 point pace in the past. Its very possible he still would have hit the 90+ point plateau.

 

[MyBudJT]

We know as fans what Matthews is capable of when healthy. Don't need hearsay from what medical personnel said, no offense. He's easily a top 2 player in the league when he comes right out of the gate, plays some games, and stays healthy. He does it all. Stats and charts have shown though that he tends to slow down after his initial return or after a few games segment, which is what he needs to work on big time. That's what is stopping him from being one of the best (along with awkward/freak injuries). He has to keep it sustainable and produce every game. He's played about ~85% of Leafs' games so far, which is not that bad tbh.

Regards to your mentioning of the Trouba hit which you say was a typical NHL hit (debatable). Auston has said he saw Trouba out of the corner of his eye but he wanted to rush the net and felt he had a great chance to bury that as a goal so he took the chance. We all know what happened. Jacob took a running start and skated into him quite fast and hit him awkwardly causing shoulder damage.

The weird Kronwall hit also did some damage because it came later and he went back first into the boards. Just awkward plays. You hate to see it happen but it did. All you can hope is he learns how to take these hits or he puts himself in a better position in the future not to hurt himself.

For a man of his size, his skills, man he could be something so special if everything connects. Let's see what's in store this season.

Just because a player plays a hockey game doesn't mean they are healthy... players play banged up all the time. Thats all I was saying, I believe Matthews was banged up for much of last season, which impacted his on-ice play.

No doubt, when he's healthy, he's is among the best of the best. But when he's banged up, he's simply not.

 

[18leafsfan18]

We know as fans what Matthews is capable of when healthy. Don't need hearsay from what medical personnel said, no offense. He's easily a top 2 player in the league when he comes right out of the gate, plays some games, and stays healthy. He does it all. Stats and charts have shown though that he tends to slow down after his initial return or after a few games segment, which is what he needs to work on big time. That's what is stopping him from being one of the best (along with awkward/freak injuries). He has to keep it sustainable and produce every game. He's played about ~85% of Leafs' games so far, which is not that bad tbh.

Regards to your mentioning of the Trouba hit which you say was a typical NHL hit (debatable). Auston has said he saw Trouba out of the corner of his eye but he wanted to rush the net and felt he had a great chance to bury that as a goal so he took the chance. We all know what happened. Jacob took a running start and skated into him quite fast and hit him awkwardly causing shoulder damage.

The weird Kronwall hit also did some damage because it came later and he went back first into the boards. Just awkward plays. You hate to see it happen but it did. All you can hope is he learns how to take these hits or he puts himself in a better position in the future not to hurt himself.

For a man of his size, his skills, man he could be something so special if everything connects. Let's see what's in store this season.

Taylor Hall is another example, he had some bad "crashes" or accidents in his first few years, and learnt to avoid some of them or just take a bit of a different path to the puck.

Mostly freak accidents on both examples though.

 

[Cor]

Clayton Keller had 47 points last year

 

[4thline]

T - 9 and counting until we get to the Sept. 13th opening of training camp.

Team cap situation:

LTIR: Horton $5.3 + Clarkson $5.25 = $10.55 m
Projected LTIR Used = $2.9 m

$10.55 - $2.9 = $7.65 m

I think the above numbers are correct, but I'm sure others will chime in with whatever.

IF the numbers are correct, a bridge contract would appear to be the solution given the remaining cap ($7.65 m). I guess we can find another LTIR player as well.

Comments? Maybe I've missed something?

Cap friendly's current numbers are based on a(n) (0ver) full roster.

Add back money for the player Marner bumps ~675k
Add back money for the Dermott replacement that will be covered by his LTIR ~675k
Add back money for the Hyman replacement that will be covered by his LTIR ~725k
(Option) Add back money to drop to a 22man roster ~775

Total Add back - 2.85
+7.65
=10.5

 

[18leafsfan18]

Again, this goes back to your lack of reading comprehension.

There is a difference between saying "Nobody is suggesting there was no benefit for Marner to play with JT. Playing with JT would no doubt make things easier. But it doesn't necessarily mean Marner wouldn't have achieved 90+ points while playing on a different line." and saying "JT helped Marner get to his career points totals". My stance all along is we don't know what Marner would have produced away from Tavares, but we do know that he has produced at a 95 point pace in the past. Its very possible he still would have hit the 90+ point plateau.

So your stance is that we don't know that Marner wouldn't have got 90+ points playing without JT.

But, we know for sure Nylander wouldn't get over 60+ points playing without Matthews.

Based on Marner's best stretch of hockey and Nylander's worst stretch of hockey.

See how the entire post is starting to make sense.

Compare apples to apples. If we don't know Marner wouldn't hit 90+ without JT, we also don't know if Nylander would hit 60+ without Matthews.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Clayton Keller had 47 points last year

Marner had 94 points, twice as much. Hmmm ....

