Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - 1 week to camp ... nothing

[4thline]

OK thanks.

Isn't timing a factor though? I'm not sure when Dermott or Hyman return, but I'm guessing its not game 1, or possibly not October even.

Marner's replacement of $675 k would be the only saving if Marner signs early season (i.e., sooner versus later). IF we are talking about Marner get signed reasonably soon and not missing a chunk of the season, then we'd have about $8.3 m (approx) available unless we go with a 22-man roster. I think this is correct, but of course, I'm open to feedback.

Dermott and Hyman can go on LTIR freeing up the space for their replacements on the roster. The timing will be important but we shouldn't ever have Dermott + Hyman + say Wilson+ Holl on the active roster at the same time.

Best way to do it is calculating what we can afford with Dermott/Hyman healthy as part of a 22-23 man roster - if we can afford it healthy we can afford it with cheaper LTIR replacements

 

[DarkKnight]

I think that is what many people believe. However Marner's contract demands make it seem like he believes he was the driver of that line, and some fans believe that he was (with Tavares essentially just on the other side of a bunch of tap-ins). Maybe they would be right if he was putting up 94 points with Bozak/JVR (which is still nothing to sneeze at).

If Marner saw and valued himself like that line was a mutually beneficial relationship, this deal would probably be done by now... Because based on the contracts Dubas has reportedly offered, that's the way he values Marner.

Marner's contract demands are nothing more than the effect of the previous Dubas over pays, including JT(although we all accept you over pay a UFA). People lose the plot the minute they view Marner in a vacuum. Team comparables have set the stage, not what TB or Carolina have done.

 

[Notsince67]

Marner did nothing for Kadri's production, did nothing for JVR's production either. JVR produced playing with Bozak and Kessel prior to Marner at the same pace if not injured.

Trying to even put Marner in a sentence with JT is just plain stupid. JT has proven time and time again that he makes the players around him better not the other way around.

Proof for this only needs to go back to last season when he took Marner who has been a 60+ pt player to 90+pts, and Hyman to becoming a legit winger with almost 20 goals and 45 points. Both career highs.

But hang on......it was Marner that boosted both Tavares and Hyman!!!! Right.

Your take on this is horrible. Look at Tavares' historical ev production. Look at his PP production. Tavares had a one time blip upwards on the pp on his last year with the isles. It was no where near sustainable. This kind of stuff has been dealt with time and time again yet you still choose not to learn how to analyse this stuff despite all the help here. Time to stop citing stats you clearly know nothing about. 28 year old players rarely improve their skill level. Open your eyes

 

[Gary Nylund]

uhh.. Keller isn't a comparable for Nylander, Rantanen or Point.

More excuses.

 

[WillNy29]

Marner's contract demands are nothing more than the effect of the previous Dubas over pays, including JT(although we all accept you over pay a UFA). People lose the plot the minute they view Marner in a vacuum. Team comparables have set the stage, not what TB or Carolina have done.

So if they traded him would his demand come down based on team comparables on another team? I'm sorry I don't buy this

 

[justafan22]

More excuses.

lmao

 

[IPS]

Your take on this is horrible. Look at Tavares' historical ev production. Look at his PP production. Tavares had a one time blip upwards on the pp on his last year with the isles. It was no where near sustainable. This kind of stuff has been dealt with time and time again yet you still choose not to learn how to analyse this stuff despite all the help here. Time to stop citing stats you clearly know nothing about. 28 year old players rarely improve their skill level. Open your eyes

You should take a look around the league and see how much other star player's ES production has shot up.

With the goalie changes, 3 on 3 OT, and other minor changes, even strength scoring has shot up significantly.

Tavares was 7th in the league in even strength points from 2014 - 2018. He's no stranger to being one of the best ES scorers in the league.

Don't let this little tidbit get in the way of your agenda though

 

[18leafsfan18]

Pretty much.

You're not comparing apples to apples, though.

Marner has shown a history of producing at a 90+ point pace over a significant sample away from JT. He has also shown that he can be a line driver on multiple lines. Nylander has not.

