Prospect Info: Marlies & Prospect Discussion

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ELCs have to be two-way [CBA 9.4] and (I believe) the current cap is $82,500 in the minors
Plus up to 90kish in signing bonuses, so 170 baseline for a zero nhl game season, guaranteed.

Could also promise him an 8 game tryout which would give him 10% of the year at NHL money (80kish) and have a 25k 5gp bonus.

So if we really wanted him over now could put 270k in his pocket for a marlies season (his worst case) with 950k upside if he sticks. Signing now also starts to burn elc years which is to his benefit
 
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Can they give him a 500k signing bonus included in the contract
Not a signing bonus, but I believe they could put a games played bonus at something like 10-15 games for several hundred k, but

That bonus comes out his 950k ELC max, not on top of it
I don't know the cap implications
 
Out of all of the prospects, Grebs is probably the most likely to make the team next year.

He will also sign the elc just to start burning years.
 
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That is a lot lower than I expected

The problem withe Leafs is the number of good prospects. Basically depth and no prospects outside of Niemela on the back end.

I am fine with this because I am looking at number of almost certain nhlers who are practically ready right now. And the forward group look good.
 
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That is a lot lower than I expected

Preview from the article and Cowan’s report.

I debated ranking the Toronto Maple Leafs’ pool a few spots higher in this year’s countdown on depth, but after graduating Matthew Knies, Nick Robertson and Joseph Woll, and making just three picks in the 2023 draft (less than their allotted seven picks for the third straight year), their system has taken a hit.


Still, for what it lacks in premium talent, it does make up for in more depth than the other teams in this range. It’s also helped by a pair of goalies who look like they might be late-round finds.


2023 prospect pool rank: No. 18 (change: -10)


1. Easton Cowan, C/LW, 18 (London Knights)


Cowan is a standout skater who buzzes around the ice, works and plays hard, and thrives on the penalty kill (one half of the best PK duo in the OHL with the Philadelphia Flyers’ Denver Barkey). He emerged as an important player for a strong Knights team (especially in the playoffs where London’s first line — Cowan, Barkey and Seattle Kraken prospect Ryan Winterton — was relentless) last year and has taken another big step forward as one of the better and more productive forwards in the OHL this year.


He plays a fast, clever, determined and consistent 200-foot game, hunting pucks, winning races and then making little skill plays when opportunities or openings in coverage present themselves. He takes or plays pucks into the middle, thrives in give-and-gos playing off of his linemate, supports play defensively, and can play in a haze/rush but has also shown the ability to use and elevate his linemates. He does a good job holding pucks around sticks at speed. He’s a heart-and-soul guy who I’m confident will take his career as far as it can go. He’ll regularly gain a step on junior defenders and while his effort can sometimes be ineffectively deployed (he’s got work to do on his routes and decisions on and off the puck), he’s an easy player to like and thrives on instinct more often than it burns him.


He does play with a hunch in his stride, which impacts his game (both positively and negatively). On one hand, he’s always engaged and on his toes because he never straightens up his stance and comes to a standstill, and he’s agile on his first cut/change of direction (less so on his second because of the commitment required). On the other, when he really commits to a position into contact or a reach-in, it can put him off-balance and push him around at his size.


I had a good chat with Knights assistant general manager Rob Simpson about Cowan recently. Here’s some of what he had to say about the player/his rise:


“If you looked at his point production with Denver in the playoffs, they’re right up there with some of the best names at 17 like Corey Perry, Max Domi, Bo Horvat, Robert Thomas. Like there were some really high-level names up there.”


“I think he needs to mature his game in the sense where now he’s making a lot of plays on the ice and at times he has to start to understand how that game’s going to translate to the professional ranks and hopefully the Toronto Maple Leafs. There’s times where you’re going to be able to make a play and there’s times where you’ve got to play it safe because the D are so much better and their sticks are so much better. That kind of comes naturally with giving them some freedom to make plays and make mistakes so that you can actually teach them and help them understand that some players can make that play and some can’t. That’s one thing that he’s working through now because he has so many puck touches in a game and you’re going to make good puck touches and you’re going to make some mistakes. So he just needs to keep learning how to read when the play is there and when it’s not.”
 
Preview from the article and Cowan’s report.
I'm surprised he knocked us down 10 spots in the rankings. Sure, Knies graduated, but Cowan has been a revelation, and both Grebyenkin and Hildeby have taken serious steps forward. Hoping we see a number make the Leafs over the next two years, and we make a number of solid picks this year to restock the prospect cupboard.
 
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A bit surprised to see Grebyonkin and Tverberg ranked where they are, but I do also agree with the 2nd tier they are in. I think our pool is better than 29th, but I also obviously haven't read the rest of the pools, so maybe 29th makes sense. I mean I'm seeing 6 NHL players alone in the top 10 which I'd think is pretty good.

And where things are, NHL players are great, that is what this team needs. But alas, people who don't follow prospects (I don't blame someone if they don't, it's a lot of work and can be very uninteresting) will now hear one talking head go (I can hear it in Hayes' voice) "Well, just recently they were ranked 29th" and now the "cupboards are bare we are doomed" crowd will continue to shout in full force.