 

[MyBudJT]

So your stance is that we don't know that Marner wouldn't have got 90+ points playing without JT.

But, we know for sure Nylander wouldn't get over 60+ points playing without Matthews.

Based on Marner's best stretch of hockey and Nylander's worst stretch of hockey.

See how the entire post is starting to make sense.

Compare apples to apples. If we don't know Marner wouldn't hit 90+ without JT, we also don't know if Nylander would hit 60+ without Matthews.

Pretty much.

You're not comparing apples to apples, though.

Marner has shown a history of producing at a 90+ point pace over a significant sample away from JT. He has also shown that he can be a line driver on multiple lines. Nylander has not.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Clayton Keller had 47 points last year

Dubas is to blame obviously, what else has to happen before people get this?

 

[IPS]

So your stance is that we don't know that Marner wouldn't have got 90+ points playing without JT.

But, we know for sure Nylander wouldn't get over 60+ points playing without Matthews.

Based on Marner's best stretch of hockey and Nylander's worst stretch of hockey.

See how the entire post is starting to make sense.

Compare apples to apples. If we don't know Marner wouldn't hit 90+ without JT, we also don't know if Nylander would hit 60+ without Matthews.

TOI and offensive usage is the main driver of production.

Saying Nylander won't hit 60 points without Matthews when he's being used on the 3rd line seeing minimal PP time says absolutely nothing. I don't expect MyBudJT to go here though.

 

[justafan22]

Dubas is to blame obviously, what else has to happen before people get this?

uhh.. Keller isn't a comparable for Nylander, Rantanen or Point.

 

[IPS]

Marner has shown a history of producing at a 90+ point pace over a significant sample away from JT.

Holy f*** does this myth need to die already.

It was 33 games where he produced 37 points with it primarily being on a red-hot PP unit that he wasn't able to replicate the success on with a different unit.

Calling that a "significant" sample is really stretching it. I can pull up 30 game sample sizes and claim Laine is a 70+ goal scorer.

 

[BillyD]

Clayton Keller had 47 points last year

as reported, the Leafs offered Marner 8 X 10M or $23M more over the life of the contract than Keller got

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Clayton Keller had 47 points last year

And Marner was going to sign for 8x8 knowing he was going to be playing with Tavares the next year? Not to mention the fact that he apparently lost his appetite for 8 year deals over the course of the year...

 

[MyBudJT]

Holy **** does this myth need to die already.

It was 33 games where he produced 37 points with it primarily being on a red-hot PP unit that he wasn't able to replicate the success on with a different unit.

Calling that a "significant" sample is really stretching it. I can pull up 30 game sample sizes and claim Laine is a 70+ goal scorer.

40 games and 46 points when you include playoffs. Also, the success of our PP in that time frame isn't all that much different than Tampa's success on the PP all season long this past season....

Stop feeding us with lies.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Cap friendly's current numbers are based on a(n) (0ver) full roster.

Add back money for the player Marner bumps ~675k
Add back money for the Dermott replacement that will be covered by his LTIR ~675k
Add back money for the Hyman replacement that will be covered by his LTIR ~725k
(Option) Add back money to drop to a 22man roster ~775

Total Add back - 2.85
+7.65
=10.5

OK thanks.

Isn't timing a factor though? I'm not sure when Dermott or Hyman return, but I'm guessing its not game 1, or possibly not October even.

Marner's replacement of $675 k would be the only saving if Marner signs early season (i.e., sooner versus later). IF we are talking about Marner get signed reasonably soon and not missing a chunk of the season, then we'd have about $8.3 m (approx) available unless we go with a 22-man roster. I think this is correct, but of course, I'm open to feedback.

 

[DarkKnight]

The bolded literally proves my point.

The bonifide C man definitely increased his point totals. As did Nylander's bonifide C man (Matthews).

Posters who argue JT didn't increase Marner's stats, and also argue that Matthews increased Nylander's is who I am targeting with that post. Not you.

I would argue JT/Marner was a mutually beneficial relationship. Also, good wingers player with good centers, there is nothing unique here.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

as reported, the Leafs offered Marner 8 X 10M or $23M more over the life of the contract than Keller got

Was that this year or last year? If Marner turned down 80 mill last year then we probably will never sign him.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I would argue JT/Marner was a mutually beneficial relationship. Also, good wingers player with good centers, there is nothing unique here.

I think that is what many people believe. However Marner's contract demands make it seem like he believes he was the driver of that line, and some fans believe that he was (with Tavares essentially just on the other side of a bunch of tap-ins). Maybe they would be right if he was putting up 94 points with Bozak/JVR (which is still nothing to sneeze at).

If Marner saw and valued himself like that line was a mutually beneficial relationship, this deal would probably be done by now... Because based on the contracts Dubas has reportedly offered, that's the way he values Marner.