Based on 20 games for Nylander right ?

 

[18leafsfan18]

TOI and offensive usage is the main driver of production.

Saying Nylander won't hit 60 points without Matthews when he's being used on the 3rd line seeing minimal PP time says absolutely nothing. I don't expect MyBudJT to go here though.

Doesn't fit the narrative so it's disregarded.

 

[81Leafs50]

-JT got overpaid as a ufa
-AM gets overpaid for different reasons

and the guy who out performed both of them shouldn't get paid for um reasons , until of course he too gets overpaid and you'll then come on here rewriting history like you're doing with Willie's negotiations

it was widely reported Dubas was stuck at 6m per on a 7/8 yr deal and Kyper also reported a few weeks before he signed the Leafs offered 4 years at under 20m but closer to 4m per but hey lets ignore all the reports and make up fairy tales so the Dube doesn't look like he's a *****

Marner has not outplayed or outperformed anyone. PERIOD.

ONE good season means nothing.

 

[MyBudJT]

Based on 20 games for Nylander right ?

Based on 60+ games for Nylander...

 

[JayfromNB1219]

this is so bad, you really think Mitch coming off a 90 point season, needs to sign a prove it contract lol, while Dubas gave 7 million for 6 years for Nylander, and 5 years to Auston who has yet to score 75 points like what is going on? its even more funny that the contract is only for 7.5 that is one ridiculous take wow, and than you want to put Marner on another line to prove he can drive a line, do you not want the leafs to put the best lines possible on the ice to win hockey games?, or you want something that may not work to prove his worth at the expense of losing games I dont get this at all, thought the game was about trying to win, not prove worth for a contract

they aren't mutually exclusive things...yes if Marner wants Matthews money he shouldn't be riding coattails to Johnny T, and yes I am all for icing the best lines oyu can...move Marner around the line up...against the good teams he lines up with Tavares to make one of the top 5 lines in the league (doesn't matter who the other winger is) against the bottom feeders let him drive his own line...its a proven fact you can put any scrub wingers on Tavares line and they will make out ok...look at what he did with the isles crop of "talented wingers" lmao when you can make Matt Moulson a 50 pt player I would say that's some real bonafides.

Let's see what Marner can do with Kerfoot and whomever the leafs choose to play the other wing on that line...the regular season is a time for experimentation after all

 

[Duke Silver]

This is actually untrue.

E. Staal got 10.23% and Heatley got 11.54% on 3-year deals. Meier was a considerably worse player than Kucherov was and got 7.36 on a 4-year deal that had a similar idea of bridging to the year before UFA. Also, Kucherov was essentially handcuffed into that deal, so using it as a comparable is kinda questionable. In reality, you're not going to find a perfect 3-year bridge comparable because they are so rare, so you have to work off of other comparables and adjust.

I should have said "recent precedent". You had to reach back all the way to 2006 for those. The league's approach to contract structures has changed markedly since then. The highest since 2010 was Kucherov's 6.5% on a 0.71 ELC ppg.

Meier is obviously going to get a higher % of cap on a 4-year deal than Kucherov is going to get on a 3-year deal.

Kucherov faced the same restrictions that all other RFAs face when it comes to their negotiating power. You can't just throw that out because Tampa played hardball. It injects way too much subjectivity.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Dermott and Hyman can go on LTIR freeing up the space for their replacements on the roster. The timing will be important but we shouldn't ever have Dermott + Hyman + say Wilson+ Holl on the active roster at the same time.

Best way to do it is calculating what we can afford with Dermott/Hyman healthy as part of a 22-23 man roster - if we can afford it healthy we can afford it with cheaper LTIR replacements

Ya, agreed. I'm just thinking about how much cap space we have to work with and getting Marner signed as soon as possible (early in season in the worst case).

 

[18leafsfan18]

I would argue JT/Marner was a mutually beneficial relationship. Also, good wingers player with good centers, there is nothing unique here.