The pool isn't top notch, but how many contending teams' are? For a contending team I think the pool is good but not great. But not dismal like the woe is me narrative can be.
 
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that nick rob season is still nuts
First and last time I completely bought into a players hype

I thought we had debrincat 2.0 for sure. It looked like 35 goals was pretty almost a guarantee with that wicked shot.

He has time and he is looking solid right now, but I thought with the season he had he would’ve already been a superstar lol

That experience has made me cautious with knies and Cowan and very doubtful of minten and others like tverberg and niemela. I see promising aspects and potential in them, but I’m not gonna jump the gun like I did for Robertson
 
First and last time I completely bought into a players hype

I thought we had debrincat 2.0 for sure. It looked like 35 goals was pretty almost a guarantee with that wicked shot.

He has time and he is looking solid right now, but I thought with the season he had he would’ve already been a superstar lol

That experience has made me cautious with knies and Cowan and very doubtful of minten and others like tverberg and niemela. I see promising aspects and potential in them, but I’m not gonna jump the gun like I did for Robertson

In fairness Robertson's injuries have slowed his progress

Like Robertson, though, Cowan's ability to make the Leafs next year depends on his strength and if he can hold his own at that level.
 


That is a lot lower than I expected

Same, but in a way it's fair in that we have a lot of guys at the top that the hockey world isn't "sure" on- right now it's kind of a Schrodingers box where Wheeler is clearly ranking us is if the cat is dead (the top guys can't be given the benefit of the doubt)

One one hand Cowan is producing like a Johnston/Fabbri/Debrincat/Konecny. With his development track you could make a case that he projects as a safe bet to be a top 9 player with clear 1st line upside. On the other, so are several other late 1st round prospects, maybe the OHL is weak this year?

On one hand Minten cracked an NHL roster out of camp, captained the Canadian WJC's, is showing as a stud two way C in Saskatoon. On the other he's a 2nd round pick that outside of the last 17 games has never been a star WHLer, who's skillset and production was looking more like Kampf then a Jenner or better.

On one hand Grebyonkin's last to seasons are putting into elite company, and he's looking pretty solidly like a Buchnevich level prospect. On the other- Russia, lots of points against bad teams, etc.

One one hand Tverberg is well ahead of where Hyman/Moore were at the same age. On the other, both succeeded by being late bloomers.


The scout that sees Konecny, Jenner, Buchnevich, and Hyman/Moore. doesn't rank us 28th. But it's fair not to give them that credit yet.

Edit- and now having read his ranking it makes sense. If you see Minten as a 4C, Cowan only marginally higher upside and aren't sold on Greb/Tverberg at all... it's a 28th ranked pool.
 
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First and last time I completely bought into a players hype

I thought we had debrincat 2.0 for sure. It looked like 35 goals was pretty almost a guarantee with that wicked shot.

He has time and he is looking solid right now, but I thought with the season he had he would’ve already been a superstar lol

That experience has made me cautious with knies and Cowan and very doubtful of minten and others like tverberg and niemela. I see promising aspects and potential in them, but I’m not gonna jump the gun like I did for Robertson

In fairness Robertson's injuries have slowed his progress

Like Robertson, though, Cowan's ability to make the Leafs next year depends on his strength and if he can hold his own at that level.

I forget who brought this up but his (Robertson's) division that year was pretty weak, even by OHL standards, might have aided in him doing what he did
 
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First and last time I completely bought into a players hype

I thought we had debrincat 2.0 for sure. It looked like 35 goals was pretty almost a guarantee with that wicked shot.

He has time and he is looking solid right now, but I thought with the season he had he would’ve already been a superstar lol

That experience has made me cautious with knies and Cowan and very doubtful of minten and others like tverberg and niemela. I see promising aspects and potential in them, but I’m not gonna jump the gun like I did for Robertson
I get this. It can be tough with Jr, college and the European leagues. I've always found the AHL an interesting barometer for forwards points wise. For example Connor Brown, I was skeptical about his 128 point jr season on a stacked team and was intrigued by what he would do on the Marlies. 61 points his first season, made be feel a lot better about his prospects of becoming a useful NHL player.

Mikhail Abramov was another player I was excited for but wanted to see how he would fare in the AHL. While still fairly young, his numbers are pedestrian in the AHL. But this is why I'm excited about Tverberg. His 7 games at the end of last season didn't produce anything but now he's a point per game player while also sporting other good attributes.
 
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Realistic ideal word
We have a bunch of middle six wingers
Robbie. Knies. Cowan. Greb. Tverberg.

Minten is a 3c.


Niemela is a 3rd pair pp2 who can give safe minutes at 5 on 5.

Really need c and D.
 
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Wheeler ranked Hirvonen ahead of Grebyonkin which I definitely don't agree with

Wheeler should definitely not be used as a credible source when it comes to prospects.

There are a lot of great guys in this thread and on Twitter that post regular prospect updates and I feel they're very informative.
 
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