Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - 1 week to camp ... nothing

[Nineteen67]

Well then. This is clearly dubas master plan.

Sign marner at 455 dec 1.

Then Boston is missed the whole season of mcavoy and Carlo.

Tampa has no point.
Jets have no Laine/Connor.

That s clearly the plan. Because grown adults make million dollar decisions based on people they have never met?

Good plan

According to the articles posted everything goes back to Joe Smith of the Atlantic who has one source saying agents are waiting on Marner. I would suspect agents and teams are keeping an eye on Marner and the Leafs, and vice-versa.

If agents and teams are not savvy enough to start negotiating before Marner signs, then good on them. I especially hope it negatively impacts Boston, Winnipeg and Calgary.

 

[BlueForever75]

Everybody should watch this video and Bob McKenzie as panel discuss this and how we got here.

McKenzie: Signing Tavares changed absolutely everything for Leafs

Matthews signing to me has no baring on the Marner deal. As much as Marner wants to think that he is as valuable as Matthews, state tax aside Marner isn't better then Kucherov. Simple. That is his comparable whether he likes it or not. If Marner isn't willing to accept an 8 year contract, he doesn't break 1o million per season.

If Kucherov is making 9.5 million per with less tax for 8 years, Marner on a same length deal taxes taken into consideration shouldn't make more then 10 million per. If he wants contracts of lesser term the $$$ amount keeps plummeting. If the next contract takes him right to UFA, he isn't worth anything more then 8 million per.

If the Leafs do anything other then that, they are stupid.

 

[dangomon]

Everybody should watch this video and Bob McKenzie as panel discuss this and how we got here.

McKenzie: Signing Tavares changed absolutely everything for Leafs

Signing Tavares changed everything for the Leafs. Fact. The Leafs now have two legitimate first-line centres. What a terrible situation to be in.

 

[Marshy]

Is Kucherov getting more take home at 9.5M than Marner at 10M? Sure he is. Guess what though...Kucherov is better. And he's done it more that one year of high end offensive production. Ferris and Paul want to say they are not interested in just being at Kucherov plus inflation? WTF? Kucherov's production is Marner production ... PLUS INFLATION!

Madness.

 

[hotpaws]

Matthews signing to me has no baring on the Marner deal. As much as Marner wants to think that he is as valuable as Matthews, state tax aside Marner isn't better then Kucherov. Simple. That is his comparable whether he likes it or not. If Marner isn't willing to accept an 8 year contract, he doesn't break 1o million per season.

If Kucherov is making 9.5 million per with less tax for 8 years, Marner on a same length deal taxes taken into consideration shouldn't make more then 10 million per. If he wants contracts of lesser term the $$$ amount keeps plummeting. If the next contract takes him right to UFA, he isn't worth anything more then 8 million per.

If the Leafs do anything other then that, they are stupid.

what you say may make sense but Mathews deal ignored his comparable's so i doubt Marner feels compelled to base his deal based on his comparable's

 

[MyBudJT]

Is Kucherov getting more take home at 9.5M than Marner at 10M? Sure he is. Guess what though...Kucherov is better. And he's done it more that one year of high end offensive production. Ferris and Paul want to say they are not interested in just being at Kucherov plus inflation? WTF? Kucherov's production is Marner production ... PLUS INFLATION!

Madness.

Kucherov is better now, but everything Marner has done at this point in his career has been far superior to Kucherov at the same age...

 

[Walshy7]

Sad But True

- Metallica

leafs sign a top player in the league, who gives a shit if other teams "overpay" or struggle to sign their RFA'S?

Nothing else matters
-also Metallica

 

[Legion34]

what you say may make sense but Mathews deal ignored his comparable's so i doubt Marner feels compelled to base his deal based on his comparable's

Except he is in line with every comparable on a 5 year deal?

 

[Marshy]

Kucherov is better now, but everything Marner has done at this point in his career has been far superior to Kucherov at the same age...

And what was Kucherov's 2nd contract?

 

[hotpaws]

Signing Tavares changed everything for the Leafs. Fact. The Leafs now have two legitimate first-line centres. What a terrible situation to be in.

we should have gone after Panarin as well since it would have given us another elite 1st line winger

 

[18leafsfan18]

You're talking about two different things. Context is important.

Marner's 40 game pace away from Tavares is being used to counteract the notion that he needs Tavares to produce points. Thats it. For the second half of Marner's career, he's produced at a 95 point pace, by the way.

I'm talking about posters using stats and context to prove a player is good, and disregarding the exact same points and context when talking about a player they deem bad.

All the points brought up are good points both ways, but in the simple example I showed posters claim "Marner doesn't need JT" also claim "Nylander needs Matthews".

Either both players benefit from their C or they don't, but don't argue one does benefit and one doesn't.

That was just an example, then you brought up another glaring example. (Marner Pace vs Matthews Pace).