Again, not arguing JT and Marner being mutually beneficial. Stats prove otherwise, but arguments can be made on both sides I suppose.

Good wingers play with good Centers, and Good Centers help those wingers get more points (Nylander and Marner's case).

Not sure why you are arguing, you are agreeing with my point.

 

[Marshy]

No, I'm saying that Marner on a 1 year deal should have a higher salary than Nylander's 7 mil AAV. Marner next season should be better than Nylander in any of his 5 remaining years at 7 mil IMHO.

You can't compare 1 year and 6 year AAV.s One of those deals bought UFA years. I mean c'mon I thought this stuff was basic logic here.

 

[MyBudJT]

You can't compare 1 year and 6 year AAV.s One of those deals bought UFA years. I mean c'mon I thought this stuff was basic logic here.

I think you missed what I was saying...

 

[Marshy]

I think you missed what I was saying...

You're saying Marner on a hypothetical 1 year deal is worth more than 7M because Nylander has 7M AAV on his 6 year deal. Where did I misunderstand?

 

[4thline]

Marner's contract demands are nothing more than the effect of the previous Dubas over pays, including JT(although we all accept you over pay a UFA). People lose the plot the minute they view Marner in a vacuum. Team comparables have set the stage, not what TB or Carolina have done.

Even if you accept the overpays and apply them to Marner it doesn't match some of the rumoured asks. Nylander at 300-500k high and Matthews at 600k-1m high is 5.5-7.5% premiums.

Based on Kane as a comparable at 9 x 5, give him the same premium and that's 9.675 - not Matthews money.

 

[Legion34]

I should have said "recent precedent". You had to reach back all the way to 2006 for those. The league's approach to contract structures has changed markedly since then. The highest since 2010 was Kucherov's 6.5% on a 0.71 ELC ppg.

Meier is obviously going to get a higher % of cap on a 4-year deal than Kucherov is going to get on a 3-year deal.

Kucherov faced the same restrictions that all other RFAs face when it comes to their negotiating power. You can't just throw that out because Tampa played hardball. It injects way too much subjectivity.

Because that’s how Far back you have to reach to find comparable players? That’s not a bad thing?

 

[18leafsfan18]

Based on 60+ games for Nylander...

Including last season, where he stared in December, and never got up to speed, and was given 3rd line minutes.

No player would achieve up to their abilities in those conditions. That's a pretty weak argument to stand on.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I mean....at least compare apples to apples. If Nylander signs a 1 year contract last year instead of 6 years he's getting nowhere close to 7M AAV. Try about 4M.

I guess I'm not the only one who thinks the nitpicking is getting a bit out of hand.

 

[Notsince67]

You should take a look around the league and see how much other star player's ES production has shot up.

With the goalie changes, 3 on 3 OT, and other minor changes, even strength scoring has shot up significantly.

Tavares was 7th in the league in even strength points from 2014 - 2018. He's no stranger to being one of the best ES scorers in the league.

Don't let this little tidbit get in the way of your agenda though

My agenda? Tavares improved EV p/60 and g/60 more than Marner did. I dont know what you are looking at.

 

[4thline]

I should have said "recent precedent". You had to reach back all the way to 2006 for those. The league's approach to contract structures has changed markedly since then. The highest since 2010 was Kucherov's 6.5% on a 0.71 ELC ppg.
.

You're forgetting Panarin's ~8ish % 2 year deal also O'reilly @ 7.78 x 2 (6.34m) (hadn't cracked 60 points, one season above 30)

And neither Panarin nor Kucherov had the pedigree of Marner at time of signing

 

[MyBudJT]

You're saying Marner on a hypothetical 1 year deal is worth more than 7M because Nylander has 7M AAV on his 6 year deal. Where did I misunderstand?

I didn't say he's worth more BECAUSE of Nylander's contract... I said it will likely be a better value than Nylander on any year of his contract.

I mean....at least compare apples to apples. If Nylander signs a 1 year contract last year instead of 6 years he's getting nowhere close to 7M AAV. Try about 4M.

You clearly misunderstood my post.