Blue Jays Discussion: Manoah gets the Halladay treatment (optioned to rookie-ball to try and fix him)
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I mean, they've connected on most of their big moves?
2023
- Bassitt looks great.
- Kiermaier and Belt have both been excellent signings.
- the Teoscar trade looks very solid as he's fallen off a cliff and Swanson has been excellent.
2022
- the Chapman trade has been highway robbery.
- Gausman might be the best FA pitcher signing in baseball in the past few years.
- Merrifield acquired mid-season for nothing has been a steal.
2021
- Ray won the Cy Young.
- Semien had an MVP-level season.
- Springer has been good although injuries have been a problem.
Really the only significant moves that look questionable over the past 3 years are the Varsho trade (and returns are very early there) and the Kikuchi signing, but Kikuchi has actually been good value this year. And the Mitch White deal looks like a stinker.
trellaine201
Registered User
phillipmike
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- Oct 27, 2009
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You guys will never guess which team has the 2nd worst relief pitching according to FG WAR.
Seath The Scaleless
Paledrake
Lol that's crazy! And here I thought the team with the 4th best relief pitching was the biggest surprise.
Here's something I find kind of interesting that's probably really boring to normal people:
Jays pitchers have the 7th best ERA in the league at 3.78. Really solid.
But they also have the 20th best FIP in the league at 4.35. Really... meh.
The intent with FIP is to strip out defense and luck and isolate for only what the pitcher controls. So this basically suggests that the Jays have either had fantastic defense or been really lucky. But Fangraphs's defensive component of WAR just has the Jays at a +2, good for 11th in the league.
DRS has them as the runaway leader at +34 (next best is the Rays at +21... the Jays outfield alone is +21!). UZR has them at +16.9, which is 2nd in baseball to the Brewers.
I don't know where I'm going with this, but I find it fascinating. It seems like two stats fit in nicely with the ERA/FIP disparity to suggest the Jays pitchers are ok but have a fantastic defense supporting them (and I think the eye test supports this argument for sure) while the third suggests the whole team is mediocre at run prevention but has gotten super lucky.
Anyway... I don't know. It's weird.
Jays pitchers have the 7th best ERA in the league at 3.78. Really solid.
But they also have the 20th best FIP in the league at 4.35. Really... meh.
The intent with FIP is to strip out defense and luck and isolate for only what the pitcher controls. So this basically suggests that the Jays have either had fantastic defense or been really lucky. But Fangraphs's defensive component of WAR just has the Jays at a +2, good for 11th in the league.
DRS has them as the runaway leader at +34 (next best is the Rays at +21... the Jays outfield alone is +21!). UZR has them at +16.9, which is 2nd in baseball to the Brewers.
I don't know where I'm going with this, but I find it fascinating. It seems like two stats fit in nicely with the ERA/FIP disparity to suggest the Jays pitchers are ok but have a fantastic defense supporting them (and I think the eye test supports this argument for sure) while the third suggests the whole team is mediocre at run prevention but has gotten super lucky.
Anyway... I don't know. It's weird.
Fangraphs' defensive stats seem to be heavily weighted towards OAA, which ignores a lot of the defensive elements (especially for outfielders)
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
It seems like the HR/9 is the biggest culprit inflating the Jays' FIP. We've gotten fairly lucky for the most part as it seems like the bulk of those HRs have come with no men on base (looking at Kikuchi and Bassitt). Manoah and to a lesser extent some relievers (Bass, Richards, Swanson) have also inflated our BBs, but we also have one of the best pitching staffs when it comes to suppressing hits.
Arias has got to know that this positional blunder is going to end poorly. Life at 1B sucks sometimes but man if the throw is offline, you either stretch sideways or jump up.
Honestly, any stat that says we aren't great defensively is just wrong. This is probably the best defensive Jays team since the Alomar/White WS teams. It's great on paper, it looks great to the eye test, and most defensive metrics confirm it's great.
We have 3 CFs playing in the outfield, Gold Glovers at both infield corners, Bichette has sorted his throwing and has made 1 error in his last 50 games. Only weak spot is throwing out runners.
And that's clearly helping the pitchers. And I'd definitely lean into thinking we've had average pitching overall helped out by great defense.
Keep in mind that the pitching probably 'feels' better than the numbers as well because Berrios and Bassitt had terrible starts that seem very far away now but still play into those numbers and because Manoah feels like a very bad isolated event. 4 of the 5 rotation spots have been solid for ~50 games now and the bullpen has been good if not spectacular.
I think their defensive value for OF includes OAA and incorporates the throwing portion of UZR, so I don't think there's a lot that they're missing.
Suntouchable13
Registered User
Lol, why did we have to endure a full year of Tapia last year when he only lasted 2 months in Boston before they got sick of him?
f*** me, I still can't believe we gave Tapia 433 plate appearances last year on a team with WS aspirations. It was annoying at the time but in retrospect it seems absurd.
People talk about the defensive improvement from moving on from Hernandez and Gurriel, but Tapia played more in the OF than Gurriel last year and only a bit less than Teoscar. And he was every bit as bad as them without contributing anything offensively.
People talk about the defensive improvement from moving on from Hernandez and Gurriel, but Tapia played more in the OF than Gurriel last year and only a bit less than Teoscar. And he was every bit as bad as them without contributing anything offensively.
They dumped Tapia for the infield version of Tapia.
Honestly, by this time last year Tapia was on a bit of a roll and ended up being a key part of the team for the next couple of months. If they cut him in early May they definitely would have been worse for it given what he did in June and July.
Seath The Scaleless
Paledrake
Wish Tapia and Zimmer formed one player last year with Tapia's blah offense that got hot sometimes and Zimmer's decent defense. Instead, we had a defensive tire fire and probably the worst hitter I've seen in a while. Zimmer only got 101 PA but felt way more than that
Max pain watching those two lol
Max pain watching those two lol
TheBeastCoast
Registered User
TheBeastCoast
Registered User
It is Elly De La Cruz day. Must be why HF is crashing.
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
Optimistic about Bowden. Feel like there's some Happ qualities to his game.
I'm really glad they're going with the upside play rather than just using filler (Thompson, Thornton, Hatch).
If they sent Manoah all the way back to the complex league I'm assuming they saw/found something they really didn't like.
Brutal. Still stand by something needing to be done though.
Brutal. Still stand by something needing to be done though.
tmlms13
Registered User
It's because Dunedin is the Blue Jays facilities and Blue Jays development staff can work with him in one place, only travel to games where he is pitching. Way better off going there.
In AAA or AA he is a regular team player and is riding a bus for Buffalo or New Hampshire where they can never actually work on anything.
It's like if the Leafs wanted to send someone down do you go to the Newfoundland Growlers in the ECHL or the Ford Performance Center in Etobicoke.
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Eyedea
The Legend Continues
100% this is not an issue that can be fixed through reps at a lower level (AAA). This is something they need to properly evaluate and correct through simulated events without further destroying his confidence. Mechanics, release points, managing the pitch clock, but most importantly a mental reset.
Certainly seems that way. My first thought was "oh they're completely tearing down and rebuilding his game."
If they just thought it was a mental hiccup he probably doesn't go past AAA and starts there for a few weeks. But this? Safe to say he's probably gone for the rest of the season?
That's nuts. Most of us knew it was bad but not that dire.
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