2/3 of that with pace for Marner was with Tavares.

I'm not bashing Marner, just want people to be fair in their comparisons, just be upfront with everything instead of nitpicking.

I haven't seen anyone say that Matthews' goal and point pace mean nothing... but people have (myself included) raised the valueable point that there is an inherent value in being able to stay healthy and play games. When asking who the better player is, it is no doubt Matthews. When asking who will be more important to the Toronto Maple Leafs, there is some debate... since Matthews has shown a history of being injured, and another elite player in Marner has remained healthy his whole career (minus a bout of Mono). On that regard, there is a valid argument that Marner should earn similar money to Matthews.

Again, context is important....

Matthews played more games over his ELC then McDavid and Eichel. Young guys can get hurt, especially when they play against the boards etc. Marner plays a different game then Matthews, where injuries are much less likely.

Matthews isn't injury prone. IMO.

Lastly, Nylander has played approximately 60-70 NHL games away from Auston Matthews. How isn't there a significant sample size away from Matthews?

Your counting last season that we all know he wasn't going to produce at his regular rate (Starting late) and Babcock basically punished him most of the season on the 3rd line.

 

[hotpaws]

Except he is in line with every comparable on a 5 year deal?

no he's not , people had to go back 10 plus years to Malkin to find anyone even remotely comparable to what he signed for

 

[supermann_98]

What's interesting to me is that Shanny back when he came out last year and said that it was his hope that players would be willing to play for less than the absolute max they could get (some will refer to it as "the players should take a discount" speech) - now Shanny is reportedly (allegedly?) involved in the Marner talks and there is speculation he is the point man on the negotiations.

Shanny, if the rumours are true - won't be setting any RFA market for the rest of the high profile RFAs. He has told us he won't be. Looks like quite a few RFA's won't start the year with their teams.

Some of those RFA’s may want to have a discussion with their agents if they start missing paycheques because a guy on another team hasn’t signed yet.

Should be interesting to see who breaks the stalemate, but if the regular season starts without all the top 5-10 unsigned RFA’s it would be a joke and a black eye to the league, the greedy players/agents, and the sham of a hard salary cap.

 

[MyBudJT]

And what was Kucherov's 2nd contract?

3 years @ 4.77M after a 30G 66 point U23 (year old) season.

Thats much closer in line to what Nylander should have got, than Marner.

 

[DarkKnight]

Funny how certain things are left out of posts.

Nitpick city on this forum.

Anything to prove a point.

Sort of like dismissing the progress of a SECOND YEAR PRO to extrapolate future potential. You guys act like we're cherry picking a small subset for a 10 year guy to tilt a perspective, when all we've done is show that Marner was reaching his potential in the SECOND HALF of HIS SECOND year. Go look at ever hall of famer, you might note progress from their rookie year, it's weird like that sport. You act like it's disingenuous to point to a young pro blossoming. OMG the mis-representation you must endure on here.

 

[Legion34]

no he's not , people had to go back 10 plus years to Malkin to find anyone even remotely comparable to what he signed for

Malkin signed for more?

Look at hockey reference. He has outscored every major player in the past 10 years.

Every player who scored remotely like
Matthews got between 13.85 and 16.54 percent

The one who got 13.85 is 57 pt Rick Nash.

He is clearly in line with historical comparables.

They just went through a patch where players weren’t nearly as good as him.

Better players got more. Worse players got less

 

[Marshy]

Some of those RFA’s may want to have a discussion with their agents if they start missing paycheques because a guy on another team hasn’t signed yet.

Should be interesting to see who breaks the stalemate, but if the regular season starts without all the top 5-10 unsigned RFA’s it would be a joke and a black eye to the league, the greedy players/agents, and the sham of a hard salary cap.

As much as I don't want to think about it it seems we are heading for a labour stoppage next year. The greed is out of hand and only a massive correction in the CBA can reel it back in.

 

[Confucius]

Agreed GMs would love to go and get these guys signed no question, but Player agents are slow rolling this because of the long term benefit to their clients.

The Matthew's contract sent shock waves through the NHL GM community as it altered the market for RFA signings from 8 year terms coming out of ELC (like McDavid, Eichel, Draisaitl etc) to now top dollar AAV for just 5 years.

Now Marner is using that contract to leverage he also gets top $$ for as few years as possible (protecting their UFA years) for their next deal.

So its in the best interest of all RFA currently to allow Marner to reset the market further for their own benefits as the numbers being tossed out for Mitch at $10.5-$11 mil X 5 years.

Why would a guy like Brayden Point sign for $8-8.5 X 8 years only to see Marner a comparable get +$10 mil for 3 years less term commitment? Let Marner go first just like Mitch allowed Matthews to sign first (by saying he wants to go 3rd among Leafs 3 Amigos) because his agent knew Matthews contract could only raise the bar from him?

These other RFA have greater leverage as Marner is a better comparable for themselves than Matthews contract for a franchise #1C was and only Marner seems to be leveraging that deal to get his next deal against Dubas.

Report: Agents await Marner to set market

Negotiations between the Toronto Maple Leafs and restricted free agent Mitch Marner are being watched closely by agents around the NHL this summer. According to Joe Smith of The Athletic, agents are waiting for Marner to sign with the Maple Leafs and set their market before pursuing deals for their RFA clients.

TSN.ca Staff

https://www.tsn.ca/report-nhl-agent...fs-f-mitch-marner-to-set-rfa-market-1.1344031

In that case there are going to be quite a few unemployed RFA's this season.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Sort of like dismissing the progress of a SECOND YEAR PRO to extrapolate future potential. You guys act like we're cherry picking a small subset for a 10 year guy to tilt a perspective, when all we've done is show that Marner was reaching his potential in the SECOND HALF of HIS SECOND year. Go look at ever hall of famer, you might note progress from their rookie year, it's weird like that sport. You act like it's disingenuous to point to a young pro blossoming. OMG the mis-representation you must endure on here.

I'm not denying anything Marner did, posters scream for context, until it disproves their point. Then the context doesn't actually matter.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Cool thread, wish there were more just like this one.

 

[supermann_98]

no he's not , people had to go back 10 plus years to Malkin to find anyone even remotely comparable to what he signed for

I don’t know why everyone continues to get worked up about the Matthews contract. Is he overpaid? Yes. Did Dubas basically give him an open cheque book and buy only one year of UFA while walking him right to UFA status? Also yes.

The fact is that if he got to RFA the Coyotes would have given him an offer sheet that start with 14, and we would’ve had no choice but to match it. The Matthews contract is not great, but for Mitch to point at that contract and say he deserves the same is just pure greed and he and his dad can go pound sand. Let him go play in Switzerland for 500k if he’s not willing to lower his asking price for his hometown team.

 

[Marshy]

3 years @ 4.77M after a 30G 66 point U23 (year old) season.

Thats much closer in line to what Nylander should have got, than Marner.

What does a 3 year bridge with inflation look like for Mitch? $7.5M would be close to 50% more ...sound fair?

 

[MyBudJT]

I'm talking about posters using stats and context to prove a player is good, and disregarding the exact same points and context when talking about a player they deem bad.

All the points brought up are good points both ways, but in the simple example I showed posters claim "Marner doesn't need JT" also claim "Nylander needs Matthews".

Either both players benefit from their C or they don't, but don't argue one does benefit and one doesn't.

That was just an example, then you brought up another glaring example. (Marner Pace vs Matthews Pace).

2/3 of that with pace for Marner was with Tavares.

I'm not bashing Marner, just want people to be fair in their comparisons, just be upfront with everything instead of nitpicking.



Matthews played more games over his ELC then McDavid and Eichel. Young guys can get hurt, especially when they play against the boards etc. Marner plays a different game then Matthews, where injuries are much less likely.

Matthews isn't injury prone. IMO.



Your counting last season that we all know he wasn't going to produce at his regular rate (Starting late) and Babcock basically punished him most of the season on the 3rd line.

They're not the exact ssame points and context though....

There is rationale reasons and numbers that show "Marner doesn't need JT" and "Nylander needs Matthews".

I didn't bring up Marner's pace vs Matthews' pace... you did.

Matthews also has a larger injury history than McDavid and Eicher PRIOR to the NHL. Eichel and McDavid didn't get knocked out for several games on a typical hit (Trouba hit). I also think that Matthews was battling more injuries than we know this season (which is only a positive, just imagine what he can do if/when healthy)... I met a person on the Leafs medical staff this summer, and he was political and didn't want to talk much leafs stuff, but one thing he did say was "I'd like to see what Matthews can do when healthy".

 

[DarkKnight]

I'm not denying anything Marner did, posters scream for context, until it disproves their point. Then the context doesn't actually matter.

You took issue with pointing out Marner had 61 points in his last 50 games heading into last season. The fact he was a second year pro- you expect natural progression- not a regression the next year, is context.

Were people surprised at what Marner did last year? I wasn't, given he was growing as a player and he had a bonafide stud C man.

Marner had a great rookie season, the beginning of his second year Babcock was pushing him to develop a 200 foot game, short term punishing for long term payoff. The second half of that year he put it together, and there was nothing to suggest the progress had peaked....and it didn't. I'd add it isn't just points, look at the puck hound, takeaways, emergence on the PK. Natural progress, with that heart, you're a fool to bet against.

 

[MyBudJT]

What does a 3 year bridge with inflation look like for Mitch? $7.5M would be close to 50% more ...sound fair?

Not really, I'd value Marner on a 1 year deal to be about 7.5M to be honest. 7.5M for a 90+ point player would be a steal... considering people here would be happy if 7M Nylander gets 70 points.